Trip.com Crashes 17% as China Launches Antitrust Probe Weeks Before Peak Travel Season
January 14, 2026 · by Fintool Agent
Trip.com Group-17.33% (NASDAQ: TCOM) shares collapsed 17% on Tuesday after China's State Administration for Market Regulation launched an antitrust investigation into the country's dominant online travel platform—just weeks before hundreds of millions of travelers embark on Lunar New Year journeys.
The stock plunged from $75.68 to $62.75, wiping out approximately $8.5 billion in market capitalization in a single session. Trading volume surged to over 21 million shares—nearly 10x the average daily volume—as investors fled the regulatory uncertainty.
What SAMR Is Alleging
The regulator's terse one-line statement accused Trip.com-17.33% of "abusing its dominant market position" and engaging in "monopolistic practices" under China's Anti-Monopoly Law.
The investigation follows complaints from a Yunnan province homestay association in December 2025, which alleged that Trip.com and other online travel agencies engaged in unfair practices including:
- Forced exclusivity — requiring merchants to choose one platform over competitors
- Unilateral commission increases — raising take rates without negotiation
- Traffic manipulation — restricting visibility for non-compliant vendors
- Unfair trading conditions — imposing terms that favor the platform
In its brief response, Trip.com said it will "actively cooperate with the investigation" and that "business operations remain normal."
The Alibaba and Meituan Playbook
SAMR's probe follows a well-established pattern. The regulator has twice brought landmark cases against dominant Chinese tech platforms for similar "choose one of two" (二选一) practices—forcing merchants into exclusive arrangements.
| Company | Penalty | % of Revenue | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alibaba+2.43% (Apr 2021) | RMB 18.2B ($2.8B) | 4% of 2019 revenue | 3-year rectification |
| Meituan (Oct 2021) | RMB 3.4B ($527M) | 3% of 2020 revenue | 3-year rectification |
| Trip.com (Jan 2026) | Investigation launched | TBD | Pending |
Under China's Anti-Monopoly Law, fines can range from 1% to 10% of the prior year's revenue. Trip.com reported revenues of approximately $7.5 billion in 2024, implying a potential penalty range of $75 million to $750 million.
The Alibaba case set the precedent for cooperation: SAMR acknowledged that Alibaba's "in-depth internal investigation" and "proactive rectification" influenced the moderate 4% penalty level. Trip.com's stated willingness to cooperate suggests management is studying that playbook.
Ask Fintool AI AgentA Well-Timed Surprise
The timing is notable. Lunar New Year 2026 begins January 29—just two weeks away—when hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens travel home for the holiday. It's the highest-volume travel period of the year, and Trip.com's platforms (Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, Skyscanner) process a massive share of bookings.
The company was coming off a strong Q3 2025, with revenue up 16% year-over-year to RMB 18.3 billion and outbound travel bookings surging 30% during Golden Week.
| Metric | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $1,576* | $1,717* | $1,867* | $2,344* |
| Gross Margin | 79.3%* | 80.4%* | 81.0%* | 81.7%* |
| EBITDA ($M) | $344* | $520* | $602* | $813* |
| Cash ($B) | $6.6* | $7.8* | $8.1* | $8.3* |
*Values retrieved from S&P Global
On its November earnings call, CEO Jane Sun highlighted the company's "one-stop total solutions"—flights, hotels, transfers, attractions—and its 24/7 customer service as competitive moats.
"When you are traveling, if you run into any issues... within two minutes, our team will reach out to the customers in the destination, making sure they are moved to the safe area," Sun told analysts.
Market Dominance Under Scrutiny
Trip.com's dominant position is precisely what makes it a target. The company controls over 60% of China's online travel agency market through its multi-brand strategy:
- Ctrip — Flagship domestic brand since 1999
- Qunar — Meta-search engine acquired in 2015
- Trip.com — International expansion brand
- Skyscanner — Global flight comparison site acquired in 2016
Together with rival Tongcheng, the two players control over 70% of the market—a concentration level that has drawn regulatory attention.
The company's Q3 earnings call revealed aggressive AI investment: its "Trip Genie" AI assistant saw 200% year-over-year user growth, and the company launched partnerships with global entertainment companies to bundle concert travel packages.
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhat to Watch
Near-term: Trip.com's business continues operating normally through Lunar New Year. The investigation timeline is unclear—the Alibaba probe took four months; Meituan's took six months.
Fine risk: Based on precedent, expect a penalty in the 3-4% of revenue range if Trip.com cooperates fully—roughly $225-300 million—plus potential merchant refunds similar to Meituan's RMB 1.29 billion repayment order.
Rectification: Both Alibaba and Meituan faced three-year compliance monitoring periods requiring annual self-assessment reports. Trip.com should expect similar ongoing oversight.
International exposure: Unlike Alibaba or Meituan, Trip.com has significant international revenue through Trip.com and Skyscanner. The investigation appears focused on domestic practices, potentially limiting operational impact outside China.
The stock had been trading near 52-week highs before the announcement, up roughly 40% from October lows on strong travel demand. At $62.75, it's now testing support near the 200-day moving average.
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