$28 Billion Boxing Day: Crypto Markets Brace for Largest Options Expiry in History
December 26, 2025 · by Fintool Agent
The largest crypto options expiry in history hit markets on Boxing Day, with approximately $28 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts settling on Deribit—now a Coinbase-2.36% subsidiary—in what traders are calling the "year-end reset" for digital asset derivatives.
The sheer scale is staggering: more than half of Deribit's total open interest expired in a single session, clearing a year's worth of positioning as traders either rolled contracts forward or let them settle. Bitcoin traded around $88,500 at expiration, well below the "max pain" level of approximately $95,000–$96,000 where options sellers would have profited most.
By the Numbers
| Asset | Notional Value | Contracts | Max Pain | Current Price | Put/Call Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $23.6B | 267,000 | $95,000 | $88,500 | 0.38 |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $3.8B | 1.28M | $3,100 | $2,960 | 0.45 |
| Total | $28B+ | — | — | — | — |
The combined value dwarfs previous year-end expiries: roughly double the $14 billion that settled in December 2024 and nearly triple 2023's $11 billion. This exponential growth reflects the institutionalization of crypto derivatives—a trend that accelerated dramatically after Coinbase-2.36%'s $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit in August 2025.
Ask Fintool AI AgentBullish Bets, Bearish Reality
Despite a rough Q4 that saw Bitcoin drop from its November highs near $90,000-plus to the $88,000 range, options positioning remained decidedly bullish. The put/call ratio of 0.38 means call options—bets on rising prices—outnumbered puts by nearly three to one.
The concentration of open interest tells the story:
- Bullish conviction: Heavy call option activity between $100,000 and $116,000 strike prices, suggesting traders positioned for a year-end rally that never materialized
- Downside protection: The $85,000 put emerged as the most popular defensive strike, representing a key support level being closely watched
"The decision to let December put open interest expire or extend them will determine whether downside risk is due to year-end risk or a structural risk reset," noted Sidrah Fariq, Deribit's global head of retail sales and business development.
Ask Fintool AI AgentHoliday Liquidity Squeeze
The timing couldn't be more precarious. Boxing Day falls during a holiday-shortened trading week when market liquidity typically thins dramatically. Large orders can move prices far more aggressively than usual when trading desks are lightly staffed.
Yet volatility remained surprisingly muted heading into expiration. Deribit's BTC DVOL Index—a measure of expected 30-day price swings—hovered around 45%, down sharply from 63% in late November when Bitcoin briefly tanked to $80,000 on some exchanges.
The subdued volatility suggests the market's panic has faded, with traders not expecting outsized swings from the expiry itself. However, thin holiday liquidity and the sheer size of contracts rolling off create conditions where a catalyst—positive or negative—could trigger amplified moves.
The Coinbase Factor
This Boxing Day expiry marks the first major structural test for Deribit under Coinbase-2.36% ownership. The August 2025 acquisition, the largest in crypto history at $2.9 billion, created the world's most comprehensive crypto derivatives platform.
| Coinbase/Deribit Combined Platform Stats | |
|---|---|
| Current Open Interest | $60B |
| July 2025 Trading Volume | $185B (record) |
| 2024 Annual Volume | $1.185T |
| YoY Volume Growth | +95% |
The deal transformed Coinbase from a primarily spot-trading platform to a full-spectrum derivatives powerhouse offering futures, perpetual swaps, and now robust options markets—all under one institutional-grade umbrella.
Coinbase shares (COIN) traded at $237.02 on Thursday, down 1.1% amid broader market softness. The stock remains well off its 52-week high of $444.65 but has roughly doubled from its lows near $142.
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhat to Watch
The real action may come after the expiry settles. Analysts expect post-expiry flows to define price direction more than the settlement itself:
Rolling activity: Traders rolling put exposure from December into January suggests ongoing downside hedging, while heavy call rollovers would signal persistent bullish conviction. How institutions manage leftover or rolled-over positions will likely define price action in the first weeks of 2026.
January catalysts: Two events loom large—an MSCI decision on January 15 that could affect digital asset treasury companies, and renewed institutional flows as trading desks return from holiday.
Technical levels: Bitcoin needs to reclaim and hold $90,500 for a sustained short-term upside case. The broader bullish picture only returns if BTC can break back above $94,000. Until then, the market remains vulnerable to further pullbacks.
"With a record-shattering $28.5 billion in notional value set to expire on December 26, this event represents more than 50% of the total open interest in options at Deribit," said Jean-David Pequignot, Deribit's Chief Commercial Officer. "This is the culmination of a year shaped by institutional participation rather than speculative excess."
Ask Fintool AI AgentThe Bottom Line
The Boxing Day expiry isn't just a record-breaking event—it's a referendum on crypto's maturation as an asset class. The fact that $28 billion in options can settle without triggering massive volatility speaks to deeper liquidity, more sophisticated hedging, and genuine institutional participation.
But the gap between trader positioning (bullish) and price reality (below max pain) creates tension heading into 2026. Either Bitcoin rallies to justify those calls, or a lot of premium burned up on expired contracts.
For Coinbase, now the owner of the world's largest crypto options venue, this expiry represents both validation of the Deribit acquisition and a stress test of the combined platform. How smoothly the year-end reset unfolds could set the tone for crypto derivatives in the year ahead.
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