Eldorado Gold Says Combined Company Could Triple in Value at BMO Conference
February 23, 2026 · by Fintool Agent
Eldorado Gold management made a bold claim at BMO's 35th Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference on Sunday: the combined Eldorado-Foran entity could be worth three times its current value within two years.
CEO George Burns and incoming board member Dan Myerson—who will join Eldorado upon the Foran Mining merger close—laid out the investment case for a transformed company that will bring two multi-decade growth assets into production in 2026. With McIlvenna Bay just weeks from first ore and Skouries on track for Q3 concentrate, management projects ~$2.1 billion in EBITDA and $1.5 billion in free cash flow by 2027.
"Typically, companies in the GDX will trade at a 5% free cash flow yield," Myerson told investors. "We think at a minimum, we can 3x the value of this company, and that's simply by just keeping your head down and bum up and executing and delivering on these projects."
Eldorado shares closed at $43.90 on Friday, up 2.1% on the session but down from a 52-week high of $51.16 reached earlier this month.
Ask Fintool AI Agent80% Production Growth in 18 Months
The combined company's production profile represents a step-change from Eldorado's current base. Gold equivalent output is expected to surge from approximately 500,000 ounces in 2025 to roughly 900,000 ounces by 2027—an 80% increase driven entirely by internal growth projects.
"This is tremendous growth," Burns said. "It's strategic growth, it's got copper exposure, but it's immediate growth, and I think that's something that sets us apart from all of our peers."
The growth comes from two flagship assets:
Skouries (Greece): The copper-gold porphyry deposit carries a 20-year reserve life with the underground orebody open at depth. Average annual production is projected at 140,000 ounces of gold and 67 million pounds of copper. Critically, the copper byproduct is expected to cover all operating and sustaining costs—meaning gold production flows directly to free cash flow.
McIlvenna Bay (Saskatchewan): Foran's polymetallic copper-zinc deposit will reach first production "in the next few weeks" according to Myerson, with commercial operations expected by the end of March 2026. The mine carries an 18-year reserve life and is designed for multi-phase expansion.
"What's super unique about this asset is the fact that it can scale," Myerson explained. "It's very nice to have a long-life, multi-generational or decade asset, but when you've got one that can scale, that's truly unique."
Skouries Delay: One Quarter, $50 Million
Burns confirmed that Skouries first concentrate has slipped approximately one quarter from the original Q2 2026 target to early Q3 2026, with commercial production now expected in Q4 2026. The delay will add roughly $50 million to construction capital.
The culprit: moisture damage to variable frequency drive capacitors in the cyclone feed pumps discovered during installation.
"These capacitors were marked cyclone feed pumps on the craning, and we now believe these were stored outside for a while and then later brought into the warehouse," Burns explained on the company's recent earnings call.
Management emphasized the delay is manageable given Skouries' multi-decade life. "We see the impact of the delay as minimal when looking at the long life nature of the asset," the company stated. Phase 2 construction stands at 78% complete with 1.5 million tonnes of ore already stockpiled.
Fortress Balance Sheet Enables Capital Returns
The combined company will hold approximately $1.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents against just $225 million in net debt—leaving substantial firepower for organic growth and shareholder returns.
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $355* | $452* | $435* | $577* |
| EBITDA ($M) | $184* | $263* | $237* | $331* |
| Cash from Ops ($M) | $138* | $158* | $170* | $283* |
| Cash Position ($M) | $978* | $1,079* | $1,044* | $869* |
Values retrieved from S&P Global
Burns highlighted the capital allocation priorities: "We're committed to continue those share buybacks this year, and we're gonna have our first dividend paid out this quarter, so that should give confidence to the market."
The dividend program, announced in January, will pay $0.075 per share quarterly—approximately $60 million annually. Combined with $204 million in share repurchases completed in 2025, Eldorado is returning meaningful capital while still investing in growth.
Ask Fintool AI AgentThe Deep Pipeline: Perama Hill, Lamaque Expansion, Tesla Zone
Beyond the near-term catalysts, management outlined a multi-year development runway that could sustain growth well into the next decade.
Perama Hill (Greece): G Mining Services has been contracted to build what Myerson called "probably the best undeveloped gold project in the world." The 3 gram per ton oxide open pit carries a strip ratio of just 0.3—"It's just gonna be an absolute free cash flow beast," he said.
Lamaque Expansion (Quebec): The Ormaque deposit discovery has delivered grades "up to 300 grams per ton gold" according to Myerson. The mill is already permitted for 5,000 tonnes per day—double current throughput. G Mining Services is conducting a study on expansion capital requirements.
Tesla Zone (Saskatchewan): The next deposit after McIlvenna Bay will receive a maiden resource estimate later this year, with drilling to convert that to reserves to follow.
Kışladağ Whole Ore Agglomeration (Turkey): Long-lead equipment has been ordered for a project that will agglomerate 100% of ore, improving permeability and accelerating gold recovery from the heap.
2026 Catalyst Calendar
Management laid out a dense catalyst calendar for the next 18 months:
| Timing | Catalyst |
|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | First quarterly dividend payment |
| Q1 2026 | McIlvenna Bay first production |
| Q2 2026 | Eldorado-Foran merger close |
| Q3 2026 | Olympias expansion ramp-up begins |
| Q3 2026 | Skouries first concentrate |
| Q4 2026 | Skouries commercial production |
| H2 2026 | Tesla Zone maiden resource |
| Summer 2026 | Perama Hill EIA approval (target) |
| 2026 | Kışladağ pushback announcement expected |
The merger requires shareholder votes by April 14 and is expected to close in Q2 2026. Both boards have unanimously approved the transaction, with support agreements from directors and senior officers.
Analyst Estimates Imply Substantial Upside
Street estimates reflect the step-change in profitability expected as growth assets come online:
| Metric | FY 2025A | FY 2026E | FY 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.82B* | $2.67B* | $4.10B* |
| EBITDA | $1.02B* | $1.83B* | $2.86B* |
| EPS | $1.75* | $4.45* | $6.47* |
Values retrieved from S&P Global
At current prices of ~$44, Eldorado trades at roughly 10x 2026 EPS and 7x 2027 EPS—a substantial discount to peers. If the company achieves guidance and re-rates toward the 5% FCF yield typical of GDX constituents, the math supports management's "3x" thesis.
Ask Fintool AI AgentThe Risk: Execution
The bullish case rests entirely on execution. Two world-class assets entering production simultaneously in 2026 leaves little margin for error. The Skouries delay—while modest—demonstrates that surprises can emerge even in the final construction stages.
Burns acknowledged the challenge but emphasized de-risking progress: "Two world-class assets coming on stream this year, largely de-risked from the mining side. We've got ore stockpile on the ground. Ore bodies have been infill drilled, confirmed. It's just getting the construction done, and we're on the tail end of that work."
The cultural integration with Foran represents another execution risk, though both companies emphasized alignment on sustainability practices, battery-electric equipment adoption, and community relationships.
"We saw just a huge synergy and culture," Burns said. "This company is gonna be an amazing company. Just stay tuned. Over the next year or two, we should be a top performer in our space."
Related