Genius Sports to Acquire Legend for $1.2B, Accelerating Media Ambitions by Two Years
February 5, 2026 · by Fintool Agent
Genius Sports-25.18% is making its largest acquisition ever, agreeing to buy digital sports and gaming media network Legend for up to $1.2 billion in a deal that essentially pulls forward the company's 2028 financial targets by two years.
Shares rose 4% in pre-market trading following the announcement, though the stock remains well off its 52-week high of $13.73.
"This deal accelerates our strategic and financial objectives, supercharges fan monetization, and builds a fully integrated sports and gaming media network," said CEO Mark Locke on a special conference call this morning.
The Deal at a Glance
The transaction structure reflects Genius Sports' disciplined approach to M&A while keeping equity dilution minimal. At roughly 8.5x EBITDA on the upfront consideration, the deal appears reasonably priced for a high-growth digital media asset.
Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank are providing committed financing, with Genius Sports planning to issue an $850 million Term Loan B at closing. The company's revolving credit facility will remain undrawn, and pro forma leverage is expected to start below 3.0x before rapidly declining to under 1.5x by 2028.
What Legend Brings to the Table
Legend is not a traditional publishing business dependent on SEO or ad arbitrage. At its core is an AI-powered platform that captures real-time user intent and converts it into revenue across sports and gaming.
The scale is substantial:
- 118 million unique visitors annually
- 320 million annual visits with 75% return rate
- 9 minutes average session time per user
- $2+ revenue per unique visitor (4x typical digital publishers)
- 800+ customers across 13 countries
Legend owns and operates high-value properties including covers.com and casino.org, while providing hosted solutions for tier-one publishers like Sports Illustrated and Yahoo Sports. The revenue model is heavily weighted toward recurring revenue—75% of contracts are recurring, driven by lifetime revenue share arrangements with sports betting and iGaming operators.
The vast majority of Legend's revenue comes from North America, where it has grown over 75% in the past two years.
Ask Fintool AI AgentFinancial Impact: 2028 Targets Achieved in 2026
The acquisition dramatically accelerates Genius Sports' financial trajectory. At the company's Investor Day in December 2025, management laid out ambitious 2028 targets: $1.2 billion revenue, $365 million adjusted EBITDA, and 60% free cash flow conversion.
With Legend, those targets are essentially achieved in 2026—two years ahead of schedule.
The new 2028 targets are even more ambitious:
- $1.6 billion revenue (vs. $1.2B prior)
- ~35% EBITDA margin (vs. 30% prior)
- >60% free cash flow conversion
- 21% revenue CAGR from 2026 to 2028
Standalone Genius Sports is also performing strongly. The company reported preliminary 2025 results showing $669 million revenue (31% YoY growth), $136 million adjusted EBITDA (59% YoY growth), and a 20% EBITDA margin. For 2026 on a standalone basis, guidance called for $810-820 million revenue and $180-190 million adjusted EBITDA.
| Metric | FY 2025 (Actual) | FY 2026 Standalone | FY 2026 Pro Forma | FY 2028 Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $669M | $810-820M | $1.1B | $1.6B |
| Adj. EBITDA | $136M | $180-190M | $320-330M | $560M |
| EBITDA Margin | 20% | 23% | 30% | 35% |
| FCF Conversion | Record | N/A | 50% | >60% |
Strategic Rationale: Two Synergistic Engines
The deal creates a company operating two distinct but complementary business lines:
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Proprietary Sports Data Engine (~$600M revenue): Official partnerships with 400+ leagues globally, including the NFL, NCAA, and Premier League. This includes real-time data capture, BetVision betting visualization, and Genius IQ content.
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AI-Driven Media Monetization (~$500M revenue): Legend's owned properties, publisher partnerships, and attention-based advertising platform.
The shared foundation is first-party fan data. CEO Locke emphasized that no other company operates across both official sports data and AI-driven media monetization.
"We acquire data once and monetize it across betting, media, and advertising. More data improves performance, better performance attracts more spend, and higher spend strengthens the network," Locke explained.
The media business is expected to outpace overall company growth. Locke noted that he said in Q2 2025 that the media business would eventually be "as big or bigger than our betting business in the medium term"—and this acquisition accelerates that timeline.
Ask Fintool AI AgentMarket Reaction and Stock Performance
The stock closed at $8.54 on February 4, up 3.9% ahead of the announcement after trading in a tight range near 52-week lows. Pre-market trading showed shares up another 3% to $8.82 following the deal announcement.
The stock had declined over 35% from its 52-week high of $13.73, creating what management views as an opportunity to be strategic about deal structure. CFO Brian noted the "market has been volatile over the last few weeks for reasons that have very little to do with our underlying business strength."
Keeping dilution minimal was a priority. Only $100 million of the upfront consideration is in stock, with the earnout payable in cash or stock at Genius Sports' discretion.
Key Analyst Questions
On AI/SEO disruption risk: Locke dismissed concerns about Legend being vulnerable to AI disruption or Google algorithm changes. "Legend is not a traditional publishing business dependent on SEO or arbitrage or single traffic sources. It's a performance-driven media network that owns and operates many sites, has lots of partnerships, large distribution channels." The vast majority of visitors come direct rather than through search.
On leverage comfort: CFO Brian acknowledged this represents a departure from the company's traditionally conservative balance sheet but emphasized the predictable cash flow trajectory. "The leverage, we believe, is more than manageable, and it still puts us ahead on every cash metric we had."
On prediction markets opportunity: Legend has been early to monetize emerging gaming categories, including prediction markets like Kalshi. "Prediction markets are just the latest example. They create immediate demand for education, comparison, and decision support." The acquisition amplifies Genius Sports' ability to participate across the full curve as these markets mature.
On revenue synergies: Management expects meaningful cross-sell opportunities between Genius Sports' sportsbook customers and Legend's media inventory—and vice versa. "This is an example of an immediate synergy that is realizable in 2026 and would represent upside to the forecast."
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhat to Watch
Near-term catalysts:
- Q4 2025 and full-year earnings (expected within weeks)
- Q2 2026 transaction close (subject to customary conditions)
- Integration execution and early synergy realization
- 2026 World Cup boost to global sports engagement
Key risks:
- Integration execution with an 800-person organization across 13 countries
- Leverage reduction dependent on hitting growth and cash flow targets
- Media industry volatility and potential AI disruption to content businesses
- Sports betting market maturation in key U.S. states
The transaction was negotiated directly rather than through a formal sale process, with Locke and Legend founder Nick Kisberg having a combined 46 years in the industry. "This is how upsides are realized, even beyond the numbers," Locke noted.
Management reviewed nearly 100 M&A opportunities over the past 18 months before selecting Legend—the only deal that exceeded criteria on strategic fit, operational integration, and accretive economics.
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