Gevo Maps $110M EBITDA Path 'Without Building an ATJ Plant' at Noble Capital Conference
February 5, 2026 · by Fintool Agent
At Noble Capital Markets' Emerging Growth Virtual Equity Conference today, Gevo-4.62% VP of Finance and Strategy Eric Frey laid out a three-stage path to profitability that doesn't depend on the company's flagship sustainable aviation fuel project—though that remains the ultimate growth engine.
The message to investors: Gevo can be profitable without building a single new plant, but the ATJ opportunity is too compelling to ignore.
The $110M EBITDA Opportunity
Frey presented a detailed roadmap showing how Gevo can scale from Q3 2025's $6.7 million in adjusted EBITDA to $110 million annually using existing assets and modest self-funded capital.
Stage 1 — Optimize Sales ($40M/year): By improving how the company counts and sells its carbon credits, Gevo expects to reach $40 million in annualized EBITDA "over the next several quarters" without deploying capital.
Stage 2 — Debottleneck ($110M potential): With self-funded capital of approximately $20 million, Gevo plans to expand ethanol production volume, bring in third-party CO2 to fully utilize its 1 million ton/year carbon capture well, and optimize carbon intensity scoring.
Stage 3 — ATJ-30 Plant (+$150M EBITDA): The first commercial-scale alcohol-to-jet facility would add $150 million in EBITDA annually on top of existing operations.
"We are not a company that needs to raise money anytime soon from an operations standpoint," Frey emphasized, noting the company's North Dakota asset already generates compelling economics.
Ask Fintool AI AgentDOE Loan Restructured for North Dakota
The $1.5 billion DOE loan conditional commitment—originally for a greenfield site in South Dakota—is being restructured for a smaller, more capital-efficient project in North Dakota.
Key details from the presentation:
- Extended deadline: DOE's Energy Dominance Fund extended the commitment period to April 16, 2026
- Reduced scope: The ATJ-30 requires approximately $500 million in build capital versus the original $1.6 billion ATJ-60 project
- Target FID: Second half of 2026
- Construction timeline: 2-3 years from FID
"The current administration and the current Energy Dominance Fund office has been super supportive and great to work with," Frey said, noting the loan terms are being renegotiated for the smaller project scope.
The Economics of Sustainable Aviation Fuel
Frey made a compelling case for alcohol-to-jet economics. The process converts ethanol to jet fuel at a cash cost of $3-4 per gallon, competitive with fossil jet fuel on a heads-up basis.
| Metric | ATJ-30 Specification |
|---|---|
| Ethanol Input | 50 million gallons/year |
| Jet Fuel Output | 30 million gallons/year |
| EBITDA Margin | $5/gallon |
| Annual EBITDA | $150 million |
| Build Cost | $500 million |
The opportunity is structural: U.S. jet fuel demand is projected to increase by 2.3 billion gallons annually, while gasoline demand declines. Traditional refineries produce only 9% jet fuel, while ATJ targets 90% jet fuel yield.
"The U.S. hasn't built a new refinery of scale in, like, 50 years," Frey noted. "When you do alcohol-to-jet, you really target the jet fuel without exacerbating gasoline."
North Dakota: The Platform
Gevo's transformative acquisition of the North Dakota site last year provides the foundation for both current profitability and future growth.
The 500-acre facility includes:
- Ethanol production: 67 million gallons annually
- Carbon capture: One of only three ethanol plants globally with wholly-owned Class VI carbon storage
- Pore space: 1 million tons/year capacity (currently 16% utilized)
- Co-products: High-value animal feed protein and corn oil
In Q3 2025, Gevo North Dakota generated $17.8 million in adjusted EBITDA—a run rate approaching $70 million annually.
Ask Fintool AI AgentVerity-Bushel Integration Advances Carbon Tracking
The day before the conference, Gevo announced a strategic integration between its Verity subsidiary and Bushel, the ag-tech platform powering over 3,500 grain facilities representing 50% of U.S. and Canadian grain origination.
The integration connects on-farm data with Verity's carbon intensity scoring platform, creating an audit trail from farm to fuel customer.
"Farmers want to participate in these programs, but they need a process that fits within the common systems like Bushel they already use," said Bushel CEO Jake Joraanstad. "This isn't the next carbon pitch, this is where rubber hits the road."
Gevo North Dakota's Richardton facility serves as the first pilot customer.
Leadership Transition Underway
The presentation comes as Gevo prepares for a CEO transition. Patrick Gruber, CEO for 18 years, will retire on April 1, 2026. Paul Bloom, currently President, will assume the CEO role.
Bloom brings deep experience in renewable fuels commercialization from his tenure at ADM, where he served as VP of Sustainable Materials and VP of Process and Chemical Research.
"Paul learned a lot at ADM, especially about developing and running new businesses, as well as commercializing renewable resource-based technologies," Gruber said in the succession announcement.
Stock and Valuation
GEVO shares traded at $1.77 today, down 4% amid broader market pressure. The stock is trading 40% below its 52-week high of $2.95 reached in December 2025.
Analysts maintain a consensus price target of $5.31, implying 200%+ upside from current levels.*
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | $1.77 |
| Market Cap | $428M |
| 52-Week Range | $0.92 - $2.95 |
| Analyst Target | $5.31* |
| FY 2025E Revenue | $159M* |
| FY 2026E Revenue | $179M* |
*Values retrieved from S&P Global
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhat to Watch
Near-term catalysts:
- DOE loan restructuring details (expected by April 2026)
- Q4 2025 earnings (February/March 2026)
- CEO transition effective April 1, 2026
Medium-term milestones:
- ATJ-30 Final Investment Decision (targeting H2 2026)
- EBITDA progression toward $40M annualized run rate
- Verity SaaS revenue scaling
Long-term thesis: The bull case hinges on Gevo becoming a repeatable platform for ATJ deployments. As Frey noted, "You could build 70 of these plants, and it would just satisfy the incremental jet fuel demand that the U.S. is gonna need in the next 10 years."
Related: Gevo-4.62%