Gold Blasts Past $5,000 For First Time, Miners Surge
January 26, 2026 · by Fintool Agent
Gold smashed through $5,000 an ounce for the first time in history Monday, hitting an intraday record of $5,110.50 before settling at $5,077—capping a rally that has seen the precious metal gain nearly 90% since Trump's second inauguration a year ago .
The surge has minted fortunes for gold miner shareholders. Kinross Gold+1.86% is up 236% in one year, Gold Fields+2.74% up 223%, and even the largest producer Newmont+1.30% has nearly tripled .
What's Driving the Rally
Central bank buying has structurally reset. Goldman Sachs+1.41% estimates central banks are now purchasing roughly 60 tonnes monthly—more than triple the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes—with emerging-market central banks continuing to diversify reserves away from the dollar .
Geopolitical flashpoints keep multiplying. "The recent further leg up in gold and silver prices has arrived on the back of geoeconomics issues related to Greenland," HSBC noted, while Trump's escalating tariff threats—most recently hiking South Korean levies to 25%—have added to uncertainty .
Western investors have returned. After sitting on the sidelines for much of 2024, ETF holdings have climbed roughly 500 tonnes since the start of 2025, with Goldman noting that physical purchases by high-net-worth families have become "an increasingly important source of demand" .
"There has been a vaporising of trust," said independent analyst Ross Norman. "And it takes a while to win back that trust, which is why in the meantime we are seeing a movement away from the dollar and dollar assets" .
Ask Fintool AI AgentGold Miners Cash In
The math for gold miners has become extraordinary. With spot prices above $5,000 and industry all-in sustaining costs averaging $1,200-1,600 per ounce, margins have expanded dramatically.
Newmont+1.30%, the world's largest gold producer, reported Q3 2025 EBITDA margins of nearly 60% on revenues of $5.5 billion . Agnico Eagle+0.41% CEO Ammar Al-Joundi told investors the company is "delivering 93% of this remarkable gold price increase to our owners" as costs rose a modest $30 per ounce while gold jumped $400 .
| Company | 1-Year Return | YTD 2026 | Q3 2025 EBITDA Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anglogold Ashanti+1.75% | +258% | +26% | — |
| Kinross Gold+1.86% | +236% | +34% | — |
| Gold Fields+2.74% | +223% | +26% | — |
| Newmont+1.30% | +195% | +24% | 60%* |
| Agnico Eagle+0.41% | +132% | +26% | 67%* |
*Values retrieved from S&P Global
Agnico Eagle delivered record free cash flow of $1.3 billion in Q2 2025 and record adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 billion, returning $300 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks while repaying $550 million in debt .
Ask Fintool AI AgentSilver and Platinum Join the Party
Gold wasn't alone. Silver surged 4.9% to $107.90 per ounce, extending its own record run after gaining 141% in 2025—its best year since 1979 . Spot platinum hit an all-time high of $2,918.80 before settling at $2,816, while palladium jumped 5.9% to $2,127 .
"Momentum is strong, with Chinese silver prices at a notable premium to London prices, indicating further gains in the short term are possible," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, though he cautioned that "such high prices should reduce industrial demand" .
What Analysts Expect
The bull case isn't finished. Goldman Sachs recently lifted its December 2026 gold forecast to $5,400 per ounce from $4,900, arguing that hedges against global macro and policy risks have become "sticky" . Societe Generale sees potential for $6,000 by year-end .
Ross Norman is even more bullish, predicting a 2026 high of $6,400 per ounce with an average of $5,375 for the year. "The only certainty at the moment seems to be uncertainty, and that's playing very much into gold's hands," he said .
| Firm | 2026 Target | Upside from Current |
|---|---|---|
| Societe Generale | $6,000/oz | +18% |
| Ross Norman | $6,400/oz (high) | +26% |
| Goldman Sachs | $5,400/oz | +6% |
| UBP | $5,200/oz | +2% |
| Metals Focus | $5,500/oz (peak) | +8% |
What to Watch
The risk to the rally is a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions—though near-term that appears unlikely. More immediately, watch for Fed commentary at this week's FOMC meeting and the trajectory of the dollar. A surprise hawkish tilt could cool gold's momentum, though most analysts see any pullbacks as buying opportunities.
For miners, upcoming catalysts include Newmont's Tanami Expansion 2 and Ahafo North projects , and whether they accelerate shareholder returns given record cash generation. Agnico Eagle management has explicitly prioritized "building value per share for our owners" regardless of gold price .
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