ICE CFO Details NYSE Tokenization Timeline, Treasury Clearing Win at UBS Conference
February 9, 2026 · by Fintool Agent
Intercontinental Exchange is executing a multi-pronged digital infrastructure strategy that could reshape how securities trade, clear, and settle—and CFO Warren Gardiner laid out the timeline at the UBS Financial Services Conference in Miami today.
Speaking with UBS analyst Alex Kramm, Gardiner confirmed that ICE's Polymarket data distribution deal is on track to launch "soon," revealed that the NYSE tokenization platform is working through regulatory discussions "over the next couple of months," and celebrated the SEC's approval of Treasury clearing just six days ago.
The $96 billion market cap company is weaving together three separate but interconnected initiatives—tokenization, Treasury clearing, and prediction market data—into what CEO Jeff Sprecher has called "the next phase of market evolution."
Treasury Clearing: First-Mover Advantage Secured
ICE Clear Credit received SEC approval on February 3, 2026, to expand its Covered Clearing Agency designation to include U.S. Treasury securities. The service is now fully operational, making it the first alternative venue for clearing Treasuries—a market that has been dominated by DTCC's Fixed Income Clearing Corporation.
"We do have approval for U.S. Treasury clearing... that's an area we've been able to leverage a lot of the technology and expertise we have in clearing across a lot of different asset classes," Gardiner told the conference. "A lot of those regulations don't come into place toward the end of this year or early next year... but certainly a big market, the U.S. Treasury market, is significant in size."
ICE plans to launch Treasury repo clearing in Q4 2026, well ahead of the SEC's June 2027 compliance deadline for mandatory central clearing.
Ask Fintool AI AgentNYSE Tokenization: Regulatory Discussions Underway
The company's tokenization ambitions extend further. On January 19, 2026, NYSE announced development of a platform for trading tokenized securities that would enable 24/7 operations, instant on-chain settlement, fractional share trading, and stablecoin-based funding.
Gardiner emphasized that ICE is pursuing regulatory approval under existing federal securities law—not waiting for new legislation.
"We'll be operating under the current regulatory overlay. Obviously, we bring the New York Stock Exchange brand and technology to all that... We have all the infrastructure, technology infrastructure in place to do this. And so it really becomes a pretty insignificant kind of incremental expense," Gardiner explained.
The platform will use NYSE's Pillar matching engine combined with blockchain-based post-trade systems, supporting multiple chains for settlement and custody. ICE is also working with BNY and Citi to support tokenized deposits across ICE's clearinghouses for margin obligations and funding requirements.
"In terms of timing... it's a bit of wait and see here because we do have to work through with regulators to help them understand what it is we're trying to do, and we'll do that over the next couple of months and hopefully get somewhere soon," Gardiner said.
Polymarket Data Deal Coming "Soon"
ICE's $2 billion investment in Polymarket—announced in October 2025 at an $8 billion pre-money valuation—is about to bear fruit on the commercial side.
"We've been working on that. I think we should have something soon in terms of getting it launched," Gardiner confirmed, describing the product as institutionalizing prediction market data for risk management. "Really what it is, it's gonna be institutionalizing that data and delivering it to a way that those customers are used to consuming... that kind of data and be able to effectively use it to risk manage better than they can today, where they're kind of scraping it off a website."
The CFO was candid about near-term financial impact: "On a $2 billion-plus recurring revenue business line that we have today in pricing data services, I don't know that it's moving the needle this year... But certainly over time, it could be material."
ICE is pursuing a similar strategy with Reddit, offering real-time sentiment signals and scores integrated with ICE's data sets to enhance market insights.
Ask Fintool AI AgentCore Business Momentum Continues
Beyond the digital transformation initiatives, ICE's traditional businesses are firing on all cylinders:
Energy Trading: TTF natural gas volumes hit record levels in December (ADV up 30%, open interest up 18% YoY), with momentum carrying into 2026. January volumes doubled versus 2024. Open interest remains elevated across the energy complex, up 7% YoY entering February.
Interest Rates: The SONIA business is "doing really well," with open interest in the interest rate complex up nearly 50%, Gardiner noted. The broader rates franchise hit record levels in 2025 with ADV up 19% and open interest up 54% at year-end.
Data & Connectivity: The data and network technology business grew 10% in Q4 2025, driven by demand for ICE Global Network connectivity and co-location services. ICE has more than doubled data center capacity since 2020 and is building another facility at Mahwah this year.
Financial Snapshot
ICE delivered $4.2 billion of free cash flow in 2025 on roughly $10 billion in revenue with approximately 60% EBITDA margins.
| Metric | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($B) | $2.32 | $2.47 | $2.54 | $2.41 | $2.50 |
| Net Income ($M) | $698 | $797 | $851 | $816 | $851 |
Analysts expect revenue to reach $2.67 billion in Q1 2026 and $10.6 billion for the full year, with consensus EPS around $7.62.*
Shares traded at $169.18 on Monday, up 0.4% on the session and roughly 18% above the 52-week low of $143.17, though still 11% below the 52-week high of $189.35.
2026 Outlook: Mid-Single-Digit Growth, Investment Mode
For 2026, ICE guided for mid-single-digit recurring revenue growth across both its Fixed Income & Data Services and Mortgage Technology segments, with data and network technology expected to deliver high-single-digit growth.
The mortgage technology business is seeing "low to mid-single digit growth overall," with recurring revenues expected to grow as the network expands. Revenue synergies from the Black Knight acquisition have reached $100 million, up from $55 million when last disclosed, with roughly a third now in the revenue run rate.
Gardiner noted that AI investments are increasing, both in customer-facing products on the mortgage side and employee productivity tools across the enterprise. The company is also investing in its data center footprint to meet growing demand for connectivity and co-location.
Capital Allocation: Buybacks Continue
ICE is at 3x leverage and generating substantial excess cash. The capital allocation framework remains unchanged: invest in the business first, grow the dividend (targeting double-digit CAGR over time), pursue M&A that meets return criteria, and return the balance through buybacks.
"Absent something on the M&A front... we've been happy to return the balance of that excess cash or capital to shareholders through buybacks," Gardiner said.
Ask Fintool AI AgentAI Positioning: Proprietary Data as the Moat
When asked about AI disruption risks—particularly around the DeepSeek-triggered selloff that hit exchange stocks—Gardiner was bullish on ICE's positioning.
"It's largely proprietary data... high-quality proprietary data. I mean, we've always seen... we are not the cheapest offering out there. We have seen for years people try to come in with much lower-cost offerings, and the market, the pendulum shifts back to the quality ultimately when you have volatility," he said.
The CFO argued that ICE's 50+ years of pricing history across 3 million bonds is difficult to replicate—and that LLMs and AI tools will need this high-quality data as inputs. "I don't know that you can have that confidence with maybe an AI model... And you certainly don't want to have to rip all of those correct prices and history of prices out of your models that you're using today."
What to Watch
The key catalysts for ICE over the next 12 months:
- Polymarket data product launch — Expected "soon" in early 2026
- NYSE tokenization regulatory approval — Working through SEC discussions "over the next couple of months"
- Treasury repo clearing launch — Planned for Q4 2026
- Mortgage origination volumes — Dependent on interest rate trajectory
- Data center capacity expansion — New Mahwah building under construction
ICE's bet is that by controlling the infrastructure across trading, clearing, data, and now tokenization, it can capture value at every step of the market evolution. The question for investors: how much of this optionality is already priced in?
Values retrieved from S&P Global