Radware Charts Path to $500M at NYC Investor Day, Unveils Agentic AI Security as Third Growth Pillar

February 17, 2026 · by Fintool Agent

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Radware laid out an ambitious roadmap to $500 million in revenue by 2030 at its first Investor Day in several years, held today at Convene 530 Fifth Avenue in New York City. The Israel-based cybersecurity company positioned itself at the intersection of three major market disruptions—web security, API security, and the emerging agentic AI economy—while unveiling concrete financial targets that would nearly double its current revenue base. 1

The stock fell 4.2% to $26.75 on the day, with shares swinging between $25.47 and $27.85 amid heavy volume as investors digested the presentation.

The $500M Path: Cloud at the Core

CEO Roy Zisapel opened with what he called "four waves of growth" that would carry Radware from its 2025 record of $302 million in revenue to the half-billion-dollar mark within five years. 2

The math is straightforward: at a 25% cloud ARR CAGR—which management confirmed as the baseline target—cloud alone drags total ARR growth to 15% and total revenue to $500 million by 2030, "without any additional assumptions," according to Zisapel. 3

The company's cloud security business is now approaching $100 million in ARR, accelerating from 19% growth to 23% growth in 2025, with 25% targeted going forward. 4 Total subscription business—including both cloud and on-premises product subscriptions—is growing 21%, with product subscriptions delivering "strong double-digit" growth driven by the DefensePro X refresh cycle. 5

Perhaps most importantly for the long-term thesis: 80% of Radware's business is now recurring. "If you think where we were several years ago as an appliance company and where we are today is a massive shift into a subscription business model," Zisapel said. 6

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Three Growth Waves—Plus the AI Wildcard

Chief Growth Officer Connie Stack, who joined in March 2025 with a background in scaling startups, presented Radware's growth framework through the lens of three market disruptions running in parallel:

Wave 1: Web Economy — The core DDoS and web application firewall business, with addressable markets expected to roughly double by 2028. 1 This is where Radware generates the majority of current revenue, serving 9 of the top 10 carriers and 4 of the 10 biggest SaaS companies globally. 2

Wave 2: App Economy — API security, a market now hitting $1 billion and growing 30% CAGR. 3 Radware recently relaunched its API security suite, enhanced by the Pynt acquisition for pre-production API testing. Management called 2026-2027 the "peak year of decision-making and consumption" for enterprise API security purchases. 4

Wave 3: Agent Economy — This is the new TAM expansion story. With Gartner forecasting a $170 billion AI security market by 2029, Radware sees this as "more than an ocean—it's a whole galaxy of potential." 5

ZombieAgent: Why AI Security Matters Now

CTO David Aviv delivered the technical case for Radware's AI security push, centered on the company's own threat research. In January 2026, Radware disclosed ZombieAgent, a zero-click vulnerability in OpenAI's ChatGPT that allowed attackers to implant persistent malicious instructions directly into an AI agent's long-term memory—without any user interaction.

"We breached OpenAI's guardrails in three weeks after they said nobody could bypass them," Aviv said. "Those silent attacks you saw before—the solution is designed to be platform-agnostic. We support today Microsoft Copilot, AWS Bedrock, homegrown agents." 10

The ZombieAgent research builds on Radware's prior ShadowLeak disclosure and demonstrates that AI guardrails—the rule-based protections built by OpenAI, Google, and others—are "essential and not enough." 11 Radware's solution uses patent-pending "Behavioral Classifiers" that analyze outcomes rather than inputs, designed to catch unknown attacks that guardrails miss.

The company launched its Agentic AI Protection solution on February 3, 2026, extending the Radware platform into what management called "the industry's first agentic security posture management solution."

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Go-to-Market: North America "Triple Down" and MSSP Expansion

Stack made clear that North America is the priority. "Some of the feedback that I've gotten from customers and prospects in the past is, 'Connie, we're concerned. Is Radware committed to the U.S. market?' You bet." 1

The MSSP channel emerged as a key mid-market growth lever. Radware announced this morning that Bell Cyber has expanded its partnership to deliver enhanced AI-driven, cloud-delivered security services. Bell was named Radware's Canadian Partner of the Year in both 2024 and 2025.

"We don't have the resources or the scale to go mid-market directly," Zisapel explained, "but with MSSPs, we can." 4 The company's no-CapEx MSSP model allows partners to deliver Radware's security-as-a-service without upfront investment, opening new channels to smaller enterprises that Radware's direct sales team wouldn't typically reach.

Financial Model: Turnaround Confirmed

The numbers tell a clear inflection story. After reporting a net loss of $22 million in FY 2023, Radware swung to $6 million profit in FY 2024 and more than tripled that to $20 million in FY 2025.*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

Quarterly execution has been consistent, with revenue growing sequentially each quarter throughout 2025:

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

The stock has rallied 45% from its 52-week low of $18.46 but remains 15% below the 52-week high of $31.57. At $26.75, Radware trades at roughly 22x the FY 2026 consensus EPS estimate of $1.22.*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

What Wall Street Expects

Consensus estimates imply continued growth, though the Street may need to revise following today's more ambitious targets:

*Values retrieved from S&P Global

The $329 million revenue estimate for FY 2026 represents 9% growth, below the "sustained double-digit growth" management committed to today. If Radware delivers on its 25% cloud CAGR and maintains on-premises subscription momentum, estimates may have upside.

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The Investment Case

For investors, today's Investor Day crystallized Radware's evolution from an on-premises appliance vendor to a cloud-first, AI-enabled security platform company. The key debate points:

Bull Case:

• Cloud business accelerating at scale with clear line-of-sight to continued 25%+ growth
• First-mover positioning in agentic AI security with demonstrated research credibility (ZombieAgent)
• 80% recurring revenue provides visibility and stickiness
• MSSP channel opens mid-market without sales force expansion
• North America "triple down" addresses historical underinvestment

Bear Case:

• $500M 2030 target requires flawless execution across multiple product lines
• AI security TAM is massive but highly competitive with larger players (CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Microsoft)
• Stock weakness on Investor Day suggests skepticism about execution
• API security market is crowded with well-funded competitors
• Smaller scale limits brand awareness versus hyperscalers

What to Watch

The next major catalyst is Q1 2026 earnings, where management guided for $78-79 million revenue and $0.28-0.29 non-GAAP EPS. Beyond the numbers, investors should monitor:

1. Cloud ARR growth rate — Does it accelerate toward 25%+ as guided?
2. Agentic AI Protection adoption — Early customer traction will validate the TAM expansion thesis
3. North America bookings — Is the "triple down" translating to share gains?
4. MSSP partner additions — More Bell-caliber wins would demonstrate channel scaling

Radware made its case today. Now it needs to deliver.

Related

• Radware Company Profile