BlackRock's Rick Rieder Surges in Fed Chair Race as Trump Signals Decision Is Imminent

January 23, 2026 · by Fintool Agent

BLK

Blackrock-4.43%'s Rick Rieder has emerged as a serious contender for Federal Reserve Chair, with his odds surging nearly sixfold on prediction markets after President Trump called him "very impressive" at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The development marks a dramatic shift in the race to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expires in May.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated the announcement could come within days, telling CNBC he expects the decision "shortly before or after" Davos.

The Odds Have Shifted Dramatically

Rieder's probability of securing the nomination has jumped to approximately 35% on Polymarket and Kalshi, up from just 6% earlier this week—a nearly 30-percentage-point surge in under five days.

The movement has come largely at the expense of other candidates:

Hassett, who once commanded 85% odds in early December, has seen his candidacy fade after Trump signaled he'd prefer to keep his economic adviser in his current role. "I'd like to actually keep him where he is if you want to know the truth. I don't want to lose him. He's so good on television," Trump said.

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Who Is Rick Rieder?

Rieder, 64, is BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, managing roughly $2.4 trillion in assets—a portfolio larger than the GDP of most nations. He's a member of BlackRock's Global Executive Committee and chairs the firm-wide Investment Council.

His credentials span both Wall Street and the advisory apparatus surrounding the Fed:

• 21 years at Lehman Brothers (1987-2008), rising to head of Global Principal Strategies
• 17 years at BlackRock since 2009, when the firm acquired his hedge fund R3 Capital Partners
• Vice Chairman of the U.S. Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee
• Member of the New York Fed's Investment Advisory Committee on Financial Markets (2017-2024)
• Fixed Income Analysts Society Hall of Fame inductee (2013)
• Morningstar Outstanding Portfolio Manager (2023)

Education: BBA in Finance from Emory University (1983), MBA from Wharton (1987).

What Makes Rieder Different

Unlike the other finalists, Rieder has never worked at the Federal Reserve or held a government position. His appeal, according to people familiar with the White House deliberations, lies in his Wall Street bona fides and his "myriad of ideas for overhauling the Fed."

His policy views are notably more dovish than the current Fed stance. In a CNBC interview last week, Rieder argued that the Fed's benchmark rate should fall to 3% from its current range of 3.5%-3.75%—implying several more quarter-point cuts than the single reduction the Fed has penciled in for 2026.

"Higher rates allow wealthy, older savers to do well at the expense of small business owners and lower-income individuals. Cutting rates would be quite helpful to much of the country."
— Rick Rieder, January 2026

This contrasts with Kevin Warsh, who has historically advocated for tighter monetary policy and has been critical of the Fed's quantitative easing programs.

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The Path to This Moment

The selection process began in earnest last fall when Bessent, then the Treasury Secretary designate, started meeting with candidates. Rieder met with Bessent in New York for several hours in September 2025, establishing himself as a serious contender.

Key milestones:

• January 11: Bessent confirms four finalists—Hassett, Warsh, Waller, and Rieder
• January 16: Rieder interviews at the White House with Trump, VP Vance, Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, and Bessent
• January 21-22: At Davos, Trump calls Rieder "very impressive" and signals he's "down to maybe one" candidate
• January 23: Prediction markets surge for Rieder

The interview timing was notable: Rieder was spotted at the White House the same day he attended a ceremony honoring the Stanley Cup Champion Florida Panthers, suggesting the administration is moving quickly.

Market and Policy Implications

BlackRock shares (BLK) traded down 0.99% to $1,128.43 on Thursday, though the modest decline appeared unrelated to the Fed Chair speculation. The stock has gained nearly 46% over the past 12 months.

A Rieder appointment would mark several firsts:

• First non-traditional central banker to lead the Fed in decades
• First BlackRock executive to hold the position
• First Fed Chair without prior government service since the modern Fed era

For markets, Rieder's dovish lean could signal:

• Lower rates sooner: His 3% target is below current Fed guidance
• Pro-growth tilt: His focus on helping small businesses and lower-income Americans suggests a willingness to accept higher inflation for employment gains
• Market-friendly approach: His Wall Street background may translate to greater sensitivity to financial conditions

However, skeptics note that any Fed Chair must ultimately respond to economic data, not personal preferences. The Fed's dual mandate—maximum employment and stable prices—constrains policy regardless of the chair's views.

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The Competition

Kevin Warsh remains the betting favorite despite his declining odds. The former Fed Governor (2006-2011) has deep experience with crisis management, having served during the 2008 financial meltdown. However, his hawkish reputation may not align with Trump's preference for lower rates.

Christopher Waller, the current Fed Governor, has repeatedly called for rate cuts and has emphasized the importance of Fed independence. He's the most traditional pick among the finalists.

Kevin Hassett, the NEC Director, appears to have lost momentum after Trump expressed a preference to keep him in his current role.

What to Watch

• Announcement timing: Bessent expects a decision within days
• Senate confirmation: Any nominee will face Banking Committee hearings
• Market reaction: A Rieder nomination could boost rate-sensitive sectors
• Fed independence: Watch for signals about how the new chair will navigate Trump's public pressure on rates

The stakes extend beyond personnel. The Fed Chair shapes monetary policy, regulates the banking system, and serves as a global economic voice. With Powell's tenure ending in May, the clock is ticking on one of the most consequential appointments of Trump's second term.

Related:

• Blackrock, Inc.-4.43%