Brian Holland

Brian Holland followed up on comparisons for the balance of the year, seeking a better understanding of why compares are expected to be easier, and inquired about the visibility into competitor shelf placement throughout the year.

Answer

President and CEO Darcy Davenport explained that club comparisons ease as the company laps periods with fewer new entrants and expanded sets from Q3 and Q4 of the prior year. She noted Premier's role as a partner for retailers in category development. CFO Paul Rode added that distribution gains, innovation, and increased advertising/merchandising will drive acceleration.

Brian Holland asked for a better understanding of why comparisons are expected to be easier over the balance of the year, given prior year consumption strength, and the visibility into competitor shelf placement.

Answer

Darcy Davenport, President and CEO, BellRing Brands, explained that club comparisons ease because the expanded competitive set at the largest club customer began in Q3 and Q4 of the prior year, making Q1 and Q2 comps more difficult. She noted good visibility on competitive entrants for the first half. Paul Rode, CFO, BellRing Brands, added that full-year benefits from 2025 distribution gains, Q1 innovation shipments, increased advertising, merchandising, and promotional events in FDM will drive acceleration from Q2 onwards.

Brian Holland from D.A. Davidson & Co. asked about the core value proposition of Premier Protein and what provides confidence in maintaining or growing market share as the category evolves.

Answer

CEO Darcy Horn Davenport defined Premier Protein's value proposition as a 'trifecta' of approachable positioning, fantastic taste, and great nutritionals. She emphasized that its thicker, milkshake-like consistency and wide flavor variety are key differentiators that appeal to the largest consumer segment, which prioritizes a filling, decadent experience over other product attributes.

Brian Holland of D.A. Davidson & Co. asked to distinguish how much of the recent distribution gains are from resolving past out-of-stocks versus tapping into new long-term white space, and inquired about the evolving competitive landscape as category capacity eases.

Answer

President and CEO Darcy Davenport estimated that lapping out-of-stocks accounts for about a quarter of the growth in the first half. The larger, long-term opportunity comes from two areas: first, doubling their 'share of shelf' to match their market share, and second, working with retailers to expand the entire category's footprint in stores. On competition, she stated the ready-to-drink (RTD) landscape is stable, with high barriers to entry (complex formulation, expensive aseptic facilities) preventing the frequent emergence of significant new competitors, unlike in the ready-to-mix powder space.

Brian Holland asked why the company flowed through all of its Q2 upside to the full-year guidance, a potential shift from its typically conservative approach. He also asked about the company's current position in its investment cycle and when to expect scale benefits.

Answer

CEO Russell Diez-Canseco clarified this was not a change in philosophy but a reflection of high confidence in execution as operations catch up to the powerful commercial engine. CFO Thilo Wrede added that while they are seeing scale benefits, they continue to invest for long-term growth, such as the accelerated CapEx, and are still building out the organization, albeit at a slower pace than last year.

Brian Holland from D.A. Davidson inquired about the evolving egg category dynamics, particularly the impact of heightened promotions on commodity eggs on Vital Farms' sales, and asked for an early outlook on fiscal 2025 relative to the company's long-term growth algorithm.

Answer

Chief Sales Officer Pete Pappas stated that Vital Farms' demand remains high and is not significantly affected by commodity price gaps, as the company maintains stable pricing and serves as a margin offset for retailers. CFO Thilo Wrede added that consumers who buy Vital Farms do not typically cross-shop with commodity eggs. Regarding 2025, CEO Russell Diez-Canseco expressed increased confidence in the long-term target of $1 billion in revenue by 2027 but declined to provide specific 2025 guidance at this time.

Brian Holland sought to clarify if maintaining margin targets while removing the 2027 sales goal implies a new directional growth expectation of low-to-mid teens. He also asked about the dynamics between slowing household penetration and buy rates.

Answer

CFO Todd Cunfer confirmed that low-to-mid teens growth is necessary to achieve the 22% EBITDA margin target due to operating leverage, but stopped short of providing specific long-term guidance. CEO Billy Cyr explained that the buy rate is currently growing faster than its long-term sustainable rate as a direct result of slower household penetration growth. He also noted that consumer reluctance to trade up is impacting both new customer acquisition and up-selling within the portfolio.

Brian Holland from D.A. Davidson & Co. sought clarification on whether maintaining margin targets, despite removing the 2027 sales target, is predicated on achieving low-to-mid-teens growth. He also asked about the dynamics between slowing household penetration and buy rates.

Answer

CFO Todd Comfort confirmed that achieving low-to-mid-teens growth is necessary to hit the 22% EBITDA margin, primarily for G&A leverage. CEO Billy Cyr addressed the buy rate, explaining it is currently growing faster than the long-term trend partly because household penetration growth has slowed. He acknowledged that consumer hesitation to trade up is a factor, though premium products like Homestyle Creations are still performing well.

Brian Holland asked about the performance of the Complete Nutrition line since its 2023 launch, consumer awareness of Freshpet's value tier, and for evidence of media spend effectiveness over the last 3 to 6 months.

Answer

President & Co-Founder Scott Morris explained that the Complete Nutrition roll successfully attracted new consumers who subsequently traded up within the portfolio, and a similar strategy is being executed with a new bag product. He noted that media effectiveness is being driven by migrating dollars to the most productive, targeted areas like e-commerce, where they are seeing strong returns on ad spend, and by developing new creative to unlock new consumer segments.

Brian Holland questioned whether the relationship between net sales growth and media spend in the second half of 2024 is indicative of the expected dynamic for 2025.

Answer

CEO William Cyr clarified that the two are not time-aligned. He explained that the sales growth in the second half of 2024 is a result of media investment from the first half. The significantly higher media spend planned for the second half of 2024 is intended to drive household penetration and sales growth in the first half of 2025.

Brian Holland questioned whether the relationship between net sales growth and media spend in the second half of 2024 is indicative of how the company views the dynamic for fiscal year 2025.

Answer

Executive William Cyr explained that the two metrics are not time-aligned. Growth in the second half of 2024 is a result of media spending from the first half. The significantly higher media investment in the second half of 2024 is intended to drive growth and reaccelerate household penetration in the first half of 2025.

Brian Holland asked for clarity on the updated EBITDA guidance range, inquiring about the factors that would lead to the high versus low end of the forecast. He also questioned the drivers behind the second-half SG&A outlook, particularly regarding digital investments, the impact of health and wellness trends on innovation, and plans to leverage excess manufacturing capacity through M&A or co-manufacturing.

Answer

CFO Shane Jones explained that reaching the top end of the EBITDA guidance depends on the continued acceleration of the digital business and performance in Asia against tough comparisons. He confirmed a $1 million incremental digital ad spend in Q2 yielded strong returns, and similar investments may continue. CEO Terrence Moorhead added that innovation, like the new MarineGlo collagen product, is designed to capitalize on wellness trends and that the company is actively pursuing third-party opportunities to fill its increased manufacturing capacity.

Brian Holland of D.A. Davidson & Co. inquired about the assumptions embedded in the full-year 2025 guidance, specifically regarding the macroeconomic outlook and the impact of tariffs. He also sought an update on the launch timeline and practitioner adoption of the new digital toolkit for North America.

Answer

CFO Shane Jones clarified that the midpoint of the 2025 guidance assumes ongoing macroeconomic instability, while the high end reflects a continuation of Q1's strong performance. CEO Terrence Moorehead added that the company has proactively managed tariff risks by building inventory. Moorehead also confirmed the new digital toolkit is on track for a H2 2025 launch and is not expected to cause any order disruption.

Brian Holland from D.A. Davidson asked about the company's category growth assumptions, the foodservice business mix, and whether UTZ is still on track to meet its 2026 financial goals set at the 2023 Investor Day despite the recent EPS guidance change.

Answer

CEO Howard Friedman stated the outlook assumes the category remains stable and doesn't improve significantly. He characterized foodservice as a small but potential growth area. Friedman expressed strong confidence in meeting the long-term 2026 goals, highlighting that the core strategic pillars of top-line growth, productivity, and EBITDA expansion are performing as planned and that the company over-delivered on margin and EPS growth last year.

Brian Holland posed a theoretical question about whether Utz could achieve its long-term growth algorithm in 2025 if there were no contribution from price, relying solely on volume. He also asked if recent declines in gas prices have led to any noticeable lift in convenience channel sales.

Answer

CEO Howard Friedman expressed confidence that the factors Utz controls, particularly its white space distribution opportunities, should drive results even with near-term pricing challenges. He believes the company is not solely reliant on category growth to hit its targets. Regarding the convenience channel, he noted it remains a challenge and that while Utz is seeing some improvement from its own actions, he could not correlate it to changes in gas prices.

Brian Holland inquired about the drivers behind the recent growth inflection in Quest protein bars, the market response to the Overload launch, and the innovation pipeline for the bar category.

Answer

CEO Geoff Tanner attributed the bar business's return to growth to the success of the Hero/Crispy line and the new Overload launch. He noted that Overload is performing extremely well where it has distribution, despite its ACV still being low. He acknowledged a prior slowdown in bar innovation but confirmed that efforts have been reignited with an exciting pipeline.

Brian Holland questioned the drivers behind the expected second-half acceleration for OWYN revenue, given recent consumption deceleration. He also asked if the company's strong growth from Quest and OWYN could position it at the high end of its long-term algorithm for fiscal 2026.

Answer

CEO Geoff Tanner explained the Q2 OWYN deceleration was planned due to lapping significant distribution gains. He expressed confidence in H2 acceleration driven by secured new distribution, continued velocity growth, innovation, and low brand awareness offering significant runway. Regarding FY26, CFO Shaun Mara stated it was too early for guidance but the goal is to deliver on their 4-6% growth algorithm, balancing the strong momentum of Quest and OWYN against macro headwinds like inflation and tariffs. Tanner added that strong category fundamentals support their confidence.

Brian Holland of D.A. Davidson & Co. inquired about the competitive and retail environment for the 'New Year, New You' season and asked about the potential for future pricing actions given input cost trends.

Answer

CEO Geoff Tanner noted that retailers are increasing support for the category and he is pleased with the plans for Quest and OWYN, while acknowledging Atkins is pulling back on some promotions. CFO Shaun Mara confirmed a mid-single-digit price increase for RTDs effective in the spring and stated the company is currently focused on productivity but continues to evaluate further pricing actions.

Brian Holland inquired about the performance and incrementality of recent innovations like Quest's Bake Shop and coffee drinks, and asked for an outlook on the competitive landscape for the upcoming 'New Year, New You' season.

Answer

CEO Geoff Tanner expressed encouragement over early results from the Quest Bake Shop platform and noted that new Atkins innovations are turning at double the velocity of the SKUs they replaced. CFO Shaun Mara provided a specific example of this success at Walmart. Regarding the New Year season, Tanner conveyed confidence in their merchandising plans, viewing the upcoming period as more stable than the prior year, which was skewed by a competitor's supply issues.

Brian Holland inquired about the specific sources of the Q1 revenue upside, the implied conversion rate of the business pipeline, and the potential impact of a customer's inventory destocking in the protein shake category.

Answer

Executive Brian Kocher attributed the Q1 outperformance more to accelerated capacity creation than to unexpected demand, allowing them to fulfill existing orders. He declined to provide a specific pipeline conversion rate but reiterated that a larger pipeline increases confidence in long-term growth. Regarding protein shakes, he did not comment on specific customers but stated the category remains strong and SunOpta is still working to increase its output.

Brian Holland from D.A. Davidson & Co. questioned how the current supply chain investments relate to the long-term 20% gross margin target, asking if they signal higher costs or potential upside. He also inquired about the future allocation of capacity at the Midlothian facility, particularly for lines 4 through 8.

Answer

Executive Brian Kocher clarified that the investments are an acceleration of their plans due to faster-than-expected growth, which he believes will accelerate their path to the 20% margin target and potentially create upside beyond it. Regarding Midlothian, Kocher stated that the immediate priority is deleveraging to under 3x by year-end. He also stressed the importance of creating 'non-CapEx capacity' through efficiency gains, which is the current focus before committing to new lines.

Asked for the input cost outlook for the second half of the year, the strategic rationale and margin impact timeline for the new Atlanta facility, and clarification on the drivers for gross margin expansion in the second half, separating volume throughput benefits from the flat input cost outlook.

Answer

The CFO stated that input costs are expected to be flattish for the second half. The new Atlanta facility provides needed capacity for growth and is expected to be margin accretive in fiscal '26 after an initial ramp-up period. For the second half gross margin, they expect to grow margins at similar levels to the first half (50-100 bps) driven by cost savings initiatives, even without a commodity tailwind.

Asked about the gross margin outlook for the rest of fiscal 2025, the drivers behind the recent acceleration in the breads and rolls category, and the company's strategy regarding licensing versus acquisitions.

Answer

The company expects gross margin to improve beyond the 20 basis points gained in Q1, driven by a strong productivity pipeline. The acceleration in breads and rolls is attributed to broad strength, including Sister Schubert's growth and the highly incremental launch of Texas Roadhouse rolls. On strategy, the company believes it can pursue both licensing and acquisitions simultaneously and notes that the licensing pipeline is very strong as restaurant partners increasingly see it as a complementary revenue stream.