Diana Niles

Diana Niles of JPMorgan Chase & Co. sought clarification on the $5 billion in rate base offsets from data centers, asking for specific buckets covered, such as new load transition or previously completed resilience investments. She also inquired whether the Cottonwood addition was already fully contemplated in Entergy's future outlooks or if it still required further approvals for inclusion in the plan.

Answer

Kimberly Fontan, EVP and CFO, explained that the $5 billion in rate base offsets represents contributions to incremental costs, including securitized storm costs in Louisiana, funding for SuperPower Mississippi's capital investments without rate increases, and offsetting future rate changes from ongoing investments. Regarding Cottonwood, Fontan confirmed it is included in the capital plan, pending regulatory approval, and while it moves within the EPS outlook range, it does not change the overall ranges.

Diana Niles asked for more detail on the $5 billion in rate base offsets from data centers, specifically which cost buckets it covers, such as new load transition or resilience investments. She also inquired if the Cottonwood addition is already factored into future outlooks or if it requires further approvals for inclusion.

Answer

Kimberly Fontan, EVP and CFO, explained that the offsets contribute to incremental costs, including securitized storm costs in Louisiana, SuperPower Mississippi's incremental capital without rate increases due to hyperscaler revenues, and offsetting future rate changes from investments. She confirmed that Cottonwood is included in the capital plan and EPS outlook, pending regulatory approval, but does not alter the overall EPS ranges.

Diana Niles inquired about the timing considerations for Ameren's infrastructure and investment pipeline, specifically how much falls within the five-year plan period versus beyond 2030, and the visibility Ameren has into future opportunities, including potential lumpiness in investment profiles.

Answer

Marty Lyons, Chairman, President, and CEO, explained that while Ameren aims to smooth investments for customer benefit and stable profiles, significant generation projects like simple cycle gas plants (2027-2028) and a combined cycle facility (2031) introduce lumpiness. He highlighted the upcoming triennial Missouri Integrated Resource Plan filing later this year, which will update generation plans and potentially accelerate investments, and referenced the detailed Smart Energy Plan and Illinois Grid Plan filings for year-by-year investment specifics.

Diana Niles asked about the timing considerations for Ameren's future infrastructure opportunities, specifically how much investment is expected within the five-year plan period versus beyond 2030, and the visibility Ameren has into these longer-term projects.

Answer

Marty Lyons, Chairman, President, and CEO, outlined the $70 billion 10-year pipeline and $31.8 billion five-year plan, driven largely by generation investments. He noted that investments can be lumpy due to significant generation projects, such as simple cycle gas plants in 2027-2028 and a combined cycle facility in 2031. He also referenced the upcoming triennial Missouri IRP filing and updated Smart Energy Plan for more detailed investment timelines.

Diana Niles asked about the potential need for future revisions to Ameren's generation plans, given the expansion to three gigawatts of signed data center construction agreements.

Answer

Chairman, President, and CEO Marty Lyons and Senior EVP and CFO Michael Moehn expressed confidence in sales projections, noting current generation plans can serve up to two gigawatts by 2032, with future Integrated Resource Plan filings in 2026 providing further updates.

Diana Niles asked about the implications of Ameren's expanded 3 gigawatts of signed data center construction agreements on future generation plans and the potential need for revisions.

Answer

Marty Lyons, Chairman, President, and CEO, expressed confidence in sales projections, noting current generation plans can serve up to 2 gigawatts by 2032. Michael Moehn, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, added that the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) would be revisited in the fall of 2026.

Diana Niles inquired about the ramp to 5% sales growth across service territories, specifically if 3% is still expected from data centers, and sought an update on the Smokehouse Creek wildfire claims process, particularly regarding the $50 million estimated losses.

Answer

Brian Van Abel, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, stated that the 5-year sales forecast would be updated in Q3, noting that the previous 5% CAGR was based on 3 GW of data centers. He explained that the updated 6 GW target suggests significant sales growth and capital investment opportunities extending into the 2030s. Regarding Smokehouse Creek, he reported significant progress with over 320 claims settled out of approximately 420 total, including the largest claims and subrogation insurers, with the $50 million low-end estimate relative to $120 million in remaining insurance proceeds.

Diana Niles asked about the ramp to 5% sales growth across service territories, specifically if 3% of this growth is still expected from data centers. She also inquired about the Smokehouse Creek wildfire claims, the low-end estimate increase, the number of lawsuits it represents, and the stickiness of finalizing those claims.

Answer

Brian Van Abel, EVP and CFO, stated that the 5-year sales forecast would be updated in Q3, noting that the previous 5% CAGR was based on 3 GW of data centers. He clarified that the updated 6 GW target would likely impact sales growth more significantly in the 2029-2030 period and beyond. Regarding Smokehouse Creek, he highlighted significant progress with over 320 claims settled out of roughly 420 total, including the three largest acreage claims and subrogation insurers. He noted the low-end estimate of $430 million includes $380 million already settled, with about $50 million remaining against $120 million in insurance proceeds.

Diana Niles, on behalf of Jeremy Tonet, asked to what extent the high end of Duke Energy's 5%-7% EPS growth range reflects incremental capital and if this incremental capital contributes to the confidence in achieving the top half of the range starting in 2028.

Answer

Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO, clarified that the confidence in achieving the top half of the growth range beginning in 2028 is consistent with any point within the $95 billion-$105 billion capital range provided, indicating it is not solely dependent on being at the higher end of that capital plan.

Diana Niles asked to what extent the high end of the 5-7% EPS growth range reflects incremental capital, and if that incremental capital specifically factors into the confidence to hit the high end of the range starting in 2028.

Answer

Brian Savoy, EVP and CFO, clarified that the confidence in achieving the top half of the growth range beginning in 2028 is contemplated within the entire $95 billion-$105 billion capital range, and is not solely dependent on being at the high end of that capital range.