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Henning Cosman

Henning Cosman

Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays PLC

London, GB

Henning Cosman is a Senior Equity Analyst at Barclays PLC, specializing in coverage of European automotive manufacturers including BMW, Ferrari, Stellantis, Aston Martin, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen. He is recognized for his active coverage and sector insights, with a performance record showing a 75% success rate and average returns near 9% on StockAnalysis, and a top stock rating return of 114% for Volkswagen on TipRanks. Starting at Barclays in 2019, Cosman has become known for contrarian calls such as one of the lowest price targets on BMW and expressed preferences within the sector, notably favoring Mercedes-Benz over BMW. While his exact securities licenses and professional credentials are not publicly listed, his regulated industry role and published research indicate adherence to all necessary compliance standards.

Henning Cosman's questions to Stellantis (STLA) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Henning Cosman from Barclays PLC sought more precise details on the mix drag from inefficiencies in North America during H2 2025 to calculate a sustainable operating leverage for the region. He also asked about other North America EBIT bridge buckets, such as CAFE savings and DNA relief, and the expected sustainable level for the 'Others' segment in 2026.

Answer

CEO Antonio Filosa reiterated that H2 2025 North America saw volume and net price increases partially offset by mix due to operational issues in light-duty and heavy-duty truck production, which are now resolved. He expects significant mix improvement in Q1 2026 from higher truck production and V8 engine volumes, which will be a major growth lever. CFO Joao Laranjo added that 2026 improvements in North America will be driven by volume growth from new products, better mix (including reduced BEV/PHEV volumes), and operational efficiencies, net of headwinds like tires and raw materials. For the 'Others' segment, he attributed 2025 deterioration to financial sales charges and expects a large year-over-year improvement in 2026 due to no repeat of charges and continued financial services business improvement.

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Question · Q4 2025

Henning Cosman sought more precise details on the mix drag from North American inefficiencies in H2 2025 to calculate a sustainable operating leverage, and asked for other important North America EBIT bridge buckets like CAFE savings and non-repeating one-offs. He also inquired about the expected sustainable level for the 'others' segment, which was more negative than expected in 2025.

Answer

CEO Antonio Filosa reiterated that H2 2025 North America mix was offset by operational issues in truck production, now solved, leading to expected higher production and better mix in Q1 2026, especially from V8 engines. CFO João Laranjo detailed 2026 North America improvements driven by volume growth, better mix (less BEV/PHEV), and operational efficiencies (non-repeat of specific items, stable environment), offsetting headwinds like tires and raw materials. For the 'others' segment, he attributed 2025 deterioration to financial sales charges and expects a large year-over-year improvement in 2026 due to no repeat of charges and continued financial services business improvement.

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Question · Q4 2025

Henning Cosman asked for details on H2 regional performance, specifically if North America achieved profitability, given the significant increase in shipments and improved mix. He also inquired about the unit margins and economics of the Jeep Cherokee and Dodge Charger, considering tariffs on vehicles imported from Mexico and Canada, and if this contributed to the modest margin accretion.

Answer

Antonio Filosa, Chief Executive Officer, highlighted strong growth foundations, including 11% higher shipments in H2 2025 vs. H2 2024, a 150% increase in the North American order book, and growing market share. He noted that new products like the Cherokee and Charger, while subject to tariffs, benefit from strong mix adjustments and cost efficiencies. He also pointed to profitable U.S.-produced models like the Jeep Grand Wagoneer and increased Ram 1500 HEMI V8 production as key mix levers. João Laranjo, Chief Financial Officer, stated that regional results would be discussed on the February 26th call.

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Question · Q4 2025

Henning Cosman asked about Stellantis's H2 2025 performance by region, specifically if North America achieved profitability, and inquired about the unit margins/economics of new products like the Cherokee and Charger, considering tariffs from Mexico and Canada, and if this impacts the modest margin accretion.

Answer

CEO Antonio Filosa highlighted strong foundational growth in H2 2025, with 11% global shipment growth and 150% North American order book growth. He acknowledged tariffs on Cherokee and Charger but noted strong mix adjustments and cost efficiencies. He also pointed to profitable U.S.-produced products like the Jeep Grand Wagoneer and increased Ram 1500 HEMI production as key profit levers. CFO João Laranjo deferred detailed regional results to the February 26th call.

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Henning Cosman's questions to Ferrari (RACE) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Henning Cosman from Barclays questioned Ferrari's 2030 plan trajectory, asking why the guidance isn't higher given current performance and personalization levels, and if the company anticipates a steeper growth path or a decline in the latter half of the plan. He also inquired about the sales strategy for the Ferrari Luce, specifically if it will be a low-volume range model, and if Ferrari would adjust its 40/40/20 powertrain split if client preference shifts away from BEVs.

Answer

Benedetto Vigna, Ferrari's CEO, reaffirmed commitment to the 2030 Capital Market Day targets as consistent thresholds, stating it's premature to revise them after only four months. For the Ferrari Luce, he emphasized that sales will be to clients who genuinely desire the car, not forced, highlighting its identity as an electric sports car. Vigna also clarified that while 40/40/20 represents current product offering visibility, Ferrari remains agile and client-centric, capable of adapting its strategy if market preferences for ICE/PHEV/BEV powertrains evolve.

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Question · Q4 2025

Henning Cosman asked about the shape of Ferrari's plan through 2030, noting the current EBIT margin above 29.5% versus the 2030 guide of above 30%, and questioned if a steeper trajectory is expected or if personalization might decline. He also asked about the sales strategy for the Ferrari Luce, specifically if it would be restrictive with low unit sales, and the flexibility of the 40/40/20 powertrain split.

Answer

CEO Benedetto Vigna reiterated that Ferrari remains consistent with its 2030 targets, which are set as thresholds, and will not change them after only four months, emphasizing focus and discipline. For the Ferrari Luce, he stated that it will only be sold to clients who genuinely desire the car, and Ferrari will not force clients to buy electric vehicles. He clarified that the 20/40/40 powertrain split represents current visibility, and Ferrari, being nimble, can adapt its offering if market conditions change, always prioritizing the client.

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Question · Q2 2025

Henning Cosman sought reassurance on Ferrari's pricing power and its ability to secure markups on the six new 2025 models. He also asked if the company might revisit its hybrid strategy given market reception, and questioned its confidence in passing on potential future tariffs to customers.

Answer

CEO Benedetto Vigna reaffirmed the company's commitment to its 2022 strategic plan, which includes a mix of ICE, hybrid, and electric powertrains, and declined to comment on future model pricing. Regarding tariffs, he stated that any response would be managed based on facts once they are known, involving Ferrari, its dealers, and clients, rather than on speculation.

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Question · Q2 2025

Henning Cosman asked if Ferrari might revisit its 40% electrification target for 2030, whether upcoming models will maintain the confident pricing strategy seen with the Amalfi, and for a precise number of Daytona SP3 shipments in Q2.

Answer

CEO Benedetto Vigna deferred questions about the 2030 electrification target and future pricing strategies to the upcoming Capital Markets Day, noting that pricing is always disclosed to dealers first. CFO Antonio Picca Piccon confirmed that approximately 60 units of the Daytona SP3 were delivered in Q2.

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Question · Q1 2025

Henning Cosman inquired about the expected seasonality between Q1 and Q2, potential U.S. inventory pre-shipping ahead of tariffs, and the number of Daytona models shipped in Q1.

Answer

CEO Benedetto Vigna noted no impact from U.S. tariffs, citing strong client appreciation for Ferrari's transparent commercial policy. CFO Antonio Picca Piccon advised that Q2 would likely be lighter than Q1, partly due to a declining number of Daytona deliveries, which will phase out completely by Q4.

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Question · Q4 2024

Asked about pricing power for the upcoming six models, whether the hybrid strategy might be revisited based on customer reception, and the ability to pass on potential U.S. tariffs.

Answer

The company is executing its long-term product strategy and will not comment on future pricing. The powertrain strategy (ICE, hybrid, EV) remains unchanged. Any potential tariffs will be addressed when they become a fact, involving dealers and clients in the solution.

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Question · Q2 2024

Asked if the 20% personalization rate is the new sustainable level, about the latest trends in residual values and their potential impact on future pricing, and for clarification on one-off positive effects in the quarter.

Answer

The company plans for a ~19% personalization rate for the rest of the year. Residual values remain strong, and a new battery warranty program has been introduced to support hybrid values. The positive one-off effect was a release of environmental provisions, similar to the prior year.

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Question · Q2 2024

Henning Cosman asked if the 20% personalization level is a new sustainable expectation and sought the latest observations on vehicle residual values, including whether their normalization could impact future pricing power.

Answer

CEO Benedetto Vigna clarified they are planning for a 19% personalization rate for the year but are building agility to meet demand. He stated that residual values remain strong, with some weakness in the U.K., and that the new hybrid battery warranty helps support values. CFO Antonio Piccon also noted a positive one-off from environmental provisions occurred in Q2.

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Henning Cosman's questions to MBGYY leadership

Question · Q1 2025

Henning Cosman of Barclays PLC sought final clarification on the 300 basis point tariff impact, asking if additional mitigations like price increases could result in a lower actual impact than the guided figure.

Answer

CFO Harald Wilhelm clarified that while substantial changes in commercial policies (like major price hikes) are not included in the 300 basis point figure, the calculation also does not reliably assess potential large-scale indirect negative effects on consumer demand and market sentiment, urging consideration of both sides.

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Question · Q1 2025

Henning Cosman from Barclays asked for a final clarification on the 300 basis point tariff impact, questioning if the net effect could be lower than guided if the company successfully implements further mitigation measures like price increases.

Answer

CFO Harald Wilhelm confirmed that substantial changes in commercial policies are not included in the 300 basis point figure. However, he cautioned that the guidance also does not reliably assess potential large-scale indirect impacts on market and consumer demand, urging analysts to consider both sides of the equation.

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Question · Q1 2024

Henning Cosman of Barclays PLC asked if net pricing includes remarketing gains and how that line item is trending. He also sought to reconcile the company's commentary on stable pricing with observable market discounts, questioning whether dealers are absorbing the impact or if Mercedes itself will need to adjust discounts more significantly.

Answer

Executive Harald Wilhelm clarified that softening used car remarketing results are included in the 'volume structure pricing' bucket and projected a healthy mid-to-high 3-digit million result for the full year 2024. On pricing, he explained that the stable net result comes from balancing new model MSRPs with tactical discounts. He acknowledged dealer-level stock cleansing, especially for EVs, but stated these higher discount measures are not expected to persist through the year.

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