Jamie Feldman

Jamie Feldman asked for insights into the transaction market, specifically regarding cap rate variance between core and value-add assets, and MAA's strategic decision to prioritize development over acquisitions or share buybacks.

Answer

Brad Hill, President and CEO of Mid-America Apartment Communities, noted core asset cap rates in the 4-6% range and a 50-75 basis point spread for value-add. He emphasized development's strategic importance due to solid demand, muted future supply, and attractive yields (6-6.5%), which he believes drives long-term earnings growth. Share repurchases are considered when shares trade at a persistent, sizable discount.

Jamie Feldman inquired about MAA's new, renewal, and blended lease rate outlook for 2026, seeking clarification on the numbers, management's confidence level, quarterly cadence, and market-specific expectations.

Answer

Tim Argo, COO of Mid-America Apartment Communities, detailed the blended guidance of 1%-1.5% for 2026, with renewals expected around 5.25% and new leases showing gradual momentum. He noted anticipated normal seasonality with less moderation in late Q3/Q4, highlighting strong performance in Carolinas and Virginia, and improvement in Atlanta and Dallas.

Jamie Feldman asked if 2026 is expected to be the bottom for FFO, or if 2027 could see lower figures, and how key line items are projected to progress. She also inquired about the strategic shift towards equity acquisitions like Gateway versus higher-yielding mezz or loan-to-own deals previously pursued.

Answer

President and CEO Scott Brinker stated that with two-thirds of the portfolio performing well (Senior Housing and Outpatient Medical), and the IPO having no impact on Healthpeak's financial statements, 2026 is expected to be the FFO bottom. He anticipates more favorable growth in Outpatient Medical for 2027 and an increase in Life Science occupancy from year-end 2025 to year-end 2026. Regarding acquisitions, Brinker explained that the two previous loans were unique situations for empty buildings where a loan with a pathway to ownership was the right structure. Gateway, however, was a unique opportunity to acquire a desired campus at a break-even yield with significant upside potential.

Jamie Feldman asked if 2026 is expected to be the bottom for FFO, considering the progression of key line items throughout the year and implications for 2027. She also inquired about the rationale behind pursuing an equity acquisition like Gateway versus higher-yielding mezzanine or loan-to-own deals previously undertaken.

Answer

President and CEO Scott Brinker affirmed that 2026 is expected to be the FFO bottom, citing strong outpatient fundamentals with a more favorable growth outlook for 2027, and an anticipated increase in lab occupancy from year-end 2025 to year-end 2026. He explained that the Gateway acquisition was a unique opportunity to buy a desired campus with significant upside at a break-even yield, differing from the two prior loan-to-own deals which were specific to empty buildings requiring a different risk/return structure.

Jamie Feldman of Wells Fargo asked about the potential impact of AI on Healthpeak's business and whether it could be quantified in terms of margins or revenue. She also inquired about the quantifiable opportunities from recent positive regulatory updates, the risk from a potential 'most favored nations' drug pricing policy, and which regions might see the most R&D construction.

Answer

CFO Kelvin Moses explained that the company is deploying AI tools like ChatGPT and Copilot to create efficiencies and enhance data analysis, but it's too early to quantify the financial impact. CEO Scott Brinker discussed the regulatory landscape, noting the proposed 'inpatient only' list change is a significant positive for their high-acuity outpatient portfolio. He believes the core markets of the Bay Area, Boston, and San Diego will remain the hubs for R&D due to the convergence of tech and biology talent.

Jamie Feldman of Wells Fargo inquired about the potential impact of AI on Healthpeak's business, the quantifiable opportunities from recent regulatory updates, and the company's geographic focus for future R&D construction.

Answer

CFO Kelvin Moses described AI as a tool for efficiency and data analysis, stating it's too early to quantify the financial impact. CEO Scott Brinker highlighted the proposed inpatient-only list change as a significant positive for their high-acuity MOBs and noted that future R&D growth will be concentrated in their three core markets (Bay Area, Boston, San Diego) due to the convergence of tech and biology talent.

Jamie Feldman inquired about the sentiment and booking trends among Canadian customers, specifically how assumptions for their decline in 2026 are factored into guidance. She also asked for an outlook on the investment market for 2026, including any legislative or policy impacts on affordability, and the company's interest in acquiring one-off MH properties.

Answer

Paul Seavey (EVP and CFO) noted that Q1 seasonal/transient guidance implies a 13% decline, with Canadian seasonal booking pace consistent with October. He clarified that Canadians represent 10% of total RV revenue, with no meaningful increase in home sales from annual Canadian customers. Marguerite Nader (CEO) added that survey work indicates positive Canadian sentiment. Nader described the transaction market as constrained due to fragmented ownership and strong property performance, leading to a focus on internal growth. She emphasized that local-level acceptance, rather than federal legislation, remains the primary challenge for new community development. Nader reiterated the focus on acquiring entire communities, not single-site homes.

Jamie Feldman asked for more details on the Canadian customer segment, including assumptions for their decline in 2026 guidance, and inquired about any changes or opportunities in the investment market. She also asked about the company's appetite for acquiring one-off manufactured housing properties versus entire communities.

Answer

Paul Seavey (EVP and CFO) reiterated the 13% Q1 decline for seasonal/transient, noting consistent reservation pace and stable demand from Canadian annual customers. Marguerite Nader (CEO) described the transaction market as constrained due to fragmented ownership and strong property performance, leading to a focus on internal growth. She confirmed the company's acquisition strategy remains focused on entire communities, not single-site homes.

Jamie Feldman asked about the potential read-through of the 40% decline in Canadian seasonal demand to 2026, and whether the relationship between expense reductions and transient revenue declines could break at some point due to fixed expenses.

Answer

Paul Seavey, EVP and CFO, discussed the potential Q1 impact of the Canadian decline (around $3 million) and referenced the pandemic period where actual declines were better than initial estimates due to last-minute bookings. Marguerite Nader, CEO, emphasized that last-minute bookings are driven by weather. Regarding expenses, Marguerite Nader acknowledged fixed property-level expenses and the need for a certain staff level, stating the operating team continuously evaluates and manages efficiency.

Jamie Feldman sought to understand the seasonal impact of the 40% decline in Canadian demand extending into 2026, particularly for the first quarter. She also questioned at what point the relationship between expense reduction and transient revenue declines might break, given the presence of fixed expenses.

Answer

Paul Seavey, EVP and CFO, estimated a $3 million decline for Q1 2026 if the 40% pace continues, referencing the pandemic period where actual declines were better than initial estimates due to last-minute bookings. Marguerite Nader, CEO, reiterated that cold weather drives reservations and acknowledged fixed property-level expenses but emphasized the operating team's daily evaluation and focus on efficiency.

Jamie Feldman asked if the weakness in RV growth would impact pricing power for 2026 renewals and also requested clarification on the relationship between the notes receivable increase, occupancy loss, and bad debt.

Answer

President & COO Patrick Waite stated that MH demand remains consistent for 2026 rate setting, and while RVs are seeing some attrition post-COVID peak, rate growth has been steady around 6%. EVP & CFO Paul Seavey clarified the notes receivable was a loan to a joint venture. He corrected the perception of occupancy loss, explaining the reported percentage was skewed by new expansion sites and the actual loss was a negligible 40 sites. He affirmed that bad debt remains consistently low at 30-40 basis points.

Jamie Feldman asked if recent weakness in RV revenue growth would negatively affect 2026 pricing power for both RV and MH renewals. He also sought clarification on occupancy loss, bad debt, and a notable increase in notes receivable.

Answer

President & COO Patrick Waite stated that consistent demand should support MH rate increases, and RV annuals have maintained strong rate growth despite some attrition. EVP & CFO Paul Seavey clarified the notes receivable increase was a loan to a joint venture. He explained that occupancy was essentially flat, with the reported percentage skewed by new expansion sites, and confirmed that customer delinquency remains very low.

Jamie Feldman asked if recent weakness in RV growth would affect 2026 pricing power for both RV and MH renewals. He also requested clarification on occupancy loss, bad debt, and the increase in notes receivable.

Answer

President & COO Patrick Waite stated that MH demand remains consistent, supporting a good pricing position for 2026. For RVs, he noted consistent 6% rate growth despite some attrition. EVP & CFO Paul Seavey clarified that the reported occupancy percentage decline was due to the addition of new expansion sites to the denominator, with the actual net loss of occupied sites being negligible at 40. He affirmed that bad debt remains low and stable.

Jamie Feldman asked if recent weakness in RV growth would impact 2026 pricing power for both RV and MH, and also requested clarification on the increase in notes receivable and its relation to occupancy and bad debt.

Answer

President & COO Patrick Waite stated that MH demand remains consistent for 2026 rate setting and that RV annuals have seen 6% rate growth despite some attrition. EVP & CFO Paul Seavey clarified the notes receivable was a JV loan and that the perceived occupancy drop was due to an increased site count denominator, with actual occupancy loss being negligible and bad debt remaining low.

Jamie Feldman asked if recent weakness in RV growth would negatively impact pricing power for 2026 renewals in both RV and MH. He also sought clarification on the increase in notes receivable and its connection to occupancy loss or bad debt.

Answer

President & COO Patrick Waite stated that consistent demand supports the MH portfolio's pricing position for 2026. For RVs, he noted strong rate growth but acknowledged a cycle of attrition following peak COVID demand. EVP & CFO Paul Seavey clarified the notes receivable increase was a loan to a joint venture, not related to operations. He also explained that occupancy was essentially flat, with the reported percentage decline reflecting the addition of new expansion sites to the denominator, and that bad debt remains consistently low.

Jamie Feldman inquired about AvalonBay's visibility into market direction for year-end guidance and spring leasing 2026, and what factors provide confidence or are being closely monitored, given widespread downward revisions to outlooks.

Answer

Matt Birenbaum, Chief Investment Officer, emphasized AvalonBay's portfolio positioning, particularly the low levels of new supply expected in 2026, which means less incremental demand is needed for strong results. He also expressed hope for increased macroeconomic certainty, the resolution of the government shutdown, and a positive interest rate dynamic that could encourage business investment and workforce growth.

Jamie Feldman asked about AvalonBay's visibility on market direction, particularly for year-end guidance and spring leasing next year, and the factors driving management's confidence.

Answer

CEO and President Ben Schall highlighted the company's portfolio positioning and the low levels of new supply expected, especially next year, suggesting that significant incremental demand isn't required for strong results. He expressed hope for increased macroeconomic certainty, an end to the government shutdown, and stable interest rates to foster business investment and workforce growth.

Jamie Feldman of Wells Fargo inquired about the implications of the recent rent trend for Q3 and Q4 blended rent growth and the 2026 earnings outlook. She also asked for an update on the performance of the recent Dallas acquisition.

Answer

COO Sean Breslin stated it was too early to comment on the 2026 earn-in but expects rent change in the second half of the year to be similar to the first half. Regarding the Dallas acquisition, Breslin and CEO Benjamin Schall confirmed that performance is tracking as expected and the company is realizing the benefits of increased scale in that market.

Jamie Feldman inquired about the sustained outperformance of Midwest markets, asking if this trend is expected to continue into year-end and 2026, or if a reversion between Sun Belt and Midwest regions is anticipated.

Answer

Lincoln Palmer, Chief Operating Officer, stated that the company continues to see great strength in the Midwest due to good underlying fundamentals, quality of life, cost of living, and housing affordability. He expects long-term fundamentals to support the diversified portfolio positively and does not anticipate this trend to change anytime soon, though some divergence between markets is possible.

Jamie Feldman from Wells Fargo asked for the key drivers behind the revised core revenue growth outlook and questioned the strategy of acquiring homes in markets with higher supply risk, like Florida, versus stronger-performing markets like the Midwest.

Answer

CFO Christopher Lau attributed the 25 basis point increase in the revenue outlook primarily to an improved bad debt forecast, now expected to be around 1% for the full year. CEO Bryan Smith defended the market strategy, stating the Florida portfolio is performing well despite supply pressures and highlighted the long-term strengths of the Midwest (low supply, affordability) and Seattle (high cost of ownership) which support their investment and development activities.

Jamie Feldman asked for the key drivers behind the revised core revenue growth outlook and questioned the strategy of acquiring homes in markets with higher supply risk, like Florida, when markets like the Midwest and Seattle are showing stronger performance.

Answer

CFO Christopher Lau attributed the improved revenue outlook primarily to a better full-year bad debt forecast. CEO Bryan Smith defended the strategy by noting the Florida portfolio is performing well despite supply pressures. He highlighted that the Midwest and Seattle benefit from strong, distinct fundamentals such as low supply, affordability, and a high cost of homeownership, which supports long-term growth and investment.

Jamie Feldman asked for the key drivers behind the increased core revenue growth outlook and for an update on market conditions. She also questioned the strategy of acquiring homes in higher-supply markets like Florida while seeing strong performance in low-supply markets like the Midwest.

Answer

SEVP & CFO Christopher Lau attributed the revenue guidance increase primarily to an improved bad debt outlook, now expected to be around 1% for the year. CEO & Trustee Bryan Smith noted that Florida markets are performing well despite supply pressures, reinforcing confidence. He explained that the company's diversified strategy allows it to capitalize on strong, low-supply markets like the Midwest and Seattle while also pursuing long-term growth opportunities in other key regions.

Jamie Feldman asked for clarity on several 2026 model line items, including the latest thoughts on loss to lease, the impact of deferred other income, the March insurance renewal, and other key expense items. She also inquired about income growth trends across other markets and their implications for rent-pushing ability.

Answer

Michael Manelis, Chief Operating Officer, stated the portfolio has a current gain to lease of about 1% and expects to start 2026 in a gain-to-lease environment, with deferred other income from 2025 providing a modest benefit to 2026 revenue. Mark Parrell, President and CEO, noted insurance is a small expense item with good numbers this year, pending hurricane season. Bret McLeod, Chief Financial Officer, mentioned rent-to-income ratios for new move-ins are below 20%, indicating consumer financial health. Mark Parrell added that while income growth has been good across all markets, rent growth has varied, creating 'dry powder' in markets like Seattle and San Francisco.

Jamie Feldman asked about the latest thoughts on loss to lease, the impact of other income push-out on 2026, insurance renewal for March, and other key expense line items for 2026. She also inquired about income growth, how it differs across markets, and its impact on the ability to push rents.

Answer

Michael Manelis (COO) stated that the portfolio has a gain to lease of about 1% and expects to start 2026 in a continued gain-to-lease environment, with the other income push-out from 2025 to 2026 being a timing delay of a couple of million dollars. Mark Parrell (President and CEO) noted insurance is a small line item (3-4% of same-store expense) and expects a good number this year. Bret McLeod (CFO) added that new move-ins have rent-to-income ratios just below 20%, indicating financial health. Mark Parrell noted income growth has been good across all markets, but rent growth varies, creating 'dry powder' in markets like Seattle and San Francisco.

Jamie Feldman of Wells Fargo inquired about potential new development starts, asking about target markets, JV versus balance sheet structure, and expected yields. She also asked about the costs and expected margin or revenue impact from the accelerated rollout of AI.

Answer

EVP & CIO Alexander Brackenridge stated they are looking at developments in both suburban legacy and expansion markets, targeting a challenging 6% yield. President & CEO Mark Parrell added they prefer a flexible JV model. Regarding AI, EVP & COO Michael Manelis said the focus is on customer experience and operational efficiency. Mark Parrell expanded that technology is being deployed company-wide to retard overhead growth long-term.

Jamie Feldman of Wells Fargo inquired about potential new development starts, asking about target markets, JV versus balance sheet decisions, and expected yields. She also asked about the cost and margin impact of accelerating the rollout of AI across the platform.

Answer

EVP & CIO Alexander Brackenridge stated they are looking at developments in both legacy suburban markets (Boston, Seattle) and expansion markets, targeting a challenging 6% yield on cost. President & CEO Mark Parrell added that they favor a flexible JV model to leverage partner overhead. Regarding AI, EVP & COO Michael Manelis said the focus is on customer experience and operational efficiency. Mark Parrell expanded that technology is being used company-wide to retard G&A growth over time rather than for immediate savings.

Jamie Feldman asked for Joel Marcus's outlook on the competitive landscape and the industry's path to finding a bottom, particularly regarding potential downside on rents, given Alexandria's strategy of 'meeting the market.' She also inquired if the positive mark-to-market on slide 19 indicates market or lease bottoming, or if it's too early to tell. Finally, she asked if the company has considered an 'asset-light' model to monetize its operating platform without tying up significant capital, similar to some office peers.

Answer

Joel Marcus, Executive Chairman and Founder, stated that there are no true public pure-play competitors, attributing oversupply to 'foolish speculation' by others. He emphasized Alexandria's ability to win due to its team, space, trust, and street cred. Peter Moglia, CEO and CIO, acknowledged market deterioration (TIs, free rent) but noted rents are still above pre-COVID levels. He confirmed Alexandria will 'meet the market' to retain tenants, accepting more TIs or roll-downs, while still expecting a premium. He anticipates availability to peak in 2026, with no new supply in 2027, suggesting fundamentals won't deteriorate further. Hallie Kuhn, SVP, added that Alexandria is outleasing competitors, and conversion of life science spaces to other uses is accelerating. Joel Marcus dismissed the asset-light model, emphasizing the industry's unique, highly regulated nature and the critical importance of their operating platform.

Jamie Feldman asked for Joel Marcus's outlook on the competitive landscape and the industry's path to finding a bottom, including potential downside on rents and the company's strategy to 'meet the market.' She also inquired about when markets and leases might be bottoming, referencing positive mark-to-market on slide 19, and if an 'asset-light' model has been considered to monetize the operating platform.

Answer

Joel Marcus, Executive Chairman and Founder, stated that Alexandria Real Estate Equities has no true competitors, attributing oversupply to 'foolish' building by others. He emphasized Alexandria Real Estate Equities' ability to win due to its team, space, trust, and credibility. Peter Moglia, CEO and CIO, noted that while market rents have held relatively high, Alexandria Real Estate Equities will meet the market with TIs or rent roll-downs to retain tenants, prioritizing occupancy. Peter Moglia estimated competitive supply will peak in early 2026, with availability then recovering. Hallie Kuhn, IR Representative, added that Alexandria Real Estate Equities is out-leasing competitors, and conversions of life science spaces to other uses will help balance supply. Peter Moglia and Marc Binda, CFO and Treasurer, confirmed that an asset-light model has been discussed but doesn't make sense currently, as the lab real estate sector's unique regulatory and mission-critical aspects make a trusted platform essential.

In a follow-up, James Feldman asked about the company's appetite for finite or infinite life funds or larger single-investor JVs, how they would decide what goes on-balance-sheet versus into third-party structures, and if promotes could become part of the business model.

Answer

Chief Executive Officer Dallas Tanner confirmed the recent launch of a third joint venture with a high-quality U.S. partner, which provides added flexibility and creative capital, primarily for new construction opportunities. He explained that a clear, transparent structure governs how opportunities are allocated between the REIT and its ventures, with a priority on protecting and growing the on-balance-sheet portfolio. He did not provide specific details on promote structures.

Jamie Feldman of Wells Fargo asked about the long-term strategy of acquiring properties in high-supply markets like Tampa, questioning how INVH balances growth with the risk of cyclical fundamental pressure.

Answer

CEO Dallas Tanner affirmed the long-term strategy of focusing on Sunbelt and coastal markets despite near-term noise on new leases. He explained that for acquisitions from builders in these markets, INVH secures significant discounts, allowing for conservative rent underwriting. EVP & CIO Scott Eisen added that this is part of a capital recycling strategy, selling older homes to reinvest in new inventory in core markets.

Jamie Feldman from Wells Fargo questioned the long-term strategy of acquiring properties in markets like Tampa, which are experiencing weaker fundamentals due to higher supply from homebuilders.

Answer

CEO Dallas Tanner affirmed the company's long-term strategic focus on Sunbelt and coastal markets, despite near-term softness on new leases. He explained that for new acquisitions in these markets, they secure significant discounts from builders, allowing for conservative rent underwriting. CIO Scott Eisen added that this is part of a capital recycling strategy, where they sell older homes to reinvest in new, higher-quality inventory in core markets.

Jamie Feldman asked for insights into the Washington D.C. apartment market dynamics, questioning the real impact of recent headlines on leasing volumes. She also inquired about transfer taxes by submarket and whether management incentives were fully baked into the share count or would be incremental upon sale.

Answer

CEO Paul T. McDermott suggested early-year concerns about the D.C. market were overblown. COO Tiffany Butcher added that D.C. metro rent growth is outpacing the national average, with strong occupancy, and that projected defense spending could offset federal workforce reductions. CFO Steven Freishtat deferred questions on transfer taxes and management incentives to the upcoming proxy, confirming that all expected transaction costs are included in the current estimates.

Jamie Feldman of Wells Fargo asked about changes to the top-line growth outlook, the current state of the disposition market including buyer profiles and pricing, the company's long-term leverage targets, and the rationale for pursuing acquisitions versus share buybacks given the current stock price.

Answer

President & CEO Anne Olson stated that while the Denver outlook has softened, it's been offset by strength in tertiary markets, keeping the overall revenue forecast stable. SVP Grant Campbell described the disposition market as active, with expected cap rates in the mid-5s for Minneapolis and mid-6s for St. Cloud. Anne Olson reiterated a long-term leverage goal of below 7x, ideally in the 5x range, and defended the timing of acquisitions as unique opportunities, while noting the company constantly evaluates capital allocation, including buybacks, and is now out of its blackout period.

Jamie Feldman from Wells Fargo inquired about the specific market dynamics driving the revised outlook, asking which markets have seen the most change and about the level of concession activity from competitors.

Answer

President & CFO Alex Jessett noted that while some peers are more competitive on concessions, Camden's performance varies by market, with Washington D.C. outperforming expectations while Austin remains soft due to heavy supply. Chairman & CEO Ric Campo added that an industry-wide focus on maintaining occupancy amidst economic uncertainty is tempering new lease rate growth, despite healthy consumer fundamentals.

Jamie Feldman from Wells Fargo asked for details on the decision to hire Charles Young as the new CEO, including what made him a good fit and how his role will integrate with the existing leadership team. She also asked about Gary Shiffman's future role as non-executive chairman.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Gary Shiffman explained that after a thorough search, the board selected Charles Young for his extensive leadership experience in real estate operations and investment, particularly his recent role as President of Invitation Homes. Shiffman's new role will be to support Charles and provide access to his industry experience. President John McLaren added that Charles's diverse background will enhance the team's strategic capabilities, and he is excited to welcome him.

Jamie Feldman of Wells Fargo asked which specific markets have seen the biggest change in outlook for the second half of the year and requested details on UDR's portfolio performance in Los Angeles.

Answer

SVP & COO Michael Lacy identified the West Coast, particularly San Francisco and Seattle, as performing better than expected, while the Sunbelt has not improved as quickly as anticipated. Regarding Los Angeles, which represents about 3% of NOI and is concentrated in Marina Del Rey, Lacy stated that Q2 occupancy was 96% with 1-1.5% blended rent growth. He noted recent trends show occupancy rising to 97% but with some rent weakness and concessions increasing slightly to 1-1.5 weeks.

Jamie Feldman of Wells Fargo asked if the new bonus depreciation rules might cause VICI to shift its investment focus, potentially outside of experiential real estate. She also sought clarity on how VICI views its dividend composition relative to cash flows from debt versus equity investments.

Answer

CEO Edward Pitoniak stated that while bonus depreciation should unleash a strong wave of capital investment, VICI's investment scope remains focused on the experiential category and would not shift to other areas like data centers. Regarding the dividend, he explained that VICI focuses on growing AFFO per share through all forms of capital deployment to support dividend growth, rather than decomposing the dividend based on the source of the underlying cash flow (debt vs. equity).

Jamie Feldman from Wells Fargo requested a more granular breakdown of market performance, asking which markets deviated most from expectations and where visibility is best or worst. She also asked for specific July leasing metrics and August renewal rates.

Answer

EVP of Operations Janice Richards identified Dallas, Tampa, and Denver as markets that underperformed expectations due to significant supply pressures, while Lexington, Columbus, and Oklahoma City showed strength. President & CFO Jim Sebra noted that July new lease trade-outs were in line with June, and renewal notices for September and October were sent in the 3% range.

Jamie Feldman of Wells Fargo inquired about the current state of cap rates in Northern California and whether Essex would consider shifting acquisition focus to Los Angeles.

Answer

EVP & Chief Investment Officer Rylan Burns stated that while Essex has been acquiring assets closer to a 5% cap rate, the broader market for institutional properties in Northern California has compressed to the low-4% range. He noted that while they are tracking Los Angeles closely, many well-located submarkets there still trade competitively in the mid-to-high 4% range, and they will allocate capital based on the best risk-adjusted returns.

Jamie Feldman from Wells Fargo inquired about the outlook for the company's upcoming insurance policy renewal in December and the broader commercial property insurance market.

Answer

Executive Barb Pak confirmed they are currently in the renewal process. While it's too early for specifics, she anticipates a moderation from the 20-30% annual premium increases seen in the last two years, reflecting a broader industry trend. She noted it was too early to determine the impact of recent hurricanes on their renewal.

Jamie Feldman from Wells Fargo & Company followed up on the SoCal deal, asking about the potential for more large-scale OP unit transactions and how Regency balances assets in a portfolio acquisition.

Answer

EVP & CFO Mike Mas likened such deals to an M&A mindset, noting they are infrequent but that Regency's high-quality currency and platform are attractive to sellers. President & CEO Lisa Palmer reiterated their strict discipline: any transaction must be accretive to earnings, future growth, and portfolio quality. Mike Mas added that the SoCal deal is expected to be two cents accretive on an annualized basis, underscoring its quality.

Asked about the potential for more large-scale OP unit deals and the company's approach to evaluating portfolio transactions.

Answer

Large-scale OP unit deals are infrequent and approached with an M&A mindset, evaluating relative value. The company believes its quality and growth prospects make it an attractive partner. Any transaction, regardless of size, must be accretive to earnings, future growth, and overall portfolio quality.

Jamie Feldman from Wells Fargo asked about the potential for more large-scale OP unit deals and the company's approach to evaluating portfolio transactions.

Answer

CFO Mike Moss compared such opportunities to M&A, noting they are infrequent but that Regency is an attractive partner due to its quality portfolio and growth prospects. CEO Lisa Palmer reiterated their disciplined approach: any transaction, regardless of size, must be accretive to earnings, future growth, and overall portfolio quality. Moss added the recent SoCal deal is expected to be two cents accretive on an annualized basis.

Jamie Feldman asked if Regency could quantify the potential impact of tariffs on tenants' cost of goods sold and whether the long-term political landscape influences its strategy on tenant mix or asset locations.

Answer

President and CEO Lisa Palmer stated that the company's strategic playbook remains firm, with a continued focus on essential, service, and value-oriented centers. Alan Roth, East Region President and COO, added that discretionary retail is a very small part of the portfolio and their leasing approach will remain intentional and focused on well-capitalized operators.

Asked for a quantitative assessment of how proposed tariffs might impact tenants' cost of goods or credit coverage, and whether the long-term political outlook influences their strategy regarding tenant mix or asset locations.

Answer

The company's strategy remains firm on owning neighborhood centers focused on essential needs, service, and value, which they believe is sustainable. The tenant categories most exposed to tariffs (apparel, luxury) are a very small part of the portfolio and are operated by well-capitalized tenants. They do not expect to change their leasing approach, which is always intentional and focused on quality operators.

Jamie Feldman of Wells Fargo asked for BXP's perspective on the impact of AI on office demand, questioning where it might be a net driver versus a reducer of space needs.

Answer

Owen Thomas, Chairman & CEO, opined that AI will create high-value jobs in gateway cities where BXP operates, while potentially reducing back-office roles elsewhere. Douglas Linde, President & Director, added that long lease terms being signed suggest clients are not planning for headcount reduction and noted significant demand from new AI startups, particularly in San Francisco.

Jamie Feldman of Wells Fargo requested specific details on the requirements of AI tenants, including preferred building types, locations, floor plate sizes, power needs, and desired amenities.

Answer

EVP & Chief Leasing Officer A. Robert Paratte explained that younger AI firms often seek pre-built, expandable space with efficient floor plates around 30,000 sq. ft. CEO Angela Aman added that these tenants prioritize speed-to-occupancy and landlords who can accommodate their rapid growth. Key amenities include outdoor space, fitness, and food options.

Jamie Feldman of Wells Fargo Securities asked about the investment pipeline, particularly opportunities arising from maturing private credit deals, and whether those assets are in ESRT's target zone. She also asked for the rationale behind appointing the CEO's son, George Malkin, to the Board of Directors.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Anthony Malkin responded that maturing debt from 2023-2024 may create more opportunities, noting ESRT has pursued but missed on some deals while remaining disciplined. Regarding the board appointment, Mr. Malkin explained that George Malkin was unanimously elected to fill a vacancy, citing his qualifications, two years of experience as a board observer, and existing contributions to the company. He clarified that George Malkin will not be an officer of ESRT.

Jamie Feldman of Wells Fargo asked what key overhangs are currently affecting tenant decision-making, given that many prior fears have subsided and economists forecast a better 2026.

Answer

CEO Hamid Moghadam identified 'FOMO' (fear of missing out) as a key dynamic, suggesting that once some tenants begin making capital expenditure decisions, others will follow. He pointed to continued confusion around inflation and tariffs as a source of uncertainty that makes short-term predictions difficult, but reiterated his confidence in the long-term prospects of the business.

Jamie Feldman asked management to elaborate on how they are thinking about the potential impact of tariffs, specifically what a worst-case scenario might look like and how that is baked into their guidance for 2025.

Answer

CEO Jim Taylor characterized the potential impact as second-order, likely manifesting as additional retailer disruption, for which he believes the company has an appropriate provision in its guidance. He stressed that the strong, signed-but-not-commenced pipeline provides tremendous visibility for 2025 and 2026, as tenants are already making leasing decisions for future years.