Matt Summerville

Matt Summerville inquired about the drivers behind the company's confidence in a second-half retail business recovery, Teller Cash Recycler (TCR) penetration rates, the go-forward cadence for services gross margins, and details on the $50 million operating expense savings target.

Answer

EVP & CFO Thomas Timko explained that retail confidence is supported by backlog growth and an expected favorable mix shift towards self-checkout. For services, he reaffirmed a target of at least 26.5% gross margin for the full year, with the Q4 exit rate showing at least 100 basis points of growth over Q4 2024. President & CEO Octavio Marquez added that the TCR adoption cycle is in the 'third, fourth inning' with a long runway, driven by a broader branch automation strategy. Regarding OpEx, Timko noted plans are being developed with opportunities across shared services and operations, expecting a favorable impact this year.

Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson inquired about the drivers behind the expected second-half recovery in the Retail business, the maturity of the North American sales funnel, and the adoption progress of Teller Cash Recyclers (TCRs). He later followed up on the forward-looking cadence for Services gross margins, the impact of current investments on profitability, and the specifics of the $50 million annual OpEx savings target.

Answer

EVP & CFO Thomas Timko and President & CEO Octavio Marquez addressed the questions. They explained that Retail's H2 confidence is based on a strong backlog and a growing North American pipeline with numerous active pilots. For Banking, Marquez noted they are in the "third, fourth inning" of the TCR adoption cycle. On margins, Timko reaffirmed the goal of 100 bps of service margin improvement, projecting a Q4 exit rate at least 100 bps above the prior year, despite near-term investment costs. Regarding OpEx, Timko confirmed the $50M savings target, citing opportunities in shared services and operations, with more details to come.

Matt Summerville asked for a regional breakdown of the 50% YoY banking order growth, the remaining runway for the ATM recycling cycle, tangible progress in North American retail, and why the company isn't using more pricing power to offset tariffs.

Answer

CEO Octavio Marquez stated the ATM refresh cycle is still early, with about 70% of the installed base yet to be upgraded, and detailed strong order momentum across the U.S., Europe, Latin America, and Asia Pacific. He confirmed active pilots with major North American retailers. CFO Thomas Timko explained that the company has a clear path to mitigate 50% of the tariff impact through a balanced approach of LEAN productivity, supplier negotiations, and pricing, with additional levers like SG&A control available if needed.

Matt Summerville inquired about the drivers behind the forecasted second-half 2025 recovery in the retail segment, the state of the self-checkout (SCO) market after its 2024 reset, and the progress of the recycling-led ATM refresh cycle in the banking segment.

Answer

CEO Octavio Marquez explained the retail recovery is supported by large European orders for SCO and POS, coupled with investments in the North American sales team to capitalize on a market shift toward unbundled solutions. Regarding the banking refresh, Marquez used a baseball analogy, stating the company is in the 'third inning' of the cycle, or about 25% complete. He highlighted major wins in Brazil, steady demand in Europe, and a new opportunity in North America for end-to-end branch cash automation.

Matt Summerville asked about the company's confidence in a 2025 retail recovery, requested a regional deep dive on banking demand, and questioned the strategy for re-entering the Asia Pacific market. He also followed up on the implied Q4 EBITDA guidance, the path to 30% services gross margin, the 2025 free cash flow bridge, and the reason for the high effective tax rate.

Answer

CEO Octavio Marquez and CFO Thomas Timko addressed the questions. Timko noted retail weakness was due to project timing pushouts into Q4. Marquez described strong banking demand from recycler refreshes in North America and Windows 11 upgrades in Europe. He explained the Asia Pacific re-entry is a long-term strategy to build a profitable service base, supported by a new cost-competitive factory in India. Timko attributed the Q4 EBITDA outlook to product mix shifts, projected services margins would reach 30% in 2025, and detailed the free cash flow bridge, citing EBITDA growth, lower interest, and reduced professional fees. The high tax rate was explained as a strategic move to lower future cash taxes.

Matt Summerville inquired about the year-over-year margin contraction in the Climate Solutions segment, seeking a breakdown of data center, mix, and other headwinds, and clarification on the path to normalized margins in fiscal Q4. He also asked about the updated data center revenue goal for fiscal 2028, now 'over $2 billion,' and the total capacity Modine expects to have at the end of its expansion journey.

Answer

Mick Lucareli, EVP and CFO, detailed that data center expansion costs accounted for 225-250 basis points of margin impact, with HTS heat pump settlements contributing 125 basis points, and HVAC technologies mix/integration costs adding 100 basis points. Neil Brinker, President and CEO, explained that higher-than-anticipated launch costs due to multiple simultaneous launches caused temporary inefficiencies, which are now being addressed. Mr. Lucareli added that Q3 would see sequential improvement, with Q4 reaching normalized levels by bringing on more chiller lines and leveraging fixed costs. Mr. Brinker attributed the increased fiscal 2028 data center goal to greater demand, evolving customer relationships, and expanded product lines, including modular data centers, providing more confidence for CapEx deployment. He noted that capacity would exceed the $2 billion goal, allowing for high incremental margins at full utilization.

In a follow-up, Matt Summerville sought to clarify how much of the $2 billion fiscal 2028 data center revenue target is already secured by orders in hand or backlog. He also asked if the new modular data center and large air handling solutions are proprietary or if they can be sold across the customer base.

Answer

President & CEO Neil Brinker explained that confidence for the investment comes from a combination of their highest-ever backlog, incumbent status at expanding data centers, and deep strategic relationships. He confirmed that while there is exclusivity on certain designs, particularly with hyperscalers, the modular data center *concept* can be adapted into unique versions for other customers.

Matt Summerville asked for clarification on the challenges of keeping up with North American data center demand, the reasons for cautiousness in Europe, the status of the M&A funnel, the potential for divesting non-strategic assets, the impact of the new modular data center solution, and long-term strategic options for the DC business.

Answer

President and CEO Neil Brinker explained that the North American challenge is one of execution and ramping up capacity to meet strong chiller demand, confirming relationships with five hyperscalers. He attributed European softness to technology adjustments by customers and Modine's premium pricing stance. EVP and CFO Mick Lucareli expressed confidence in executing an acquisition in the first half of the year and a strong focus on divesting the automotive business. Neil Brinker later clarified the new modular DC solution accelerates deployment speed rather than expanding the TAM and stated his immediate focus is on execution, not long-term strategic options for the business.

On behalf of Matt Summerville from D.A. Davidson, questions were asked about the key drivers of the Scott Springfield (SSM) data center business's significant growth, its outlook for the next one to two years, and the progression of its orders and backlog. A second question sought to identify when the vehicular markets within the Performance Technologies segment might see an inflection back to positive growth.

Answer

President and CEO Neil Brinker attributed the SSM growth to gaining market share with a key hyperscaler by proving Modine's ability to scale production and co-develop next-generation products, thereby building significant trust. EVP and CFO Mick Lucareli addressed the vehicular market outlook, noting a slight rebound in European auto sales, expected softness in medium/heavy-duty trucks through 2025, and a potential pickup in ag and construction in the second half of 2025.

In a follow-up, Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson & Co. asked if the current downturn in the Performance Technologies (PT) segment could accelerate the planned exit from $300 million of revenue. He also sought to confirm if liquid cooling or the new third hyperscaler were material contributors to the fiscal '27 financial targets.

Answer

President and CEO Neil Brinker affirmed that market headwinds in the PT segment help identify underperforming product lines, and the ongoing 80/20 initiatives can accelerate strategic portfolio decisions. He also confirmed that neither liquid cooling revenue nor contributions from the third hyperscaler were material assumptions in the fiscal '27 financial forecast shared at the Investor Day.

Matt Summerville asked about the performance and geographic focus of ITT's automotive aftermarket business, and the ramp-up trajectory for high-performance products and Vidar motors over the next one to two years. He also inquired about ITT's actual win rate in MT Friction OEM on the platforms it competes on, given the high number of recent platform wins.

Answer

CEO Luca Savi stated the aftermarket business remains Europe-focused and top-end, experiencing some market-related decline. He reported good progress for high-performance products, with the Tamale plant producing and winning awards, and for Vidar, which is installed with three major energy companies in the U.S. and now shipping with Goulds pumps, targeting $150 million in sales by 2030. Mr. Savi confirmed a very good win rate for MT Friction OEM, noting 142 electrified platform wins year-to-date, matching the total for 2024, as a key pillar for market share gains.

Matt Summerville asked about the auto aftermarket business, its geographic scope, and reasons for any declines. He also inquired about the ramp-up of high-performance products and Vidar over the next one to two years, and ITT's actual win rate in MT Friction OEM on competing platforms, including the number of platform wins.

Answer

Luca Savi, CEO and President, confirmed the aftermarket business remains in Europe, focused on the top end, with declines being market-related rather than share loss. He stated that high-performance products are progressing well, with the Tamale plant producing and winning awards (e.g., Daimler, Audi) using green energy. Vidar is also progressing, installed with three major US energy companies, with a commitment to $150 million in sales by 2030 and a 10% market share in the long term, requiring continued investment for EU and larger US sizes. Mr. Savi reported a 'very good win rate' in MT Friction OEM, with 142 electrified platforms won year-to-date, matching the total for 2024, which is a key pillar of their strategy to gain share.

Matt Summerville asked about the growth trajectory for the friction aftermarket business into 2025 and the status of customer inventories. He also requested an update on the IP project funnel metrics.

Answer

CEO Luca Savi stated that friction aftermarket growth was 6% year-to-date and expects more normalized growth in the independent aftermarket for 2025, with destocking now complete. He reported that the IP project funnel remains very high, up 9% year-over-year, with key opportunities in green energy and traditional oil & gas, particularly in the Middle East and Asia Pacific.

Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson asked about the growth in Franklin Electric's energy systems backlog, the current cycle for fuel infrastructure investments, and the outlook for groundwater performance in North America, specifically across residential and agricultural markets for next year.

Answer

CEO Joe Ruzynski confirmed a favorable outlook for energy systems in 2026 with a strong year-over-year backlog, driven by C-Store investments and international growth in the Middle East, India, and Latin America due to regulation and emerging market needs. For groundwater, he noted a relatively flat market in the U.S. this year and similar expectations for next year, with Franklin Electric anticipating low single-digit volume growth due to high replacement rates and share capture, despite a not-great agricultural market outlook.

Matt Summerville inquired about the growth in the Energy Systems segment's backlog and the current cycle for investments in fuel and infrastructure. He also asked for a detailed outlook on groundwater performance in North America, covering both residential and agricultural sub-markets for the upcoming year.

Answer

CEO Joe Ruzynski confirmed a favorable outlook for Energy Systems in 2026, citing strong backlog growth, continued C-Store investment, and international growth driven by regulation and emerging markets. For groundwater, he projected a relatively flat market in the U.S. with low single-digit volume growth, supported by Franklin Electric's high replacement rate and share-taking initiatives, and a similar outlook for the agricultural market.

Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson & Co. questioned why EPS guidance was not raised following a significant share repurchase and asked for quantification of order and backlog strength, as well as the price-to-cost dynamic.

Answer

CEO Joe Ruzynski explained that guidance was maintained to allow flexibility for accelerated investments in supply chain optimization and factory projects. Water Systems CFO Russ Fleeger noted these investments are back-half loaded. Ruzynski stated backlogs are up in the low-double digits year-over-year and book-to-bill is above one across all segments. CFO Jennifer Wolfenbarger added that price realization covered costs in Q2 and is expected to remain positive for the year.

Matt Summerville from D.A. Davidson & Co. asked for details on the company's tariff exposure, the performance of the North American groundwater business by end market, the organic book-to-bill ratio for the Water segment, and the potential for transformational M&A.

Answer

CEO Joseph Ruzynski quantified recent tariff exposure at approximately $60 million, which the company plans to mitigate through pricing and productivity. Interim CFO Russell Fleeger reported strong Q1 growth in the groundwater business, with residential up 11% and agriculture up 3%, and noted the Water segment's book-to-bill was above 1. Ruzynski confirmed that the company remains open to larger, strategic M&A, leveraging its strong balance sheet.

Matt Summerville inquired about the 2025 outlook for the groundwater business, specifically residential and agricultural markets, Franklin Electric's positioning regarding potential tariffs, and requested a segment-level breakdown of the Q4 restructuring charges.

Answer

CEO Joseph Ruzynski stated that the 2025 groundwater market is expected to be similar to 2024, with growth driven by new products and share gains in the stable replacement market. On tariffs, he explained the company is prepared to mitigate impacts through pricing, its global footprint, and supply chain actions. CFO Jeffery Taylor provided the restructuring charge breakdown: Water Systems ($2.3M), Distribution ($0.6M), and Energy Systems ($0.4M).

Matt Summerville asked for an early read on the contractor new product pipeline for 2026, specifically if innovation could help reinvigorate demand amidst a prolonged housing malaise, and whether Home Center and Pro Paint customers are expected to further decline inventories into year-end or if they are already running lean.

Answer

CEO Mark Sheahan described the 2026 contractor new product pipeline as similar to previous years, with additions in paint, line striping, and texture categories, expected to drive some demand, calling it a 'normal year.' He also stated that Home Center and Pro Paint customers are likely running inventories as lean as expected, not anticipating further significant declines into year-end.

Matt Summerville asked for an early read on the contractor segment's new product pipeline for 2026, specifically if innovation could reinvigorate demand or stimulate a replacement cycle amidst a prolonged housing malaise. He also inquired whether contractor inventories were expected to decline further by year-end or if they were already running lean.

Answer

CEO Mark Sheahan described the 2026 new product pipeline for contractor as 'normal,' with additions in paint, line striping, and texture categories expected to drive demand. Regarding inventories, he believed channel partners were managing inventory to current business levels and did not anticipate significant further declines by year-end.

Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson inquired about the maturity of Graco's M&A capabilities and pipeline, and asked for an explanation for the softness in the environmental business versus the strength in semiconductors.

Answer

President and CEO Mark Sheahan affirmed that Graco has successfully built a robust M&A infrastructure and actionable pipeline, with a confident team and more favorable valuations. He attributed the environmental softness to potential short-term funding issues while expressing strong confidence in the semiconductor market's continued recovery and positive order activity.

Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson asked about Graco's evolution into a more consistent acquirer with a sustainable M&A pipeline. He also sought clarity on the weakness in the environmental business and the strength in the semiconductor business.

Answer

CEO Mark Sheahan confirmed that Graco has successfully built a robust M&A infrastructure and an active pipeline, enhancing its ability to pursue inorganic growth. He characterized the environmental business softness as likely a short-term issue, while stating the semiconductor business feels 'much better' than 18 months ago, with good activity and a healthy order flow supporting the outlook for the rest of the year.

Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson & Co. asked if the recent pre-buying activity was broad-based or concentrated in specific areas. He also inquired about the M&A funnel and whether the significant share repurchase activity was indicative of the M&A outlook.

Answer

Executive Mark Sheahan responded that the order surge appeared to be 'across the board' and not concentrated in any single area. On M&A, he described the pipeline as 'good' and stated the company is actively building its 'M&A muscle.' Executive David Lowe added that the recent aggressive share repurchases have addressed about three years of share creep, but the company's strong financial position provides flexibility to pursue buybacks, dividends, and acquisitions opportunistically.

Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson inquired about how the recent reorganization impacts Graco's M&A strategy and what new markets the company might now consider. He also asked for details about the $16 million litigation charge, including its origin and whether it was adjusted out of non-GAAP results.

Answer

Executive Vice President Mark Sheahan detailed that the reorganization is designed to improve customer leverage, gain efficiencies, and enable a more global focus. He explained that the new Expansion Markets group is tasked with identifying new 'sandboxes' for M&A. Regarding the litigation, Sheahan confirmed the $16 million full-year charge impacted the Contractor segment's operating profit, was not excluded from non-GAAP earnings, and declined to provide further details on the concluded matter.

Matt Summerville from D.A. Davidson questioned the cause of worsening decremental margins in the Process segment and requested details on the Corob acquisition, including its historical growth, U.S. presence, and potential synergies.

Answer

Executive Christopher Knutson explained that the Process segment's tough decrementals were due to broad-based volume declines impacting factory absorption. Executive Mark Sheahan added that sequential weakness in the highly profitable lubrication and semiconductor businesses contributed. Regarding Corob, Sheahan stated that while pre-close details are limited, he likes the technology and customer overlap. He noted Corob's strength is outside North America, its growth is in the low-to-mid single digits, and Graco hopes to leverage its own channel relationships for synergies. He also highlighted Corob's valuable production footprint in Italy and India.

Matt Summerville from D.A. Davidson & Co. inquired about channel inventory levels following tariff-related price increases, the sustainability of the large sequential jump in the recurring service revenue (RSR) run rate, and the potential for double-digit growth in equipment sales for fiscal 2026.

Answer

President and COO Kevin Buchel explained that the pre-tariff inventory build occurred early in the prior quarter, allowing time for sell-through, and he anticipates strong demand will continue. He also noted that while the $5 million RSR run rate increase was significant, further strong increases are expected as past radio sales convert to recurring revenue. On equipment sales, Buchel affirmed the company's belief that double-digit growth is achievable in fiscal 2026, aided by two recent price increases and favorable year-over-year comparisons. Chairman and CEO Dick Soloway added that NAPCO's manufacturing in the Dominican Republic provides a tariff advantage over competitors.

Matt Summerville asked about the current mix of hardware that generates recurring revenue, the timeline for new products to materially contribute to services revenue, and current quoting activity. He also inquired about distributor sell-through trends and when major distributors might return to normal inventory and purchasing levels.

Answer

CEO Richard Soloway detailed the StarLink radio lines and the new MVP cloud-based access control platforms, noting the goal is for recurring revenue to exceed 50% of total business. President and CFO Kevin Buchel highlighted encouraging sell-through statistics, with sequential growth in intrusion (7%), Alarm Lock (16%), and Marks locking (7%), suggesting that strong end-user demand will compel distributors to resume ordering soon.

Matt Summerville from D.A. Davidson & Co. asked about the number of device activations, the deceleration in recurring service revenue (RSR) growth, the outlook for Q3 equipment revenue, and the company's share repurchase strategy.

Answer

President and CFO Kevin Buchel explained that device activations increased by approximately 1,000 compared to the prior quarter. He projected RSR growth would dip to around 12-12.5% in Q3 before re-accelerating in Q4, with a long-term optimal target of 20%. Buchel noted that a difficult year-over-year comparison for Q3 equipment revenue, due to a large project in the prior year, would make growth challenging. He also confirmed the company views the current stock price as a potential opportunistic moment for buybacks, which are balanced against M&A, dividends, and maintaining cash reserves.

Matt Summerville inquired about the temporary nature of the inventory reduction in locking hardware, asking why this situation differs from the multi-quarter destocking seen in radios and whether equipment revenues could still grow for the full fiscal year. He also asked about the extent of promotional activity that drove the strong radio sales and the outlook for continued radio growth.

Answer

President, COO, and CFO Kevin Buchel explained that the locking hardware inventory situation is a temporary, one-quarter event based on direct conversations with major distributors, who cited factors like the election and budget cycles. This contrasts with the radio destocking, which followed a massive build-up for the 3G sunset. Buchel affirmed his belief that locking sales will recover and grow as the year progresses. He also noted that the strong radio sales were driven by targeted promotions, management changes, and highlighting product superiority, which he expects to continue driving future recurring revenue growth.

Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson & Co. asked about the growth drivers and market share capture in the Locking business, and inquired about the outlook for the Radio business, including its potential to reaccelerate after a recent decline.

Answer

Kevin Buchel, President, COO & CFO, attributed the Locking business's 18% annual growth to market share gains during competitors' supply chain issues, diversification into schools and hospitals, and a focus on higher-value electrified locks. For the Radio business, he explained that while lower-end radio sales were down, the high-value fire radio segment remains strong, driving the 27% recurring revenue growth. He expects distributor inventory issues to resolve, leading to increased overall radio sales.

Matt Summerville asked for details on the book-to-bill ratio within the APS segment for Q3, specifically for its plastics and Food, Health & Nutrition (FHN) businesses. He also inquired about the dividend policy in light of current leverage levels and cash flow performance.

Answer

CEO Kimberly Ryan stated that the MTS book-to-bill was stable, while APS saw a slight dip expected to recover in Q4, but did not provide a sub-segment breakdown. She noted FHN order activity is stable, with growth driven by cross-selling and geographic expansion. Regarding the dividend, Ryan explained that capital allocation is regularly reviewed with the board to ensure long-term shareholder value, but had no specific changes to announce at this time.

Matt Summerville inquired about the order cadence during the quarter and into April, seeking specific color on the Advanced Process Solutions (APS) segment's performance across its various end markets. He also asked for an update on synergy realization from recent acquisitions and whether Hillenbrand is considering any further asset sales following the TerraSource divestiture agreement.

Answer

CFO Bob VanHimbergen explained that orders were stable through February but then paused due to tariff uncertainty, particularly impacting larger projects in food, health, nutrition (FHN), and plastics. He noted a shift in quoting activity from China to India for the MTS segment. CEO Kim Ryan added that despite delays, the FHN business saw year-over-year order growth, validating their full-solution strategy. Regarding synergies, she confirmed they are on track to achieve targets ahead of schedule, citing progress in functional integration and site consolidation. On portfolio moves, Bob VanHimbergen stated that the company continuously evaluates all assets to ensure they are the right owner, pointing to the recent Milacron and TerraSource transactions as examples of this ongoing process.

Matt Summerville asked about the drivers of the APS segment's Q4 margin deleverage and the outlook for fiscal 2025. He also inquired about pricing pressures in the MTS segment and followed up on the company's capital allocation strategy, specifically questioning the dividend in light of deleveraging goals and future M&A ambitions.

Answer

CFO Bob VanHimbergen attributed the Q4 APS margin pressure to lower volumes, incentive compensation timing, and project mix. He stated the fiscal 2025 outlook reflects better flow-through due to cost controls and synergies. He confirmed ongoing price-cost pressure in the MTS segment. Regarding capital allocation, CEO Kim Ryan stated that the dividend and all priorities are continuously evaluated with the Board to maximize shareholder value, and any changes would be communicated when appropriate.

Matt Summerville asked about the drivers behind the improved concentrate grade, the trade-off between grade and volume, and whether this higher grade is necessary to achieve the Stage 2 nameplate production capacity.

Answer

COO Michael Rosenthal explained that recent optimizations allowed the team to increase concentrate grade without a significant sacrifice in recovery. He clarified that while higher-purity concentrate benefits the cost structure and throughput of the midstream operation, it is not a requirement to reach the Stage 2 nameplate capacity, as they are comfortable with the current concentrate's ability to ramp the facility.

Matt Summerville asked if the company's operational playbook for its Stage 2 and Magnetics ramp has changed recently to accelerate the process. He also sought clarification on the heavy rare earth supply chain, questioning if the company can remain self-sufficient or if it is actively stockpiling third-party materials.

Answer

COO Michael Rosenthal responded that while the goal has always been to ramp as quickly as possible, there is now a marginal refocusing of upstream operations to optimize concentrate production specifically for the midstream assets. On the supply chain question, CFO Ryan Corbett stated definitively that MP Materials is in a position to be self-sufficient, having already secured the required heavy rare earth feedstock to scale its Independence facility as planned.

Matt Summerville asked about the expected cadence of the NdPr volume ramp through 2025 and into 2026, and how the current pricing environment influences that ramp. He also inquired about the company's perspective on China's plan to prohibit non-state companies from mining rare earths.

Answer

COO Michael Rosenthal explained that the 2025 focus will shift to uptime and throughput, driving significant volume growth and a return to profitability, with increased confidence following the Q2 maintenance outage. Regarding China's policy, Rosenthal noted it aligns with a long-term consolidation trend, which could lead to greater supply discipline and higher prices, thereby validating MP's mission to build a diverse supply chain.

Matt Summerville inquired about the timeline for the refining business to achieve EBITDA positivity and sought clarification on the drivers for the flat sequential NdPr production in Q4, followed by an expected acceleration in Q1.

Answer

CFO Ryan Corbett indicated that positive EBITDA for the refining business should follow 'not too far behind' the achievement of positive gross margin, which is expected as the company exits Q1 2025. For Q4 production, Corbett cited a long planned maintenance outage in October and short-term instability from new equipment commissioning as the primary reasons for the flat output. COO Michael Rosenthal added that rebuilding work-in-progress inventory post-shutdown also contributes, but expects improved uptime to drive stronger Q1 performance.

Matt Summerville from D.A. Davidson & Co. inquired about demand trends in Crane Payment Innovations (CPI) verticals beyond gaming, the company's conviction in CPI's return to growth, the financial cadence for the second half of 2025, and the potential EPS accretion from the authentication business's 2026 margin target.

Answer

President & CEO Aaron Saak confirmed that gaming inventory has normalized, expecting strong double-digit growth in H2. He noted that other CPI verticals are performing as expected, with the business positioned for long-term low single-digit growth. SVP & CFO Christina Cristiano added that H2 revenue and operating profit would be slightly weighted to Q4. Regarding the authentication business, Aaron Saak stated it was too early to quantify 2026 EPS accretion but confirmed they are on track for the 20% operating margin target by the end of 2026.

Matt Summerville asked for a detailed breakdown of the full-year growth expectations for Crane Payment Innovations' (CPI) four main end markets, the size of the anticipated demand pushout due to tariffs, and which verticals would be most impacted. He also inquired about the performance of the Crane Currency business, seeking clarity on the U.S. versus international results and the expected cadence for the remainder of the year.

Answer

President and CEO Aaron Saak confirmed the demand pushout is approximately $20 million, primarily affecting the vending vertical in Q2 due to tariffs. He outlined full-year expectations for CPI's markets: gaming at low single-digit growth, retail with a high single-digit decline, financial services at mid-single-digit growth, and vending now a low single-digit decliner. For Crane Currency, he stated performance was as expected, with U.S. operations on track and international performance being slightly better, supporting a raised sales outlook.

Matt Summerville questioned the confidence in the gaming business's second-half 2025 recovery, the drivers behind the significant Q1 margin decline, the expected revenue and earnings cadence for the year, and the outlook for international currency design wins.

Answer

CEO Aaron Saak expressed high confidence in the gaming market's health and a Q2 order inflection, citing direct OEM feedback. He and CFO Christina Cristiano confirmed that the Q1 margin pressure is primarily due to a temporary, high double-digit decline in U.S. currency sales from planned equipment upgrades. Christina Cristiano clarified that revenue and operating profit would be more heavily weighted to the second half of 2025. Aaron Saak also affirmed that the target of 10-15 annual international design wins remains a reasonable expectation.

Matt Summerville asked for the 2025 outlook for the CPI and Currency segments, questioning the go-forward cadence in gaming and the impact of lower U.S. government currency volumes. He later sought clarification on the high-level guidance for total Crane NXT sales to be 'approximately flat' in 2025, questioning the underlying assumptions for the segments.

Answer

President and CEO Aaron Saak explained that while non-gaming CPI verticals are growing at mid-single digits, gaming is seeing slower order rates due to OEM inventory adjustments, leading to a flat Q4 outlook for CPI. For 2025, he clarified that the 'flat' total revenue guidance for Crane NXT includes a full year of OpSec contribution and is composed of a double-digit decline in U.S. currency, strong mid-single-digit-plus growth from international currency and OpSec combined, and low-single-digit growth for the CPI segment.

Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson inquired about the ATM as a Service business, specifically the average ARPU and size of the backlog. He also asked for quantification of service level improvements and the company's planned aggressiveness with its new share repurchase program.

Answer

President & CEO Tim Oliver stated the ATM as a Service backlog has an ARPU over $9,100 across more than 8,000 units. EVP & COO Stuart MacKinnon added the backlog is up 105% year-over-year. Regarding service, Tim Oliver highlighted a 160 basis point increase in customer health scores. On capital allocation, he confirmed the company will use a 10b5-1 plan for the $200 million buyback, acting opportunistically at lower stock prices once leverage is below 3.0x.

Matt Summerville asked about the average revenue per unit (ARPU) and size of the ATM as a Service backlog, specific metrics on service organization improvements, and the expected aggressiveness of the new share repurchase program.

Answer

CEO Tim Oliver and COO Stuart MacKinnon stated the ATM as a Service backlog has an ARPU of over $9,100 across more than 8,000 units, with backlog up 105% year-over-year. Tim Oliver detailed service improvements, citing positive customer pulse surveys and a 160 basis point increase in customer health scores. He confirmed the company would be aggressive with its $200 million buyback at current stock prices, utilizing a 10b5-1 plan once net leverage is below 3.0x.

Matt Summerville asked about the hardware backlog and ATM-as-a-Service growth ramp, the timing for potential share buybacks, transactional trends in the Network business, and the strategic plan for the LibertyX business and M&A.

Answer

CEO Tim Oliver stated that 2025 is expected to be the best hardware year since 2019, with the ATM-as-a-Service ramp being back-end loaded. He indicated a more definitive plan on capital returns, likely share repurchases, would come after leverage falls below 3x. Oliver noted U.S. network withdrawals were up while U.K. was down, and that the LibertyX business has been de-emphasized. He also mentioned a pipeline of M&A opportunities that could be pursued once debt targets are met.

Matt Summerville inquired about the change in ATM-as-a-Service (AaaS) ARPU within the backlog and asked for a geographic overview of demand trends for both hardware and AaaS offerings.

Answer

CEO Timothy Oliver explained that the backlog's average ARPU shifted due to the implementation of high-value units and a mix change towards regions like India. He affirmed that 2025 implementations will still be accretive. Oliver also noted strong hardware demand in Western Europe and the U.S., driven by a new recycler product and a modest refresh cycle, while AaaS sees traction in India, Western Europe, and the U.S.

Matt Summerville inquired about NCR Atleos's 2025 free cash flow outlook, capital allocation priorities like share buybacks, the significant ARPU difference between existing and backlogged ATM as a Service units, and the future cost of cash for the Network segment.

Answer

CEO Tim Oliver projected significant free cash flow growth in 2025, driven by 8-10% EBITDA growth and a higher conversion rate. He stated the Board's priority is deleveraging to below 3x by mid-2025, after which share buybacks would be a 'no-brainer'. CFO Paul Campbell clarified the ARPU difference is due to the backlog's higher mix of North American, multifunction units versus the existing base's India and asset-light deals. Campbell also noted the cost of cash would be a slight headwind in 2025 before turning into a tailwind, smoothed by derivative swaps.

Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson asked if the new storage system could accelerate new customer acquisition beyond the current one-to-two per year target and requested a more detailed update on GreenBox's progress. He also questioned if the new system would require new manufacturing or installation partners.

Answer

Founder, Chairman & CEO Richard Cohen confirmed he expects customer acquisition to accelerate, as the new structure offers more flexibility for both smaller and larger systems. On GreenBox, he noted that sites are being rolled out and the sales force is growing. He also stated that while they are working with some new manufacturers for specific steel components, the installation will be handled by their existing, trained teams.

Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson & Co. requested an update on Symbotic's technology and innovation roadmap, particularly regarding perishables. He also sought clarification on whether ASR revenue was in the single-digit millions or percentage range and asked for a timeline on potential GreenBox tenant announcements.

Answer

CEO Rick Cohen confirmed that with the ASR acquisition, they are developing bots for both perishable and frozen goods and are in discussions with customers about building perishable warehouses. He also mentioned work on smaller systems and a second-generation BreakPack system. CFO Carol Hibbard clarified ASR revenue was a mid- to high-single-digit percentage of total revenue. Cohen added that GreenBox is accelerating sales efforts with its new CEO and the first site will have C&S as a customer.

Matt Summerville asked how key metrics like ongoing deployments, completions, and starts are expected to evolve in fiscal '25. He also questioned how the new remote bot capability drives efficiency and asked for an update on non-ambient system development.

Answer

CFO Carol Hibbard projected completions would continue around four per quarter, while noting the nine starts in Q4 was unusually high and not a new run-rate, though annual starts should increase. CEO Richard Cohen explained that vision technology improves robot reliability and enables remote operations, which is key for scaling. He stated there was nothing new to report on non-ambient systems.

Matt Summerville from D.A. Davidson requested an analysis of the automation business, including profitability and order trends, and asked about the M&A pipeline and deal environment following the FARO acquisition.

Answer

Chairman and CEO David Zapico reported that the inventory destock in the automation business is over, leading to strong order growth and contributing to EMG's profit increase. On M&A, Zapico stated the pipeline remains strong and the company is actively looking at deals, highlighting a financial capacity of $4.5 to $5 billion for future acquisitions.

Matt Summerville asked for details on the performance of Paragon Medical and the broader medical business, noting a recent order inflection. He also inquired about the order cadence across AMETEK, any signs of pre-buying, and price realization in Q1.

Answer

CEO David Zapico explained that after a post-acquisition destocking period, Paragon Medical's orders were up substantially greater than 25% in Q1. He noted that overall company orders rose 8% (3% organic), with March being the strongest month and April remaining solid. Zapico also confirmed that price increases successfully offset inflation, resulting in a positive spread.

Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson & Co. inquired about the nature of project delays in the Electronic Instruments Group (EIG), the expected duration of OEM inventory destocking in the Electromechanical Group (EMG), and the company's price-to-cost ratio outlook for 2025.

Answer

Executive David Zapico explained that EIG project delays were consistent with recent trends but noted that orders remained strong and continued into January. He stated that while some EMG OEM customers have completed destocking, others have not, though order patterns are improving. For 2025, Zapico anticipates pricing of 1.5% to 2% will slightly more than offset inflation, which has mitigated.

Matt Summerville inquired about the destocking trends within AMETEK's medical and life sciences end markets and sought details on project delays affecting the Electronic Instruments Group (EIG).

Answer

Chairman and CEO David Zapico confirmed that destocking in the OEM, automation, and Paragon businesses was in line with expectations and noted that order trends are improving with a positive book-to-bill. Regarding EIG, he stated that project delays, primarily in Test and Measurement, played out as expected due to macro uncertainties, but the new opportunity funnel remains strong and organic order trends have shown sequential improvement over the past three quarters.

Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson & Co. inquired about the significant 370 basis point decline in Q1 gross margin, asking for a breakdown of the drivers and the expected margin cadence for the remainder of the fiscal year. He also requested details on order and backlog trends in key growth markets like EV battery and e-commerce.

Answer

President and CEO David Wilson explained that the gross margin decline was driven by a 180 basis point impact from tariffs, an unfavorable product mix with fewer high-margin automation products, and lower overall sales volume affecting factory absorption. Wilson expressed confidence in margin expansion through the year, particularly in Q4, despite a typical seasonal dip in Q3. He also noted a strong project funnel in battery production, e-commerce, aerospace, and defense, and mentioned a large oil and gas order for the Middle East.

Matt Summerville asked for a breakdown of the top-line impacts from the Mexico manufacturing relocation and project timing shifts, and also requested clarification on the potential aggregate order opportunity from PowerCo over the next few years.

Answer

President and CEO David Wilson detailed the sales impacts, attributing approximately $4 million to the linear motion factory move, $5 million to automation project timing, and a combined $6 million from precision conveyance and European linear motion projects. Regarding PowerCo, Wilson characterized the total potential as a "9-figure opportunity," indicating it could exceed $100 million in orders and sales.

Asked for clarification on the purpose of the $20 million cost containment program and requested details on the size and growth outlook of the company's data center business.

Answer

The company explained the cost program was a hedge against a volume downturn, but the current slowdown is slightly more than what was hedged for. They characterized the data center business as a small but growing exposure, important for specific units like AirTech, but not yet a major driver for the total company.

Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson asked for clarification on the impact of the proactive cost-out measures on the guidance. He also inquired about the sequential cadence of orders through the first four months of the year and any signs of customer pre-buying.

Answer

CFO Abhi Khandelwal clarified that the incremental $20 million in cost savings provides a buffer to absorb a potential 3-4% top-line decline versus their prior outlook, though this decline is not in the current guidance. CEO Eric Ashleman described the order cadence as 'pretty uniform,' with some attributable strength in the HST segment. He reiterated that any customer pre-buying was minimal, estimated at around $6 million to $8 million.

Matt Summerville asked for details on the order cadence for Process Flow Technologies (PFT), inquired about the value of acquired intangibles amortization for 2025, and questioned the near-term actionability of the M&A pipeline.

Answer

EVP & COO Alejandro Alcala described PFT orders as stable, with softness in chemicals offset by strength in cryogenics and water/wastewater. EVP & CFO Rich Maue stated the 2025 intangibles amortization is approximately $7 million and confirmed the company is considering a shift to cash EPS guidance. CEO Max Mitchell characterized the M&A funnel as robust and balanced but noted no deals were imminent in the next quarter.

Matt Summerville sought clarification on whether the $60 million tariff impact was a gross, unmitigated number. He also requested a deeper dive into PFT's end markets, including geographic and project vs. MRO trends, and asked about the expected earnings cadence for the rest of the year.

Answer

EVP and CFO Rich Maue confirmed the $60 million is the gross number that the company expects to substantially mitigate. EVP and COO Alejandro Alcala provided color on PFT, noting strength in the Americas and Middle East chemical markets, softness in Europe, and strong double-digit growth in cryogenics. For earnings cadence, Rich Maue guided for Q2 to be slightly down from Q1, with the full year being roughly equally weighted between the first and second half.

Matt Summerville from D.A. Davidson & Co. asked for details on recent M&A diligence activities, a breakdown of the 2025 Aerospace & Electronics (A&E) growth forecast by end market, the expected quarterly earnings cadence for 2025, and the accounting for the business interruption insurance recovery.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO Max Mitchell described two recent M&A targets—one in A&E, one in PFT—as high-quality businesses in the 'hundreds of millions' enterprise value range. EVP and CFO Rich Maue provided the A&E 2025 growth outlook: low-double-digits for commercial OE, mid-single-digits for military OE, and mid-to-high-single-digits for both commercial and military aftermarket. Maue also guided to a roughly 50/50 first-half/second-half earnings split, with Q1 being seasonally lowest. EVP and COO Alex Alcala confirmed the insurance recovery is included in guidance and expected in Q2 or Q3.

Matt Summerville asked for a precise quantification of the Boeing strike's impact in Q3 and Q4, and requested a deeper analysis of the Process Flow Technologies (PFT) segment's performance across major end markets and geographies, specifically for projects and MRO.

Answer

CFO Rich Maue and SVP Jason Feldman clarified the Boeing strike's Q3 impact was not material, but guided to a ballpark impact of $5 million in sales per month for Q4. Rich Maue then detailed that PFT's end market performance was consistent with prior quarters, highlighting project strength in the Americas and Middle East for chemical and pharma, while noting continued slowness in European chemical markets.

Matt Summerville from D.A. Davidson asked for an assessment of the actionability and quality of the current M&A pipeline. He also questioned if the company would consider transformational M&A and asked for clarity on the implied second-half outlook for the boiler business.

Answer

CEO Stephen Shafer described the M&A pipeline as active, with a few exciting spaces where A. O. Smith could be a good owner, though actionability varies. He did not rule out transformational M&A but noted the associated risks. Regarding boilers, Shafer explained the cautious back-half outlook is due to uncertainty about the extent of the first-half pre-buy and project timing.

Matt Summerville asked if the recent and historical performance in China alters the company's long-term growth algorithm and strategic view of the business. He also requested clarification on which water treatment channels are being de-emphasized and what the long-term organic growth trajectory for that business looks like.

Answer

CFO Chuck Lauber and CEO Kevin Wheeler acknowledged that China's recovery has been slower than anticipated and that government stimulus is needed to achieve their 5-6% growth target, but they remain confident in the long-term prospects. Regarding water treatment, management clarified they are de-emphasizing the retail channel to focus on the more attractive direct-to-consumer, dealer, and wholesale channels. They believe the business can return to double-digit growth, supported by both organic initiatives and acquisitions.

Matt Summerville asked for an early outlook on China for 2025 considering government stimulus, and questioned if the company is adequately capitalized for the pivot to electric from gas in North American commercial water heaters.

Answer

CEO Kevin Wheeler stated it was too early to quantify the impact of China's stimulus but viewed the government's actions as a positive sign. CFO Charles Lauber confirmed they are very comfortable with their capacity and market share in both electric and gas commercial products, describing the recent mix shift as an "unwind" of a prior gas-heavy trend.

Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson asked for a quantification of Nordson's annualized tariff exposure if it were completely unmitigated. He also requested a more precise breakdown of the Advanced Technology Solutions (ATS) business, asking how much is currently driven by high-performance computing compared to 12-18 months ago.

Answer

Executive VP & CFO Daniel Hopgood explained that the company's 'in region, for region' strategy mitigates most tariff risk, with 85-90% of sales having very little import/export exposure. He stated that the bigger concern is the potential impact of trade policies on overall end-market demand. President and CEO Sundaram Nagarajan estimated that approximately 50% of the ATS business is now tied to semiconductor and high-performance computing, a significant increase from his estimate of 20-30% a few years prior.

Matt Summerville asked for clarification on the performance of Nordson's electronics business in the quarter and inquired about the timeline for the interventional medical business to return to year-over-year growth following the destocking cycle.

Answer

CEO Sundaram Nagarajan explained that the Advanced Technology Solutions (ATS) segment's results were impacted by the timing of shipments, but noted that order entry and backlog grew by double-digits. CFO Daniel Hopgood addressed the medical business, stating that tough year-over-year comparisons will persist through the first half of the fiscal year, with an expected inflection to growth in Q3 and Q4.

Matt Summerville asked about the monthly order cadence through Q4 and into Q1, any discernible trends related to the election, and for baseline organic growth expectations for the IPS and MFS segments.

Answer

CFO Daniel Hopgood stated that current order patterns support the guidance and that there has been no discernible post-election shift, though some customers are showing uncertainty. He declined to provide specific segment guidance but implied that with flat overall organic growth and low-single-digit growth in ATS, the other segments would be slightly down. CEO Sundaram Nagarajan added that the company's operating model is built to perform in uncertain environments.

Matt Summerville inquired about a potential inflection in demand for self-checkout solutions and requested an update on the company's restructuring plan, including expected costs, benefits, and specific tariff mitigation actions.

Answer

Darren Wilson, President of Retail, confirmed continued interest in self-checkout driven by retailers' needs for cost and shrink efficiency, linking it to the broader platform strategy. Nick East, Chief Product Officer, added that their platform is hardware-agnostic, allowing software deployment on existing competitor hardware. Regarding restructuring, CFO Brian Webb-Walsh updated the cost estimate to $65 million to achieve $100 million in savings. CEO James Kelly stated that tariff mitigation involves sourcing from non-tariff markets and that the majority of the company's rightsizing is complete.

Matt Summerville requested an explanation for the delay in the hardware ODM transition and asked about the potential disruption from a trend of large retailers bringing point-of-sale software in-house.

Answer

CEO James Kelly explained the ODM delay was caused by system integration challenges at a U.S. facility, and he prioritized a smooth, non-disruptive transition for customers over a partial launch. Regarding in-sourcing, Kelly and another executive acknowledged the trend but expressed doubt it would become widespread due to the high cost, complexity, and continuous investment required, noting that NCR's platform can uniquely support retailers on any path.

Matt Summerville asked about the outlook for hardware sales, particularly for self-checkout, and customer feedback on the shift to an ODM model. He also questioned whether the company is seeing net site growth in its enterprise segments.

Answer

CEO David Wilkinson projected that while the overall hardware market has been weak, self-checkout demand remains strong, driven by software. He reported that customer feedback on the ODM transition has been positive. Wilkinson confirmed that NCR Voyix is currently net-adding sites across its segments and aims to accelerate this growth with its new strategy.

Speaking on behalf of Matt Summerville, Canyon Hayes asked for more detail on the equipment sales weakness, inquiring about specific product lines and geographies. He also questioned how Alta plans to return to its target leverage range, the potential for further cash generation from the rental fleet, and the viability of accretive M&A at current market valuations.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Tony Colucci explained that the equipment sales downturn was more acute than expected, primarily impacting heavy equipment lines in the Michigan and Florida geographies. He stated that deleveraging will involve both improving EBITDA and reducing debt, noting they are on pace with fleet reduction plans. Colucci affirmed that accretive M&A remains possible, even at current trading prices, depending on deal structure.

Matt Summerville sought to differentiate between Barnes' internal productivity issues and broader market challenges, such as material procurement, in the revised Aerospace OEM outlook. He also asked for comments on the company's strategic direction and potential portfolio changes, referencing recent reports that Barnes had hired a financial adviser.

Answer

President and CEO Thomas Hook clarified that current issues are related to 'labor efficiency' rather than the 'labor productivity' problems of the past. He explained Barnes is consciously retaining its workforce despite lower short-term OEM rates to be prepared for the eventual ramp-up, which creates inefficiency. The primary constraint is the supply chain for inputs like castings and forgings, not internal capacity. On strategy, Mr. Hook confirmed the company is actively evaluating all portfolio options to maximize enterprise value, citing the MB Aerospace acquisition and recent divestitures as proof, but stated there was nothing new to communicate at this time.

Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson asked for a breakdown of the Aerospace OEM outlook change between internal issues and market factors, and also requested comments on reports of the company exploring strategic options.

Answer

President and CEO Thomas Hook attributed the issue to "labor efficiency" rather than internal productivity failures. He explained Barnes is consciously retaining its workforce despite lower short-term OEM demand to be prepared for the eventual production ramp-up, which is currently limited by the external supply chain for castings and forgings. Regarding strategic options, Hook confirmed the company is actively evaluating all alternatives to unlock value, referencing the MB Aerospace acquisition and recent divestitures as part of this ongoing process, but had no new updates.

Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson & Co. questioned the basis for the Industrial segment's projected second-half improvement, the "core" status of remaining industrial businesses, the cadence of adjusted EPS for 2024, and specific performance drivers within Molding Solutions and Aerospace.

Answer

CEO Thomas Hook attributed the Industrial outlook to stronger foundational teams and commercial initiatives established in late 2023, not macro shifts. He confirmed an ongoing strategic review of all industrial assets. CFO Julie Streich detailed that $16 million in restructuring savings would be realized in 2024. Both executives projected a modest Q2 EPS improvement followed by a stronger second half, driven by transformation savings and commercial momentum. Hook also noted strong global demand for multi-cavity molds and a recovery in the hot runner business in EMEA and Asia.

Asked for details on the organic performance and headwinds for the Molding Solutions business, reasons for the shortfall in Aerospace organic growth and productivity challenges, clarification on the operating income impact from the Spring and Hanggi divestiture, and details on price realization in 2023 and expectations for 2024.

Answer

Molding Solutions saw strong multi-cavity mold demand but also weakness in the Chinese hot runner market, with mid-single-digit growth expected in '24. Aerospace had productivity issues at two sites which are being addressed, and the growth shortfall was partly due to these challenges. The divested businesses had temporarily inflated margins in '23 (~$20M op income on ~$155M sales for 3 quarters), making the impact seem large. The company realized ~$30M in price in '23 and expects ~$20M in '24, skewed towards aerospace.

The analyst requested details on Molding Solutions order activity by end market, a mathematical bridge for the company's deleveraging plan from 3.8x to 3.0x, and an update on aerospace productivity challenges and future restructuring savings.

Answer

In Molding Solutions, personal care and medical are strong but automotive hot runners are weak, especially in China. The deleveraging will be driven by cash generation, working capital improvements, and growth. Regarding aerospace, one challenged facility is improving while another still faces commercial issues. Previously announced restructuring savings of $22M are on track, with new actions adding another $3.5M-$4M annually.

Asked about the pricing assumptions used in EBITDA projections, the timing of the boric acid market deficit, the strategy for allocating output from the Small-Scale Boron Facility (SSBF), and the timeline for product qualification and sales.

Answer

The company's financial model assumes an initial price of $1,700 per ton for boric acid. The market is considered to be at a tipping point for a supply deficit. Initial SSBF output will be used for customer product qualification, a process expected to take 3-6 months, after which subsequent production will be sold into the spot market or to early offtake customers.