Michael Baker

Michael Baker inquired about the timing for Tractor Supply to leverage its past investments, such as in final mile delivery and the big barn initiative, and when these would contribute to a lower comparable store sales break-even point for operating margin.

Answer

CEO Hal Lawton emphasized that a low 2% comparable store sales growth is a strong inflection point for retail operating margin. He clarified that the final mile initiative is self-funding, with 2025 benefits covering 2026 rollout costs, and is expected to generate $10 million in freight cost savings. Similarly, direct sales investments from 2025 are funding 2026 expansion, preventing further dilution and enabling the achievement of the break-even point just above 2% comp.

Michael Baker inquired about the timing of leveraging past investments, such as final mile delivery and the big barn initiative, and when these efforts might lead to a lower comparable store sales break-even point for operating leverage.

Answer

CEO Hal Lawton emphasized that a low 2% comparable store sales growth represents a strong inflection point for operating margin in retail. He clarified that final mile and direct sales initiatives are self-funding in 2026, not incrementally dilutive, and are contributing to cost savings, which helps achieve the break-even point just above the 2% comp run rate.

Michael Baker sought clarification on the stock issuance details, specifically the number of shares and the pro forma ownership split. He also asked about the nature of the $172 million term loan, confirming if it represents FullBeauty's existing debt being assumed by DXL after a paydown. Additionally, he inquired about FullBeauty's sales and EBITDA trends over the past couple of years, noting a potential decline from previous reported figures.

Answer

Peter Stratton (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer, Destination XL Group) confirmed it is a stock issuance deal, with FullBeauty shareholders owning 55% and DXL shareholders owning 45% of the combined company. He clarified that the $172 million term loan is FullBeauty's debt being assumed by DXL, following a $92 million paydown by FullBeauty's owners, with the term debt extended to August 2029. Harvey Kanter (President, CEO, and Director, Destination XL Group) stated that FullBeauty's recent sales trends were similar to DXL's, emphasizing their focus on cost structure and marketing expenses in a challenging environment, and reiterating the strategic value of the merger for synergies.

Michael Baker sought clarification on the capital structure, specifically regarding new stock issuance, pro forma ownership, and whether the $172 million term loan represents existing FullBeauty debt. He also asked Jim Fogarty about FullBeauty's recent sales trends, top-line growth, or declines in EBITDA profitability over the last couple of years, noting a potential decrease from previous fiscal year 2023 numbers.

Answer

Peter Stratton (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer, Destination XL Group) confirmed that it is a stock issuance deal, with FullBeauty shareholders owning 55% and DXL shareholders 45% of the combined company. He clarified that the $172 million term loan is FullBeauty debt assumed by DXL, following a $92 million paydown by FullBeauty's owners, with maturity extended to August 2029. Harvey Kanter (President, CEO, and Director, Destination XL Group) responded to the question about FullBeauty's trends, stating that FullBeauty's recent comparable sales have been similar to DXL's, and they have actively managed cost structure and marketing expenses to optimize EBITDA flow-through in a challenging market.

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson & Co. inquired about the findings from the company's GLP-1 drug study, specifically asking if customers are losing enough weight to exit the big and tall size range. He also followed up by asking about DXL's market share performance relative to competitors in light of these trends.

Answer

CEO Harvey Kanter acknowledged that while some customers are sizing out of DXL's range due to GLP-1 drugs, the company cannot quantify the exact number. He emphasized that there are also tailwinds, such as increased shopping confidence and the new 'Fit Exchange' program, which has seen strong initial adoption. Regarding market share, Kanter explained that aggregated credit card data shows the overall men's apparel sector is weak, with many competitors performing similarly or worse than DXL, but this data does not provide specific insights into the effects of GLP-1 drugs.

Michael Baker asked about the drivers behind the implied fourth-quarter guidance improvement, the increased promotional activity in response to national brands' discounting, and for evidence supporting the company's claim of gaining market share.

Answer

CFO Peter Stratton attributed the improved Q4 outlook to easier year-over-year comparisons and optimism around holiday plans. CEO Harvey Kanter added that DXL is strategically testing promotions to drive incremental sales and has implemented a price match guarantee to compete with national brands. Regarding market share, Kanter cited third-party credit card data showing DXL is outperforming pure-play big and tall competitors, defining the performance as "less worse" in a down market.

Michael Baker from D.A. Davidson asked for insights into the expected P&L impacts for fiscal 2027, considering strategic shifts like delaying the new room launch, reducing showroom expansion, introducing a new sofa, and increased promotional activity, alongside the move to domestic manufacturing. He also questioned the prudence of the Q4 outlook despite reported industry improvements and strong holiday momentum.

Answer

CFO Keith Siegner stated that formal AOP planning for fiscal 2027 is underway, and more details would be provided in a couple of months. CEO Shawn Nelson elaborated that the strategy focuses on harvesting the existing brand for profitability and cash generation before a major new room launch, leveraging success from Snug and marketing adjustments. Shawn Nelson also clarified that while the industry shows slight improvement, the high-end segment where Lovesac competes is still experiencing significant declines, justifying a prudent Q4 outlook despite strong Black Friday/Cyber Monday performance.

Michael Baker asked for insights into the expected P&L impacts for fiscal 2027, considering strategic shifts like delaying a new room launch, reducing showroom expansion, introducing a new sofa, and potential promotional intensity.

Answer

CFO Keith Siegner stated that formal AOP planning for fiscal 2027 is underway, with more details to come. CEO Shawn Nelson emphasized that the strategy focuses on harvesting the existing brand and launching quick-to-market products to build a stronger financial position before a major new room launch, leveraging recent successes like Snugg and marketing adjustments.

Michael Allen Baker sought more detail on the changes to Lovesac's EBITDA outlook, specifically asking about the relative impact of tariffs versus promotional activity, and for greater specificity on why tariffs were worse than expected. He also asked for clarification on the timing of a 'new room' or big new launch and if it was being pushed out, and if there was any change to Lovesac's long-term outlook discussed at its Analyst Day.

Answer

President Mary Fox clarified that reciprocal tariff rates for key sourcing countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia doubled from 10% to 20% since the last report, impacting the guidance. CFO Keith Siegner added that the EBITDA change is primarily a gross margin issue, a 'perfect storm' of increased tariffs and higher promotional discounts due to the competitive backdrop. He explained that Q4's gross margin improvement is due to easier year-over-year comparisons from last year's ramped promotions and lower exposure to China-sourced goods. CEO Shawn Nelson confirmed that an early calendar 2026 launch for a new room is not realistic, indicating it's still some time away, with many exciting product announcements planned for the living room space first. Keith Siegner affirmed that the long-term outlook remains unchanged, acknowledging Fiscal 2026 as a 'wonky year' due to tariffs but expressing confidence in managing through distractions.

Michael Allen Baker inquired about the specific factors driving the revised EBITDA outlook, particularly the relative impact of tariffs versus promotional activity, and sought clarification on the timing of future 'new room' product launches and the long-term growth outlook presented at the analyst day.

Answer

President Mary Fox explained that reciprocal tariff rates for key sourcing countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia doubled from 10% to 20% or 19% since the last report, impacting the guidance. CFO Keith Siegner clarified that the EBITDA revision is primarily a gross margin topic, a 'perfect storm' of increased tariffs and higher promotional discounts due to competitive pressures. He noted that Q4's gross margin delta improves due to easier year-over-year comparisons from last year's ramped promotions and lower exposure to China-sourced goods. CEO Shawn Nelson confirmed that the 'new room' launch is still more than a year away, with many exciting living space products planned before then. He also affirmed that the long-term outlook from the analyst day remains unchanged, despite this year's tariff-related 'noise.'

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson asked about the promotional environment's impact on Q1 gross margins, the strategy to meet full-year margin guidance, and for initial sales color on the new EverCouch platform.

Answer

President & COO Mary Fox acknowledged a highly competitive promotional landscape but noted Lovesac's targeted offers remain effective. EVP & CFO Keith Siegner explained that full-year margin guidance is supported by mitigation levers like supply chain diversification and strategic pricing, which will have a greater impact in the second half of the year. Founder & CEO Shawn Nelson added that while it's too early for specific EverCouch sales data, internal goals are being exceeded and the product successfully expands their addressable market.

Michael Baker asked for quantification of the pent-up demand aiding the Q4 outlook, inquired about any market 'green shoots', and sought details on the new share repurchase program's philosophy and impact on guidance.

Answer

CFO Keith Siegner quantified the Q4 revenue catch-up from product delays as being in the 'single-digit millions.' CEO Shawn Nelson noted that while no major 'green shoots' are visible amid a highly promotional environment, Lovesac's own innovation is driving resilience. Siegner also detailed a recent decline in financing utilization due to new fees and explained the new buyback program aims to at least offset stock compensation dilution, which is not yet factored into guidance.

Michael Baker from D.A. Davidson Companies asked for details on the pace of sales trends throughout the third quarter and any impact from macro factors like government shutdowns or SNAP benefits.

Answer

Ken Seipel, Chairman and CEO, noted the consumer's remarkable resiliency, with no major impact from macro changes and consistent shopping patterns. He highlighted a strong start in August, led by the kids' division, and an accelerated finish in October. Heather Plutino, CFO, added that the quarter's pace was a 'barbell' shape, stronger at the beginning and end, with a tight range of 9.5-12% comparable sales growth.

Michael Baker asked for more detail on Citi Trends' merchandising opportunities and where incremental sales would come from to reach the $900 million sales target by 2027, specifically by product category or good/better/best tiers. He also inquired about the pace of sales through the quarter and any impact from macro factors like government shutdowns or SNAP benefits.

Answer

Ken Seipel (Chairman and CEO) explained that broad-based growth is expected from better-trend products, new young men's categories, maturing women's (juniors, plus size, trend), and footwear, aiming to return to historical levels. He also highlighted the kids' division's consistent growth and the extreme value opportunity, currently 2-3% of business, with a path to 10%. Regarding quarterly pace, Mr. Seipel noted consumer resiliency and consistent shopping patterns, with strong August and an accelerated October. Heather Plutino (CFO) added that the pace was a 'tight band,' stronger at the beginning and end of the quarter, but within a 9.5-12% range.

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson inquired about the SG&A expense outlook, specifically the impact of incentive compensation and the run rate for the second half of 2025 and beyond. He also asked about the expected incremental margin flow-through on sales and sought details on the new trend director role and its potential impact on merchandise.

Answer

CFO Heather Plutino clarified that the average quarterly SG&A of approximately $78 million for the back half is accurate, with a slight uptick in Q4 for holiday sales. She reiterated the company's long-term goal of 20-25% EBITDA flow-through on incremental sales. CEO Kenneth Seipel explained that the new trend director is translating consumer insights into tangible styles, with early positive results in men's apparel, and expects a broader impact on assortments by Q4.

Michael Baker from D.A. Davidson inquired about the evolution of Citi Trends' off-price strategy, seeking to quantify the mix of closeouts versus 'extreme value' products and its future sales contribution. He also asked for the rationale behind the full-year comp guidance, which implies a back-half slowdown despite strong Q1 results.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Seipel clarified the off-price strategy, distinguishing between historical end-of-season closeouts and the new focus on 'extreme value' branded products, which aims to eventually contribute an incremental 10% to top-line sales. Regarding guidance, Seipel explained that the back half faces tougher year-over-year comparisons and the company is managing to a two-year stack comp, which will moderate from the strong 13% in Q1.

Michael Baker asked for a detailed breakdown of the components driving the projected $19-23 million year-over-year EBITDA improvement for fiscal 2025 and sought clarification on how the 'low base of sales' plan relates to the low-to-mid-single-digit comp guidance.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Seipel explained that the company has a low-base operating budget, and sales above that baseline are expected to generate approximately 25% flow-through to EBITDA, with a stretch plan offering even higher flow-through. CFO Heather Plutino added that the key drivers are sales growth, a minimum of 220 basis points in gross margin expansion, and SG&A leverage. Seipel clarified that the low-to-mid-single-digit comp guidance encompasses the baseline plan, and the guided EBITDA range reflects the potential flow-through from achieving higher sales tiers within that outlook.

Michael Baker inquired about the long-term EBITDA margin target for the business, the normalized quarterly SG&A run rate, and asked CEO Ken Seipel to compare the current turnaround to his past experiences.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Seipel stated that returning to historical EBITDA margins of 5-6% is a primary near-term goal, with a potential path beyond that. CFO Heather Plutino identified a normalized quarterly SG&A run rate of approximately $73 million, which Seipel added is a highly fixed base that should provide significant leverage as sales grow. Seipel compared the turnaround by noting the common theme of refocusing on the core customer, the unique challenge of fixing more broken operational fundamentals than usual, and the uniquely positive and quick response from customers to strategic changes.

Michael Baker asked for more detail on the Q2 comparable sales miss, questioning whether it was driven by fewer items per basket or lower prices from markdowns, and which specific merchandise categories underperformed. He also followed up on the accounting for inventory shrink, asking if it will remain a drag on gross margin in coming quarters and if it's factored into the second-half outlook.

Answer

CFO Heather Plutino explained that while customer traffic increased, the basket size (units per transaction) was under pressure, causing the comp decline. She noted that footwear continued to be a drag, while children's apparel, home, and impulse categories performed well. Regarding shrink, Plutino confirmed that the higher accrual rate will remain a drag versus last year but is fully incorporated into the second-half gross margin guidance of approximately 39%.

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson & Co. inquired about Citi Trends' merchandising strategy, specifically the evolution of its off-price and closeout model toward an in-season 'extreme value' approach. He also questioned the full-year comparable sales guidance, noting it appeared conservative given the strong 9.9% growth in Q1 and positive current quarter trends.

Answer

CEO Ken Seipel clarified the off-price strategy, distinguishing between traditional end-of-season closeouts and the new focus on 'extreme value' products—highly branded, current-season items offered at significant discounts. He stated the long-term goal is for this segment to add an incremental 10% to top-line sales. Regarding guidance, Seipel explained that the back half of the year faces tougher comparisons and the company is managing the business on a two-year stack basis, which is expected to moderate. He also cited macro uncertainty as a reason for a prudent outlook.

Michael Baker asked for clarification on what constitutes a favorable market environment for A-Mark, the current impact of tariffs on the business, and the primary drivers behind the strong gross margin in the quarter.

Answer

CEO Gregory N. Roberts explained that volatility and uncertainty in equity markets, along with macroeconomic fear, create a good environment for A-Mark, noting current high equity returns are challenging. He detailed how tariffs cause consternation, disrupt metal borrowing, increase carry costs, and affect hedge positions by occasionally flipping contango to backwardation. Roberts attributed the strong gross margin to the integration of higher-margin businesses from recent acquisitions and emphasized ongoing efforts to optimize SG&A and reduce inventory to lower carry costs.

Michael Baker from D.A. Davidson asked about the macroeconomic conditions that define a "good environment" for A-Mark Precious Metals, the current impact of tariffs on the business, and the primary drivers behind the strong gross profit margin in the fiscal fourth quarter.

Answer

CEO Gregory N. Roberts explained that volatility and uncertainty in equity markets, similar to the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, create a favorable environment for A-Mark, contrasting with the current "too good" equity market. He noted that higher spot prices, driven by central banks, haven't translated into FOMO for DTC customers. Roberts detailed how tariffs cause consternation and disruption in metal sourcing and hedging, leading to higher carry costs and affecting profitability. Regarding gross margin, Roberts attributed the increase primarily to the integration of higher-margin businesses acquired, acknowledging that while these add gross profit, the company is focused on improving efficiencies and reducing SG&A and inventory carry costs.

Michael Baker asked about the ideal market environment for A-Mark, the current impact of tariffs on the business, and the primary drivers behind the strong gross margin performance in the quarter.

Answer

CEO Greg Roberts clarified that volatility and uncertainty in equity markets, like the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, create a favorable environment for A-Mark. He noted that tariffs cause disruption and higher carrying costs, affecting hedge positions and sometimes leading to backwardation. Roberts attributed the strong gross margin to the acquisition of higher-margin businesses, emphasizing ongoing efforts to improve efficiencies, reduce SG&A, and optimize inventory to lower carry costs.

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson & Co. questioned the basis for management's optimism that macroeconomic headwinds would shift and asked for more detail on the ratio of customer buybacks versus new sales.

Answer

Executive Gregory Roberts clarified that his optimism stems from observing a decrease in customer selling pressure that had been prevalent during periods of record-high metal prices. He noted that a drop in spot prices historically stimulates buying demand and improves premiums, and that the buy-to-sell ratio had improved significantly in recent weeks.

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson asked for an update on key user metrics for the GameChanger platform. He also inquired if there were any changes to the synergy targets for the Foot Locker acquisition and whether any store divestitures would be required.

Answer

President & CEO Lauren Hobart reported that GameChanger had 7.4 million unique active users in Q2 and is on track for nearly 50% revenue growth for the year. She highlighted its growing integration with the DICK'S Media Network. On the Foot Locker deal, she confirmed the synergy target remains $100 million to $125 million and stated it was too soon to comment on other specifics like divestitures.

Michael Baker asked about the strategic impact of the investment in Unrivaled Sports on the GameChanger business and questioned why Nike's partnership with Amazon might succeed this time.

Answer

President and CEO Lauren Hobart and Executive VP & CFO Navdeep Gupta detailed the synergy, explaining that Unrivaled provides on-the-ground access to the youth sports ecosystem, complementing GameChanger's digital platform and tapping into a $40 billion TAM. Regarding Nike, Hobart deferred to them but noted their current efforts are aimed at cleaning up the marketplace.

Michael Baker asked if there has been a strategic shift toward more lifestyle products and whether this is chain-wide. He also humorously inquired if the Boston Celtics' championship win provided a material sales boost.

Answer

President and CEO Lauren Hobart clarified that while the company remains rooted in performance sports, it has successfully expanded its assortment to include the lifestyle products athletes wear off the field. CFO Navdeep Gupta confirmed this is a chain-wide strategy, with 90% of stores now featuring a premium footwear experience. Lauren Hobart stated that while exciting, the Celtics' win was not a material contributor to the quarter's results.

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson asked management to reconcile their aggressive stance on gaining market share with a more cautious approach to inventory ordering. He also questioned if stress on lower-income consumers could paradoxically drive new member traffic to BJ's.

Answer

CEO Bob Eddy clarified that the two points are distinct: aggressiveness applies to pricing and value to win share, while inventory caution is targeted specifically at high-discretionary, tariff-impacted categories like holiday decor to manage markdown risk. On the consumer question, Mr. Eddy agreed, noting that lower-income members are performing better than historically, which suggests the value proposition is resonating strongly and could indeed attract new, value-seeking shoppers to the club.

Michael Baker inquired about the long-term potential for BJ's club count, whether it could become a nationwide concept, and how it performs when entering a market as the third wholesale club player.

Answer

EVP, Strategy and Development, Bill Werner explained that as the company gains market share, its site selection models continue to identify more opportunities for successful clubs in both existing and adjacent markets, such as the planned entry into Dallas-Fort Worth. CEO Robert Eddy added that the entire wholesale club industry is gaining share from traditional grocery, and while BJ's will maintain a rational growth pace funded by cash flow, they see no indicators that would suggest slowing down their expansion.

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson & Co. questioned the $30 million in preopening costs for the back half of the year, asking if it was due to delays and if it contributed to the lower-end EPS guidance. He also requested more detail on the 'growing pains' from assortment changes and the expected timing of the payoff.

Answer

CEO Robert Eddy and EVP William Werner confirmed the higher preopening costs are due to an accelerated new club opening schedule (11 clubs vs. 5 last year), which pressures near-term EPS but is a positive long-term investment. Eddy clarified that 'growing pains' include increased labor for resets and markdowns to clear old inventory, with the benefits expected to materialize next year as categories that have undergone the process are already showing better performance.

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson & Co. asked how to reconcile the strategy of being aggressive on market share with being cautious on back-half inventory ordering. He also inquired if stress on lower-income consumers could paradoxically drive new member traffic from those seeking value.

Answer

CEO Bob Eddy clarified that being aggressive relates to pricing and value to gain share, while inventory caution is specific to highly discretionary, tariff-impacted categories to manage markdown risk. On the second point, Eddy noted that lower-income members have shown strong loyalty and performance, suggesting the company's value proposition is resonating well and could attract more of these consumers.

Michael Baker from D.A. Davidson & Co. requested a deeper dive into the Fresh 2.0 initiative, asking to quantify the sales lift from the new meat and seafood launch and the relative size of this opportunity compared to produce.

Answer

CEO Robert Eddy explained that meat and produce are similarly sized categories and that the company anticipates a comparable lift to the high single to low double-digit growth seen in produce. He emphasized the strategic goal is to create a '1 plus 1 equals 3' effect on member trips and loyalty, rather than it being a margin-focused story.

Michael Baker requested a deeper dive into the Fresh 2.0 initiative, asking about the sales lift seen in meat and seafood and the relative size of this opportunity compared to produce and future categories like dairy and bakery.

Answer

CEO Bob Eddy explained that the meat and produce categories are of a comparable size. He noted that while it's too early to quantify a multiplier effect, they anticipate a similar lift in meat as seen in produce, which drove high-single to low-double-digit unit movement. He described the overall Fresh 2.0 initiative as a material opportunity to change the business long-term by making BJ's a weekly shopping destination for members.

Michael Baker asked for a deeper dive into the Fresh 2.0 initiative, specifically requesting the sales lift seen in meat and seafood and the relative size of that opportunity compared to produce.

Answer

CEO Bob Eddy stated that the meat and produce categories are of a comparable size and that they anticipate a similar high single to low double-digit lift in meat. He noted it's too early to measure the combined 'multiplier effect' on member trips but expressed excitement about the potential to materially change the business long-term.

Michael Baker asked for quantification of the sales lift from the Fresh 2.0 initiative in meat and seafood and the relative size of this opportunity compared to produce.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Bob Eddy explained that the meat and produce categories are of a comparable size. While produce has been driving high single-digit to low double-digit unit growth, he anticipates a similar result in meat. He emphasized that it's too early to measure the combined '1+1=3' effect on member trips and loyalty, but the strategic goal is to solidify BJ's as a weekly shopping destination.

Michael Baker from D.A. Davidson & Co. inquired about the long-term potential for BJ's store count, whether it could become a nationwide concept, and how it performs as a third entrant in a market with existing club competition.

Answer

EVP, Strategy and Development, William Werner explained that as the company gains market share, its models reveal more opportunities in both existing and adjacent markets, such as the planned entry into Dallas-Fort Worth. CEO Robert Eddy added that the entire club channel is gaining share from grocery stores, and while BJ's will remain prudent with capital, they see no reason to slow their measured expansion pace.

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson & Co. asked for clarification on the new 15% U.S. tariff on products from Jordan, inquired if shipping delays caused a sales shift from Q1 to Q2, and requested details on long-term expansion plans.

Answer

CFO Gilbert Lee confirmed the 15% tariff is active but remains advantageous compared to the 20-60% rates from Asia. He noted that any sales shift due to shipping delays was not significant. Regarding expansion, Lee explained that major projects are cautiously being tabled until fiscal 2027 due to regional and tariff uncertainties, with the current focus on smaller, incremental capacity increases at existing facilities.

Asked for clarification on the new 15% tariff on products from Jordan, inquired about the impact of shipment delays on sales shifting between quarters, and requested details on long-term expansion plans beyond the already announced capacity increases.

Answer

The company confirmed the 15% tariff, noting it's still advantageous compared to Asian countries. They stated the sales shift due to delays was not significant. Regarding expansion, they are cautiously planning a major expansion for fiscal 2027, focusing in the current year on optimizing the existing 10-15% capacity increase and the Al Hasa facility project.

Inquired about overall apparel demand from the U.S. consumer, the timing of recognizing revenue from the $6 million in delayed shipments, and the expected run rate for SG&A expenses going forward.

Answer

Customer feedback on demand is mixed; while some are absorbing inventory, about 60% have done so and are placing new orders. The $6 million in delayed shipments was mostly shipped in January and is included in the Q4 revenue growth guidance of 50-53%. A low $4 million SG&A run rate is a reasonable estimate going forward.

Michael Baker asked for commentary on U.S. consumer apparel demand and inventory levels, the timing for recognizing the $6 million in delayed shipments, and whether the low $4 million range is a good run rate for SG&A expenses.

Answer

Executive Eric Tang noted mixed customer feedback on demand, stating that while some are absorbing inventory, about 60% have done so and are placing new orders. CFO Gilbert Kwong-Yiu Lee confirmed the $6 million in delayed shipments were mostly recognized in Q4 and are part of the 50-53% growth guidance for that quarter. Mr. Lee also affirmed that a low $4 million quarterly SG&A run rate is a reasonable estimate, though it depends on sales volume.

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson & Co. inquired about HireQuest's M&A strategy, asking for an update on the potential TrueBlue transaction and the broader acquisition pipeline. He also questioned the company's market share performance in light of declining system-wide sales and sought more details on the reasons behind MRI franchisees not renewing their agreements.

Answer

President, CEO & Director Rick Hermanns stated that while HireQuest remains interested in a transaction with TrueBlue, there are no new updates. He emphasized that the company is actively exploring other M&A opportunities and has significant 'dry powder.' Regarding market share, Hermanns explained that the non-renewal of several large MRI franchisees impacted the overall numbers, but individual franchisee performance is generally in line with the market. He attributed the MRI non-renewals to the network's historical trend of shrinkage and its looser affiliation model, which makes it easier for franchisees to operate independently compared to other HireQuest brands.

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson & Co. asked for the specific drivers behind the improving business environment and how the resolution of the U.S. election could further boost performance. He also inquired about which specific business lines and geographic regions were showing the most strength.

Answer

Executive Richard Hermanns attributed the positive momentum to several factors: recent interest rate reductions easing concerns in the commercial real estate market, changes in federal immigration policy reducing competition from undocumented workers, and franchisees returning to pre-pandemic business development habits. Hermanns noted that commercial construction has been consistently strong and highlighted robust performance in Texas, Florida, Georgia, and the Mid-Atlantic, with the skilled trades division also picking up.

Michael Baker sought clarification on the 'flat sales' comment for Q3, asking about the comparison base. He also requested a breakdown of the 3.9% core sales growth in Q2 between price increases and unit volume.

Answer

CFO Jesse Weaver clarified that while July is a seasonally slow month, demand is holding up relative to the prior year on a gross basis, and these trends are factored into the updated guidance. Regarding the Q2 growth mix, he stated that unit growth has been positive year-to-date and that volumes were strong in the second quarter, with pricing also contributing to the overall 3.9% core growth. He reiterated that the company is taking a conservative stance on unit volume for the second half but has not yet seen significant unit degradation from price increases.

Michael Baker followed up on the sell-in versus sell-out dynamic, asking what would drive the expected growth in Q1 2025. He also inquired about Q4 marketing plans and the margin impact of onboarding the R&R marketing firm.

Answer

CEO Matt Stevenson attributed expected Q1 2025 growth to the culmination of transformation efforts, a soft prior-year Q1 comp, and market normalization. He noted Q4 marketing involves better execution of existing holiday programs. Regarding R&R, he explained they have a history with Holley's brands and will add B2B scale, with the resulting growth expected to offset the investment.

Michael Baker from D.A. Davidson & Co. asked about the comp sales pace throughout the second quarter and questioned the implied significant ramp in performance from Q3 to Q4 based on the company's guidance.

Answer

President and CEO Jason Potter responded that the current comp run rate is consistent with the provided guidance and that the company is seeing improvement. He reiterated that the initiatives being rolled out are expected to build momentum as the year progresses. He also clarified that the full-year guidance includes a 53rd week in the fourth quarter, which provides a leverage benefit to the P&L.

Michael Baker asked for quantification of the Easter holiday shift, whether recent consumer behavior changes were impacting sales, and for an update on the company's price gaps versus competitors.

Answer

CEO Jason Potter acknowledged that April trends were 'a little soft' but found it difficult to attribute the cause, citing general consumer uncertainty. Regarding pricing, he stated that after recent work to sharpen value, he feels they are in a 'good spot' but that monitoring competitive gaps is an ongoing process.

Michael Baker from D.A. Davidson & Co. inquired about the long-term EBITDA margin potential, asking if the current strategic changes are designed to return the company to its historical 6% to mid-6% range.

Answer

CFO Chris Miller acknowledged the company's history of strong performance and the significant growth opportunities ahead. However, he stated that while they have provided guidance for the current year, they are not prepared to comment on long-term margin targets beyond 2025 at this time.

Michael Baker asked if the peak 2023 gross margin of 31.3% was an anomaly due to post-COVID supply chain disruptions, and whether the current 30.5% target is a result of a normalized environment or a conscious decision to reinvest.

Answer

Interim President and CEO Eric Lindberg stated that the company has historically operated within a narrow margin band of roughly 30% to 31.5% and that he would 'never say that we'll never see these margins again.' He explained that the business model provides flexibility to manage margins weekly and that the current level reflects a strategic choice to reinvest in price to drive customer traffic, rather than a permanent structural change.

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson & Co. inquired about the key drivers for the significant revenue ramp required to meet the three-year outlook for 2026-2027. He also asked about the year-over-year decline in Walmart's sales concentration and competition from brands like Fire Department Coffee. In a follow-up, he sought color on energy drink sell-through and the impact of the KDP customer merchandising agreement.

Answer

CEO Chris Mondzelewski and CFO Matthew Amigh confirmed the long-term guidance, citing growth across all business segments and significant runway for ACV expansion in packaged coffee and RTD. Mondzelewski addressed Walmart, explaining the sales concentration figure is affected by shipment timing and that scanner takeaway remains strong at nearly 10% growth. Regarding energy drinks, he noted positive retailer conversations and strong velocity growth, confirming the KDP agreement will be key for the 2026 expansion plan.

Michael Baker asked about the potential impact of an economic slowdown on Black Rifle Coffee's business and questioned the reasons for the increased gross margin impact from trade spend in the updated guidance.

Answer

CEO Chris Mondzelewski explained that an economic slowdown typically creates a tailwind as consumers shift from coffee shops to at-home super-premium brands. CFO Steve Kadenacy clarified that the higher trade spend is primarily for driving the new energy drink launch and promotional pricing in grocery to encourage trial. He also noted that higher-than-expected volumes required purchasing some coffee on the spot market, impacting margins.

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson & Co. asked for an update on the timing of new retail partner rollouts previously delayed to early 2025 and sought clarification on the revised free cash flow guidance.

Answer

Executive Chris Mondzelewski confirmed that conversations with major retailers are progressing well, with a target of 70-75% ACV, and noted the recent addition of Food Lion and Harris Teeter. CFO Stephen Kadenacy explained the free cash flow guidance was adjusted due to a strategic inventory build of K-Cups to secure future cost savings, but he still anticipates robust cash flow for the year.

Michael Baker from D.A. Davidson asked about the implied EBITDA growth slowdown in the second half guidance and whether it signals increased investments. He also questioned how Carvana could accelerate growth to meet its 3 million unit goal in five years.

Answer

CEO Ernie Garcia reiterated the strong full-year guidance without providing more detail, framing it as a milestone toward their long-term goals. He clarified the 3 million unit target implies a ~40% CAGR over five years, which is consistent with their current 41% growth rate, and expressed confidence given their small market share and improving operational efficiency.

Michael Baker from D.A. Davidson asked if the guidance for the second half of the year implies a slowdown due to increased investments or the law of large numbers. He also questioned how the company could accelerate growth to meet its 3 million unit target in five years.

Answer

CEO Ernie Garcia reiterated the strong full-year guidance without providing more detail, emphasizing it as a milestone toward the long-term goal. He clarified the 3 million unit target implies a 40% CAGR over five years, which is in line with the current growth rate, and expressed confidence given the company's small market share and improving operational efficiency.

Michael Baker from D.A. Davidson & Co. asked about the potential impact of new car tariffs on the used car business and what would be required for Carvana to raise its long-term adjusted EBITDA margin outlook beyond the current 8% to 13.5% range.

Answer

CEO Ernie Garcia stated they would not speculate on tariffs and are running the business as usual. On margins, he clarified they are targeting the high end of the existing range, and the path there is clear. The key strategic decision is how to allocate future fundamental gains between customer value and bottom-line profit, with the current bias toward sharing gains with customers to drive long-term growth.

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson & Co. asked for clarification on the updated guidance, specifically why top-line expectations were narrowed downward while profitability was revised up. He also questioned the nature of promotional activity, noting that A&P spending as a percentage of sales was down year-to-date.

Answer

CEO Steve Brass explained the revenue guidance adjustment was due to a clearer year-end view, tough comparables, and specific regional factors like a manufacturing change in the Middle East and volatility in Turkey. CFO Sara Hyzer added that the improved profitability outlook is driven by favorable foreign exchange rates, particularly the Euro, and other positive non-operating items. Regarding promotions, Brass differentiated between brand-building efforts and retailer-specific promotions, stating that the timing of the latter can vary and that a strong promotional plan is in place for the U.S. in Q4.

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson & Co. asked for a big-picture assessment of the competitive landscape, suggesting that while pressure from some traditional competitors may be easing, it could be intensifying from online players like Amazon and TikTok.

Answer

President & CEO Kecia Steelman opined that the competitive environment remains consistently intense, but the nature of it has shifted as Ulta is now cycling past the peak of physical store expansion from key rivals. She highlighted Ulta's own upcoming marketplace launch and its unique differentiators like brand exclusivity and in-store experiences. CFO Paula Oyibo added that the company's ability to compete has improved this year due to the 'Ulta Beauty Unleashed' plan.

Michael Baker inquired about Ulta's exposure to potential tariffs, particularly from Europe, and asked for a reminder of how the price versus cost dynamic played out during the 2018 tariff cycle.

Answer

CFO Paula Oyibo stated that Ulta's direct import exposure is limited, with only about 1% of shipments being direct imports. She assured that the team is actively scenario planning and monitoring the situation, similar to how they successfully navigated the 2018-2019 period.

Michael Baker asked about the pace of market share losses in the prestige category, seeking to understand if the performance gap between Ulta Beauty and its competitors is widening.

Answer

CEO David Kimbell responded that while the prestige category remains pressured, particularly in makeup and hair, the dynamics of share loss are not worsening. He attributed the quarter's overall performance to the combination of a moderating category, sustained competitive pressures, and the specific operational and promotional factors discussed on the call.

Michael Baker from D.A. Davidson asked about potential demand pull-forward, market share performance, and whether recent tariffs have altered consumer behavior.

Answer

CFO Matt Bilunas acknowledged a likely minor pull-forward in demand, though difficult to quantify. CEO Corie Barry added that while there may have been a slight market share loss in a quiet Q1, she expects full-year gains in computing and gaming. She reiterated that consumer behavior remains consistent with recent quarters: resilient but value-focused and making trade-offs.

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson & Co. inquired about the next major product cycle expected to drive growth after laptops and asked for clarification on how the fiscal calendar shift impacted monthly sales trends in Q2.

Answer

CEO Corie Barry described the next phase as an 'evolution, not a revolution,' where AI capabilities will proliferate across all devices with a screen, including tablets, phones, and TVs, driving demand for higher processing power. She pointed to Apple Intelligence as a key example of a cross-device catalyst. CFO Matt Bilunas clarified that while there was a quarterly calendar shift impact, most of it occurred in May, meaning July's flat performance was 'relatively not impacted' by the shift.

Michael Baker asked about the overall consumer environment in early 2025, how Build-A-Bear's business typically performs during a consumer slowdown, and for an update on the progress being made in its e-commerce business.

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CEO Sharon John responded that quarter-to-date results were positive, with store traffic outpacing national trends. She noted the toy industry is often recession-resistant, and Build-A-Bear is well-positioned due to its diversified business, with 40% of sales from collectors and a third from birthdays. Regarding e-commerce, she emphasized the long-term strategy is to build a fully integrated omni-channel organization, leveraging new systems and leadership to grow the total business, rather than just focusing on the e-commerce channel in isolation.

Michael Baker asked about the back-half guidance, which implies significant acceleration, questioning the underlying assumptions and potential risks given negative consumer data points. He also sought clarification on the dramatic swing in web demand from a 28% decline in Q2 to double-digit growth quarter-to-date in Q3.

Answer

CFO Vojin Todorovic confirmed the back-half weighted guidance was consistent with initial expectations, driven by the acceleration of new store openings, strong commercial business growth, and more favorable prior-year comparisons. Regarding web demand, he confirmed the swing from -28.2% in Q2 to strong double-digit growth in Q3-to-date. CEO Sharon John attributed the improvement to a combination of enhanced SEO strategies and, most significantly, the timing of major product launches like the online-exclusive Pumpkin Kitty release.

Michael Baker asked if extending gas station hours has resulted in incremental gallon sales and inquired about Costco's current price gaps relative to competitors.

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Executive Gary Millerchip confirmed that they have been pleased with the member response to extended gas hours and are seeing improved usage. Regarding price gaps, he stated that Costco feels very good about its competitive positioning, focusing proactively on lowering prices for members rather than reacting to competitors.

Michael Baker asked about the competitive pricing environment, especially in grocery, and how Costco's price gaps are holding up. He also questioned if falling gas prices hurt store traffic, given the deceleration in gallon growth.

Answer

Gary Millerchip, an executive, stated that Costco aims to be its own biggest competitor by being the first to lower prices, making most investments proactive. While the promotional environment is increasing, especially in appliances, he feels good about Costco's price position. Ron Vachris, an executive, addressed the gas question, stating that while gallon growth was softer, he doesn't see it as a concern and is not seeing traffic drop off in the warehouse as a result.

Michael Baker asked about the comparable sales lift being observed from the new market hub stores and the rationale behind the guidance assumption that the economy will improve in the second half of 2025.

Answer

CEO Shane O'Kelly confirmed that test-and-control data shows a positive comparable sales lift for both the hub stores and the stores they service. CFO Ryan Grimsland clarified that the guidance assumes a return to 'normal market conditions' rather than a significant improvement, a view he noted is consistent with external forecasts.

Michael Baker asked for an update on the consumer environment, referencing past management comments, and questioned why the number of rollbacks appeared lower than in previous quarters.

Answer

CEO Doug McMillon clarified his previous 'storm clouds' comment, stating the feared downturn never materialized and he now sees consistency. Walmart U.S. CEO John Furner described the consumer as 'consistent' and 'resilient,' adding that the team is prepared for any economic environment by focusing on its omnichannel strategy.

Michael Baker from D.A. Davidson sought clarification on the early Q1 sales trend versus the tough comparison and asked why O'Reilly isn't seeing the same inflation pickup that is appearing in broader CPI data.

Answer

CFO Jeremy Fletcher clarified that while day-to-day business volumes were consistent with the end of Q4, the actual Q1 comp growth rate is lower due to the difficult comparison to strong weather-driven sales in January 2024. Regarding inflation, Fletcher explained that O'Reilly's pricing adjustments are more gradual than in other industries due to its slow-turning inventory, and the company avoids speculating on future inflation in its guidance until it materializes in their costs.

Michael Baker of D.A. Davidson & Co. asked if a competitor's price investments were impacting AutoZone's average ticket, and sought clarification on the Q1 comp outlook and the store growth target for fiscal 2025.

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CEO Philip Daniele stated that competitor pricing has not caused a radical change and that average ticket is primarily driven by product cost inflation, not competitive actions. He clarified that Q1 trends are expected to be similar to Q4, with modest improvement anticipated later in the year. The company is targeting over 20 Mega-Hub openings in FY25, mostly in the second half.