Michael Hall's questions to Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) leadership • Q4 2024
Question
Michael Hall from Baird asked for the specific impact of the Q4 risk adjustment true-up on the Medicare MCR and sought more comfort on 2025 Medicare pricing given the portfolio's shift toward D-SNP. He also questioned the confidence in Marketplace margins given the strong growth and FTR recheck risks.
Answer
CFO Mark Keim did not quantify the risk adjustment impact but stated that the D-SNP trends from late 2024 were factored into conservative 2025 bids, positioning the business as a 'segue' into high-growth duals products in 2026. For Marketplace, Keim clarified that recent growth is less dramatic off a Q4 2024 baseline and that the 70% renewal rate and strong effectuation rates in the mid-80s provide confidence in their guidance, which already nets out attrition assumptions like FTR.