Steven Fisher

Steven Fisher requested clarification on Deere's confidence in the flat industry expectation for South America in 2026, particularly regarding the potential for lower interest rates, and asked for any current indications of improved housing activity supporting the small ag segment.

Answer

Josh Beal, Director of Investor Relations, acknowledged a mix of caution and optimism in South America, with interest rates being a significant factor. He noted easing inflation expectations could lead to a couple of points reduction in the benchmark rate in 2026, which would impact the market. He also highlighted strong order books in Brazil, extending five months out. Josh Jepsen, CFO, added that tariff relief on high-value crops in Brazil bodes well for small and mid-tractor businesses. For small ag, Josh Beal explained the forecast assumes a modest low single-digit increase in U.S. home sales in 2026, supporting the turf business, with Josh Jepsen adding that potential interest rate cuts could further benefit housing-related segments.

Steven Fisher sought clarification on the flat outlook for South America, considering recent caution and potential interest rate reductions, and asked for indications of housing activity improvement impacting the small ag segment.

Answer

Josh Beal, Director of Investor Relations, explained that South America's flat guide reflects a mix of caution and optimism, with easing inflation expectations potentially leading to interest rate reductions. He noted strong order books in Brazil, extending five months out. For small ag, the forecast assumes modest growth in turf driven by a low single-digit increase in U.S. home sales in 2026. Josh Jepsen, CFO, added that potential interest rate cuts could positively impact housing, earth-moving, compact construction, and turf.

Steven Fisher asked about the drivers behind the implied positive price realization for the Production & Precision Ag segment in Q4 and whether the market could absorb higher prices.

Answer

Josh Beal, Director of Investor Relations, attributed the Q4 pricing inflection to lapping prior year incentives and the initial shipments of higher-priced model year 2026 equipment, including sprayers and products for Brazil. CFO Joshua Jepsen emphasized that pricing in Brazil has returned to positive mid-single-digit growth, providing a meaningful lift.

Steven Fisher requested a quantification of the excess used equipment inventory, particularly for high-horsepower tractors, and asked for a timeline to normalize these levels.

Answer

Executive Josh Rohleder stated that while total units have declined modestly, the main challenge is the inventory mix, with the proportion of late-model used equipment being roughly double the normal level. He expects it will take several more quarters to normalize. CFO Josh Jepsen added that the overall fleet continues to age, which should support replacement demand and help absorb used inventory over time.

Steven Fisher of UBS Group AG requested a more specific breakdown of the major puts and takes bridging Jacobs' margin expansion between fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026, including cost savings, operating leverage, and investments in AI and digital. He also inquired about changes in data center assignments, customer requests, and the shift between international and domestic projects when comparing the outlook for FY26 versus FY25.

Answer

CFO Venk Nathamuni attributed FY25 margin expansion to operating leverage and cost actions, with FY26 expansion driven by gross margin improvements from global delivery and commercial models, alongside maintained operating leverage. Chair and CEO Bob Pragada noted expanding data center interest in the Middle East and Europe, in addition to the US. He highlighted an expanded scope to include innovation within the server rack, power requirements, and reclaimed water solutions, with the data center pipeline increasing fivefold in the last quarter.

Steven Fisher asked for a more specific bridge for margin expansion between fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2026, including major puts and takes like cost savings, operating leverage, and investments in AI/digital. He also inquired about changes in data center assignments, customer requests, and the international versus domestic mix when entering fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2025.

Answer

Chair and CEO Bob Pragada explained that after 110 basis points of expansion in FY2025, FY2026 guidance of 50-80 basis points will be driven by gross margins from global delivery and commercial models, including AI adoption, alongside a commitment to grow OpEx slower than revenue. For data centers, Bob Pragada noted expanding interest in the Middle East and Europe, in addition to the strong U.S. market. Scope has broadened to include white and gray space, power requirements, reclaimed water, and alternative delivery models, leading to a fivefold increase in the data center pipeline over the last quarter.

Steven Fisher followed up on the JV project reserve, asking if it reflected project performance and what risks remain. He also questioned how rising construction costs and potential tariffs are affecting client behavior, value engineering opportunities, and project timelines.

Answer

Chair and CEO Bob Pragada stated the company is appropriately reserved for the JV matter and that it is an infrequent event, not a change in the company's risk profile. Regarding costs, he explained that their key projects are less discretionary and are proceeding, but the uncertainty is creating new consulting opportunities in value engineering and supply chain scenario planning for clients.

Steven Fisher asked about the significant growth rate disparity between Jacobs' end markets, the potential for that gap to close, and the specific impact of an EV customer bankruptcy. He also questioned the progress on corporate cost reductions and the timeline for restructuring charges to phase out.

Answer

CEO Bob Pragada acknowledged the EV bankruptcy created a temporary gap but expects it to close, noting the critical infrastructure growth gap was mainly international and is already recovering. CFO Venk Nathamuni added that there is still room for margin improvement, guiding for a 100 basis point increase in FY25, driven by a full year of operating efficiencies. He projected restructuring costs will decline dramatically to $75M-$95M in FY25 and be largely complete by year-end.

Steven Fisher questioned Power Solutions' historical revenue mix, specifically if their 90% data center focus was consistent five years ago, and what their business was beyond data centers if not. He also asked for context on the $500 million in post-quarter service and maintenance agreements, inquiring if it indicates growing importance of service or strong Q4 bookings.

Answer

President and CEO Daniel Peyovich stated that Power Solutions has maintained a '90-ish %' data center revenue concentration for a long time, which differentiates them by their ability to handle complex, mission-critical environments. He explained that the $500 million in service and maintenance agreements highlights the importance of this business, Dycom's scale, and its ability to secure future work, setting up well for Q4 backlog.

Steven Fisher questioned the historical revenue mix of Power Solutions, specifically if it maintained 90% data center focus five years ago, and sought context on the recently announced $500 million in service and maintenance agreements.

Answer

President and CEO Dan Peyovich confirmed that Power Solutions has consistently maintained a 90% data center revenue concentration for a long time, highlighting its unique differentiation in handling complex, mission-critical environments. Regarding the service and maintenance agreements, he stated they accentuate the importance of this business, demonstrate Dycom's scale, and position the company well for Q4 backlog, reinforcing its leadership in the service and maintenance space.

Steven Fisher from UBS Group asked about the visibility into Q4 revenues and the drivers of implied acceleration. He also sought a deeper understanding of the evolving margin narrative and how to model future improvements.

Answer

CEO Daniel Peyovich expressed high confidence in the full-year revenue guide, stating it is based on the visible ramp-up of existing programs. On margins, he explained the improvement is a result of both operating leverage and durable, long-term operational efficiencies. He anticipates further margin improvement opportunities over time, though cautioned the progression may not be linear due to seasonality.

Steven Fisher of UBS inquired about the drivers of the year-over-year margin improvement and its sustainability. He also asked about the importance of the BEAD program for future growth, given the company's strong performance without it.

Answer

President and CEO Dan Peyovich attributed the margin expansion primarily to operating leverage from business growth and stated that the company sees opportunities for continued margin improvement. Regarding the BEAD program, he emphasized that while it remains a significant future opportunity for fiscal 2027, it is not included in the current outlook and is not necessary for the company's current growth trajectory.

Steven Fisher sought to understand how Q4 organic revenue performed relative to expectations, excluding storm work, and asked for clarity on the organic growth assumption for the Q1 outlook.

Answer

President and CEO Daniel Peyovich explained that storm work occurred throughout Q4, impacting the comparison to the initial outlook. He emphasized that the full-year revenue outlook is a better indicator of the business trajectory, driven by significant long-term opportunities in fiber-to-the-home, hyperscaler projects, and state and federal broadband programs.

Steven Fisher asked about the differences and momentum in international data center opportunities compared to the U.S., including competitive dynamics, and the reasons behind the flattening of power systems margins throughout 2025 despite strong performance.

Answer

CEO Jennifer Rumsey identified the U.S. and China as standout markets for data center demand, with global growth occurring but at a slower pace elsewhere, acknowledging competition but emphasizing Cummins' strong current position. CFO Mark Smith attributed the flattening of power systems margins to natural variations between aftermarket, old goods, and segments, but reiterated expectations for earnings growth in 2026 due to rising demand and capacity investments.

Steven Fisher asked about the international data center opportunities compared to the U.S., including differences in momentum and competitive dynamics. Fisher also inquired about the flattening of Power Systems segment margins throughout the year and the factors driving this trend, beyond data center demand.

Answer

Jennifer Rumsey, Chair and Chief Executive Officer, identified the U.S. and China as the standout markets for strong and growing data center demand, with global growth also occurring. Rumsey noted that while competition is present, Cummins is well-positioned. Mark Smith, Chief Financial Officer, acknowledged some natural variation in Power Systems margins due to aftermarket and other segments but expressed pride in the segment's performance and expected earnings growth into next year, despite some capacity investments.

Steven Fisher from UBS inquired about the current lead times for PowerGen engines, how new capacity will affect them, and whether the planned Q4 tariff recovery is contractual.

Answer

Chair and CEO Jennifer Rumsey confirmed a two-year backlog for large engines, with new orders now being scheduled for 2027 delivery. She clarified that the anticipated tariff recovery is not contractual and requires active, ongoing negotiations with customers to implement.

Steven Fisher from UBS inquired about the lead times for PowerGen engines, how the new capacity will affect them, and whether the company's plan to reach tariff price-cost neutrality in Q4 is based on contractual agreements or requires further negotiation.

Answer

CEO Jennifer Rumsey confirmed the two-year backlog applies to the largest engines and that the company is now taking orders for 2027 delivery, which accounts for the new capacity coming online. She clarified that tariff recovery is not contractual and requires active, ongoing negotiations with customers.

Steven Fisher requested clarification on the product launch timeline for the 2027 engine and asked what conditions would be necessary for Cummins to reinstate its guidance.

Answer

CEO Jennifer Rumsey confirmed that launch plans are unchanged, with the new 10-liter and B7.2 engines set for 2027 and the X15 diesel for 2026. CFO Mark Smith stated that reinstating guidance requires more data points on economic stability, citing disappointing April truck orders and the disruptive effects of tariffs as key areas of uncertainty.

Steven Fisher of UBS Group AG questioned the perceived conservatism in Cummins' Q4 guidance and asked if strong performance in segments like Power Generation could offset the heavy-duty truck market downturn to sustain EBITDA growth into the next year.

Answer

CEO Jennifer Rumsey attributed the Q4 outlook to further softening in the heavy-duty market, a temporary production decline in the pickup truck business due to a model changeover, and fewer working days. She affirmed that momentum in Power Generation is driven by both strategic pricing and significant capacity improvements, with a 30% increase on the 95-liter product in 2024 and plans to double capacity by late 2025. CFO Mark Smith added that the company is planning for a modest start to the heavy-duty truck market in the first half of the next year.

Steven Fisher sought clarification on any changes to 2025 pricing expectations, whether single-family residential is the sole driver of volume reduction, and the anticipated dynamics of residential demand in 2026.

Answer

Tom Hill, Chairman and CEO, indicated Q4 pricing would be similar to Q3, benefiting from large base volumes with good margins. He expects non-residential and public demand to grow, while residential remains a headwind but is likely to bottom out sometime in 2026.

Steven Fisher of UBS Group AG questioned the visibility on cost increases for the second half and asked if the company expects to return to double-digit growth in cash gross profit per ton in Q3.

Answer

Chair & CEO J. Thomas Hill highlighted excellent cost control in H1, attributing it to the 'Vulcan way of operating.' Senior VP & CFO Mary Carlisle added that the company captured $0.95 of a $1.11 per ton price increase as cash gross profit, demonstrating strong margin conversion. They expect this momentum to continue, aided by volume leverage in the second half.

Steven Fisher from UBS sought clarification on the 'paused' private projects, asking if the hesitancy was broad or concentrated in specific areas like interest-rate-sensitive commercial versus structural growth areas like data centers.

Answer

CEO James Hill clarified that the pause is not widespread but is concentrated in large commercial projects. He emphasized that public work continues without pause. Hill identified data centers as a significant bright spot, noting that 80% of proposed data centers are located within 30 miles of a Vulcan quarry. He also highlighted that this trend will drive future demand for aggregate-intensive power generation construction.

Steven Fisher questioned how Quanta's overall strategy balances its successful base-level recurring utility services model with the expansion into more discrete EPC project delivery, especially with the new power generation platform.

Answer

President and CEO Duke Austin clarified that Quanta's core strategy remains unchanged, centered on fungible craft skills. He noted that while base business is still around 80%, the company is now stacking larger projects, expecting continued backlog growth from projects not yet included.

Steven Fisher asked how Quanta Services' overall strategy is evolving, specifically framing the balance between its successful utility services model (80%+ base business) and the increasing focus on larger, discrete EPC project delivery.

Answer

President and CEO Duke Austin affirmed that Quanta's core strategy remains unchanged, centered on fungible craft skills adaptable across MSAs and large projects. He noted that while the base business is still around 80%, the company is now stacking larger projects, expecting continued backlog growth for decades, without 765kV or Grain Belt projects currently included.

Steven Fisher of UBS followed up on the Dynamic Systems deal, asking how the returns on mechanical services compare to electrical, and if a potential difference is reflected in the acquisition price.

Answer

President & CEO Duke Austin affirmed that the return on invested capital for the acquisition is expected to be as good as or better than Quanta's other uses of capital. He stressed that the value goes beyond the surface, pointing to Dynamic's significant fabrication capabilities and advanced technical services, which will benefit the entire company and provide access to multiple markets. The strategic value, he noted, will become more apparent in the coming years.

Steven Fisher asked about the remaining 'white space' in Quanta's solution-based strategy and whether 2025 is a year for continued M&A or for digesting recent acquisitions.

Answer

President and CEO Duke Austin defined the 'solution' strategy as integrating multiple services like engineering and procurement to solve complex customer problems, rather than acting as a single-service contractor. Regarding capital allocation, he stated that Quanta cannot time M&A but will pursue strategic fits, noting the balance sheet is strong and all options, including acquisitions and share buybacks, remain on the table.

Steven Fisher requested a comparison of 2024 growth rates for generation versus high and low voltage to better understand the 2025 outlook. He also asked conceptually if generation growth is expected to outpace grid-related growth over the next few years.

Answer

President & CEO Earl Austin explained that the company will no longer provide granular breakdowns by sub-segment, as the new combined Electric Infrastructure Solutions segment reflects how the business is managed and resources are allocated across converging markets. He emphasized that all end markets are growing, pointing to the overall strong guidance and record backlog, particularly the long-term backlog in renewables, as evidence of broad-based growth.

Steven Fisher from UBS asked for clarification on why the electric segment's revenue guidance was unchanged despite incremental storm restoration work. He also inquired about ongoing challenges in the underground gas utility business.

Answer

President and CEO Earl "Duke" Austin explained that the storm work required shifting resources from other projects, including industrial gas work, which created offsets across the portfolio. He noted the impact of storms on the industrial business's margin profile. For the underground segment, he reiterated that utility budget shifts from gas to electric projects impacted the LDC business, but emphasized the strength of the overall portfolio and confidence in future growth.

Steven Fisher asked for context on the 2.9 months of inventory, questioning if it aligns with ideal targets and if competitors' inventory levels are creating price pressure. He also asked about the potential for a pre-buy cycle and what might trigger it.

Answer

CEO Preston Feight and President and CFO Harrie Schippers characterized the 2.9 months of inventory as 'very healthy,' noting it had decreased from 3.3 months in the prior quarter. Regarding a pre-buy, Feight suggested that an improving freight market and the aging of truck fleets would likely be the primary drivers for increased purchasing in 2025, rather than a specific regulatory event.

Steven Fisher inquired about PACCAR's ability to provide firm pricing given tariff uncertainties and asked about long-term structural growth opportunities beyond cyclical dynamics, such as in EV, autonomy, parts, and financial services.

Answer

CEO & Director R. Preston Feight explained that PACCAR includes a tariff surcharge and maintains an active dialogue with customers, allowing for future pricing. He identified multiple long-term growth drivers, including increased truck demand from autonomy, higher-value EV trucks, and growing proprietary parts share from complex regulations. He emphasized that Parts, Finco, and connected services are all great future growth opportunities.

Steven Fisher of UBS asked how far out PACCAR can offer firm pricing amid tariff uncertainty and explored long-term structural growth opportunities in areas like EV, autonomy, parts, and financial services.

Answer

CEO & Director R. Preston Feight explained that a tariff surcharge allows for future pricing, with active dialogue and strong customer relationships enabling adjustments if policies change. He identified structural growth in increasing freight movement, future autonomy, EV adoption, and regulatory complexity driving proprietary parts sales, reaffirming that parts, Finco, and connected services are key growth opportunities.

Steven Fisher asked about PACCAR's order visibility through the end of the year and how it varies between North America and Europe. He also inquired about the drivers for the expected acceleration in Parts growth for the rest of the year.

Answer

CEO Preston Feight stated that the company is substantially full for Q2 and taking orders for Q3 and Q4, with comparable backlog visibility in both the U.S. and Europe. Regarding second-half improvement, he pointed to a long period of low rates for truckload customers, aging fleets, and strengthening used truck prices as potential catalysts.

Steven Fisher asked what is enabling PACCAR to maintain stable gross margins in Q1 despite a projected 10% decline in production. He also questioned if the pricing environment has stabilized and if margins have bottomed for the year.

Answer

CEO Preston Feight attributed the margin resilience to the strong performance and reliability of PACCAR's trucks, which results in benefits like slightly lower warranty costs. He reiterated his view that the market is on a positive trend, with improvement expected throughout 2025, particularly in the second half, suggesting the low point has been reached.

Steven Fisher of UBS Group inquired about the shipping duration of the current backlog, the expected EBITDA cadence for Q3 and Q4, and the regional dynamics of order intake, particularly the book-to-bill ratio in the U.S. versus Europe. He also asked about the per-unit impact of tariffs and the underlying demand drivers in the U.S. market.

Answer

EVP & CFO Brian Regan stated that most of the backlog is expected to ship within the year, with Q4 typically being stronger than Q3. CEO Aaron Ravenscroft explained that U.S. order dynamics are split: the MGX distribution business saw strong demand for pre-tariff inventory, while the dealer-oriented business is challenged. He noted that tariff impacts vary by model and that while crane rental houses are busy, buyers are delaying purchases due to price uncertainty, waiting for the market to absorb the new tariff-driven costs.

Steven Fisher sought clarification on whether the $45 million tariff impact includes higher costs for raw materials like steel within U.S. production. He also asked if the existing backlog could be repriced with surcharges to offset tariffs, inquired about momentum in U.S. non-residential construction markets, and requested details on the drivers behind the growth in non-new machine sales.

Answer

President and CEO Aaron Ravenscroft confirmed that higher raw material costs are part of the tariff impact and that the company intends to use surcharges on its backlog. He noted that U.S. non-residential momentum is strong, particularly in areas like data centers. For non-new machine sales, Ravenscroft described the growth as broad-based, driven by European tower cranes, used/rebuilt machines, and an expanding service technician workforce. EVP and CFO Brian Regan added that the revenue contribution from new service techs ramps up over time.

Steven Fisher from UBS asked for clarification on the implied Q4 margin outlook, whether Q3 represented a bottom for margins, and for an update on quoting activity trends in the Americas.

Answer

President and CEO Aaron Ravenscroft indicated that margin pressure would likely persist through Q4 and Q1 2025 due to reduced production schedules and the resulting under-absorption of fixed costs. EVP and CFO Brian Regan added that Q4 margins are expected to be relatively flat with Q3's 5%. Regarding market activity, Ravenscroft noted that while October orders were low, there was a recent anecdotal pickup in quoting activity, which he considered a positive sign after several slow months.

Steven Fisher asked for a breakdown of the updated volume guidance, seeking to understand the split between Q2 weather impacts and other factors, and inquired about a low corporate expense figure.

Answer

CEO C. Howard Nye explained the volume guidance is 'measured and thoughtful,' reflecting Q2 weather headwinds and a conservative view for H2. He confirmed potential upside exists if weather is favorable. CFO Michael Petro clarified the corporate expense was lower year-over-year due to a prior-year acquisition-related expense add-back and effective cost management.

Steven Fisher of UBS Group AG referenced management's previous characterization of its guidance as 'conservative' and asked how they feel about it today. He questioned if any of that conservatism was needed in Q1 or is anticipated for Q2, especially given the changing macro backdrop.

Answer

Chair and CEO Ward Nye confirmed the initial guidance was 'measured or conservative' and stated, 'I actually feel better today than I felt in February.' He sees no disappointments in cost control, pricing, or M&A prospects. Nye reiterated that the business is revealing the durability expected from its recent portfolio shaping, and the margin enhancements are an affirmation of the company's strategy and direction. He indicated a formal guidance review will occur at mid-year.

Steven Fisher of UBS Group AG sought more clarity on the factors driving the increased earnings guidance, particularly regarding segment performance, and questioned the potential impact of tariffs on future construction costs.

Answer

CEO Gary Smalley explained the guidance increase was driven by the continued strong performance of the Civil segment, successful project settlements, and reduced uncertainty due to the new adjusted EPS metric which excludes volatile stock-based compensation. He noted that Civil segment margins are now expected to be in the 12% to 15% range. Regarding tariffs, Smalley stated the company has minimal exposure on current backlog projects because material and subcontractor prices have been locked in. For future projects, any higher costs will be factored into bids.

Steven Fisher of UBS inquired about the 'clean' nature of Q1 results, specifically regarding dispute resolutions, and the expected differences between Q1 and Q2 performance. He also asked about the catalysts for moving projects from preconstruction to construction and the impact of rising costs and tariffs on project decisions.

Answer

CEO Gary Smalley confirmed Q1 was 'clean' regarding earnings impact from dispute resolutions, noting that while settlements occurred, the cash would arrive in Q2 with a net-neutral earnings effect. He stated Q1's strength was organic, driven by faster-than-expected project ramp-ups. Smalley explained that moving preconstruction projects to construction is largely a matter of time, citing significant recent and expected conversions. Executive Chairman Ron Tutor added that while costs are rising, existing contracts have protections, and they haven't felt significant pain from tariffs on current work.

Steven Fisher from UBS inquired about the revenue recognition timeline for the company's new project awards, the expected profit inflection for the Specialty Contractors segment, and the potential impact of the U.S. election outcome on the construction industry.

Answer

CEO Ronald Tutor explained that new projects have a 6-to-9-month design phase, with significant revenue burn beginning in the second half of 2025 and accelerating into 2026 and beyond. He noted the Specialty Contractors segment will see revenue and margins ramp up as it participates in these new projects. Regarding the election, Tutor shared his personal view that the outcome was positive for business but did not anticipate a direct impact on their currently funded projects.

Steven Fisher of UBS Group AG inquired about the profit margins embedded in the recent strong bookings and the company's confidence in executing on these projects. He also asked whether meeting the demand from this new backlog would require significant new hiring or could be met through better resource utilization.

Answer

President & CEO Christian Brown responded that the backlog for the second half of the year carries higher margins than what was delivered in the first half, with improvements expected across all business segments. He noted that while near-term resource needs for the next 12 months are well within current capabilities, a more strategic, centralized talent acquisition effort will be necessary for long-term growth.

Steven Fisher questioned the U.S. Gas segment's Q1 loss relative to expectations and asked if it's strategically possible for the segment to be profitable in Q1 without relying on favorable weather. He also asked for the expected cadence of bookings following a strong Q1.

Answer

President and CEO Christian Brown stated the strategy is to expand the gas business into southern regions to mitigate winter weather impacts. CFO Greg Izenstark added that Q1 is historically the slowest period for the gas business. Regarding bookings, Brown noted that momentum continued into Q2 and, despite expected lumpiness with a quieter Q3, he is confident in achieving or exceeding the 1.1x book-to-bill target for the year, with Q2 and Q4 being robust.

Steven Fisher of UBS Group AG asked about the competitive landscape for bid work and the company's target mix between bid and MSA work. He also requested details on the equipment-related productivity issues, including the number of projects affected, their completion status, the financial impact, and future mitigation strategies.

Answer

Jim Connell, Chief Commercial and Strategy Officer, noted that while the environment is always competitive, customers have more work than resources, creating opportunities for scaled providers. Interim CEO Paul Caudill added that there is no set target for the bid-versus-MSA mix, and the shift will be gradual and risk-informed. Regarding productivity, Mr. Connell explained the issue involved boring equipment on a handful of jobs that are now largely complete, characterizing it as a normal operational occurrence in the construction business.

Steven Fisher of UBS Group questioned the drivers behind the improved second-half outlook for Construction Industries and the continued need for merchandising incentives.

Answer

CFO Andrew Bonfield explained that low-interest financing remains highly attractive to customers in the current rate environment and is an effective tool for driving sales, with about half the cost recovered over time. CEO Joe Creed added that dealer rental revenues have been growing even without fleet loading in the first half, suggesting a timing-related pickup is due in the second half.

Steven Fisher of UBS asked about Caterpillar's contingency plans and strategies for managing potential tariffs on products imported from China into the U.S. under a new political administration.

Answer

Executive D. Umpleby stated that while it's early, Caterpillar is well-positioned as a net U.S. exporter with its largest manufacturing presence in the United States. He emphasized the company's long history of adapting to different administrations and its strategy of producing in-region for-region where possible.

Steven Fisher questioned what drove the acceleration in power generation growth to 26% year-over-year, given capacity constraints, and to what extent it was due to shifting production from oil and gas.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Jim Umpleby explained the growth was driven by several factors. This included reallocating large engine capacity from oil and gas to power generation as needed, increased power generation sales from the Solar Turbines business, and ongoing efforts to improve throughput at existing reciprocating engine facilities ahead of major capital investments.

Steven Fisher of UBS Group inquired about customer feedback and project activity in the Clean Energy segment amidst recent policy uncertainty, specifically asking about the impact on 2026 bookings. He also asked about the timing and nature of expected bookings in the Power Delivery segment.

Answer

CEO José R. Mas stated that customers have been unaffected by the policy changes, with 2025 and 2026 plans remaining on track. He expressed confidence in the "One Big Beautiful bill" and noted that MasTec's top-tier developer clients are well-positioned to safe harbor projects. For Power Delivery, Mas emphasized a focus on "all of the above" project types, highlighting the nearly 20% organic growth guidance for the year and expected margin progression in the second half.

Steven Fisher questioned why the Communications segment's revenue guidance implies a flat second half despite strong trends, and why the significant pipeline bookings didn't translate to a larger increase in the 2025 pipeline revenue forecast.

Answer

CEO Jose Mas explained the guidance reflects a conservative stance due to market volatility and unknowns, particularly in the current administrative environment. For the Pipeline segment, he noted that the new projects are expected to ramp up late in the third or early in the fourth quarter, making their 2025 revenue contribution sensitive to timing shifts. He indicated a preference for a prudent outlook until there is more clarity.

Steven Fisher of UBS questioned the cause of the Clean Energy revenue shortfall despite strong margins and inquired about the drivers of strong cash flow and its implications for the company's capital allocation and M&A strategy.

Answer

CEO Jose Mas attributed the Clean Energy revenue timing to minor, week-long slips on large projects, not fundamental issues, and noted he is confident in the Q4 ramp. CFO Paul Dimarco explained that strong cash flow stems from improved billing cycles and project mix, not financing facilities. Both executives confirmed that the resulting balance sheet strength provides flexibility to actively pursue M&A opportunities in a robust market.

Steven Fisher from UBS Group AG followed up on the Access segment's second-half revenue outlook, noting that with about half of the revenue in backlog, a significant amount of 'book and burn' activity would be required. He also asked about the potential impact of any August 1 tariff updates not reflected in the company's guidance.

Answer

CEO John Pfeifer characterized the current $1.2 billion Access backlog as 'totally normal' for this point in the year and stated that booking orders throughout the second half is standard procedure. Regarding tariffs, he expressed comfort due to resolutions reached between the U.S. administration and key trading partners like Europe, despite the dynamic environment.

Steven Fisher from UBS Group AG asked for more detail on the visibility in the Access segment for the first half versus the second half of 2025 and the key drivers for the expected improvement later in the year. He also inquired about the evolution of the AeroTech integration and its expected synergies in 2025.

Answer

CEO John Pfeifer explained that the Access outlook is based on customer conversations and market metrics, with softer private nonresidential construction pressuring the first half, followed by building momentum in the second half. Regarding AeroTech, he highlighted its strong performance and secular growth, emphasizing that the key synergy is accelerating shared technologies like autonomy and connectivity, as showcased at CES.

Steven Fisher asked about the future order trajectory for the Vocational segment and its potential for lumpiness. He also inquired whether the company's prior EPS expectations for 2025 remain broadly appropriate given the current outlook.

Answer

EVP and CFO Michael Pack stated the Vocational backlog continues to grow but acknowledged orders can be lumpy due to large national accounts. CEO John Pfeifer noted that Oshkosh is already operating within its prior 2025 EPS range in 2024, but declined to give specific 2025 guidance until January, pending customer negotiations.

Steven Fisher of UBS Group AG asked for a breakdown of the key drivers behind the Q2 earnings beat and for perspective on potential changes to EU agricultural policy and their influence on the market.

Answer

SVP & CFO Damon Audia attributed the Q2 beat primarily to slightly better-than-expected volumes and product mix, along with some cost savings. Chairman, President & CEO Eric Hansotia commented that proposed EU policy changes are a starting point for negotiations and that he expects a reasonable compromise will be reached, similar to past outcomes where farmer groups provided strong feedback.

Steven Fisher of UBS asked for clarification on the primary source of the forecasted tariff headwind and questioned what AGCO is doing to maintain a competitive pace and 'win' in Brazil as the market shows signs of recovery.

Answer

CEO Eric Hansotia identified tariffs on products from the EU as the largest headwind, followed by tariffs on components from China. Regarding Brazil, he stated AGCO is 'full speed ahead,' with leadership on the ground engaging a more optimistic customer base at Agrishow. He emphasized that the company is preparing its factories and supply chain for an anticipated increase in demand, as the Brazilian market is poised for growth.

Steven Fisher from UBS asked if the second-half organic growth guidance assumes a continuation of strong end-of-quarter order levels and sought clarification on the distinction between CBI and net market penetration.

Answer

Senior VP & CFO Michael Larsen clarified that the guidance is based on current demand levels and does not factor in any further acceleration. President & CEO Chris O'Herlihy explained the strategic distinction: CBI represents revenue from new products within their first three years, which then contributes to the 'net market penetration' growth bucket in subsequent years.

Steven Fisher of UBS Group AG asked about the profile of large projects over the next 12-18 months, specifically regarding any shifts in end markets or geography. He also requested guidance for total interest expense for the year.

Answer

SVP & COO Aaron Birnbaum described the mega project pipeline as 'robust' and 'accelerated,' with strong activity in data centers, infrastructure, and industrial manufacturing, including reshoring and pharma. SVP & CFO Mark Humphrey did not provide a specific interest expense number but advised using a weighted average cost of debt of 6.3%-6.4% for modeling.

Steven Fisher from UBS asked if the unchanged CapEx guidance for 2025 already accounts for potential cost increases from tariffs or suppliers. He also inquired about the most likely path for United Rentals to reaccelerate its growth.

Answer

President & CEO Matthew Flannery confirmed the CapEx plan includes the same number of units and that the company does not expect price increases from suppliers for 2025. For growth reacceleration, Flannery pointed to continued tailwinds from infrastructure and power, potential M&A, and a future recovery in more interest-rate-sensitive local markets. EVP & CFO William Grace added that macro stability, tax reform, and potential Fed easing should also support positive business sentiment and investment.

Steven Fisher sought to understand the specific reasons for the recent pickup in ancillary services, asking 'why now?'. He also asked for clarification on what will drive margin improvement in the second half of the year compared to the first quarter.

Answer

Executive Matthew Flannery explained the ancillary growth is driven by strategic initiatives to solve more customer problems, including services related to the newly acquired Yak business, setup for mobile storage and modular units, and expanded fueling services. Executive William Grace noted that after excluding non-core items and ancillary dynamics, the core margin decline was modest. He expects performance to improve as they enter the busier season and lap some transient costs from Q1.

Steven Fisher asked for details on the drivers behind the higher-than-usual ancillary and re-rent revenue, the outlook for these revenues, and what factors would be necessary for the company to achieve margin flow-through above 50%. He also inquired about how the current large project pipeline compares to the previous year.

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Executive William Grace attributed the growth in ancillary and re-rent revenue to storm-related opportunities and services within the specialty business. He explained that achieving higher margin flow-through would be aided by accelerated growth post-2025, which improves fixed cost absorption, but noted that intentional investments in cold-starts and technology are near-term drags. Executive Matthew Flannery added that the large project pipeline is very similar to last year, but with the added benefit of ongoing projects carrying demand into the new year.

Steven Fisher asked for a bridge of Q3 results versus prior guidance, the impact of rising tungsten prices, and details on competitive dynamics, particularly in the Americas earthworks market.

Answer

CFO Pat Watson explained the Q3 EPS beat was primarily driven by a $0.13 impact from the advanced manufacturing tax credit. He noted tungsten prices have risen recently, and related pricing resets will begin in Q4, while cost impacts lag by two quarters. CEO Sanjay Chowbey added that competitive pressure in earthworks stems from soft U.S. coal exports and overcapacity in China, but believes Kennametal is well-positioned with its global footprint to manage tariffs and capture share.

Steven Fisher requested more detail on the 'competitive dynamics' mentioned in the Earthworks market. He also asked for an update on how contributions from new products and market penetration are tracking against the framework laid out at the company's Investor Day.

Answer

CEO Sanjay Chowbey explained that competitive pressures in Earthworks are driven by lower capital investment in China, which creates excess capacity, and reduced construction activity in the U.S. Regarding the Investor Day framework, he expressed confidence that the company is still on track to achieve approximately 2% growth from price and 2% from strategic initiatives, but noted that the broader market decline has been a significant headwind to overall volume.

Steven Fisher asked for a breakdown of the Q2 margin assumptions compared to Q1 and inquired about the confidence in the organic growth recovery implied for the second half of the fiscal year.

Answer

CFO Pat Watson stated that Q2 margins are expected to be flattish sequentially, as the absence of Q1's insurance proceeds and tax benefits will be offset by the removal of plant shutdown and trade show costs. CEO Sanjay Chowbey added that the second-half outlook assumes a slight recovery in industrial production and oil rig counts, with modest improvements in auto and aerospace.

Steven Fisher asked for an update on the ~$2 billion in protested awards within the Mission Technology Solutions (MTS) segment and the potential for bookings to accelerate. He also inquired about the scope of work for the HomeSafe program during the upcoming peak season.

Answer

President and CEO Stuart Bradie stated that the value of protested awards was flat quarter-over-quarter at approximately $2 billion and expects them to be resolved in the second half of the year. Regarding HomeSafe, he noted that Q2 move volumes are expected to be similar to Q1, with increases in Q3 and Q4. He emphasized the program's success, citing rising customer satisfaction and a strong relationship with TRANSCOM.

Steven Fisher from UBS asked for an update on the status of decisions for the increased bids in the mission technology business, including those under protest, and requested more detail on the HomeSafe program's ramp-up progress and challenges.

Answer

President & CEO Stuart Bradie stated that KBR has nearly $1.5 billion in wins currently under protest, which could come through in H1 2025, and over $17 billion in bids awaiting award. Regarding HomeSafe, he explained that the move volume ramped up significantly in January, but the company is being sensible and deliberate with the pace to ensure operational success for the 10-year program, focusing on delivery quality over speed.

Steven Fisher asked for details on the potential scenarios and timing implications for the Lake Charles LNG project based on the U.S. election outcome. He also sought to clarify if KBR could still hit its STS growth targets even with a significant delay to Lake Charles. Additionally, he questioned the firmness of the Saudi PMC contract.

Answer

President and CEO Stuart Bradie explained that the Lake Charles project timing could accelerate under a Republican administration, while a Democratic one might see a more measured release of paused projects, with Lake Charles being well-positioned. He strongly affirmed KBR's ability to meet its growth targets regardless of the project's timing, pointing to four other LNG-related announcements in the quarter. Regarding the Saudi project, he stated Aramco is committed, and while a final investment decision is pending EPC pricing, the multiyear program is a solid booking that underpins long-range targets.

Steven Fisher requested a more precise outlook for the second-half organic growth rate needed to meet guidance and asked about the playbook for driving further margin improvement in the International segment.

Answer

CFO Gaurav Kapoor acknowledged the required second-half growth acceleration and expressed confidence in meeting the midpoint, citing a favorable work-day calendar and strong backlog. President Lara Poloni outlined the International margin strategy, which includes leveraging capability centers and capitalizing on key frameworks like AMP8 in the U.K. CEO Troy Rudd added that they also focus on return on capital, noting some international markets have strong returns despite lower margins due to efficient cash collection.

Steven Fisher inquired about the growth rate of the project pipeline, particularly for larger pursuits, and asked about the influence of interest rates and potential permitting reform on private versus public sector demand.

Answer

CFO Gaurav Kapoor confirmed the overall pipeline grew 10% year-over-year, with win rates exceeding 50% and even higher on larger pursuits. CEO Troy Rudd expressed optimism for both public and private sectors, driven by fundamental needs in energy and resiliency. He highlighted that potential permitting reform would be a significant catalyst for private client investment by improving project returns, and that its benefits would extend across the entire portfolio.

Steven Fisher inquired about the growth trajectory for the solar business over the next few years, the booking status for 2025 and 2026, and the expected growth rates for Primoris's other key segments.

Answer

President and CEO Tom McCormick explained that while 2025 solar revenue might be slightly down due to a pull-forward of work into 2024, growth in battery storage and O&M services will help offset this. He confirmed 2025 is largely booked, with some projects extending into 2027. CFO Ken Dodgen provided segment growth outlooks: low-single digits for gas, mid-single for power delivery, mid-to-upper single for communications, low-to-mid single for industrial, and flat for heavy civil and pipeline.

Steven Fisher followed up on the NuScale discussion, asking if tangible progress is being made in negotiations to provide comfort to investors. He also sought clarification on why Energy Solutions' margins are expected to be low in the first half of 2025, given the higher-margin mix of engineering services.

Answer

Chairman and CEO David Constable reiterated that Fluor is in 'detailed discussions' on NuScale and, while unable to share specifics, remains positive about the opportunity and hopes to have news soon. CFO Joe Brennan and incoming CFO John Regan clarified the Energy Solutions margin question, explaining it's an 'absorption issue.' As large projects wind down, there is friction and under-absorption of the significant infrastructure and staff in place, which temporarily offsets the higher-margin new work. This is expected to normalize as the year progresses.

Steven Fisher questioned if Fluor can maintain its project selectivity while still hitting growth targets, asked about the ongoing challenges and new bookings in Mexico, and inquired about staffing levels and potential overstaffing as large projects wind down.

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Chairman and CEO David Constable affirmed that Fluor will maintain its stringent selectivity, supported by a strong demand pipeline and an 80% reimbursable backlog. Chief Operating Officer Jim Breuer characterized the challenged project in Mexico as an 'outlier' in a historically successful joint venture. Breuer also stated that the company sees net resource growth and is using a new flexible execution model to reallocate talent from winding-down projects to new growth areas, avoiding overstaffing issues.

Steven Fisher inquired about Aerial Work Platform (AWP) order trends relative to expectations, customer fleet strategies for 2025, and the significance of Q1 bookings. He also asked for an update on the economic momentum in Europe.

Answer

Executive Simon Meester explained that AWP booking patterns are normalizing, with a strong 153% book-to-bill in Q4 and expectations for over 100% in Q1, driven primarily by replacement demand amid healthy fleet utilization. On Europe, Meester stated that Terex expects the market to remain soft in 2025, with general weakness in construction, though there are some signs of bottoming in the cranes business and strength in markets like Saudi Arabia.

Steven Fisher asked when U.S. Concrete Pumping revenues are expected to inflect to positive year-over-year growth, how customer conversations have changed post-election, and for clarification on the market oversupply of concrete pumps.

Answer

CFO Iain Humphries projected the revenue inflection point for the U.S. Pumping segment to occur in the third quarter of fiscal 2025. Executive Bruce Young noted that customer conversations are now 'a lot more optimistic,' with delayed projects beginning to ramp up. He clarified the pump oversupply stemmed from manufacturers overproducing for 2023-2024, a situation expected to normalize as 2025 production forecasts are much lower.

Asked whether EBITDA and the rental fleet are expected to grow in 2024 given lower CapEx. Also inquired about the expected cadence of non-residential construction and mega project activity throughout the year.

Answer

The company confirmed that EBITDA, rental revenue, and the fleet are all expected to grow in 2024. This growth will be supported by the full-year benefit of 2023 fleet additions and solid rates. Mega projects are a growing factor and will have a larger impact in the second half of the year. The company expects to show leverage in physical utilization in the back half of 2024.