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Tim Nollen

Research Analyst at Macquarie Group LTD

Tim Nollen is Director and Senior Analyst for Media, Entertainment, Advertising, and Ad Tech at Macquarie Group, where he specializes in analyzing major global advertising holding companies and technology-driven media companies. He covers companies such as Walt Disney, Magnite, and Criteo and has delivered a performance track record that includes a 41.7% success rate and standout returns, notably generating a 772% return on an APP stock call between 2024 and 2025. Beginning his career at Bear Stearns and later J.P. Morgan, Nollen joined Macquarie in London in 2009, relocated to New York in 2011, and has since built over a decade of expertise covering both European and U.S. markets. He is recognized for his deep sector knowledge and sell-side research leadership in the media and advertising ecosystem.

Tim Nollen's questions to DoubleVerify Holdings (DV) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Tim Nollen asked about DoubleVerify's CTV strategy, specifically how penetrating this medium differs from web or mobile, and whether it's easier or more difficult given the historical operation of TV measurement systems.

Answer

CEO Mark Zagorski explained that CTV differs from linear TV because advertisers now demand metrics beyond just reach and frequency, focusing on results and effectiveness. DoubleVerify's role in CTV is to ensure validity by addressing issues like fraud, viewability, and ads playing on inactive screens, which are less transparent than in the linear world. He highlighted 33% year-over-year growth in CTV measurement volumes, driven by advertiser demand for greater transparency, including show-level data and verification that ads are delivered on full episode players in highly branded environments, which is a unique and expanding role for DV.

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Question · Q4 2025

Tim Nollen asked about the differences in penetrating the CTV medium compared to web or mobile, considering TV's historical measurement systems, and whether it's easier or more difficult for DoubleVerify.

Answer

Mark Zagorski (CEO) explained that CTV differs from linear TV because advertisers demand metrics beyond reach/frequency, focusing on results and effectiveness. DV's role in CTV is to ensure validity (combating fraud, viewability issues, non-playing ads) and provide transparency, especially as advertisers discover they are buying non-CTV inventory on programmatic platforms. He highlighted 33% year-over-year CTV volume growth and the unique role DV plays in providing granular, show-level data and ensuring ads are delivered in authentic, branded environments.

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Tim Nollen's questions to Trade Desk (TTD) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Tim Nollen asked for more detail on the evolution of CTV transactions, specifically the balance between direct, PMP, and open exchange deals, and whether advertisers and publishers are increasingly demanding bidded transactions or more certainty through direct deals, including OpenPath to CTV.

Answer

Jeff Green (CEO, Co-Founder, and Board Chairman) clarified that sophisticated and growing brands are moving towards more biddable and decisioning-focused transactions, even within direct deal frameworks. This allows them to leverage buying power for guarantees on rates while retaining decisioning control over the actual impressions. He emphasized a shift away from fixed-price programmatic guaranteed, with more brands seeking flexible deal structures that allow bidding across various inventory types while still securing bulk discounts or preferences.

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Question · Q4 2025

Tim Nollen inquired about the evolving dynamics of direct, PMP, and open exchange transactions in CTV, and whether advertisers and publishers are increasingly demanding bidded transactions. He also asked about the nature of OpenPath transactions in CTV.

Answer

CEO Jeff Green clarified that the most sophisticated brands are moving towards more biddable, decision-oriented transactions, even within direct deal frameworks, to maintain control over impression choice. He noted that while there will be more direct conversations, the trend is towards biddable and decisioning, with OpenPath designed to create a more efficient and competitive supply chain.

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Tim Nollen's questions to OMNICOM GROUP (OMC) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Tim Nollen inquired about the rationale behind Omnicom's new corporate operating structure, specifically the decision to consolidate some creative agencies while keeping all media agencies separate, along with distinct production and PR units. He also asked for clarification on what the 'connected capability' encompasses and if it extends to all Omnicom divisions.

Answer

Chairman and CEO John Wren explained that the new structure largely reflects Omnicom's pre-transaction setup, with media companies maintaining their six brands but operating as one global group for investments and deals. He noted that the advertising business saw consolidation from five to three global network brands. CFO Phil Angelastro clarified that 'connected capability' is the new terminology for what were previously practice areas and networks, with IPG businesses integrated into these existing Omnicom structures across major disciplines like Media, Advertising, Precision Marketing, PR, and Healthcare.

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Question · Q4 2025

Tim Nollen inquired about the rationale behind Omnicom's new corporate operating structure, specifically the decision to consolidate some creative agencies while keeping all media agencies separate, along with distinct production and PR units. He also asked for clarification on what the 'connected capability' encompasses and if it extends to all Omnicom divisions.

Answer

CFO Phil Angelastro clarified that the new structure largely reflects Omnicom's pre-transaction setup, with IPG businesses integrated into existing Omnicom 'connected capabilities' (formerly practice areas/networks) across disciplines like media, advertising, precision marketing, PR, and healthcare. Chairman and CEO John Wren added that media operations are run as one global group with multiple brands, allowing for coordinated investments while maintaining cultural differences to attract talent. He noted that the advertising business saw consolidation from five to three global network brands.

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Question · Q4 2024

Tim Nollen of Macquarie Group asked about the integration status of Flywheel and how the IPG business would fit into Omnicom's consolidated structure, such as the Omnicom Advertising Group (OAG).

Answer

Chairman and CEO John Wren confirmed the Flywheel integration is complete and the team is actively involved in new business pitches. He explained the plan for IPG is to follow the OAG model: maintain distinct brands in top markets while consolidating operations in smaller markets to drive efficiency.

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Question · Q3 2024

Tim Nollen of Macquarie Group asked for more details on the new Omnicom Advertising Group, questioning if it represents a move toward a more integrated company and whether its goal is top-line synergy or cost savings. He also inquired about Omnicom's activity in both on-site and off-site retail media and how Flywheel enhances those capabilities.

Answer

CEO John Wren clarified that the Omnicom Advertising Group (OAG) aims to centralize technology and AI investments to create better tools for its distinct agency brands, focusing on waste avoidance and product improvement rather than cost-cutting. He compared it to the formation of Omnicom Media Group, which enabled the creation of Omni. On retail media, Wren positioned Flywheel as the definitive leader in on-site media with key retailers, giving Omnicom a significant competitive advantage.

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Tim Nollen's questions to AppLovin (APP) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Tim Nollen asked about other non-gaming sectors being serviced beyond e-commerce and their meaningfulness. He also inquired about cost items that could rise given high Adjusted EBITDA margins and AppLovin's capital structure thoughts and use of cash priorities.

Answer

Adam Foroughi clarified that 'e-commerce' is now referred to as 'web advertising,' encompassing any website with a transactional business model, with other sectors still early in model evolution. Matt Stumpf expressed confidence in maintaining margins, noting that performance marketing spend is the primary 'X factor' for short-term margin changes, but disciplined, return-based spending should prevent material long-term impact. For capital structure, Mr. Stumpf stated the first priority is organic growth, followed by the active share repurchase program, which they plan to continue.

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Question · Q4 2025

Tim Nollen asked about other non-gaming sectors beyond e-commerce, their current meaningfulness, cost items that could rise while maintaining high Adjusted EBITDA margins, and capital structure thoughts.

Answer

Co-Founder, CEO, and Chairperson Adam Foroughi clarified that other non-gaming sectors (beyond 'web advertising' which includes e-commerce) are still early in model evolution and less meaningful currently. CFO Matt Stumpf expressed confidence in maintaining high Adjusted EBITDA margins, noting potential short-term impact from scaling performance marketing (which would be disciplined and return-based, with 30-day returns). He stated cash priorities are organic growth (talent, hiring for e-commerce/engineering) and then active share repurchase programs.

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Tim Nollen's questions to Criteo (CRTO) leadership

Question · Q4 2025

Tim Nollen asked about the monetization model for Criteo's AI initiatives, specifically the pricing structure for retailer clients (transactional vs. service element) and the revenue opportunity from native AI companies versus traditional retailer customers. He also followed up on the decision not to assume any upside from agentic tools in the current guidance.

Answer

Michael Komasinski (CEO) explained that for retail, surfacing sponsored products in AI interfaces uses the same take-rate model as onsite. For LLMs, the focus is on industry leadership and deep ecosystem embedding, with monetization models (API access fees, participation in economic models) to be determined as they evolve. Todd Parsons (Chief Product Officer) added that brands seek discovery (paid or organic), and while paid discovery in LLMs will use traditional approaches, organic discovery via the recommendation service has less clear pricing but will be monetized. Sarah Glickman (CFO) confirmed no agentic upside is assumed in guidance due to its early stage and lack of signed contracts.

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Question · Q4 2025

Tim Nollen asked about the monetization model for Criteo's AI initiatives on the retailer client side, specifically if it's transactional or service-based. He also questioned the revenue opportunity from native AI companies versus traditional retailer customers for agentic processes and sought clarification on why no upside from agentic tools was assumed in the guidance despite enthusiasm.

Answer

CEO Michael Komasinski stated that surfacing sponsored products in retailer interfaces largely follows the existing take-rate model. For LLMs, the focus is on industry leadership and deep ecosystem embedding, with monetization models (API access fees or economic participation) still evolving. Chief Product Officer Todd Parsons added that brands seek discovery, both paid and organic, with organic discovery's pricing model being less clear but expected to monetize. CFO Sarah Glickman confirmed that no upside from agentic tools is assumed in guidance because they haven't been monetized yet, but expressed excitement for future announcements.

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Question · Q3 2024

Tim Nollen revisited the topic of third-party cookies, asking how dependent the now-growing retargeting business is on them and if there was an update on the financial impact of cookie deprecation, referencing a previously withdrawn forecast.

Answer

CEO Megan Clarken asserted that Criteo no longer plans its business around cookie demise, having shifted to a multi-pronged addressability strategy. Chief Product Officer Todd Parsons added that while more cookies are helpful, the strategy is not tied to them and addresses the entire buyer journey. CFO Sarah Glickman declined to provide a new 2025 forecast, stating the company will update assumptions once Google's plans are finalized.

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Tim Nollen's questions to Walt Disney (DIS) leadership

Question · Q4 2024

Tim Nollen requested an update on the divestiture of assets in India and asked what Disney's business presence in the country will look like following the partial sale to Reliance.

Answer

CFO Hugh Johnston expressed excitement for the partnership with Reliance, a major presence in India. He confirmed that post-deal, Disney will retain a percentage ownership in the high 30s, with Reliance managing the business operations. He also noted that the financial implications of this transaction were already incorporated into the company's forward-looking guidance.

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Tim Nollen's questions to PubMatic (PUBM) leadership

Question · Q3 2024

Tim Nollen of Macquarie Group requested more detail on PubMatic's curation work in CTV, asking how its approach is differentiated and whether the growth in CTV inventory is increasing demand for such services.

Answer

CEO Rajeev Goel explained that as targeting moves to the sell-side, PubMatic's Connect platform excels at inventory packaging and data layering, citing examples of using political or commerce data on CTV inventory. He confirmed that the surge in CTV supply is forcing sellers to adopt more sophisticated monetization strategies beyond direct deals, thereby increasing demand for curation and marketplace solutions where PubMatic is well-positioned.

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Tim Nollen's questions to MAGNITE (MGNI) leadership

Question · Q3 2024

Tim Nollen asked about the industry's shift toward more biddable programmatic buying in CTV, and whether this transition would make CTV accretive to Magnite's overall take rate.

Answer

CEO Michael Barrett confirmed the trend, stating that a surplus of CTV inventory is pushing publishers toward biddable models that buyers prefer. He agreed that this shift should improve Magnite's economics over time. He clarified that historical take rate pressure was due to a mix of lower-rate, publisher-sold programmatic deals, and as more biddable inventory is activated, the take rate profile for CTV is expected to improve.

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Question · Q3 2024

Tim Nollen inquired about the industry's transition toward more bidded programmatic buying in CTV and its potential impact on Magnite's take rates.

Answer

CEO Michael Barrett confirmed a shift toward biddable programmatic, driven by buyer demand and a surplus of CTV inventory. He stated this trend is positive for Magnite's economics, as the company's CTV take rate is currently at the low end of its historical range due to the prevalence of lower-rate, publisher-sold deals. Increased biddable activity is expected to improve the take rate over time.

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Tim Nollen's questions to INTERPUBLIC GROUP OF COMPANIES (IPG) leadership

Question · Q3 2024

Tim Nollen inquired about the scope of internal reorganizations, the status of the R/GA and Huge divestitures, the potential for other sales, and the company's appetite for M&A.

Answer

CEO Philippe Krakowsky stated that the sale process for R/GA and Huge is 'well down the tracks' and that the company is open to other dispositions to improve its asset mix. Regarding M&A, he confirmed that IPG will 'lean in' and consider acquisitions to scale capabilities, particularly in retail media, commerce, and specialized data, noting that competitors have benefited from such strategies.

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