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Toby Ogg

Research Analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Toby Ogg is an Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan Securities Plc, specializing in coverage of major technology firms such as SAP SE. He has consistently demonstrated strong performance, including a 100% success rate with an average return of 12.64% during his tenure at Credit Suisse. Ogg began his career at JPMorgan Securities Plc in 2016, later holding analyst roles at Merrill Lynch International and Credit Suisse before returning to JPMorgan Chase & Co. in 2022. He holds recognized professional registrations and is noted for his analytical rigor and expertise in equity research.

Toby Ogg's questions to SAP (SAP) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Toby Og from JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the current demand backdrop, specifically regarding elongated sales cycles in the U.S. public sector and manufacturing, and sought clarification on the Current Cloud Backlog (CCB) guidance, questioning if a 25% exit rate for 2025 was unlikely given previous statements.

Answer

CEO Christian Klein noted positive momentum in the Q4 pipeline, with stalled deals in the U.S. public sector and manufacturing returning, driven by C-level engagement on cost optimization and AI. He expressed optimism for the CCB exit rate, expecting it to be higher than 25%.

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Question · Q3 2025

Toby Og with JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the demand backdrop, specifically regarding elongated sales cycles in the U.S. public sector and manufacturing, and sought an update on the current cloud backlog (CCB) guidance, questioning if a 25% exit rate for 2025 was unlikely.

Answer

Christian Klein, CEO of SAP, noted positive momentum in the Q4 pipeline, with stalled deals in the U.S. public sector and manufacturing returning. He emphasized high-value AI-driven business cases connecting with C-level executives, reducing slippage risk. Dominik Asam, CFO of SAP, added that he was more optimistic about the CCB exit rate for the year than 25%, given current business momentum.

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Question · Q1 2025

Toby Ogg of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked why the current cloud backlog (CCB) tracked above expectations in Q1 and whether there were different demand dynamics across end markets in March and April due to tariff uncertainty.

Answer

CFO Dominik Asam attributed the strong CCB to a technical effect from late Q4 deal closings, which was expected and will normalize. CEO Christian Klein added that they have not seen a change in demand dynamics, noting that industries like automotive continue to sign large deals focused on supply chain and AI-driven productivity.

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Question · Q3 2024

Toby Ogg from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for the specific contribution of the WalkMe acquisition to the year-over-year backlog growth and inquired about the timeline and key drivers of the upcoming go-to-market transformation.

Answer

CFO Dominik Asam confirmed the 1 percentage point increase in CCB growth was largely from WalkMe, with organic growth being 'virtually flat.' CEO Christian Klein outlined that the go-to-market changes will begin in January and will focus on three pillars: expanding the no-touch partner channel for the mid-market, combining LOB sales teams to drive cross-selling of the suite, and increasing overall productivity.

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Question · Q2 2024

Toby Ogg asked about the drivers of the 28% cloud backlog growth, questioning if there were macro headwinds or migration credit tailwinds, and what supports confidence for H2 given tougher Q4 comps.

Answer

CEO Christian Klein stated that deal slippages were not macro-related and the strong backlog creates opportunities for upselling and expansion within RISE deals. He highlighted the 'land and expand' strategy, where customers adopt more modules over time. He also emphasized the stickiness of the cloud business and untapped potential in the partner channel, which is not fully reflected in the current backlog.

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