Apple Inc. (AAPL) Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Apple delivered a September-quarter record: revenue $102.47B (+8% Y/Y) and diluted EPS $1.85 (up 13% Y/Y on an adjusted basis), driven by record iPhone and record Services revenue, and stronger company gross margin of 47.2% .
- Broad-based strength: iPhone $49.03B (+6% Y/Y), Mac $8.73B (+13% Y/Y), Services $28.75B (+15% Y/Y), while iPad and Wearables were roughly flat; company set regional records in the Americas, Europe, Japan, and Rest of Asia Pacific; Greater China declined 4% Y/Y due to iPhone supply constraints in the quarter .
- Outlook (December quarter): total revenue expected to grow 10–12% Y/Y, iPhone to grow double-digits (best iPhone quarter ever), gross margin guided to 47–48%, OpEx $18.1–$18.5B, OI&E ≈$150M, tax ~17%; guidance includes ~$1.4B tariff costs; Services growth to be similar to FY25 pace .
- Versus S&P Global consensus*, Apple posted a clean beat: revenue $102.47B vs $102.25B*, EPS $1.85 vs $1.77*, and gross margin 47.18% vs 46.47%*; upside was driven by favorable mix, Services strength, and strong early iPhone 17 demand despite supply constraints .
- Strategic narrative: management emphasized Apple Intelligence and Private Cloud Compute investments (including new server manufacturing in Houston) and expects continued elevated AI-related OpEx and CapEx, while maintaining a hybrid first/third-party data center strategy .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record Services and iPhone: Services revenue hit an all‑time high of $28.8B (+15% Y/Y) with broad-based category and geographic strength; iPhone set a September-quarter record at $49B (+6% Y/Y) with a September record for upgraders .
- Margin execution: Company gross margin was 47.2%, above the high end of guidance, driven by favorable mix even with ~$1.1B tariff costs; product GM was 36.2%, services GM 75.3% .
- Confidence and product cycle: CEO highlighted “our best iPhone lineup ever” (iPhone 17 family) and record fiscal-year revenue of $416B; heading into holiday, Apple expects the “best ever” December for the company and for iPhone .
Selected quotes:
- “September quarter revenue record of $102.5 billion… and an all‑time revenue record for Services.” – Tim Cook
- “Gross margin was 47.2%, above the high end of our guidance range… driven by favorable mix.” – CFO
What Went Wrong
- Greater China softness: Greater China revenue declined 4% Y/Y, largely from iPhone; management cited supply constraints on iPhone 16 and 17 models as the primary driver; expects return to growth in December quarter .
- Product category plateau in Wearables/iPad: Wearables, Home & Accessories ($9.0B) and iPad ($7.0B) were roughly flat Y/Y, facing tough comps and product timing .
- Ongoing tariff headwinds: ~$1.1B September-quarter tariff costs and ~$1.4B embedded in December guidance; while China cut certain tariff rates from 20% to 10%, tariffs remain a material cost factor .
Financial Results
Headline P&L vs Prior Periods
Note: Q4 2024 EPS was depressed by a one‑time $10.2B net tax charge related to EU State Aid decision; management references adjusted Y/Y comparisons for EPS growth .
Actual vs S&P Global Consensus* (Q4 2025)
Values with asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.
Revenue by Category (Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024)
Management color: iPhone +6% Y/Y; Mac +13% Y/Y; Services +15% Y/Y; iPad and Wearables roughly flat .
Revenue by Geography (Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024)
Additional KPIs and Cash/Returns (Q4 2025)
Guidance Changes
Notes: Management highlighted lower China tariff rates (20%→10%) in certain cases now factored into December outlook .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategy and Product Strength: “We’re heading into the holiday season with a truly remarkable lineup… our best iPhone lineup ever… and an all‑time revenue record for Services” – Tim Cook .
- Margins and Costs: “Company gross margin was 47.2%, above the high end of our guidance… This includes approximately $1.1B of tariff related costs” – CFO .
- Guidance Tone: “We expect our December total company revenue to grow by 10% to 12% Y/Y… iPhone revenue to grow double digits… gross margin 47–48%… OpEx $18.1–$18.5B” – CFO .
- AI Investments: “We are significantly increasing our investments in AI… we built Private Cloud Compute… servers manufactured in Houston ramping now” – Management .
Q&A Highlights
- iPhone demand and constraints: Strong early iPhone 17 demand with constraints on several models; management not forecasting balance timing but working to fulfill orders .
- China dynamics: September softness (-4% Y/Y) driven by iPhone supply constraints; store traffic up and subsidies supportive; management expects return to growth in December .
- Services durability: Mid-teens growth broad-based and organic (no tax effects); advertising category (1P+3P combined) set a record, while management declined to break out search specifically .
- Margins and tariffs: December GM guided up (47–48%) on favorable mix despite ~$1.4B tariffs; China tariff rates reduced in certain cases (20%→10%) temper cost drag .
- OpEx/AI: Step-up in OpEx driven by R&D for AI; management maintains hybrid data center approach and continues to pursue selective M&A to accelerate the roadmap .
Estimates Context
- Q4 2025 beats vs S&P Global consensus*: revenue $102.47B vs $102.25B*, EPS $1.85 vs $1.77*, gross margin 47.18% vs 46.47%* .
- Implications: Better-than-expected margin execution (mix) and Services outperformance likely drive upward revisions to EPS and GM trajectory; December revenue growth color (10–12%) and iPhone double-digit guide may lift near-term Street forecasts for Q1 seasonality .
Values with asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Clean beat and constructive guide: Q4 outperformed on revenue, EPS, and GM; December guide (10–12% Y/Y) and iPhone double-digit growth set up a strong holiday quarter and near-term positive estimate revisions .
- Mix and Services driving margins: Upside GM came from favorable mix; Services strength (75%+ margin) remains a structural tailwind to profitability and cash generation .
- Near-term watch item: iPhone 17 supply constraints persist; faster supply normalization is a catalyst for December upside; management not yet timing the balance .
- China: September weakness tied to supply constraints rather than demand; management expects a return to growth in December; tariff rate relief in China helps cost profile at the margin .
- AI investment ramp: Expect elevated OpEx (and CapEx) as Apple scales Apple Intelligence and Private Cloud Compute; hybrid model helps manage capacity and spend .
- Capital returns intact: $24B returned in Q4 ($20B buybacks, $3.9B dividends) with $0.26/share dividend declared; net cash position $34B provides continued flexibility .
- Trading setup: Positive narrative into holiday on iPhone strength, Services momentum, and improving GM; monitor updates on supply constraints, China demand follow-through, and AI feature rollouts for catalysts .