Q3 2024 Summary
Published Jan 6, 2025, 8:15 PM UTC- AbbVie's Immunology Portfolio is Demonstrating Superior Efficacy and Expanding Market Share Across Multiple Indications
- Strong Confidence in Long-Term Growth of the Aesthetics Business Driven by Innovative Products
- Strategic Investments in Neuroscience Pipeline Position AbbVie for Long-Term Growth
- AbbVie's long-term revenue target of greater than $9 billion by 2029 for its aesthetics business is uncertain and highly dependent on economic recovery and new product launches. The company acknowledges that achieving this requires compound growth of around 11%, but current market conditions suggest growth may only reach high single digits.
- Persistent challenging economic conditions have negatively impacted Juvederm sales, potentially impairing future growth in the aesthetics segment if these conditions continue. AbbVie moderated its Juvederm outlook due to poor performance and admits that achieving long-term guidance is dependent on market recovery.
- Uncertainty surrounds the success of the Cerevel Therapeutics acquisition, particularly regarding pending emraclidine data for schizophrenia. Analysts express skepticism about the potential effect size in upcoming studies, suggesting that if results are unfavorable, it could impact the value of the acquisition and AbbVie's growth in neuroscience.
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2025 Growth Outlook
Q: Is mid-single-digit growth still expected in 2025?
A: Management expressed strong confidence in achieving robust mid-single-digit growth in both top line and bottom line for 2025. They noted that overperformance from SKYRIZI and RINVOQ is more than offsetting HUMIRA's decline. They highlighted a $1.3 billion increase in guidance for SKYRIZI and RINVOQ , and expect positive momentum across their portfolio, including oncology and neuroscience. -
Aesthetics Long-Term Targets
Q: Can you still hit the $9B Aesthetics target by 2029?
A: Management believes they can achieve the over $9 billion target by 2029 for the Aesthetics business. They acknowledge it requires around 11% compound annual growth. While market recovery to high single digits is anticipated, they expect innovations like the short-acting BoNT/E launching in 2026 to drive growth beyond market recovery. They will reassess the target in 2026 based on market recovery and BoNT/E performance. -
SKYRIZI and RINVOQ Pricing
Q: Any changes in SKYRIZI and RINVOQ pricing/access in 2025?
A: Contracting for 2025 is nearly complete, with no material changes expected in access for SKYRIZI and RINVOQ across Medicare and commercial plans. They anticipate low single-digit negative pricing impact due to rebates, which is modest compared to prior years. -
Neuroscience Pipeline Strategy
Q: How does the Alliad acquisition fit into neuroscience plans?
A: The Alliad acquisition strengthens their neuroscience portfolio, particularly in Alzheimer's disease. They see differentiation in Alliad's approach, offering higher concentrations in CSF and extended half-life, potentially enabling monthly subcutaneous dosing. This could result in better cognitive benefits and reduced side effects, addressing challenges like ARIA. Neuroscience is a key growth area, focusing on psychiatry, migraine, Parkinson's, and neurodegeneration. -
Imaraclidine Data Expectations
Q: Any insights on upcoming imaraclidine data?
A: Management is encouraged by imaraclidine's profile as a once-daily agent with no food effect and a favorable safety profile. They have not observed significant GI or bladder issues in Phase Ib data and do not anticipate hepatic monitoring requirements. Data readout is expected in the coming months, and they are optimistic about its potential in neurodegenerative-associated psychosis. -
VRAYLAR Guidance Adjustment
Q: Explain the VRAYLAR guidance reduction.
A: VRAYLAR guidance was reduced by $100 million due to slight channel mix changes accumulating over the year, leading to a small negative price impact. However, this was offset by an increase in BOTOX Therapeutics, keeping the neuroscience growth area guidance stable. They also extended their collaboration with Gideon Richter to develop additional psychiatric treatments. -
Eye Care Strategy
Q: How strategic is the eye care business?
A: Eye care is one of their five key growth areas, though not as high a growth driver as others. They are building depth in areas like diabetic retinopathy and dry eye. While their primary focus is within these growth areas, they remain open to opportunistic investments in other therapeutic areas like metabolics if they see differentiation. -
Pipeline Mechanisms (TL1A)
Q: Thoughts on new pipeline mechanisms like TL1A?
A: Management is confident in SKYRIZI's efficacy over emerging orals. They view mechanisms like TL1A as important, especially in combination therapies. While TL1A shows encouraging data in ulcerative colitis, they believe it needs to be part of a combination approach to be differentiated. They are excited about other early-stage mechanisms and will share more as data matures. -
Erapiden Placebo Effect Management
Q: How are you managing placebo effects in erapiden studies?
A: They have implemented strategies to manage placebo responses, such as limiting countries and sites, central eligibility review, and training raters. While it's difficult to predict erosion due to placebo, they are confident that even if effect size diminishes, erapiden's safety and tolerability will keep it competitive. -
Head-to-Head Trial Against ENTYVIO
Q: What's your confidence in SKYRIZI vs. ENTYVIO trial?
A: Management is confident due to SKYRIZI's high 76% endoscopic improvement in maintenance phase among biologic-naïve ulcerative colitis patients. They believe this provides potential for superiority over ENTYVIO, especially on objective endpoints like endoscopic improvement. They view endoscopic improvements as highly predictive of long-term outcomes.