Executive Summary

Q2 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.93 beat Wall Street consensus of ~$0.80*, while GAAP EPS was $0.45; revenue of $21.17B missed consensus of ~$21.81B*, and total segment operating profit fell 10% YoY to $830M .
Guidance tightened: management now expects full-year 2025 adjusted EPS to be approximately $4.00/share, down from prior $4.00–$4.75 range; Q4 is expected to carry roughly two-thirds of H2 earnings given late-quarter biofuel policy clarity .
Operational execution improved: Decatur East recommissioned, cost savings initiatives advancing, unscheduled downtime at best levels in 5+ years, and the previously disclosed material weakness in internal controls was remediated .
Catalyst path: emerging RVO/45Z clarity implies stronger crush and biodiesel margins into Q4; network consolidations and Decatur East ramp should aid Nutrition margin recovery, with segment margin/volume tailwinds to accelerate late-year .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Nutrition delivered sequential improvement and Q2 operating profit rose 5% YoY to $114M; Flavors performance improved and Animal Nutrition margins strengthened, aided by ongoing turnaround actions .
Decatur East recommissioning supports Specialty Ingredients cost normalization into H2; CEO highlighted best performance in limiting unplanned downtime in more than five years, reflecting execution excellence .
Corporate finance discipline: leverage at 2.1x, CapEx YTD held to $596M and full-year CapEx range lowered to $1.3–$1.5B from $1.5–$1.7B, with continued dividend return ($495M YTD) .

Management quote: “We achieved our best performance in limiting unscheduled and unplanned downtime in more than five years…[and] are well-positioned to exit 2025 with strong momentum” — Juan Luciano, CEO .

What Went Wrong

Ag Services & Oilseeds (AS&O) operating profit declined 17% YoY; Crushing was down 75% YoY on lower vegetable oil demand amid biofuel/trade policy uncertainty; Ag Services also saw volume/margin pressure and negative timing impacts .
Revenue fell 4.9% YoY to $21.17B with gross profit modestly down; GAAP EPS dropped to $0.45 from $0.98 YoY, reflecting margin compression and specified items tied to portfolio optimization and impairments .
Ethanol margins remained pressured; CFO guided to mid–single-digit decline in ethanol EBITDA margins for 2025 vs 2024 and reiterated softness in starch demand (paper/corrugated) and higher EMEA corn costs .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results – Quarter-over-Quarter

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$21.50	$20.18	$21.17
Gross Profit ($USD Billions)	$1.36	$1.18	$1.37
Earnings Before Income Taxes ($USD Millions)	$667	$353	$279
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$1.17	$0.61	$0.45
Adjusted EPS ($)	$1.14	$0.70	$0.93
Total Segment Operating Profit ($USD Millions)	$1,051	$747	$830

Q2 Year-over-Year

Metric	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$22.25	$21.17
Gross Profit ($USD Billions)	$1.40	$1.37
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$0.98	$0.45
Adjusted EPS ($)	$1.03	$0.93
Total Segment Operating Profit ($USD Millions)	$925	$830

Segment Operating Profit – Trend

Segment ($USD Millions)	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Ag Services & Oilseeds	$644	$412	$379
- Ag Services	$254	$159	$113
- Crushing	$212	$47	$33
- Refined Products & Other	$121	$134	$156
- Wilmar (Equity Earnings)	$57	$72	$77
Carbohydrate Solutions	$319	$240	$337
- Starches & Sweeteners	$304	$207	$304
- Vantage Corn Processors	$15	$33	$33
Nutrition	$88	$95	$114
- Human Nutrition	$62	$75	$92
- Animal Nutrition	$26	$20	$22

Segment Revenues – Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024

Segment Revenues ($USD Billions)	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Ag Services & Oilseeds	$17.33	$16.27
Carbohydrate Solutions	$2.89	$2.79
Nutrition	$1.91	$1.99
Total Segment Revenues	$22.14	$21.05

Note: Nutrition revenue uplift in Q2 included ~$55M from a contract cancellation in Health & Wellness; the full amount is not included in Nutrition segment operating profit .

KPIs

KPI	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Processed Volumes – Oilseeds (000s MT)	9,050	9,091	9,051
Processed Volumes – Corn (000s MT)	4,708	4,581	4,614
Cash from Operating Activities (YTD, $USD Billions)	—	—	$3.96
Cash from Ops before WC (YTD, $USD Billions)	—	—	$4.0
CapEx (YTD, $USD Millions)	—	$291	$596
Leverage Ratio (Net Debt/EBITDA, company-reported)	—	—	2.1x
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)	$611	$864	$1,057
Short-term Debt ($USD Millions)	$1,903	$2,765	$856
Long-term Debt incl. Current ($USD Millions)	$8,254	$8,300	$8,372
Shareholders’ Equity ($USD Millions)	$22,178	$22,127	$22,438

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EPS	FY 2025	$4.00–$4.75/share	~$4.00/share	Lowered/Tightened
CapEx	FY 2025	$1.5–$1.7B (prior expectation)	$1.3–$1.5B	Lowered
Soy Crush Margins	Q4 2025	N/A	~$60–$70/MT	New color
Canola Crush Margins	Q4 2025	N/A	~$55–$65/MT	New color
H2 Earnings Split	H2 2025	N/A	~1/3 in Q3, ~2/3 in Q4	New color

Other guidance notes: AS&O margin improvement expected to primarily benefit Q4 as a portion of Q3 order book was already booked prior to policy clarity .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4’24 and Q1’25)	Current Period (Q2’25)	Trend
Biofuel policy (RVO, 45Z)	Uncertainty weighed on margins; provided 2025 EPS range ; reiterated lower end of EPS range	EPA RVO proposal (2026–27) and extended 45Z; soybean oil rallied; improved crush margins expected mainly in Q4	Improving policy clarity
Decatur East plant	Insurance proceeds; downtime impacted Nutrition in 2024	Recommissioned and ramping to planned run rates; expected to reduce Specialty Ingredients cost headwinds	Improving operations
Cost savings & portfolio simplification	Announced $500–$750M savings target; dividend increase	Targeted network consolidations and facility closures/JV moves; continued self-help execution	Ongoing execution
Internal controls	Material weakness disclosed in 2024 filings	Material weakness remediated (segment disclosures) after robust plan/testing	Resolved
Demand softness (consumer)	Stable Carb Solutions with mix optimization	Pockets of sluggish demand in snacks/sweets; managing through mix and cost	Mixed
Ethanol margins	Prior-year pressure; VCP down YoY	2025 ethanol EBITDA margins expected mid single-digit decline YoY; Q2 margins positive but below 2024	Softer
Crush margins	Q4’24 North America weaker; EMEA mixed	Q2 soy/canola margins lower YoY; Q4’25 expected improvement with policy clarity	Near-term weak, improving in Q4

Management Commentary

“We continued to make progress on operational improvements…advancing our pipeline of portfolio simplification…[and] disciplined capital allocation.” — Juan Luciano, CEO .
“We expect improved AS&O margins will primarily benefit our fourth quarter results…global soybean crush margins ~$60–$70/MT and canola ~$55–$65/MT.” — Monish Patolawala, CFO .
“We have successfully remediated the material weakness in internal controls for segment disclosures.” — Monish Patolawala, CFO .
“Nutrition delivered sequential improvement…Flavors growth and Animal Nutrition margins.” — Monish Patolawala, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

Earnings cadence: Management guided to roughly one-third of H2 earnings in Q3 and two-thirds in Q4; exit rate for 2025 is expected to set up 2026, but too early to annualize .
Crush outlook: Biofuel policy clarity favors soybean oil; management sees oil taking ~50% of crush share in supportive scenarios, with margins benefitting across crush/biodiesel complexes if SREs remain benign .
Nutrition run-rate: Decatur East downtime cost ~$20–25M/quarter; normalization into late 2025/2026 removes ~$100M annual headwind; Flavors strong, Biotics +9% revenue, Animal Nutrition margins improving .
Internal controls/SEC: Material weakness remediated via enhanced controls/training/testing and auditor oversight; continued focus on transparency and compliance .
HFCS concern: No changes observed in beverage customer orders/volumes; Carb Solutions managing mix across >22 wet-mill products despite pockets of consumer softness .

Estimates Context

Metric	Q2 2025 Consensus	Q2 2025 Actual	Surprise
EPS (Primary, $)	0.80*	0.93	Beat
Revenue ($USD Billions)	21.81*	21.17	Miss
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	930*	742*	Miss

Additional estimates: EPS estimates count = 7*, Revenue estimates count = 6*, Target Price Consensus Mean = $57.6*.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implications: Mixed print with EPS beat driven by non-GAAP adjustments and segment mix, but top-line and EBITDA below consensus suggest margin compression in AS&O and Carb Solutions; late-quarter policy clarity sets up margin recovery skewed to Q4 .

Key Takeaways for Investors

EPS beat and tightened full-year guide to ~$4.00/share should focus attention on Q4 execution and policy tailwinds; positioning into Q4 crush cycles is key .
Expect margin inflection in AS&O in Q4 on RVO/45Z clarity; management provided explicit crush margin ranges, with Q3 constrained by already-booked orders .
Nutrition recovery is credible with Decatur East ramp and Animal Nutrition margin improvements; Specialty Ingredients cost headwinds should fade, aiding segment profitability into 2026 .
Ethanol remains a structural headwind (mid single-digit EBITDA margin decline vs 2024); model Carb Solutions conservatively, especially EMEA given corn quality/higher costs .
Balance sheet flexibility intact with 2.1x leverage and lowered CapEx; continued dividend return supports shareholder yield while cost savings initiatives advance .
Risk factors: timing/mark-to-market impacts, consumer demand softness in snacks/sweets, and any deviation in final RVO/SRE outcomes could shift margin realization across crush/refining .
Operational narrative positive: internal controls weakness remediated and unscheduled downtime at multi-year lows; network consolidations (e.g., Bushnell closure) and CO2 conversion partnership (OCOchem) support the self-help/cost and innovation agenda .

Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q3-to-Q2 window)

ADM announces streamlining of soy protein network, ceasing Bushnell, IL operations; leverages recommissioned Decatur East plant for efficiency gains .
OCOchem and ADM partner to build CO2 conversion facility at Decatur corn complex, advancing decarbonization pathways tied to Carb Solutions .
ADM to present at Barclays Consumer Staples Conference (Sept. 3), reinforcing investor engagement and narrative .

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