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Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Adjusted EPS of $0.92 and total segment operating profit of $845M; GAAP EPS $0.22. EPS beat consensus, while revenue missed; FY25 adjusted EPS guidance cut to $3.25–$3.50 (from ~$4.00), citing weaker crush margins .
  • Ag Services & Oilseeds steady sequentially but pressured YoY; Crushing down 93% YoY; Nutrition improved 24% YoY with record Flavors North America revenue, and Specialty Ingredients aided by Decatur East restart .
  • Cash flow robust: YTD operating cash flow $5.8B; inventory down $3.2B YTD; net leverage ~1.8x; management reiterates cost-savings ($200–$300M in 2025; $500–$750M over 3–5 years) .
  • Key catalysts: EPA RVO clarity (weeks/months), evolving China trade flows, ethanol export momentum, and continued portfolio optimization; management sees a more constructive 2026 setup .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Nutrition operating profit rose 24% YoY to $130M; Human Nutrition +12% and Animal Nutrition +79% YoY; “Flavors North America achieved record quarterly revenue” .
  • Strong execution and cash discipline: YTD operating cash flow $5.8B; inventory reduced ~$3.2B YTD; net leverage improved to ~1.8x; “best total export volume for September since 2016” in Ag Services .
  • Self-help agenda advancing: targeted streamlining, Decatur East back online producing white flake; management on track for $200–$300M 2025 savings and $500–$750M over 3–5 years .

What Went Wrong

  • Crushing severely pressured: operating profit fell 93% YoY (to $13M) on muted demand from deferred U.S. biofuel policy and trade challenges; prior-year quarter benefited from $24M insurance proceeds .
  • Carbohydrate Solutions down 26% YoY; Starches & Sweeteners -36% YoY amid lower global demand and persistent high EMEA corn costs tied to crop quality issues .
  • FY25 adjusted EPS guidance lowered to $3.25–$3.50 due to softness in crush margins; Q4 margin outlook flattish to slightly up sequentially but lower YoY; ethanol margins expected ~10% below Q4’24 .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$20.175 $21.166 $20.372
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.61 $0.45 $0.22
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.70 $0.93 $0.92
Total Segment Operating Profit ($USD Millions)$747 $830 $845

Segment operating profit (sequential trajectory):

Segment OP ($USD Millions)Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Ag Services & Oilseeds412 379 379
Carbohydrate Solutions240 337 336
Nutrition95 114 130

Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024 (selected YoY):

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$19.937 $20.372
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.04 $0.22
Adjusted EPS ($)$1.09 $0.92
Total Segment OP ($USD Millions)$1,037 $845

KPIs and operational metrics:

KPIQ3 2024Q3 2025
Oilseeds processed volumes (000 MT)8,410 8,803
Corn processed volumes (000 MT)4,943 4,666

Additional cash/balance sheet context (YTD as of 9/30/2025):

  • Net cash provided by operating activities: $5.765B .
  • Cash and cash equivalents: $1.235B .
  • Net leverage ratio: ~1.8x (as of September) .

Vs. Wall Street consensus (S&P Global):

MetricQ3 2025 Consensus (S&P)*ActualBeat/Miss
EPS ($)0.853*0.92 Beat
Revenue ($USD Billions)$20.775*$20.372 Miss
EBITDA ($USD Millions)950*690*Miss

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Non-GAAP adjustments:

  • Specified items in Q3: $220M, including portfolio optimization/impairment and ADM’s share of Wilmar penalty ($163M); adjusted EPS reconciles to $0.92 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EPSFY 2025~$4.00/share $3.25–$3.50/share Lowered
CapExFY 2025$1.3–$1.5B $1.3–$1.5B (maintained) Maintained
Global soybean crush marginsQ4 2025$60–$70/mt (projection in Aug) Continued softness; flattish to slightly up vs Q3; lower YoY (no range) Lowered vs prior expectation
Ethanol EBITDA marginsQ4 2025N/A~10% below Q4 2024 Lower vs prior year
Insurance proceeds (AS&O)Q4 2025~$50M in Q4’24 ~$10M in Q4’25 Lower
Insurance proceeds (Carbohydrate Solutions)Q4 2025~$40M in Q4’24 ~$20M in Q4’25 Lower
Insurance proceeds (Nutrition)Q4 2025~$45M in Q4’24 ~$5M in Q4’25 Lower
Dividend per shareQ4 2025N/A$0.51 declared (Dec 11, 2025 pay) Announced
Net leverage ratio targetYE 2025N/A~2.0x target Target restated

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Biofuel policy (RVOs)Expect improvement in H2; affirmed full-year at lower end ($4–$4.75); Q4 crush margins projected $60–$70/mt Deferred policy drives weak crush; FY25 cut to $3.25–$3.50; expect clarity in weeks/months; constructive 2026 Near-term headwind; medium-term tailwind
Decatur East (Specialty Ingredients)Recommissioning; ~$20–$25M/quarter headwind while down; benefits in H2 Back online producing white flake; expect improving Specialty Ingredients Improving
Cost savings/self-helpTarget $500–$750M over 3–5 years; network optimization On track $200–$300M in 2025 and $500–$750M over 3–5 years Ongoing execution
Starches & Sweeteners demandSoftness (paper/corrugated); EMEA corn quality costs Lower global demand persists; high EMEA corn costs continue Persisting softness
Ag Services exports/tradeLower volumes amid uncertainty; later Q4 benefit expected Best September exports since 2016; Q4 softer vs earlier forecast; China deal timing critical Mixed
Animal Nutrition strategyN/AJV with Alltech to pivot to higher-margin specialty; operations in 2026 Strategic repositioning
Working capital disciplineInventory down $2.2B in H1; leverage 2.1x Inventory down ~$3.2B YTD; leverage ~1.8x Improving
Digital strategy pivotN/APivot away from large global implementations to regional agile projects Refocus

Management Commentary

  • “We achieved the best total export volume for the month of September since 2016,” highlighting Ag Services strength despite crush pressure .
  • “Flavors North America achieved record quarterly revenue in the third quarter,” underscoring Nutrition momentum .
  • “We now expect adjusted earnings per share to be between $3.25 to $3.5… down from approximately $4 per share,” reflecting lower crush margins and biofuel policy deferral .
  • “RINs need to climb… which will pull demand for soybean oil… and increase crush margins,” outlining the expected sequence once policy clarity arrives .
  • “Our plants are ready to crush very hard… we look at 2026 with optimism,” emphasizing operational readiness and medium-term outlook .

Q&A Highlights

  • Crush margin trajectory: Q4 margins flattish to slightly up vs Q3 but lower YoY; heavy booking ahead limits upside; mark-to-market could move between quarters .
  • Insurance proceeds cadence: Q4’25 ~ $35M across segments, funded ~half captive and half third-party (vs ~$135M Q4’24, mostly third-party) .
  • Biofuel policy timing: EPA prioritizing RVO; management refrains from speculating on timing but expects gradual improvements (RINs then crush margins) post-clarity .
  • Ag Services outlook: Q3 strong; Q4 softer vs prior expectations as margin opportunities tighten; China deal details (timing, volume accounting) remain unclear .
  • Soybean oil trade dynamics: If domestic demand exceeds supply, U.S. could import soybean oil; prices would adjust; ADM prepared to maximize domestic supply first .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 EPS beat consensus (0.92 vs 0.853); revenue missed ($20.372B vs $20.775B); EBITDA missed (690 vs 950); FY25 EPS consensus ~3.50 aligns with lowered guidance range .
  • Expect Street to trim near-term crush and EBITDA assumptions, with potential upward 2026 revisions contingent on EPA RVO clarity and China trade flows .
  • S&P Global consensus details: EPS Q3 2025 0.853* (8 est.); Revenue Q3 2025 $20.776B* (6 est.); FY25 EPS 3.502* (11 est.); Target price mean $57.6* (10 est.). *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term caution: Guidance cut and continued crush margin softness suggest limited upside into Q4; watch EPA RVO finalization and any China purchase confirmations as potential catalysts .
  • Nutrition turnaround gaining traction: Record Flavors North America revenue, Decatur East restart, portfolio streamlining and Alltech JV position for mix/margin improvement in 2026 .
  • Cash discipline intact: Strong YTD operating cash flow, inventory reductions and improved leverage support resilience and optionality for 2026 recovery plays .
  • Segment skew: Expect Ag Services to benefit from harvest/export programs; Crushing remains policy-sensitive; Carbohydrate Solutions pressured by EMEA corn costs and S&S demand softness .
  • Tactical setup: Into Q4, balance sheet strength and booked positions limit volatility; traders should watch RIN pricing, replacement margins, and insurance timing marks at quarter-end .
  • Dividend continuity: 376th consecutive quarterly dividend declared ($0.51/share), signaling capital return consistency despite cyclical pressures .
  • 2026 narrative: Management expects constructive biofuel/trade environment, with ADM’s asset readiness enabling accelerated crush and improved margins when clarity arrives .

Sources: Press release and 8‑K exhibits for Q3 2025 results ; Q3 2025 earnings call transcript ; Q2 2025 results and call ; Q1 2025 results and call ; dividend release .