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    Automatic Data Processing Inc (ADP)

    Q2 2024 Summary

    Published Jan 10, 2025, 5:10 PM UTC
    Initial Price$240.58September 30, 2023
    Final Price$232.97December 30, 2023
    Price Change$-7.61
    % Change-3.16%
    • ADP is experiencing strong sales and bookings momentum, particularly in the down market, with tremendous second quarter results and solid pipelines, indicating robust demand and effective execution.
    • The PEO segment is showing positive momentum with the fourth consecutive quarter of strong bookings, suggesting a potential reacceleration and highlighting the strength of ADP's value proposition.
    • Retention rates are performing better than expected, with retention running at record levels, reflecting strong client satisfaction and loyalty, which may lead to higher revenue stability.
    • Potential Decline in Employer Services Retention Due to Client Bankruptcies: ADP anticipates pressure on retention rates in the back half of the fiscal year due to potential increases in client bankruptcies and out-of-business events, which could negatively impact retention.
    • Higher Selling Expenses Impacting PEO Margins: Increased selling expenses in the Professional Employer Organization (PEO) segment are contributing to margin headwinds, possibly indicating rising costs to compete in this space.
    • Longer Sales Cycles in Enterprise and Upmarket Segments: ADP is experiencing prolonged deal cycles and increased complexity in its enterprise and upmarket segments, which may affect new business bookings and revenue growth in these higher-value markets.
    1. PEO Business Outlook
      Q: PEO acceleration, but revenue outlook hasn't changed; timing issue or sector concentration?
      A: Bookings for the Professional Employer Organization (PEO) are very good, with pays per control stabilizing. These improvements are expected to lead to the reacceleration we've been pointing to over the last couple of quarters.

    2. AI Investment and Returns
      Q: How are you anticipating return on AI investments and timeframe?
      A: We're investing in Artificial Intelligence (AI) across product innovation, efficiency, and go-to-market strategies. While current investments are modest, we expect to see returns down the road as these tools enhance client experience, associate efficiency, and sales effectiveness.

    3. ES Margins and Interest Rates
      Q: Is lower ES margin guidance due to rate surprises?
      A: Float income is a factor in guiding margins; we use market yield curves to estimate returns. No surprises beyond overall market changes, and we remain cautious given interest rate movements.

    4. Sales Trends and Competitive Landscape
      Q: How are 3Q sales trends and competitive pricing?
      A: Demand remains strong; companies are still hiring and investing in HR. The down market performed well with ~30,000 units onboarded in January alone. The competitive landscape is unchanged, and we have solid pipelines across all market segments.

    5. Average Balances and Interest Rate Impact
      Q: Impact of payroll tax deferral on balance decline and outlook?
      A: The payroll tax deferral caused a prior decline, but that's now behind us. We expect 2–3% balance growth for the rest of the year, though lower interest rates present a $20 million headwind.

    6. Pricing Environment
      Q: Any changes in price pressure or competitor discounts?
      A: We're not seeing changes in the price environment and remain appropriately priced. We continue to offer premium services with better value, and last year's price increases were well received.

    7. PEO Selling Expenses
      Q: Are higher PEO seller expenses due to increased competition?
      A: There's nothing unusual about our selling expenses; higher sales naturally lead to higher selling expenses. We're not seeing any fundamental changes in the competitive landscape driving these costs.

    8. International Growth Opportunities
      Q: Comment on international value proposition and need for partnerships.
      A: International revenue isn't where we'd like it to be, even though we pay 40% of people internationally. The value proposition differs outside the U.S., but partnerships like Canvera help us manage global treasury functions effectively.

    9. Monetization of AI Products
      Q: Is ADP Assist monetized or enhancing customer satisfaction?
      A: ADP Assist aims to make things easier for clients as part of our digital transformation, without additional charges. While not a monetization effort now, we believe AI investments will yield significant returns through new products and increased sales in the future.

    10. Pays per Control Guidance
      Q: Drivers of second half deceleration in pays per control growth?
      A: We maintain a 1–2% growth guidance for the year, building in some conservatism. Employment demand remains robust but is softening slightly.

    11. Expansion into Payments and EWA
      Q: Opportunities to increase capabilities in payments like EWA?
      A: We see tremendous opportunity with offerings like Wisely and Earned Wage Access (EWA). With 41 million wage earners paid in the U.S. and 10 million active app users, we're exploring partnerships to add value in clients' and employees' daily workflows.

    12. PEO Trends in Key Verticals
      Q: Changes in trends within big PEO verticals?
      A: Trends in professional services have stabilized and are no longer contributing to deceleration.

    13. PEO Bookings and Demand
      Q: Is ADP doing anything differently in PEO or is demand changing?
      A: Demand remains incredibly strong; we're focused on executing PEO bookings. This marks the fourth quarter of positive bookings momentum for the PEO.

    14. EBIT Margin Outperformance
      Q: What drove EBIT margin outperformance; is GenAI spend incremental?
      A: Modest revenue outperformance contributed to margins. We have a bit of incremental GenAI spend, slightly higher than previously planned, but not a significant amount.

    15. Retention Trends and Outlook
      Q: Anticipating lower ES retention decline due to fewer bankruptcies or better service?
      A: Retention is better than expected. While we haven't seen increased bankruptcies yet, we're planning for some pressure in the back half as a precaution.

    16. Float Income Guidance
      Q: Explain increase in client short portfolio outlook.
      A: We've tweaked our borrowing strategy by spreading borrowing over several days, increasing average short balances. This is not a change in investment strategy but improves market access.

    17. ERTC Impact on Demand
      Q: Changes in client demand or competition post-ERTC?
      A: The accelerated Employee Retention Tax Credit (ERTC) deadline increased processing volume. Financial impact to us is minimal; we're focused on supporting clients through this transition.

    18. Implementation Revenue
      Q: What percentage of revenue is from internal implementations?
      A: Less than 10% of our overall revenue comes from setup fees; it's not a substantial amount.

    19. Pricing Strategy and Increases
      Q: Thoughts on this year's price increases?
      A: We'll consider price adjustments in the upcoming budget cycle, weighing factors like inflation. Last year's increases were well received, and we aim to balance competitiveness with long-term client value.

    20. Offsetting Interest Rate Headwinds
      Q: Initiatives to offset revenue headwinds from declining rates?
      A: Declining interest rates may boost economic activity, leading to higher revenues and bookings. Our strategy includes reinvesting further out on the yield curve at higher rates to offset short-term rate declines.

    21. PEO Growth Expectations
      Q: Expect continued improvement in WSE growth; factors for revenue per WSE?
      A: Yes, we expect bookings, stability in pays per control, and favorable retention to drive reacceleration in the back half. We're monitoring factors like payroll per worksite employee and state unemployment rates.

    22. Retirement Trust Services
      Q: Discuss investment in setting up your own trust.
      A: We've launched in-house trust services due to a shrinking pool of capable third-party trustees. This offers better control over costs, leading to better pricing and service for our clients, and keeps data within ADP's ecosystem.