AD
AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING INC (ADP)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 FY25: Revenue $5.13B (+8% y/y), adjusted EBIT margin 23.7% (+40 bps y/y), GAAP diluted EPS $2.23, adjusted diluted EPS $2.26 . Versus S&P Global consensus, ADP delivered a revenue and EPS beat in Q4*.
- FY25: Revenue $20.56B (+7%), adjusted EBIT $5.35B (+9%), adjusted EBIT margin 26.0% (+50 bps), adjusted diluted EPS $10.01; GAAP diluted EPS $9.98 .
- FY26 outlook: Revenue growth 5–6%, adjusted EBIT margin expansion 50–70 bps, adjusted/GAAP diluted EPS growth 8–10%, adjusted effective tax rate ~23% .
- Key catalysts: Client funds interest tailwind (CFI revenue guided to $1.29–$1.31B; net impact from extended strategy $1.25–$1.27B) and AI/product cycle momentum (Lyric HCM, Workforce Software) balanced by expected adjusted margin contraction in Q1 FY26 before ramping through the year .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Strong Q4 close and full-year performance: “We concluded fiscal year 2025 with strong revenue and earnings growth… bolstered by record-high client satisfaction levels” — Maria Black, CEO .
- Employer Services retention hit 92.1% for the year (near record) on record client satisfaction; U.S. pays per control +1% in Q4/FY25 .
- Product momentum: Lyric HCM client wins up >50% y/y, pipeline up; Workforce Software integration driving co-selling and traction, esp. in multinational enterprise .
What Went Wrong
- ES new business bookings grew only 3% in FY25; softer finish in HRO/international with elongated decision cycles delaying Q4 closures .
- PEO margins down (–20 bps in Q4; –60 bps FY) on faster zero-margin benefits pass-through growth and higher SUI costs, despite 7% revenue and 3% WSE growth .
- Transparency shift: Management will no longer provide point margin forecasts for ES/PEO segments; directional commentary and actuals will continue, which may reduce guidance granularity .
Financial Results
Segment breakdown:
KPIs and portfolio economics:
Non-GAAP adjustments in Q4: $19.3M optimization initiatives added ~$0.03 to adjusted EPS; tax effects included (see reconciliation) .
Guidance Changes
FY2025 guidance changes (Q2 → Q3):
FY2026 initial outlook (Q4):
Note: Management will no longer provide point margin forecasts for ES/PEO segments; actuals and directional commentary will be provided .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We concluded fiscal year 2025 with strong revenue and earnings growth… record-high client satisfaction levels across the company.” — Maria Black, CEO .
- “Our fiscal 2026 outlook assumes a continued slight moderation in the macroeconomic environment… adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 50 to 70 basis points.” — Peter Hadley, CFO .
- “We expect… client funds interest revenue will increase from $1.19 billion in fiscal 2025 to a range of $1.29 to $1.31 billion in fiscal 2026… net impact… to $1.25 to $1.27 billion.” — Peter Hadley, CFO .
- “We are already well and truly off to the races… Workforce Software being part of the integrated suite from a selling perspective.” — Peter Hadley, CFO .
- “Our pipelines remain healthy… laser-focused on accelerating ES new business bookings growth in fiscal 2026.” — Maria Black, CEO .
Q&A Highlights
- Bookings softness detail: HRO/international delays, not competitive losses; large, complex deals with elongated cycles; pipeline up y/y and still active .
- Pricing outlook: FY26 pricing contribution ~100 bps, slightly moderating from FY25; retention broad-based strength, small-business out-of-business rates better than feared .
- Workforce Software & NextGen WFN: Active co-selling; NextGen WFN expanding beyond core mid-market; improved implementation experience and fewer service contacts .
- PEO dynamics: Pass-through benefits inflation driving reported revenue; non-pass-through revenues dampened by moderating wage growth; expectation of lower SUI than FY25 .
- Margin cadence: Expect adjusted EBIT margin contraction y/y in Q1 FY26 due to acquisition timing and investments, ramping thereafter .
Estimates Context
Values with asterisks () retrieved from S&P Global. ADP beat consensus revenue and EPS in Q2–Q4 FY25.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Q4 delivered broad-based beats vs S&P Global consensus on both revenue and EPS; sequential softness from Q3 reflects normal seasonality and mix rather than demand deterioration* .
- FY26 setup balances tailwinds (CFI yield and balances, FX modest tailwind for ES) with prudent macro assumptions (0–1% U.S. pays per control, retention down 10–30 bps) .
- Margin cadence matters for trading: management flagged adjusted EBIT margin contraction in Q1 FY26 before ramp; near-term margin prints could headline risk despite full-year expansion guidance .
- Product cycle is a structural positive: Lyric HCM and NextGen WFN momentum, plus Workforce Software integration/co-selling should support bookings re-acceleration (ES bookings guide +4–7%) .
- PEO margins will likely stay pressured by benefits pass-through inflation and mix; investors should focus on revenue ex pass-throughs (guided +3–5%) and WSE growth (2–3%) for underlying performance .
- Pricing contribution remains elevated (~100 bps) vs pre-pandemic norms, offering a lever to offset macro moderation while retention remains high .
- Guidance communication shifts (no point segment margins) reduce granularity; monitor quarterly segment actuals and directional commentary for margin trajectory .
Footnote: Consensus/estimate values marked with asterisks (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.