ADP Q4 2025 Guides 10–30 bps Retention Decline Amid Strong Pipeline
- Healthy and growing pipeline with solid retention: Management repeatedly emphasized a robust, broad‐based pipeline—and despite some delayed decisions in the HRO area, these opportunities remain active and up year‐on‐year. This strong pipeline, coupled with high retention rates, supports continued demand growth. [Index 12][Index 7]
- Product innovation and operational improvements: The integration and traction from advanced offerings such as Lyric, Workforce Software NextGen, and generative AI investments have led to enhanced seller productivity and improved client satisfaction, thereby driving operational improvements and margin enhancements. [Index 8][Index 16]
- Expanding strategic partnerships: The deepening relationships, for example with Clover on embedded payroll, along with a diversified channel strategy, are expected to broaden market reach and contribute significantly to future bookings in both the down market and enterprise segments. [Index 13][Index 10]
- Delayed HRO and International Decisions: Q4 showed softness in the HRO business and international bookings, with delayed decision-making on complex, multi-department deals. This raises the risk that prolonged delays could eventually lead to cancellations or revenue shortfalls.
- Macro and Retention Headwinds: The guidance anticipates a 10 to 30 basis point decline in ES retention amid an uncertain macro environment, and relies on assumptions around client funds interest revenue. Any deterioration in macro conditions could negatively impact revenue and margins.
- Integration and Investment Pressures: Ongoing investments in AI deployments and workforce software integration are expected to yield productivity gains, but the associated costs and integration challenges may pressure margins and delay profitability improvements.
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
ES Revenue Growth | FY 2026 | 6% to 7% | 5% to 6% | lowered |
ES New Business Bookings Growth | FY 2026 | 4% to 7% | 4% to 7% | no change |
ES Retention Rate | FY 2026 | Decline of 20 bps to flat | Decline of 10 to 30 bps from 92.1% | no change |
ES Pays Per Control Growth | FY 2026 | 1% | 0% to 1% | lowered |
ES Margin | FY 2026 | 50 to 60 bps | Expected to expand driven by client funds interest revenue growth | no change |
Client Funds Interest Revenue | FY 2026 | Increased by $15M at midpoint | Increase from $1.19B to 1.29–1.31B | raised |
Average Client Funds Balance Growth | FY 2026 | 5% to 6% | 2% to 3% | lowered |
Client Funds Interest Revenue – Net Impact | FY 2026 | no prior guidance [N/A] | Increase from $1.07B to 1.25–1.27B | no prior guidance |
Client Funds Interest Revenue – Average Yield | FY 2026 | no prior guidance [N/A] | Increase from 3.2% to 3.4% | no prior guidance |
PEO Revenue Growth | FY 2026 | 6% to 7% | 5% to 7% | lowered |
PEO Revenue Growth Excluding ZM Pass-Through | FY 2026 | 5% to 6% | 3% to 5% | lowered |
Average Worksite Employee Growth | FY 2026 | 2% to 3% | 2% to 3% | no change |
PEO Margin | FY 2026 | Decrease between 60 and 80 bps | Expected to decrease | no change |
Consolidated Revenue Growth | FY 2026 | 6% to 7% | 5% to 6% | lowered |
Adjusted EBIT Margin Expansion | FY 2026 | 40 to 50 bps | 50 to 70 bps | raised |
Effective Tax Rate | FY 2026 | Around 23% | Around 23% | no change |
Adjusted EPS Growth | FY 2026 | 8% to 9% | 8% to 10% | raised |
Seasonality of Margins | FY 2026 | no prior guidance [N/A] | Expected contraction in Q1 with margins ramping later | no prior guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Sales Pipeline | Described in Q1 with strong, broad‐based pipeline ; in Q2 detailed as a healthy, year‑on‑year growth pipeline with new business activities ; and in Q3 noted for robust international, mid‑market, and enterprise pipelines, despite “lumpy” international deals | Q4 emphasized healthy pipeline activity with strategic investments and a focus on reaccelerating bookings growth despite an uncertain macro backdrop | Consistently strong with a continued focus on strategic investments and healthy pipeline metrics, even in an uncertain economic environment. |
Product Innovation | Q1 highlighted the launch and rebranding of ADP Lyric along with initial generative AI applications ; Q2 focused on early market traction for ADP Lyric and initial generative AI integration ; Q3 underscored substantial growth in new business bookings, strong market reception, and integration of AI initiatives | Q4 reported significant progress with ADP Lyric’s continued growth and expanded generative AI deployments (e.g., ADP Assist with millions of interactions), underscoring enhanced client engagement and pipeline momentum | Ongoing momentum with deeper market penetration, enhanced product features, and a clear path for future growth through advanced generative AI investments. |
Workforce Software Integration | In Q1, integration was introduced as a strategic fit to expand offerings for complex global enterprises with expected margin pressure ; Q2 noted progress in integrating scheduling, time, and attendance tools with modest expense impacts ; Q3 discussed ongoing technical and organizational integration, including anticipated margin impacts | Q4 described Workforce Software as contributing positively to bookings and the multinational narrative, with ongoing integration investments across ADP’s suite (e.g., co-selling with Lyric and GlobalView) | Steady progress with continued integration challenges and associated costs, yet the strategic contribution to multinational opportunities remains a key future growth driver. |
Strategic Partnerships & Global Expansion | Q2 introduced the Fiserv partnership with Clover and Cash Flow Central integration aimed at small businesses, with a revenue-sharing model ; Q3 elaborated on embedded payroll partnerships and the PEI acquisition in Mexico to bolster global presence | Q4 further detailed the Fiserv/Clover collaboration (RUN payroll embedded in Clover) and expansions in global payroll capabilities, highlighting their impact as key contributors to future growth | Increasing importance as partnerships evolve with deeper integration and global expansion, reinforcing ADP’s competitive positioning across local and international markets. |
PEO Performance & Retention | Q1 reported strong revenue and worksite employee growth with solid retention and modest deceleration in pays per control ; Q2 detailed robust revenue growth with modest margin declines and slight retention dips while forecasting stable pays per control ; Q3 noted similar trends with solid bookings, strong retention, and pays per control growth at around 1% | Q4 showed continued strong revenue growth with high retention and stable employer services pays per control increases, although PEO margins experienced slight contraction due to increasing costs | Consistent performance with steady revenue and retention metrics; however, margin pressures and moderated pays per control growth pose near-term challenges amid overall stability. |
Delayed HRO Decisions / Intl Bookings Challenges | Q1 did not mention specific delays; Q2 had no notable commentary; Q3 pointed out softness in international bookings due to macro uncertainty | Q4 introduced delayed HRO decisions—particularly in domestic (upper mid‑market to enterprise HRO deals)—alongside continued international softness amid macroeconomic uncertainty | An emerging concern in Q4 with notable delays in complex HRO decision-making and persistent international softness, potentially impacting future deal closures. |
Macro-Economic & FX Effects | Q1 had no specific mention; Q2 noted a strong underlying U.S. market but flagged FX headwinds and impacts from lower short-term interest rates on certain revenue segments ; Q3 discussed heightened global uncertainty with softer international deals, while a strengthening dollar initially affected revenue but was expected to improve later | Q4 highlighted continuing macroeconomic uncertainties impacting client decision-making and a trend of FX transitioning from a slight headwind in fiscal 2025 to a modest tailwind in fiscal 2026, influencing overall revenue and EPS growth | Mixed sentiment as macroeconomic headwinds increase over time, but evolving FX dynamics (moving toward a tailwind) offer some positive offset amid market uncertainties. |
Price Increases Strategy | Q1 explained a pricing strategy of 100–150 basis point increases with a modest revenue contribution (about 10 basis points) in selected European markets ; Q2 confirmed targeting 100 basis points for fiscal 2025 with strong retention supporting the approach ; Q3 did not specifically address pricing strategy | Q4 reiterated pricing assumptions of roughly 100 basis points for fiscal 2026 with slight moderation relative to fiscal 2025, contributing modestly to overall revenue growth | Stable strategy with consistent price increases; slight moderation for future periods as inflation pressures ease, with a continued but modest positive revenue impact. |
Increased Competition | Q1 contained indirect references to competitive dynamics affecting small businesses and mid-market segments without explicit focus on new entrants ; Q2 noted increased competition from SMB players as a reaffirmation of ADP’s broad-based model ; Q3 emphasized a robust competitive offer in both downmarket and mid-market segments with strong client satisfaction and partner ecosystem support | Q4 confirmed that, despite a recent competitor merger, the competitive landscape remains strong in the mid-market, with ADP maintaining high retention and a leading market position | Ongoing competitive pressure in SMB and mid-market segments, with ADP confidently asserting its strong market position and customer service as key differentiators despite industry consolidation. |
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Segment Performance
Q: HRO softness, mid market pipeline status?
A: Management explained that domestic HRO experienced a softer finish due to longer decision cycles in complex, high-value deals, but the overall pipeline remains healthy and active across small business and enterprise segments. -
Margin Outlook
Q: Key margin guidance drivers?
A: Management noted margin evolution is driven by Workforce Software integration costs, FX headwinds, and modest generative AI investments, expecting improvements as amortization and productivity gains kick in. -
Bookings Trend
Q: Weak quarter finish impact guidance?
A: While the final weeks of Q4 were slightly below expectations, management stressed that June typically leads the quarter and the overall bookings pipeline remains strong for near‐ and medium-term growth. -
Pricing & Retention
Q: Any pricing or retention surprises?
A: Management stated pricing is trending roughly in a 100 bps range reflective of recent trends, and retention remains robust across segments with only minimal declines expected, mostly from involuntary attrition. -
Workforce Integration
Q: How is Workforce Software integration progressing?
A: Management confirmed that Workforce Software is being successfully integrated, already contributing to bookings and supporting co-selling with ADP’s broader product suite, especially in multinational opportunities. -
Lyric Product
Q: What drives Lyric sales growth?
A: Management emphasized that market receptivity to Lyric has been very strong, with robust direct and partner channel sales fueling its continued expansion globally. -
AI Investment Impact
Q: How is AI affecting margins?
A: Management highlighted that recent generative AI initiatives are delivering tangible productivity improvements, with net investments remaining modest—on the order of tens of millions—offering operational efficiencies over time. -
Embedded Payroll
Q: Update on Clover partnership progress?
A: Management expressed excitement over the Clover collaboration, noting that initial deployments in a subset of the partner’s back book are promising, with plans for broader rollout in fiscal '26 to enhance embedded payroll revenues. -
Sales Partnerships
Q: Do partnerships affect sales forecast?
A: Management noted that strategic partnerships expand market visibility and distribution channels without compromising forecasting accuracy, effectively enhancing overall sales performance. -
Mid Market & Competitors
Q: How is mid market and competitive landscape?
A: Management reported steady mid-market software performance with healthy Workforce Now adoption, and emphasized that competitor moves—such as the Paycor acquisition—have not disrupted their competitive positioning. -
Pipeline Delays
Q: When do delays signal cancellations?
A: Management clarified that delays are indicative of extended, normal sales cycles rather than cancellations, with active engagement and a consistently growing pipeline across segments. -
PPC Dynamics
Q: Are ES vs PEO PPC metrics diverging?
A: Management explained that PPC metrics for both ES and PEO remain in line, with PEO showing a slight but expected higher trend, signaling a return to normal patterns. -
Retention Details
Q: Is retention drop voluntary or involuntary?
A: Management indicated that any anticipated decline in retention is expected to be largely involuntary, while overall client satisfaction and retention performance remain very high. -
International Markets
Q: Any international tariff or market pushback?
A: Management confirmed there’s no significant pushback internationally, citing strong local execution and a global presence that successfully mitigates potential tariff or political risks. -
Booking Drivers
Q: What fuels booking acceleration next year?
A: Management attributed the expected acceleration in bookings to balanced investments in sales headcount and advanced seller technology, which together enhance the ability to capture new opportunities and drive sustained growth.
Research analysts covering AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING.