Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
- The company's strategic cost reductions and efficiency initiatives are improving margins and reducing cash burn without compromising growth, with operating expenses decreasing by 15% year-over-year, aiming for a 70% target gross margin over the next 3-5 years, and expecting EBITDA breakeven by the second half of 2025. , ,
- Increasing adoption of clonoSEQ in clinical studies, with an expanding number of studies using MRD as a primary endpoint, which could significantly increase milestone revenues; the use of MRD as a primary endpoint is expected to have economics roughly twice that of secondary endpoints, potentially accelerating sequencing revenue. ,
- Strategic initiatives to increase ASP by $200 per test over the next two years through expansion of coverage, contracting at or above Medicare rates leveraging the preliminary gapfill rate, and improved collections, expected to drive significant revenue growth, with confidence bolstered by the preliminary Medicare rate and early evidence of ASP increases in the back half of the year.
- Despite significant cost reductions, Adaptive Biotechnologies is maintaining its EBITDA breakeven timeline at the second half of 2025, indicating potential limitations in accelerating profitability despite cost-saving efforts.
- Analysts have raised concerns that the company's aggressive cost-cutting measures could risk impacting top-line growth if key investments are reduced, suggesting potential challenges to sustaining revenue growth.
- The company has deprioritized its LIMS overhaul project to focus on other initiatives, which may impact future efficiency gains and suggests possible constraints in funding key infrastructure projects.
-
Cost Reductions and Margin Improvement
Q: What's driving margin improvements and lower burn?
A: The company implemented restructuring initiatives that reduced expenses, leading to increased confidence in lowering the burn rate. Significant collections across the business also contributed, and they expect continued leverage in the second half of the year. -
ASP Increases and Revenue Outlook
Q: Can you discuss the $200 ASP increase timing?
A: They have a plan to increase ASPs by $200 over the next two years through coverage, contracting, and collections initiatives. Early evidence of ASP growth is expected in the back half of the year, with strong confidence heading into 2025 supported by a new preliminary Medicare rate. -
EBITDA Breakeven Timeline
Q: Is the 2H 2025 EBITDA breakeven still on track?
A: Yes, they maintain that the second half of 2025 is the right timeline for achieving EBITDA breakeven, and they are executing towards that goal. -
clonoSEQ Gross Margins and Cost Reduction
Q: How are clonoSEQ margins and cost reductions progressing?
A: They are gaining leverage through efficiency initiatives and increased volumes, expecting a 3% to 5% improvement in sequencing margins in the back half of the year. The launch of NovaSeq in the second half of 2025 is anticipated to drive further efficiencies, targeting a 70% margin over 3–5 years. -
NovaSeq Rollout and Impact
Q: What's the timing and impact of NovaSeq rollout?
A: The NovaSeq is expected to launch in the back half of 2025, initially reducing costs by 5% to 8%. As volumes grow, the percentage reduction in cost is expected to increase, contributing to improved margins. -
DLBCL Growth and Potential
Q: Can DLBCL growth accelerate further?
A: DLBCL is now 6% of the clinical business, up from 3% a year ago. They are hitting internal projections and continue to generate data supporting its use, including a recent publication in the New England Journal of Medicine. -
ODAC Vote and MRD Adoption
Q: How does the ODAC vote impact MRD adoption?
A: The positive ODAC vote has increased confidence in using MRD as a primary endpoint. While formal FDA guidance timing is uncertain, pharma partners aren't waiting, and it's expected to solidify long-term pharma business growth, though it may not impact 2024 revenue significantly. -
MRD Pharma Milestone Revenue
Q: What's behind the recent $3M MRD pharma milestone?
A: The $3 million milestone was from a study that recently got approval where MRD data was used in the submission. It was not a result of the ODAC decision or related to converting endpoints. -
Risk of Cost Cuts on Revenue
Q: Could cost cuts hurt top-line MRD growth?
A: No, sales and marketing were relatively untouched. The focus was on reducing G&A overhead without affecting top-line growth. They feel confident in making the right investments to hit their numbers. -
Epic Integrations and Utilization
Q: How are Epic integrations affecting utilization?
A: With 6 sites integrated, they see immediate uptake, including double-digit increases in test volumes within a quarter and more ordering providers. Larger accounts going live by end of 2024 could further impact business. -
Community Setting Adoption
Q: Are further investments needed in community settings?
A: While they've seen 20–25% of business from the community segment, there's untapped potential. They've reorganized teams and are investing in EMR integration to accelerate adoption. -
LIMS Overhaul Status
Q: What's the status of the LIMS overhaul?
A: The LIMS project has been deprioritized to focus on initiatives that improve workflows with better near-term ROI, such as in reimbursement operations. -
Immune Medicine Business Outlook
Q: How is biotech funding affecting immune medicine?
A: While early research budgets aren't what they used to be, longstanding relationships with pharma continue to utilize their technology, and the business is holding up well. -
Switching from Flow Cytometry to clonoSEQ
Q: Are customers switching from flow cytometry to clonoSEQ?
A: Yes, there's an opportunity to convert customers from flow cytometry to clonoSEQ, and they continue to do so, especially with the ODAC decision reinforcing the importance of NGS MRD. -
Growth in Primary Endpoint Studies
Q: Where could primary endpoint studies go in 2–3 years?
A: While it's hard to project exact numbers, they believe the number of studies using MRD as a primary endpoint will increase significantly over the next few years. -
Additional Disease States with FDA
Q: Are you working with FDA on other diseases?
A: Investigators are engaging with the FDA on additional disease states like CLL and DLBCL. While timing is uncertain, they are hopeful that these will progress faster following the multiple myeloma precedent. -
Studies Moving to Primary Endpoints
Q: Clarify economics of studies moving to primary endpoints.
A: Milestone revenue can be roughly 2x greater for primary versus secondary endpoints. These studies are expected to be a 2025 tailwind, with a focus on growing the backlog this year.
Research analysts covering Adaptive Biotechnologies.