AerCap - Earnings Call - Q4 2020

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, and welcome to the AerCap Holdings end of the fourth quarter 2020 financial results. Today's conference is being recorded, and a transcript will be available following the call on the company's website. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Joseph McGinley, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Joseph McGinley (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Operator, and hello everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2020 conference call. With me today is our Chief Executive Officer, Aengus Kelly, and our Chief Financial Officer, Pete Juhas. Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind you that some statements made during this conference call, which are not historical facts, may be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. AerCap undertakes no obligation, other than that imposed by law, to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect future events, information, or circumstances that arise after this call. Further information concerning issues that could materially affect performance can be found in AerCap's earnings release dated March 2nd, 2021. A copy of our earnings release and conference call presentation are available on our website at aercap.com.

This call is open to the public and is being webcast simultaneously at aercap.com and will be archived for replay. We will shortly run through our earnings presentation and will allow time at the end for Q&A. As a reminder, I would ask analysts that they limit themselves to one question and one follow-up. I will now turn the call over to Aengus Kelly.

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter 2020 earnings call. I'm pleased to report another strong quarter of cash collections for the company, where we continue the significant progress we made in Q3. Operating cash flows in Q4 were almost double the Q2 level. While we expect the airline sector has a couple of choppy quarters ahead of it, the resilience and necessity of this industry to the global economy is clear from our operating cash flow numbers. With 2020 now in the books, we are focused on returning the business to healthy levels of profitability and executing on the growth opportunities that are in front of us as the vaccine rollout gains traction and as the health of our airline customers continues to improve.

Given this, we believe that the worst effects of the pandemic are firmly behind the aviation industry, and at AerCap, we are looking to the future with increasing confidence. Our conviction is based on the fact that airlines are implementing new strategies that will be required to succeed in the post-pandemic world. The first priority for all airlines is to deleverage their balance sheets and increase their fleet flexibility going forward. Both of these objectives mean asset-light balance sheets for the airlines. On our last earnings call, we highlighted that AerCap will have significant growth opportunities in the post-pandemic world. We strongly believe that this is the case, and these opportunities are materializing now.

The four things I want to focus on for today's call are: one, the significant structural shift towards leasing aircraft as airlines look to rebuild their balance sheets, creating significant growth opportunities; two, the importance of the vaccine rollout and impact of vaccine passports; three, the resilience of consumer demand; four, we remain completely focused on discipline management as we navigate the pandemic. Regarding the structural shift to leasing aircraft, it is clear that the pandemic has had a lasting impact on many airlines' balance sheets, and so their appetite for deploying large amounts of scarce capital to aircraft purchases will remain muted for some time. The priority will be to repay debt or government subsidies, not to send money to the OEMs.

This will result in an increased dependence on accessing the lessors' order books for new aircraft and also for lessors to execute sale lease-backs of their existing aircraft. The sale lease-back channel is used not only to finance their new deliveries; this channel is also an effective way for airlines to raise capital from their existing fleets. We see this trend as a tailwind for AerCap in 2021 and beyond. We are pleased to report that we've begun to capture opportunities in this market recently, agreeing LOIs for 10 aircraft to be delivered over the next 18 months. These transactions take time to bring to fruition. However, I believe the opportunity will be even greater when the OEMs get back to delivering aircraft in significant numbers.

Airlines will not repair their balance sheets overnight, and so the flexibility that comes from leasing will remain attractive to airlines for years into the future, such that we see a number of very strong years ahead for the industry. Secondly, with numerous successful vaccine rollouts taking place around the world, an end to the pandemic is in sight. Of course, it will not be a seamless or linear return to normality given the sheer scale and complexity of administering a global vaccination program, and not every airline will make it through unscathed, but we believe they will get there. In the last two months alone, over 250 million vaccine doses have been administered around the world.

This is likely to grow exponentially in the coming months, creating an inflection point as further government approvals of new vaccines take place and significantly greater supply enters the market, which can only be good news for the airline industry. The vaccine rollout is also shaping our conversations with customers who are buoyed by the improving sentiment. The improved outlook gives consumers the confidence to book further ahead, improving the cash flows of the airlines immediately. It has also helped a number of airlines to raise capital on more attractive terms. There have been a number of other positive initiatives, like the clean corridors, which were trialed by several U.S. majors, and the rollout of health passports and certificates. In the last few weeks, Iceland became the first country to issue vaccination certificates to citizens who have had both vaccination doses, with Poland following suit shortly after.

Other countries reliant on tourism, like Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus, Denmark, and Sweden, are also putting their support behind the initiatives, as well as the European Commission. Separately, IATA has rolled out a health passport app to help airlines with the administration around this, with 20 airlines taking part in the initial trial and many more likely to adopt it in the coming months. Third, on the passenger side, which is what ultimately drives the airline industry, we see no reduction in the desire to travel going forward. The consumer wants to travel. If anything, the recent travel restrictions have heightened the desire to travel, and we believe there will be a strong snapback in demand as restrictions are eased over time. We witnessed the impact of this most clearly in Europe, the U.S., and China during the summer of 2020.

For example, in Europe, air travel increased from 2,000 daily flights to over 18,000 flights in just four months, showing the pent-up demand created from the first lockdowns. This was shown once again in the U.K. last week when Boris Johnson outlined their roadmap for reopening air travel. Tour operator TUI said reservations for popular European holiday destinations increased sixfold overnight. easyJet also noted a fourfold increase in ticket sales. Lastly, we want to make it clear that we remain highly focused on managing the growth potential of the business and increasing shareholder value with every decision we make. In terms of capital allocation, which we are often asked about, we continue to review all options. Please note that any decision on this front will be made in keeping with managing the business for the long term and maintaining the strongest possible balance sheet.

As you've heard me say, the best way for a company to navigate a crisis like the pandemic is from a position of strength. Over the past year, we have done exactly that. Despite all the turbulence this pandemic has thrown at the industry, I am pleased by how well AerCap has managed its way through the crisis. In the fourth quarter, our operating cash flow increased a further 21% to $653 million, representing a doubling of operating cash flow from the Q2 lows. Our cash collection rate for Q4 improved to 96%, and this strengthening cash flow profile would not have been possible without the extraordinary work of our employees around the world, who've had a relentless focus on cash collection. Additionally, on the deferral side, I'm encouraged that the level of support being requested reduced sharply in the fourth quarter.

In fact, over the period, our deferral balance increased by only $5 million. As I said many times, the airlines will be in a position to pay their cash expenses long before they are profitable, and this is being borne out in our results. While our profitability has clearly been impacted during the last couple of quarters, it's notable that our cash generation has remained solid. This places us in a very strong position to offer helpful solutions to our airline customers coming out of the crisis. Importantly, we've an especially strong balance sheet. We've gained this position by taking a series of deliberate steps over the course of 2020. These included extending the duration of our debt, accessing very competitive financing from multiple sources, and maintaining our investment-grade ratings with all three major rating agencies, all of which will have positive benefits to shareholders into the future.

These factors have also supported our placement activity in the fourth quarter, during which we signed lease agreements for 22 narrow bodies and 9 wide bodies. This included significant multi-year extensions and long-term lease agreements on narrow and wide-body aircraft. In addition, we have signed lease agreements for a further 24 aircraft since year-end and closed five further sales, including three wide bodies. In summary, it is clear that the worst is behind us, and while there may be some choppiness for the industry and accordingly for us in the next couple of quarters, it is clear that a number of growth opportunities are before us. We've already begun to deploy a small amount of capital into sale lease-backs, the first time we've done so since 2013, and we won't hesitate to act on other attractive opportunities as they arise.

We've always managed the business with the long term in mind, and with a backdrop of increased demand for leasing, vaccination rollouts continuing at pace, and confidence in the return of consumer demand, we see a bright future for the industry ahead. AerCap has a robust balance sheet, deep customer relationships, and a strong track record to take advantage of these opportunities. I'll now hand the call over to Pete for a review of the financials.

Pete Juhas (CFO)

Thanks, Gus. Good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter, AerCap generated net income of $28 million, or $0.22 a share. Net income for the fourth quarter was affected by a number of items, including a cash accounting impact of $117 million, loss on debt extinguishment of $76 million, and loss on investment of $29 million. The cash accounting impact related primarily to airlines that are in restructuring or bankruptcy. The loss on debt extinguishment related primarily to the premiums we paid on the debt tenders that closed in October and December, and the loss on the Norwegian investment in the fourth quarter was offset by maintenance revenue related to the termination of Norwegian leases during the quarter. We sold the remainder of our Norwegian shares during the first quarter, so we're now fully out of that position.

Our total revenues for the fourth quarter were $1,032 million compared to $1,257 million for the fourth quarter of 2019. Total revenues for the full year were $4,494 million, down 9% from $4,937 million for the full year of 2019. Basic lease rents were lower in the fourth quarter due to lease restructurings, aircraft transitions, and the impact of airline bankruptcies. This includes the impact of cash accounting, which, as I mentioned, was $117 million for the quarter. Maintenance rents were $110 million in the fourth quarter, which was a decrease from $133 million in 2019, primarily due to lower end of lease compensation recognized during the quarter. In terms of aircraft sales during the fourth quarter, we sold 12 of our owned aircraft for a total of $97 million.

The average age of the aircraft we sold was 21 years old, and our net gain on sales for the quarter was $14 million. For the full year, we sold 46 aircraft for a total of $613 million and generated gains on sale of $90 million. Both were lower than 2019 due to the lower volume of sales in 2020. Other income was $22 million for the fourth quarter, mainly due to higher interest income. Despite the increase in travel restrictions in the fourth quarter, we saw another significant increase in our cash collections, as Gus has mentioned. Our operating cash flow for the quarter was $653 million, a 21% increase in the third quarter, and more than double that of Q2. This took operating cash flow for the full year of 2020 to over $2.1 billion.

The vast majority of our customers continue to pay us every month, and during the fourth quarter, we saw a meaningful reduction in new deferral requests. Our deferral balance was $490 million as of December 31st, which was a $5 million increase over September 30th. Trade receivables decreased by $19 million during the quarter, so on an overall basis, including both accounts receivable and deferrals, we had a net decrease of around $15 million. Our cash collection rate continued to improve and was 96% for the fourth quarter, with no adjustment for deferrals. Turning to the next slide, other expenses, we had asset impairments of $27 million in the fourth quarter, which related to lease terminations and asset sales and were partially offset by maintenance revenue.

As I mentioned last quarter, having completed our comprehensive full fleet impairment review in the third quarter, we do not expect any significant further impairments as we are comfortable with the cash flows and associated book values of our fleet. It is worth noting that the impairment analysis we carried out in the third quarter was done before any vaccine announcements came out, and we remained comfortable with the assumptions we made. Our SG&A expenses were around $64 million for the fourth quarter, which was about 10% lower than the fourth quarter of 2019. For the full year of 2020, our SG&A expenses were around $242 million, which was a 9% decrease from 2019. Our maintenance rights expense was $6 million for the fourth quarter, down from $25 million in 2019, and this was primarily driven by lower maintenance rights asset balance and the level of maintenance activity during the quarter.

Other leasing costs were $85 million for the quarter, an increase from $62 million in 2019, primarily due to higher expenses related to lease terminations. As a result of all the actions we've taken to date and the improvement in our cash flows, we ended the year with a very healthy liquidity position. Our total sources of liquidity were $9.1 billion, resulting in a next 12 months' sources to uses ratio of 2.3 times, which was well above our target of 1.5x. Our excess cash coverage was also high at $5.2 billion. We continue to maintain a very strong balance sheet. Our leverage ratio is currently 2.6 to 1, which was below our target ratio of 2.7 to 1, and is in line with where we began 2020.

Our secured debt percentage continues to remain low at 26% of total assets, and we currently have around $26 billion worth of unencumbered assets. In January, we raised $1 billion of five-year senior unsecured bonds with a coupon of 1.75%, the lowest coupon in this company's history. This reflects the prudent actions we've taken and will continue to take in managing our balance sheet. In closing, 2020 was the most challenging year in the history of aviation, and we've seen the impact of those challenges come through our results. Despite this, we ended the year with a strong balance sheet, with a debt to equity ratio that's the same as where we began the year, with a liquidity position that is higher than where we began the year, and with funding costs that are lower than where we began the year.

We also took a number of important proactive steps during 2020 to position the company for the future. While we will still see some ongoing impact of COVID-19 over the next few quarters, we enter 2021 well-positioned to capitalize on future opportunities as the recovery continues. With that, operator, you can open up the call for Q&A.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you wish to queue for a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. Again, that is star one to enter the queue for questions. We will now take our first question from Jamie Baker of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Jamie Baker (Managing Director, Boston Head of Investments, and Advice)

Hey, good afternoon, everybody. Mark and I were wondering, a year ago, operating cash flow was projected at $3.1 billion. Today, it's $2.4 billion, so call that a decline of about a third. You know, naturally, some of that's going to be due to deliveries being pushed off and rent deferrals and such. Besides the variance in CapEx, the $2.4 billion guide today is up only about 13% from the $2.1 billion you realized in 2020. I guess the question is, how much of 2021 rent recapture is being offset by lost rent to bankruptcy and lower lease rates? Basically, the improvement from $2.1 billion to $2.4 billion, what are the building blocks of that? Positives obviously include deferrals being paid back. Negatives include, you know, the bankruptcy, lower leases, the other stuff that you mentioned. Any way to address that?

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

Yeah, sure, Jamie. So I think that the building blocks of that are, one, you know, we've got a number of airlines that are still in restructuring, and those will come back online during the course of the year. So we would expect them to start contributing operating cash flow during the year. So that will build up over time. And then you're right, we'll see some repayment of deferrals during the year. And then as we place aircraft that are currently AOG, right, that will build up as well. I mean, I think that, you know, as we look at the $2.4 billion, we'd say that's a conservative estimate on our part because we assume that while the recovery will continue, that, you know, it may not be a smooth line, right, and we'll see some fits and starts in that.

That's really how we projected that. I mean, as you look at, in general, winter tends to be weaker, as you know, right? We assume that just given some of the lockdowns that you still see in Europe and elsewhere, that, you know, maybe, I'd say we were just conservative in our projection.

Jamie Baker (Managing Director, Boston Head of Investments, and Advice)

Okay. As a follow-up, any thoughts as to $53 million write-downs on seven-year-old A330s and why that's not a risk for AerCap?

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

Yeah. Jamie, first of all, we've been very clear about the portfolio strategy for many, many years. At all costs, avoid end-of-line airplanes. They're very tempting because they give you a big lease rental for a short period of time. If you've been buying A330s or 777s in the last five or six years, you're going to get what's coming to you because those airplanes are going to be replaced. You won't get 25 years out of them. You have seen that we have been avoiding that very deliberately for a decade. You know, it's what we've been warning you about. You can avoid near-term impairments while the airplanes are on lease, but once they come off lease, reality bites.

Jamie Baker (Managing Director, Boston Head of Investments, and Advice)

That's excellent. Thank you, Gus. I appreciate it.

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

Yeah.

Jamie Baker (Managing Director, Boston Head of Investments, and Advice)

Yeah, go ahead. Sorry.

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

If you look at our own book, you'll see that we have, I believe it's in the appendix there, we have 3% of our fleet in A330s, which are all very old, and 4% of 777s, which are all very old and declining rapidly. We've been very clear about that strategy for many years.

Jamie Baker (Managing Director, Boston Head of Investments, and Advice)

That's perfect. Thanks for that color, Gus. Really do appreciate it. Just wanted to clear that issue up because, you know, it has percolated in the last couple of days. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

We'll take our next question from Ross Harvey of Davy. Please go ahead.

Ross Harvey (Equity Research Analyst)

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Gus, despite the P&L difficulties in 2020, it's obviously quite pleasing to see the leverage still below target. I'm just wondering, as excess capital begins to arise, can you discuss the different capital deployment opportunities and how buybacks or delevering would compare to the lease-back opportunities you mentioned?

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

Sure. Of course, Ross. And look, clearly the focus in 2020 was to make sure we delevered the balance sheet, made sure it was rock solid. The benefits of that manifested themselves in the 1.75% unsecured coupon we achieved, quite recently. But that had to be done at that time. Now, you're correct. As we go forward, the balance sheet continues to delever. And I do believe that the suite of opportunities that are available to the company will be there for quite some period of time because structurally, we just see the demand for aircraft leasing increasing. Airlines will have to be asset-lighter companies going forward. They're already levered up coming out of the pandemic. I can't see them adding more. And I think from our perspective, we are analyzing all the time, all the opportunities that are available to us, in relation to distribution of capital.

Ross Harvey (Equity Research Analyst)

That makes sense. As a follow-up, can I ask about the, you mentioned the positive marketing campaigns in the presentation and it sounds as though a lot of that momentum's carried into Q1. Can you just share thoughts on where that demand is coming from, maybe the economics or what aircraft are being favored? Any sort of insights would be helpful. Thanks.

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

Certainly. Look, of course, you're not getting the same lease rentals as you would have got a couple of years ago. The most important thing in the recovery of any market is liquidity. The worst thing that can happen is a frozen market. Liquidity is coming back. During the quarter, we delivered a couple of 787s that we'd taken out of Norwegian. We sold a 787 since the quarter end, a Dash 8. We sold a 330. We are leasing 320 737s. You know, the activity is coming out of Europe and North America, I would say, and elsewhere. It's been fairly across the board. There's been a lot of extensions too with customers. I think, again, it's that airlines are looking to the future and saying they see the vaccine. Those that are well-run, they see that it's coming.

Yes, okay, it's going to be a choppy couple of quarters. There is demand out there, and they can see that. You know, their view is, "Look, if I can, if I can lock in some attractive deals, fine. I'm going to go and do it." You know, I presume we're probably leasing more airplanes than anyone in the world. That's our business, and we're the biggest at it.

Ross Harvey (Equity Research Analyst)

Very helpful. Thanks, Gus.

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

Pleasure.

Operator (participant)

We'll take our next question from Helane Becker of Cowen. Please go ahead.

Helane Becker (Managing Director and Senior Advisor)

Thanks very much. Hi, everybody, and thank you very much for your time this morning. I just had a question about the shift to leasing. Can you make the argument that an airline should never own an aircraft and should just always lease aircraft?

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

I don't know. Like, there were very successful business models, Helene, on owning nothing, which I would point to say Wizz Air in Europe owns pretty much nothing. I would point to IndiGo in India, which owns pretty much nothing. At the other side, you have Southwest, which has moved from complete ownership to starting to lease more. I would say that from an airline's perspective, owning the majority of their fleet is the wrong way to go. Shareholders should push back on it and say, "Is this the best you can do with our funds? Sit on money in metal for 20 years. You don't know the airplane market. You don't trade airplanes. You're putting our equity at risk. Invest in the business or give us back the cash.

We don't want to see you making big bets on airplanes. You see, the difference for an airline is they have to order a large number of aircraft to get attractive pricing that will deliver four, five, six years into the future. The huge risk is that the airline, most airlines are in their domestic markets. I mean, take Ryanair. Ryanair, look at Europe. That's their market. Great. They bought airplanes for the next six years. The problem for Ryanair is that's their market. That's their only market. They're not going to be able to go to North America. They're not going to Australia. They're not going to Thailand. If they get over their skis on the order book, yes, okay, they're financially strong enough to do it. My point is it really ties their hands.

What happens to these airlines so often then when they have a problem, which you do not hear about, is they go back to Boeing and Airbus and bend a knee and say, "Please help us." Boeing and Airbus say, "Well, okay, you could defer your deliveries, but you are going to pay us an extra $2 million a year in escalation for the pleasure." There is no free lunch with them. I think with airlines, too often they get fixated with Boeing and Airbus on a large order, and they do not realize the risks that that entails. Now, Ryanair is one of the best-run airlines in the world, so they would be better at it than the vast majority. The vast majority, I believe, take outsized risk for the potential benefit that is coming at them.

Yeah, okay, they could argue, "Well, if I lease the airplane, I have to pay a little bit more." Sure. No airline ever went out of business for having too few airplanes. Plenty of them go out of business for having too many.

Helane Becker (Managing Director and Senior Advisor)

Yeah. Exactly. Thank you for that. Just as a follow-up, you mentioned an inflection point is coming. I'm wondering if you've thought about when that might be, especially in Europe where you mentioned the comments about Boris Johnson and easyJet and TUI and so on. I saw that too, which I guess supposes May, mid-May. I mean, do you think that the summer will be rescued, or do you think vaccine rollout in Europe is still, you know, fall or late fall or early winter away?

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

I think in Europe and India, I'll get the vaccine rollout will be happening. I think they'll get that done. I think what the most important thing is the vaccine, travel agreements. Do you need a passport? That is being discussed by the European Commission at the moment. The idea is that that would apply ideally to all the European Union and to the U.K. they're talking about as well. I would say the sooner that gets up will dictate whether or not there is a good summer for the European airlines that can start in June or an average summer that's or less than average summer that is August, September, October before they get anything in the course. You are back to school September, October.

Like we said at the start, that's why we said at the start, Helane, look, the recovery is coming driven by the vaccines. There could be a couple of quarters of choppiness depending on how the major markets implement the travel on the back of having vaccines, vaccines distributed. You know, on the long-haul market, the biggest one of all by far is the North Atlantic market. That's the most important long-haul market in the world. You know, hopefully we'll continue to see what has been fairly glacial progress so far between the Europeans and the Americans. Hopefully that will start to pick up now as well as there's greater visibility on the rollout of the vaccines.

Helane Becker (Managing Director and Senior Advisor)

Gotcha. Okay. Thanks for your help. I appreciate your answers. Thank you.

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

You're very welcome.

Operator (participant)

We'll take our next question from Moshe Orenbuch of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Moshe Orenbuch (Managing Director)

Great. Thanks. You know, Gus, you talked a little bit about kind of the combination of, you know, growth opportunities and helpful solutions for airlines. I guess I was hoping you could put a little more, you know, more specifics around that. As you look out now, do you see like this coming in the form of transactions for, you know, half a dozen planes at a time? Is there still potential for kind of larger deals, you know, like you've done in the past? How do you think about that evolving over the next few quarters?

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

I would think, Moshe, it's more than over the next few quarters because what we can see is that the airlines now are coming out of 2020, the first quarter, of course, which has been the most difficult in their history. They're trying to say, "Okay, I need to simplify all aspects of my business. I need to become a more nimble business than I've been before." Flag carriers and many other airlines are just huge employers, very stuck in their ways, and this has shut them all to their core. Flexibility starts with the fleet. You have to have fleet flexibility. I think what you'll see is a simplification of fleets of major airlines, downsizing perhaps the number of shells, but very importantly, downsizing the different types of families of airplanes they have with the thrust towards the newer type airplanes.

And when I say the growth opportunity, it may not be growing an overall number of shells, but they'll be growing within certain families of shells. I think that will happen. In terms of how that will manifest itself and the size of the opportunity that faces us, I think it'll be. I think it's something that will be structurally there for another year or two. Just think about somebody walking into a board of an airline anytime in 2021 and saying, "I want to buy 100 airplanes from Boeing and Airbus delivering in the next five years." I just can't see any airline board saying, "That sounds like a great idea." It would be very rare for them to do that because of the leverage they put on their balance sheets. There are exceptions.

There are airlines that are exceptions that had an extraordinarily strong position coming into the pandemic and were able to absorb the additional leverage, without threatening themselves. But I do think that what we will see is a greater reliance on lesser order books and on the sale-leaseback channel going forward.

Moshe Orenbuch (Managing Director)

Okay. Thanks. And as a follow-up, Pete, you know, given what you see now and, and recognizing, you know, we're two-thirds of the way through the first quarter, the progress that you saw in the kind of net deferral balance, I mean, do you think that continues into 2021? You know, how that plays out, maybe, you know, depending on, on, you know, if you could kind of frame it relative to, you know, the summer, the summer rebound.

Pete Juhas (CFO)

Sure.

Moshe Orenbuch (Managing Director)

Potential for a summer rebound or not, I guess. Thanks.

Pete Juhas (CFO)

I think that the deferral balance, as I said, it was $490 million at the end of December. And I expect that we should continue to see that come down, right? That will come down over the course of the year. I don't expect it to come down, you know, all at once. But I think, you know, gradually over the course of the year, we'll see that come down. There will still be some balance, at the end of this year. But I think we should see steady progress in that. Because remember, these deferral agreements, you know, these are agreements that we've reached with the airlines. And so the airlines are honoring those and repaying according to those schedules.

Based on those schedules, even if traffic recovery picks up faster, I would still expect them to be paying on those schedules. I wouldn't expect them to accelerate it. We should see a gradual reduction in it during the course of the year.

Moshe Orenbuch (Managing Director)

Great. Thanks very much.

Pete Juhas (CFO)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

We'll take our next question from Andrew Lobbenberg of HSBC. Please go ahead.

Andrew Lobbenberg (European Equity Research Sector Head Transport)

Oh, hi there. Can I ask about what Gus was saying in previous quarters about how you're expecting tourist capital to disappear from the sector? Is it going to happen? Or are there manifest attractions of the sector that you laid out in your presentation? You know, is there the risk that they're going to tempt in more new entrants? So we're going to get exit, we're going to get M&A. How's the structure of the sector going to play out from here, please?

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

As a glib comment, I'm dying to see tourists globally to start with. But to be more serious, when I referenced the tourist capital that had entered aircraft leasing over the last few years, it had done so without the benefits of a platform. It had done so in the belief that this was a spread business. And it had done so in the belief, because of the spread business, that the credit risk of a startup in India carried the same credit risk as U.S. Treasuries. That has proven not to be the case. And it has hurt those more who came into the sector looking for that quick pickup in yield but without willing to build a global platform or an infrastructure that was suitable to the level of risk they were taking on.

This is a difficult business to build a platform that's subpar for a subscale fleet. It doesn't justify it. So for example, if you have 30, 40, 50 airplanes, you're at a level of risk where you do need to have some level of global coverage in order to manage that portfolio. But whether a portfolio of that size can make it an economic investment is, I don't believe, the case. So what I do think we will see is those subscale players realize that, "Look, this isn't the business for me. I did like the business.

Maybe a better way to get in is on a managed fleet basis if I want to be in it," but being outright bidders against experts in the industry with global infrastructure, I think many will have said, "That hasn't worked," and in that regard is what I mean of the tourist capital leaving, and of course, you know, given the world that we're in today, because of COVID, there may be other opportunities in other sectors, be it real estate or whatever, for them to invest into.

Andrew Lobbenberg (European Equity Research Sector Head Transport)

Okay. Thanks. And then, as a follow-up, I guess, as we see sort of progress towards maybe removing the tariffs on aircraft between the E.U. and the U.S. to fight with Boeing and Airbus, does that make any difference to you guys? Or did you manage to navigate your way through it so the tariffs were irrelevant?

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

We can't comment on specifics between ourselves and Boeing and Airbus and the different markets. They're confidential. But what I can say is that it is a necessity for both governments. The biggest exporter in the United States is the Boeing Company. Europe is an enormous market. There are tens and tens of thousands of U.S. high-tech manufacturing jobs dependent on us. It has to get resolved. There are no winners out of this. And the same is true the other way around. And that Airbus is one of the biggest exporters in Europe. And the U.S. is a huge market for it. And there are tens of thousands of jobs. And I know the people who run both of these businesses. I know that that's what they want to see. And the world is a better place for us when we have competition.

The American consumer does not benefit from their airline not having a choice other than Boeing, and the European consumer does not benefit from the European, from the only choice for their airlines being Airbus equipment. So I would be hopeful that this will get resolved. There are no winners on the manufacturing side or the consumer or the average Joe, paying his taxes. It's just degrees of loss.

Andrew Lobbenberg (European Equity Research Sector Head Transport)

But you're optimistic we get there?

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

I think they will, particularly COVID when, you know, if you're realistic about Boeing. I don't see the Chinese market. Last night, they didn't approve the MAX. That's another big market shot. I think to try and shoot the European market too would be naive in the extreme.

Andrew Lobbenberg (European Equity Research Sector Head Transport)

Fair enough. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

We will take our next question from Catherine O'Brien of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Catherine O’Brien (VP)

Hi there. Thanks for the time. A slightly different take on the competitive environment question. You know, with the seemingly significant opportunity to deploy capital into the sale lease-back market, I was just hoping to hear an update on the competitive landscape there. I know we were already seeing some participants pull back before COVID. For a period last year, some of the debt markets certain lessors used to finance their growth were not open. How do you see the competitive set that actually has available dry powder to execute on the sale lease-back deals available in the market today, versus what that competitive sale lease-back market looked like pre-COVID? Thanks.

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

Catherine, as I said, I do not believe that you will have as many people chasing it as you did pre-COVID, because there were, the aforementioned tourists were present. Now, what I do believe going forward is that until we see the OEMs ramp up the deliveries, the opportunity in the sale lease-back market is still reasonably limited. You have to remember, Boeing are not really delivering any airplanes at the moment. And Airbus will struggle to deliver to their targets for this year as well. I just do not see that. It will be something that will be with us, for, I think, several years into the future.

Catherine O’Brien (VP)

Okay. Understood. Maybe more of a modeling one for my second question. Any view on what 2021 CapEx will be this year? Are you still thinking $1.8 billion is the right number? If so, at this point, do you think there's upside or downside risk that due to either OEM delivery risk or incremental sale lease-back opportunities respectively? Thanks for the time.

Pete Juhas (CFO)

For 2021, I think cash CapEx, Catie, will be around $1.5 billion. Total CapEx, so if you include, you know, the delivery at delivery, what will it be? $2.1 billion. That includes the use of PDPs that we already have on the balance sheet. I think that, you know, of that $1.5 billion, could some of that slide? I think there's a possibility, more likely than not, that that slides. For now, that's our best estimate as to what it will be. Catie, we may pick up some other stuff along the way as well in terms of sale lease-backs, etc.

Catherine O’Brien (VP)

Understood.

Pete Juhas (CFO)

That will be material.

Catherine O’Brien (VP)

Understood. You said it will be material or it won't be material? Sorry.

Pete Juhas (CFO)

No, it won't be. It won't be.

Catherine O’Brien (VP)

Understood. Thank you very much.

Pete Juhas (CFO)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

We'll take our next question from Ron Epstein of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Ron Epstein (Senior Equity Analyst)

Hey, good morning. Good afternoon. Gus, how are you feeling about the 787s you're supposed to get this year? When do you think we'll start to see some of those things flow out of South Carolina? Are you expecting to get all six?

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

That'll be dependent, now, Ron, obviously, on how Boeing get on, with the repairs and with the FAA. All of our airplanes are leased. Look, you know, the 787-9 has proven itself to be an excellent airplane. And they're the only ones we have on order. We don't have -10s or -8s. Look, I do think Boeing will fix those issues. They'll get them resolved. It's an extraordinarily difficult time for the company. I do believe in them and that they'll resolve these issues. They have tremendous capability. It's an extremely difficult time. Of the six, it's hard to say. That's what we just referenced a few minutes ago. Could one or two of them slide a bit? I'm sure they could. Could they more, you know, will they all slide some period of time into further than the current delivery date?

I expect that will be the case. Then we'll negotiate with Boeing what to do next. It's a difficult time ahead of them. I'm sure they'll get through it. In summary, I would say that those 787s could slide a bit to the right.

Ron Epstein (Senior Equity Analyst)

Yeah. If I can, maybe a follow-on. On a previous call, you'd mentioned that, you know, with fuel prices where they are and the cost reduction programs at the airlines, that you expected that the airlines could cover their cash operating cost at around 60% of 2019 air traffic levels. Now, fuel prices have gone up. If you were to, you know, rejigger that equation with fuel prices where they are now, how much of 2019 traffic do you think we need to cover the cash operating costs at the airlines?

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

I still think we'd be in the mid-60s there, Ron, as well. You know, that comment I made was in reference to last year. You know, I think we can see yields getting a little bit better out there as well. I would still say we'd be in the mid-60s or so. To be fair, you know, fuel prices.

I suppose prices are kind of reflective of a more optimistic outlook in the global economy.

Ron Epstein (Senior Equity Analyst)

Got it. Got it. If I can, just squeak in one more follow-on. China Eastern placed a firm order for C919s. What do you think about the 919 as a platform? Would you guys ever want to finance those?

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

Look, I think, Ron, the C919 is the first important step for Chinese aviation to compete someday with Boeing and Airbus. It has to be done. You have to start somewhere. It was the same for both of the two, Boeing and Airbus, that they had to start somewhere. It obviously needs a domestic market to seed itself, to trial itself. I think it is likely that over the next 40 years or so, we might see a family of airplanes that may compete with Boeing and Airbus. That's what it takes. You know, in the late 1980s, the A320 was launched. That was after many, many years of effort from the Europeans to create Airbus. I think there's a long road ahead before we see a family of airplanes coming out of China. I've no doubt they'll get there.

This is a very important milestone on that trip.

Great. Thank you so much.

Operator (participant)

We'll take our next question from Koosh Patel of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Koosh Patel (Airlines and Aircraft Lessors Equity Research)

Hey, good morning, guys. I wanted to talk about your order book and how wide bodies looked into the portfolio over the longer term. We've spent some time, I guess, talking about the shift from owning to leasing. And when I look at your current order book, it's primarily weighted towards the narrow bodies. But just wanted to get a sense of, you know, where in the next cycle you kind of see the wide bodies coming back into favor. Just seems like there's, you know, a large number of wide bodies parked in 2020. And most of the lessor capital seems to be focused on investing in the narrow body space. Just wanted to see if there comes a point where the economics begin to look attractive and, you know, maybe what are some of the factors that would cause you to look to place an order.

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

Certainly. I mean, we obviously are a very big lessor with a lot of wide bodies now. When you look at our order book, there's only 23 wide bodies left out of 286 aircraft. That's because just the 787 program, which has been the backbone of our wide body order book, started delivering much sooner. You had delays with the A320neo, delays with the 737 MAX. Otherwise, a lot more of these airplanes would have delivered into our portfolio. Look, we're a big believer in the wide body market. For sure, it's been hit, of course, particularly by the lack of international long-haul travel. That will come back. For sure, the wide body market will come back. We would be very confident in the 787-9 in particular. That'd be the most popular.

On the Airbus side, the best seller they have is the A350-900. They'd be the two airplanes, I think. The very large aircraft, the 777s, the 777Xs, the A380s, may take a little bit longer for those assets to find a sweet spot. I think we'll be surprised. You know, people will want to go on long-haul holidays, trips of a lifetime. I think we're going to see that. Yeah, I definitely think we're big believers in the wide body market when you're in the right ones.

Koosh Patel (Airlines and Aircraft Lessors Equity Research)

Okay. Can you just give us an update on where you're at on remarketing the aircraft coming out of Norwegian, or whether you've completed all of those?

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

Sure. We've leased two 787s already and delivered those two. Then we've signed LOIs for several more. They'll have to be converted into lease contracts. That's where we stand on those aircraft. Again, look, the 787s are assets that have a long-term future ahead of them, and we will lease those assets.

Koosh Patel (Airlines and Aircraft Lessors Equity Research)

Okay. Thanks a lot for the call, for the time, guys.

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

You're very welcome.

Operator (participant)

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand the call back to our hosts for any additional or closing remarks.

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

Thank you all very much for your time today. We look forward to talking to you in three months. You know, maybe God willing, we might actually see some of you in person before that happens. Thanks very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. That now concludes the call. Thank you for your participation.

Aengus Kelly (CEO)

Yeah.

Operator (participant)

You may now disconnect.