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    C3.ai (AI)

    AI Q4 2025: FY26 Guidance Broad Amid Geopolitical Risks, Growth Intact

    Reported on Jun 23, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$23.02Last close (May 28, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$26.59Open (May 29, 2025)
    Price Change
    $3.57(+15.51%)
    • Robust Partner Ecosystem Activation: Management emphasized leveraging tens of thousands of Azure sales reps through a cascading engagement model, which enhances demo capability and accelerates customer adoption. This deep partner integration supports rapid market penetration and tailwinds for revenue growth.
    • Strengthened Strategic Relationships: The expanded and renewed Baker Hughes partnership—now in its fifth expansion—demonstrates a solid long-term collaboration that validates C3 AI's value proposition in critical sectors and stabilizes revenue streams.
    • Proactive Management of Market Risks: During the Q&A, leadership candidly addressed geopolitical and market risks while highlighting rigorous relationship management with key industry leaders, underlining a disciplined approach to sustaining growth even in volatile environments.
    • Execution Risk with Partner Network: The call highlighted the challenge of effectively activating tens of thousands of Azure (and other cloud) sales reps to drive revenue, which could lead to underperformance if the alignment between C3 AI and its partners doesn’t materialize as expected.
    • Geopolitical Uncertainty and Market Risks: During the Q&A, executives acknowledged risks such as geopolitical instability and the potential for government shutdowns, which could adversely affect revenue and deal execution.
    • Revenue Guidance Volatility: The broader revenue guidance range was partly constructed to accommodate unanticipated risks, implying that uncertainties in macroeconomic and political environments might result in lower-than-expected financial performance.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    26% increase (from $86.59M to $108.77M)

    Total Revenue surged by 26% YoY, driven by a mix of modest subscription revenue growth and an exceptional increase in professional services revenue, indicating a shift toward higher-margin service offerings compared to the previous period.

    Subscription Revenue

    9% increase (from $79.9M to $87.3M)

    Subscription Revenue experienced a 9% YoY uplift, reflecting stable recurring revenue streams bolstered by ongoing customer acquisition and retention strategies—a steady expansion from previous performance levels.

    Professional Services Revenue

    Over 220% increase (from $6.69M to $21.36M)

    Professional Services Revenue jumped over 220% YoY, driven by a significant increase in consulting, implementation, and training services, building on a lower base in the prior period and marking a strategic pivot in service focus.

    North America Revenue

    24% increase (from $78.65M to $97.46M)

    North America revenue grew by 24% YoY, supported by robust subscription performance and effective regional strategies that built upon previously strong market fundamentals.

    EMEA Revenue

    62% increase (from $6.6M to $10.69M)

    EMEA revenue surged nearly 62% YoY, reflecting a rapid expansion in market penetration and customer engagement in the region, even though the absolute revenue remains smaller relative to North America.

    Net Loss

    9% increase (from $72.93M to $79.70M)

    The net loss worsened by roughly 9% YoY despite strong revenue growth, indicating that rising costs or investments in growth initiatives have outpaced revenue gains compared to the previous period.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Revenue Guidance

    Q1 FY 2026

    no prior guidance

    $100 million to $109 million

    no prior guidance

    Non-GAAP Loss from Operations

    Q1 FY 2026

    no prior guidance

    $23.5 million to $33.5 million

    no prior guidance

    Revenue Guidance

    FY 2026

    no prior guidance

    $447.5 million to $484.5 million

    no prior guidance

    Non-GAAP Loss from Operations

    FY 2026

    no prior guidance

    $65 million to $100 million

    no prior guidance

    Profitability Expectations

    FY 2026

    no prior guidance

    Expected to cross into non‐GAAP profitability in H2 FY 2027; expected to be free cash flow positive in Q4 FY 2026 and thereafter

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Revenue
    Q4 2025
    $103.6M to $113.6M
    $108.723M
    Met
    Revenue
    FY 2025
    $383.9M to $393.9M
    $389.056M
    Met
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Strategic partnerships

    Across Q1–Q3, partnerships with Microsoft, AWS, Google Cloud, Baker Hughes, and new alliances (e.g., with McKinsey QuantumBlack and PwC) were consistently highlighted. These calls emphasized broad ecosystem activation, conversion of partnerships into agreements, and significant investments to scale sales and co‐sell motions.

    In Q4, the emphasis continued with detailed updates on Microsoft’s global sales engagement and a major renewal and expansion of the Baker Hughes partnership – the fifth expansion – alongside impressive numbers such as 28 new agreements and robust partner-supported revenue figures.

    Consistent expansion and deeper integration with partners, with enhanced ecosystem metrics and significant renewals reinforcing its strategic importance.

    Revenue conversion effectiveness

    Q1 reported a 70% pilot-to-production conversion rate and detailed pilot values and durations; Q2 and Q3 discussed pilot counts (e.g., 36 pilots and 50 pilots in quarterly mentions) and improvements in sales cycles through partnerships while acknowledging guidance volatility due to conversion challenges.

    Q4 detailed 36 new initial production deployments and cumulative pilot conversion metrics (346 signed; 263 active) while noting moderation in gross margins and a broader revenue guidance range due to inherent uncertainties.

    Steady focus with evolving conversion dynamics; while pilot conversions continue to be a priority, guidance remains volatile reflecting current market uncertainties.

    Financial modeling complexity

    In Q1 and Q2, executives delved into how the complexity of the AI computing world—with 150+ unique solutions and diverse accounting treatments under ASC 606—makes conventional modeling nearly impossible, emphasizing the “order of 100 factorial” challenge and detailed revenue recognition nuances.

    Q4 did not mention financial modeling complexity or revenue recognition challenges at all [no citation].

    No longer emphasized in Q4, suggesting that the focus may have shifted as internal processes mature or as management deems it less critical to highlight.

    Geopolitical and market risk management

    Q3 briefly noted that guidance was predicated on geopolitical stability, with warnings about government shutdowns and trade risks, while Q1 and Q2 largely omitted extensive discussion on these external risks.

    Q4 featured a stronger focus on geopolitical and market risks—with explicit references to geopolitical uncertainties, U.S. government shutdowns, budget risks, and kinetic risks in Europe—and a broader revenue guidance range as a result.

    An emerging and more articulated risk factor in Q4, with management increasing emphasis on external risks compared to earlier periods.

    Baker Hughes partnership dynamics

    Q2 discussed the diminishing revenue share from Baker Hughes, the nearing expiration of an exclusive marketing agreement, and the uncertain prospects of renewal; Q3 offered little detail on Baker Hughes specifically, noting non-Baker Hughes revenue growth instead.

    Q4 reported a clear renewal and expansion of the Baker Hughes partnership through 2028, explicitly dismissing prior analyst concerns and highlighting the strategic importance of the collaboration.

    Renewal uncertainty resolved; partnership dynamics have strengthened even as its relative revenue share continues to decline compared to the transformative Microsoft deal.

    Delayed free cash flow positivity

    Q1–Q3 consistently noted that while the company was free cash flow negative in early quarters due to heavy investments (in sales, R&D, partner ecosystems, and a higher mix of pilot projects), there was an expectation to reach positivity in Q4, with caution noted about ongoing margin pressures.

    Q4 reported achieving positive free cash flow ($10.3 million), albeit at a lower level than the previous year’s quarter, while still emphasizing the short-term pressures from ongoing significant investments.

    Improvement in free cash flow performance with moderated cash burn; investments continue to drive margin pressure but progress toward long-term positivity is evident.

    Government AI spending

    Q1 detailed a robust federal footprint with over 30% of quarterly bookings from federal agencies and significant state/local growth, Q2 noted accelerating AI adoption in government at forums such as the Reagan Defense Forum, and Q3 highlighted new agreements with multiple federal agencies and generative AI pilots.

    Q4 expanded on federal contracting by highlighting major wins such as a U.S. Air Force contract with a $450 million ceiling, extension of the PLUTO platform with the Defense Logistics Agency, and new collaborations in the defense and intelligence sectors.

    Consistent growth and deepening penetration in government sectors, with an increasingly robust and diversified federal contracting portfolio in Q4.

    Professional services and consulting

    Q1 reported professional services at 16% of revenue with strong high margins (over 90%); Q2 and Q3 similarly reported revenue in the 13–14% range from consulting, PES, and other service fees, with consistent upticks in service adoption.

    In Q4, professional services revenue increased to $21.4 million (20% of total revenue) with impressive contributions from PES and an overall combined subscription/PES revenue growth of 22% year-over-year, maintaining high gross margins.

    Positive revenue trajectory with an increasing contribution from professional services, reinforcing its role as a high-margin, strategically important revenue stream.

    CEO health and leadership risk

    Q3 disclosed CEO Thomas Siebel’s health challenges (giant cell arteritis affecting vision) and adjustments such as appointing Jim Snabe as special assistant, while Q1 and Q2 did not mention any such concerns.

    Q4 noted that Siebel had recovered fully—with a light-hearted remark “Just when you thought it was safe, Pat, I'm back”—and resumed full engagement in leadership, effectively mitigating earlier health-related concerns.

    Previously raised leadership risks have been resolved in Q4, with the CEO returning to full capacity and diminishing prior concerns related to his health.

    1. Revenue Guidance
      Q: How was FY '26 guidance determined?
      A: Management explained that the broader guidance range reflects real geopolitical risks and market uncertainties, with revenue growth expected to outpace expenses, ensuring a steady climb toward profitability (citation ).

    2. Baker Hughes
      Q: What are the new Baker Hughes deal economics?
      A: Management noted that the economics remain under NDA but confirmed a significant expansion—a 3-year extension and the fifth expansion—highlighting a strong, deepened relationship (citation ).

    3. Partner Activation
      Q: How is the Azure rep network activated?
      A: They described leveraging about 100 of their salespeople to partner with 10 Azure reps each, targeting specific accounts to drive increased market reach (citation ).

    4. Executive Health
      Q: Any update on Tom’s health?
      A: Tom confirmed a minor setback from which he has recovered and is actively traveling, ensuring continued leadership and stability (citation ).

    Research analysts covering C3.ai.