Alico - Earnings Call - Q2 2025

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 headline: Revenue of $17.98M and diluted EPS of ($14.58), reflecting large non-cash charges tied to the citrus wind-down; Adjusted EBITDA turned positive to $12.7M on land gains and pricing tailwinds in citrus contracts. Revenue and EPS missed S&P consensus ($22.20M rev, ($0.36) EPS) materially, driven by accelerated depreciation and asset impairments; 1 estimate on each metric indicates low coverage depth (see Estimates Context) [Values retrieved from S&P Global]*.
• Strategic pivot execution advanced: last major citrus harvest completed in April; workforce reduced from ~200 to 25; leasing ~5,250 acres to third-party growers next season, and diversifying land usage (sod, mining, seasonal crops).
• Guidance expanded/raised: FY25 land sales outlook lifted to potentially >$50M (from ~$20M); introduced FY25 targets of ~$20M Adjusted EBITDA, ~$25M year-end cash, and ~$60M net debt; ample liquidity with ~$88.5M revolver availability and no significant maturities until 2029.
• Real estate catalyst building: Corkscrew Grove Villages entitlement application filed in March with construction possible in 2028/29 if approvals granted; management cites $650–$750M present value for current landholdings over time, with ~10% entitled in ~5 years.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Adjusted EBITDA swung positive to $12.7M vs ($16.5M) YoY on land and equipment sale gains, despite lower production; “Alico now expects to generate approximately $20 million in Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal year 2025”.
• Strategic transformation progressing: “We completed our last major citrus harvest in April... negotiated agreements to lease another 5,250 acres... in discussions... clearing as many as 1,000 acres... in lieu of lease payments,” strengthening financial position.
• Land monetization outlook raised: “land sales could potentially exceed $50 million this year,” from ~$20M previously, supporting cash and deleveraging objectives.

What Went Wrong

• Significant GAAP loss: Net loss of ($111.4M) vs ($15.8M) YoY, driven by ~$119.3M accelerated depreciation on citrus trees and ~$25.0M impairment at one grove, partially offset by $15.8M gain on land/equipment sales and $26.9M tax benefit.
• Production headwinds: Pound solids down ~19% YoY for the quarter due to fruit drop from Hurricane Milton; total boxes harvested fell ~21% YoY despite price per pound solids improving under a Tropicana contract.
• G&A up YoY on transformation costs: higher legal fees, higher bonus accruals, and accelerated depreciation on administrative assets related to the transformation.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning and Welcome to Alico's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings call. Currently, all participants are in a listen-only mode. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, John Mills, Managing Partner at ICR.

John Mills (Managing Partner)

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Alico's Second Quarter fiscal year 2025 conference call. On the call today are John Kiernan, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Bradley Heine, Chief Financial Officer. By now, everyone should have access to the second quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings release, which went out yesterday at approximately 5:00 P.M. Eastern Time. If you've not had a chance to view the release, it's available in the investor relations portion of the company's website at alicoinc.com. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available on Alico's website as well. Before we begin, we'd like to remind everyone that the prepared remarks contain forward-looking statements. Such statements are subject to risk, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements.

Important factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include risks detailed in the company's quarterly report on Form 10-Q, annual reports on Form 10-K, current reports on Form 8-K, and any amendments thereto filed with the SEC and those mentioned in the earnings release. The company undertakes no obligation to subsequently update or revise the forward-looking statements made on today's call, except as required by law. During this call, the company may also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, including EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA, and net debt. For more details on these measures, please refer to the company's press release issued yesterday. It is my pleasure to turn the call over to the company's President and CEO, Mr. John Kiernan.

John Kiernan (President and CEO)

Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Alico's Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Call. I'd like to update you on the progress we've made in executing our strategic transformation since our announcement in January. At the end of April, we completed our fiscal year 2025 harvest, effectively concluding the majority of our capital investment in citrus operations. We will conduct a final harvest on the majority of the remaining 3,783 acres of operational citrus groves in fiscal year 2026. With this transition, we've reduced our workforce from approximately 200 to 25 employees, aligning our organizational structure with our transformed business model and significantly lowering operating expenses. On the land monetization front, we've completed the sale of 2,100 acres this year as part of our strategy to unlock the value of our substantial real estate portfolio.

We previously announced our expectation to realize approximately $20 million in land sales this fiscal year, based upon transactions that are under option agreements or have been negotiated and are expected to close this year. We are now raising our outlook to potentially have an additional $30 million of land sales or more this fiscal year, which would be a 150% increase from our prior guidance for fiscal year 2025 expected land sales. This acceleration in land sales could dramatically improve our annual Adjusted EBITDA and strengthen our ability to return capital to shareholders. We've also been actively engaged with agricultural operators throughout Florida to diversify our remaining agricultural activities. These discussions have focused on potential sod production, expanding sand mining activities, and leases to grow seasonal crops such as corn, sugarcane, and a variety of fruits and vegetables.

We've negotiated agreements to lease approximately 5,250 acres of different groves to third-party citrus growers next season. We are also in discussions or under contract with other vegetable and fruit growers who are clearing as many as 1,000 acres for us this season in lieu of lease payments. Our entitlement work for our identified near-term development properties is progressing under the guidance of Mitch Hutchcraft, our Executive Vice President of Land Management. Mitch brings nearly four decades of experience in entitlement work throughout Florida. His deep expertise in navigating the complex rezoning and land use approval processes in Florida is invaluable as we work to unlock the development potential of our properties. The Corkscrew Grove Villages development application we filed in March represents a significant milestone in our transformation.

This property, located in northwest Collier County at the strategic intersection of Collier, Lee, and Hendry counties, is being planned for two mixed-use master plan communities consisting of approximately 1,500 acres each. As envisioned, the project will not only provide future residents with ample opportunities to live, work, and play in a growing part of Collier County, but will also enhance public infrastructure, permanently protect thousands of acres of sensitive land, and enhance wetlands and water resources. The villages will provide significant economic benefit to the region, and improvements will come at no additional cost to Collier County taxpayers. We expect the east and west villages will each accommodate approximately 4,500 homes, 280,000 sq ft of commercial space, and approximately 70,000 sq ft of civic amenities, including village greens, trails, lakes, and preserves.

We are thoughtfully integrating residential, commercial, and civic spaces to create a place where people can live and work, all while enhancing convenience and providing shopping alternatives for residents of eastern Lee County, northern Collier, and southern Hendry. Our development application was submitted to Collier County for local approval for the first two villages. While the long-term vision for Corkscrew Grove Villages includes two villages, our current application with Collier County only seeks approval for the east village as the first step of a multi-phased project. This current process is anticipated to take approximately one year, with the final decision expected in 2026. Additionally, we have also submitted applications to the South Florida Water Management District and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for the entire Corkscrew Grove Villages property. Construction on east villages could begin in 2028 or 2029 if all approvals are granted.

As part of the company's long-term planning efforts, we took the proactive step in January 2025 to seek legislative approval from the Florida legislature to establish the Corkscrew Grove Stewardship District. Upon approval, the Corkscrew Grove Stewardship District will assist Alico in its efforts to effectively finance infrastructure, help restore and manage natural areas, and oversee the administration of the master plan communities and lands within the district. Importantly, our development approach incorporates strategies proposed by the Florida Wildlife Corridor and the Collier Rural Land Stewardship Area Program, with plans to enhance and preserve over 6,000 acres for wildlife corridors and regional connected habitat. This commitment to environmental stewardship reflects our long-standing role as responsible land managers. We are also advancing entitlement work for our Bonnet Lake, Saddle Bag Grove, and Plant Where properties, which collectively represent additional development opportunities across different Florida counties.

While the entitlement process involves many variables and stakeholders that can affect timing, we're taking a methodical approach to navigate these complexities. Collectively, these four near-term development properties, totaling approximately 5,500 acres, are estimated to be worth between $335 million and $380 million in present value dollars and could be realized within the next five years. This represents significant value for our shareholders from just 10% of our land holdings. To support our evolving business model, we recently amended our credit agreement, effective March 31, 2025. This amendment adjusts certain financial covenants and reduces crop and tree insurance coverage requirements, which is expected to result in cost savings while providing us with the flexibility needed to execute our transformation. We've also expanded our capital allocation strategy with the announcement of a $50 million share repurchase program.

As our cash balance increases through land sales and the establishment of diversified agricultural operations, we plan to maintain a balanced approach to capital deployment, including our quarterly dividend, opportunistic share repurchases, and strategic debt reduction. With these strategic initiatives well underway, I'm pleased with the progress we've made in positioning Alico for sustainable long-term growth. To provide more detail on our financial performance and the impact of these transformative steps on our Balance sheet, I will now turn it over to our CFO, Bradley Heine.

Bradley Heine (CFO)

Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone. The second fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2025. Revenue decreased 1% to $18 million, compared to $18.1 million for the prior year period. For the six months ended March 31, 2025, revenue decreased 9% to $34.9 million, compared to $32.1 million for the prior year period. For the three and six months ended March 31, 2025, Alico Citrus harvested approximately 4.7 million and 8.7 million pound solids of fruit, respectively, compared to 5.8 million and 10.4 million pound solids of fruit in the same periods of the prior fiscal year. As expected, harvest volumes in 2025 were lower compared to 2024, driven by the impact of Hurricane Milton, which hit Florida in October of 2024.

Alico's blended price per pound solids for the three and six months ended March 31, 2025, increased $0.70 and $0.85, respectively, as compared to the same period in the prior year, as a result of more favorable pricing in one of our contracts with Tropicana. As John said, we completed our last major citrus harvest in April and have thus concluded the majority of our capital investment in our citrus operations. Land management and other operations revenue for the three and six months ended March 31, 2025, increased 107% and 74%, respectively, as compared to the same periods in the prior year. The increase was primarily the result of an increase in rock and sand royalty income and sod sales, partially offset by lower farming, grazing, and hunting lease revenues due to the sale of the Alico Ranch.

Total operating expenses for the three and six months ended March 31, 2025, were $167.7 million and $192.8 million, respectively, as compared to $36.3 million and $64.5 million in the same periods in the prior year. The increase in operating expenses was driven by approximately $118 million of non-cash accelerated depreciation as a result of our strategic transformation and the decision to wind down our citrus operations, as well as the impairment of our young trees, which were not yet being depreciated, and certain other assets at one of our groves of $25 million. General and administrative expenses for the three and six months ended March 31, 2025, increased $1.1 million and $0.4 million, respectively, as compared to the same periods in the prior year. The increase was primarily due to the accelerated depreciation on certain administrative assets and higher legal fees related to the strategic transformation.

Other income expense net for the three months ended March 31, 2025, increased $15.3 million compared to the prior year period, driven by the sale of approximately 2,100 acres of land in the second quarter of 2025. Other income expense net for the six months ended March 31, 2025, was a gain of $14.2 million compared to $75 million in the prior year period, driven by the sale of the Alico Ranch to the state of Florida in the prior year. For the three months ended March 31, 2025, and 2024, the company reported a net loss attributable to Alico common shareholders of $111.4 million and $15.8 million, respectively.

The increase in our net loss was principally the result of approximately $119 million of accelerated depreciation, principally on citrus trees, due to the strategic transformation and the decision to wind down our citrus operations, as well as the impairment of our young trees, which were not yet being depreciated, and the long-lived assets at one of our groves of $25 million. Partially offsetting this, land and equipment sales resulted in a gain of $15.8 million in the current quarter. This was partially offset by a tax benefit of $26.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025. For the three months ended March 31, 2025, the company had a loss of $14.58 per diluted common share compared to a loss of $2.07 per diluted common share for the three months ended March 31, 2024.

For the three months ended March 31, 2025, EBITDA was a loss of $14.7 million compared to a loss of $16.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024. An Adjusted EBITDA was a gain of $12.7 million compared to a loss of $16.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024. Turning now to our balance sheet and liquidity. Cash and cash equivalents were $14.7 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $3.2 million at the end of fiscal year 2024. Net cash used in operating activities was $0.6 million for the six months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $19.7 million for the six months ending March 31, 2024. At quarter end, we had approximately $88.5 million of remaining availability on our line of credit, and there were no significant debt maturities until 2029.

Total debt was $89.6 million, and net debt was $74.9 million as of March 31, 2025, compared to $92.1 million and $89 million, respectively, at the end of fiscal year 2024. Now, I'd like to turn the call back to John to discuss our fiscal year 2025 outlook.

John Kiernan (President and CEO)

Thank you, Brad. Now, let me share our guidance for fiscal year 2025 and some concluding thoughts on our strategic direction. Our strategic transformation to become a diversified land company has already exceeded our fiscal 2025 year goals. At this time, we are forecasting that our cash balance at the end of this fiscal year will be approximately $25 million, and our net debt will be approximately $60 million, with only the required $2.5 million balance outstanding under our revolving line of credit. We expect to generate approximately $20 million in Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2025. These projections are supported by the previously announced estimate of $20 million of land sales and cash generated by the 2024-2025 citrus harvest. We are currently projecting that land sales could potentially exceed $50 million this year, which would increase our Adjusted EBITDA and cash and decrease our net debt projections.

We recognize that each pending transaction has its own challenges, just as all previous sales Alico has transacted over the past decade have experienced, and there is no certainty regarding timing until sales are closed. Looking ahead to the remainder of fiscal year 2025, we'll focus on completing the sale of our remaining identified lands, continuing entitlement work on our development properties, finalizing agreements with agricultural operators for our diversified farming operations, and further strengthening our balance sheet to support long-term value creation. When considering the full scope of our transformation, we believe the present value of our current land holdings could be worth approximately $650 million-$750 million, with roughly 75% valued for agricultural use and assuming about 10% entitled for development within the next five years. I'm confident that our strategic transformation positions Alico to deliver enhanced long-term returns for our shareholders.

By balancing the development of select high-value properties with diversified agricultural operations, we're creating a business model that leverages our core strengths while adapting to market opportunities. With that, we'll now open the line to questions from industry analysts. Margo?

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, if you'd like to ask a question, please press the star one on your telephone keypad. You may remove yourself from the queue at any time by pressing star two. Once again, that is star one to ask a question. We'll take our question from Gary Sweeney with ROTH Capital. Please go ahead.

Brandon Rogers (Equity Research Associate)

Hello, this is Brandon Rogers on for Gerry Sweeney. Thanks for taking my question.

John Kiernan (President and CEO)

Our pleasure. How are you doing, Brandon?

Brandon Rogers (Equity Research Associate)

Good, good. I just had a question on the $15.8 million land sale in the quarter. Could you just provide any additional color there? You said it was—I do not know exactly how many acres you said, but.

John Kiernan (President and CEO)

The 1,000 acres you're talking about? Land sales for the quarter.

Brandon Rogers (Equity Research Associate)

Yeah, the land sales for the quarter. The $15.8 million.

John Kiernan (President and CEO)

That was 2,100 acres.

Brandon Rogers (Equity Research Associate)

All right. What county was that located in?

John Kiernan (President and CEO)

Off the top of my head, I—oh, wait, Hendry County.

Brandon Rogers (Equity Research Associate)

All right. Thank you. For the initial $50 million in land sales for the current year, are you in current discussions with any other land sales? What gives you confidence in potentially achieving the $50 million aspiring target for the year?

John Kiernan (President and CEO)

We've negotiated an agreement to sell some acres. It's still going through a process, so it's going to go through diligence right now, and that's underway. The timing is a bit uncertain as the diligence process proceeds. The second part of your question is we're talking to several other parties about potential land sales, but nothing that's solid enough for us to report at this time.

Brandon Rogers (Equity Research Associate)

Okay. Thank you. Turning to Corkscrew, you said construction on the village could begin in 2028 or 2029 if all approvals are granted. What are some potential milestones we can watch for between now and the potential entitlement approvals?

John Kiernan (President and CEO)

I think the entitlement approvals themselves are kind of what the milestones would be. There'll be a lot of kind of individual meetings and revisions and resubmittals as we go. I think as you see the approvals at the local, state, and federal levels come through, you'll know where the milestones stand.

Brandon Rogers (Equity Research Associate)

Awesome. Thank you for taking my questions.

John Kiernan (President and CEO)

Thanks, Brandon.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, we have no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to our speakers for final remarks.

John Kiernan (President and CEO)

Thank you, Margo. Thank you to everyone for joining us today. We appreciate your continued support as we navigate this exciting strategic transformation, and we look forward to updating you on our further progress in the coming quarters. We'll see you in August.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This does conclude today's program. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.