Executive Summary

Q4 2024 was seasonally weak and materially impacted by a $19.5M inventory impairment tied to lower expected 2024–2025 harvest production; diluted EPS was -$2.38 vs $0.12 YoY, and revenue was $0.94M, up 37.5% YoY due to timing but down sharply QoQ as harvest shifted earlier in the year .
Management withdrew financial guidance, citing inability to forecast crop size and revenues amid post-Hurricane Ian recovery and October’s Hurricane Milton fruit drop; focus is on operating income potential, liquidity, and capital preservation .
Strategic positives: multi-year Tropicana pricing uplift (≈33–50% higher over the contract life), broad OTC trunk injections across 4.5M trees, and RLOC amended to $95M with maturity extended to 2034, providing ample liquidity (~$86.6M undrawn at year-end) .
Real estate monetization remained a key earnings driver: ~18,354 acres sold in FY24 for ~$86.2M, with $81.6M gain on sale; balance sheet strengthened (Debt/Assets 0.23x at 9/30/24) .
Stock reaction catalysts: near-term updates on fruit drop/recovery post-Milton, visibility on 2024–2025 harvest volumes, execution of higher Tropicana prices, and additional land transactions/entitlement progress .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- “Orange Purchase Agreement to sell oranges to Tropicana at prices that are approximately 33% to 50% higher, over the life of the contract, than the average price for all the citrus fruit sold to Tropicana last season” .
- Liquidity and balance sheet improved: RLOC amended to $95M capacity, maturity to May 1, 2034; ~$86.6M undrawn at 9/30/24; Debt/Assets 0.23x vs 0.30x FY23 .
- Land monetization momentum: ~18,354 acres sold for ~$86.2M gross proceeds, driving ~$81.6M gains and FY net income of $7.0M (EPS $0.91) despite operational pressures .
What Went Wrong
- Inventory impairments: $28.5M related to 2023–2024 harvest and $19.5M in Q4 for 2024–2025 harvest due to lower production/pounds solids; Q4 EBITDA -$18.95M .
- Operational recovery from Hurricane Ian slower than expected; continued fruit drop and lower pound solids per box despite OTC treatments; management cannot provide FY25 guidance .
- Hurricane Milton added near-term uncertainty via measurable fruit drop in northern groves (Polk/Hardee), though tree damage was minimal; potential insurance recovery uncertain .

Financial Results

Sequential and YoY Performance

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$18.113	$13.610	$0.935
Diluted EPS ($USD)	-$2.07	-$0.27	-$2.38
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	-$16.468	$1.343	-$18.953
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$1.287	-$3.390	$0.615
Net Income Margin (%)	-87.2% (calc. from )	-15.0% (calc. from )	-1938.0% (calc. from )

Metric	Q4 2023	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$0.680	$0.935
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$0.12	-$2.38
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$6.530	-$18.953
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	-$3.532	$0.615

Segment Breakdown (FY)

Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)	FY 2023	FY 2024
Alico Citrus	$38.145	$45.059
Land Management & Other	$1.701	$1.584
Total Operating Revenues	$39.846	$46.643

KPIs – Citrus Production and Pricing (FY)

KPI	FY 2023	FY 2024
Boxes Harvested – Total (Millions)	2.689	3.084
Pound Solids – Total (Thousands)	13,288	14,729
Pound Solids per Box – Early/Mid	4.68	4.49
Pound Solids per Box – Valencia	5.21	5.05
Price per Pound Solids – Early/Mid ($)	$2.61	$2.71
Price per Pound Solids – Valencia ($)	$2.75	$2.88

Notes: Q4 seasonality was pronounced (harvest weighted to earlier quarters), with Q4 showing low revenue and large impairment charge; FY revenue growth reflects higher volumes and pricing, while gross loss and Adjusted EBITDA improvement reflect normalization vs prior year’s hurricane-related adjustments .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Financial Outlook (EPS/Revenue)	FY 2025	None provided	No financial forecast due to limited visibility on crop size/revenues	Maintained “no guidance” stance
Citrus Pricing (Tropicana)	2024–2027	Expiring contracts	New 3-year agreement; prices ≈33–50% higher over contract life	Raised pricing trajectory
Dividend	Q2–Q4 2024	$0.05 per share quarterly	$0.05 per share paid Oct 11, 2024; continued quarterly cadence	Maintained
Liquidity – RLOC	Effective 9/17/2024	$25M capacity; separate $70M working capital LOC	RLOC increased to $95M; maturity to May 1, 2034; ~$86.6M undrawn at 9/30/24	Raised capacity/extended tenor

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2, Q3)	Current Period (Q4)	Trend
OTC trunk injections and tree health	Treated >35% of trees in 2023; ~4.5M trees treated in 2024; early yield improvement but quality/fruit drop not yet improved; second-year benefits expected	Nearly all producing trees treated; continued optimism on sequential improvement; grants covering ~35% of FY24 OTC costs	Improving execution; potential yield/quality tailwinds in 2025
Pricing/contracts	Negotiating renewals; expecting multi-year contracts at higher prices	Signed Tropicana agreement; prices ≈33–50% higher over life; additional contract coverage remains	Positive pricing realization
Weather/hurricanes	Debby (no damage); ongoing post-Ian recovery; harvest timing shifts	Hurricane Milton: minimal tree damage; measurable fruit drop in northern groves; impact uncertain	Weather risk remains; monitoring fruit drop impacts
Inventory impairments	$17.7M in Q2 tied to Valencia; total FY inventory write-down $28.5M	Additional $19.5M impairment in Q4 for 2024–2025 harvest	Elevated non-GAAP adjustments; near-term margin pressure
Real estate monetization/entitlements	Land sales (Alico Ranch sold); options for mining; 4,500-acre entitlement program initiated; new EVP of Real Estate	Continued entitlement progress; evaluating properties across multiple counties; commitment to highest/best use	Strategic optionality expanding
Liquidity/debt	~$95M undrawn LOCs; no term amortization until 2029	RLOC increased to $95M; ~$86.6M undrawn at YE; Debt/Assets 0.23x	Strong liquidity sustained

Management Commentary

“We are unable to forecast the size of the 2024–2025 crops at this time, and cannot provide any financial forecast for this fiscal year until we have greater visibility about our expected revenues.”
“Lower production… resulted in lower levels of pounds solid being produced, which required the Company to write-down $28.5 million… and $19.5 million… of total inventory.”
“This crop will be sold at prices 30-plus percent higher than last season because of the new supply agreement with Tropicana.”
“Initial assessments indicate that substantially all our trees remain intact… the impact of the storm will be on production in the current season, rather than on long-term production.”
“We believe that the RLOC provides us with ample liquidity… to manage significant weather events; as well as to ensure that we have time and capital to realize the long-term highest and best use of our real estate assets.”

Q&A Highlights

OTC treatment efficacy: Management saw “material and substantial improvement in production” vs control groups after OTC, but not yet in quality/fruit drop; expects sequential benefits as second-year treatments roll through .
Contract renewals: Aiming for multi-year agreements at/above current market pricing across processors; subsequent signing of Tropicana agreement validates pricing uplift .
Balance sheet/net debt trajectory: While liquidity is ample (~$95M lines at Q2; amended to $95M RLOC at Q4), net debt forecasting is difficult amid impairments; prudence emphasized .
Note: The published Q4 transcript captured prepared remarks; a full Q&A section was not available in the retrieved document due to database inconsistency .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus estimates (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 and FY 2024/2025 were unavailable at time of retrieval due to data access limits. As a result, we cannot benchmark reported results versus consensus this quarter. If needed, we can refresh and include consensus comparisons once access is restored.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term caution: Large Q4 impairment ($19.5M) and no FY25 guidance reflect limited visibility; expect continued estimate volatility until fruit drop and yield trends stabilize post-Milton .
Pricing tailwind: Multi-year Tropicana agreement (≈33–50% higher pricing) should lift realized prices and support margin recovery as volumes normalize .
Agronomic execution: Broad OTC injections and maturing replantings (>2.2M since 2017) are aligned with multi-year yield improvement; monitor pound solids per box and fruit drop sequentially .
Liquidity optionality: RLOC expanded to $95M (maturity 2034), ~$86.6M undrawn at year-end; positions Alico to manage weather shocks and invest in operations/real estate entitlements .
Real estate monetization: Continued land sales and entitlement progress provide diversified cash generation and valuation support; watch upcoming transactions/options exercise timelines .
Dividend stability: Quarterly $0.05 maintained through Q4; policy prudent given operational uncertainty and capital priorities .
Trading implications: Stock narrative likely driven by updates on 2024–2025 harvest volumes, Milton fruit drop impacts, Tropicana pricing realization in reported ASPs, and incremental land monetization/entitlement milestones .

ALICO, INC. (ALCO)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary