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    Align Technology Inc (ALGN)

    Q2 2024 Summary

    Updated Jan 10, 2025, 5:10 PM UTC
    Initial Price$327.01April 1, 2024
    Final Price$238.64July 1, 2024
    Price Change$-88.37
    % Change-27.02%
    • Increasing doctor utilization and expansion of the doctor base globally, indicating successful investments in training and market penetration. This growth occurred across the globe, not just in one region.
    • Strong adult case volume growth, achieving the highest quarter in many quarters, reflecting robust demand and stability in the adult segment.
    • Improved margins despite lower ASPs, due to a shift to higher-margin products and cost efficiencies, allowing for increased non-GAAP operating margin guidance for 2024.
    1. Guidance Reduction and ASP Decline
      Q: Why did you lower guidance and see ASP declines?
      A: John Morici explained that the guidance reduction is due to unfavorable foreign exchange impacts and a mix shift toward lower-priced products preferred by customers. Over 1 percentage point of the reduction is related to foreign exchange. Customers are buying more lower-priced products, like the Doctor Subscription Program, which has a lower ASP but better gross margins.

    2. Impact of iTero Restorative Launch Delay
      Q: Did the delay of the iTero restorative launch impact guidance?
      A: Yes, the full launch of Lumina restorative has been pushed to next year, and the expected revenue for this year was part of the guidance reduction. The delay accounts for slightly less than 1% of total revenue.

    3. Non-GAAP EBIT Margin Outlook
      Q: How can margins improve despite lower revenue guidance?
      A: John Morici stated that despite the lower revenue, they expect operating margins to be slightly up due to better gross margins from lower-stage products with lower ASPs but higher margins. The company is mindful of operating expenses and aims to deliver volume while maintaining profitability.

    4. Mix Shift to Lower-Priced Products
      Q: Are customers' preference for lower-priced products a concern?
      A: Joe Hogan explained that the shift is a response to market demands; offering a variety of products at different price points meets customer needs globally. The lower ASPs are offset by better margins, and the company is not seeing market-driven price declines but adapting to customer preferences.

    5. Doctor Utilization Increase
      Q: What drove the increase in doctors shipped to number?
      A: Joe Hogan noted that the number of doctors increased to over 86,000, reflecting efforts to expand the doctor base and increase utilization. Growth occurred globally, demonstrating success in attracting new doctors and re-engaging previous ones.

    6. Direct Manufacturing (Direct Fab) Timeline
      Q: What's the timeline for scaling direct fabrication?
      A: Joe Hogan indicated that scaling direct fabrication is expected over the next 2 to 3 years. The process involves significant equipment work and sourcing new resin, requiring time to ensure efficiency and capacity.

    7. China Market Performance
      Q: How did China perform and what's the outlook?
      A: Joe Hogan stated that China's performance met expectations, particularly in private Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities. The team anticipates a strong teen quarter in the third quarter, which is historically the largest for China.

    8. Adult Case Volume and Macro Environment
      Q: What's the trend in adult case volumes and macro expectations?
      A: The company saw growth in adult cases, with the highest volume in many quarters. They expect market stability and are pleased with progress in the GP (General Practitioner) business and DSOs (Dental Service Organizations).

    9. Teen Cases Growth
      Q: Can you elaborate on the acceleration in teen cases?
      A: Teen cases grew over 8% quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. Growth was strong globally, reflecting adoption of various products and new doctors entering the ecosystem.

    10. Initiatives Affecting ASP and Volume
      Q: How do recent initiatives impact ASP and volume?
      A: Changes to the Advantage program aim to drive utilization by providing structure and incentives for doctors to do more cases. Programs like the Costco pilot are designed to improve conversion by connecting potential patients with doctors. These initiatives may affect ASP due to product mix but are intended to boost overall volume and margins.