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AP

Allegion plc (ALLE)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 delivered record revenue of $1.022B (+5.8% reported, +3.2% organic) and adjusted EPS of $2.04, both above Wall Street consensus; GAAP EPS was $1.85 and adjusted operating margin held at 23.7% .
  • Americas non-residential led with high-single-digit organic growth; residential declined mid-single digits; electronics grew low double digits; segment adjusted margins expanded in both Americas (+50 bps to 29.9%) and International (+100 bps to 13.1%) .
  • Guidance raised: FY25 reported revenue growth to 6.5–7.5% (organic 3.5–4.5%) and adjusted EPS to $8.00–$8.15; tariff cost assumption cut to ~$40M with price actions expected to neutralize EPS impact .
  • Potential stock catalysts: first-ever >$1B quarterly revenue milestone, guidance raise, and accretive portfolio moves (ELATEC closed July 1; Gatewise acquired) that enhance electronics/software mix .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • “Quarterly revenue exceeded $1 billion for the first time in our company’s history” and “strong organic growth in our non-residential Americas business” .
    • Segment margin expansion: Americas adjusted operating margin to 29.9% (+50 bps) and International to 13.1% (+100 bps), driven by mix, price/productivity and accretive acquisitions .
    • Strategic M&A momentum and electronics innovation: completion of ELATEC acquisition and Gatewise SaaS deal; SimonsVoss launched “Fort Lox,” Allegion’s first battery-less electronic cylinder .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Residential weakness persisted: Americas residential declined mid-single digits on continued high interest rates .
    • Price/productivity net of inflation/investment was a headwind of $5.3M at the enterprise level; corporate expense increased (incentive comp), offsetting segment margin gains and keeping adjusted OI margin flat YoY at 23.7% .
    • International organic revenue down 2.2% despite currency tailwind, reflecting mechanical portfolio pressure; volume headwinds cited .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q2 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Millions)$965.6 $941.9 $1,022.0 $999.4*
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$1.77 $1.71 $1.85 $1.987*
Adjusted EPS ($)$1.96 $1.86 $2.04
Operating Margin (%)21.6% 20.9% 21.5%
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)23.7% 22.7% 23.7%

Note: Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment performance and margins:

SegmentQ2 2024 Revenue ($MM)Q1 2025 Revenue ($MM)Q2 2025 Revenue ($MM)Q2 2024 Adj OI MarginQ1 2025 Adj OI MarginQ2 2025 Adj OI Margin
Americas$770.7 $757.8 $821.5 29.4% 29.2% 29.9%
International$194.9 $184.1 $200.5 12.1% 10.2% 13.1%

Key KPIs:

KPIQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Cash & Equivalents ($MM)$494.5 $656.8
Total Debt ($MM)$1,997.0 $2,067.2
YTD Available Cash Flow ($MM)$176.0 $83.4 $275.4
Share Repurchase ($MM, Qtr)~$40 ~$40
Dividend per Share ($, Qtr)$0.51 $0.51
Effective Tax Rate (GAAP, %)17.8% 15.4% 20.3%
Adjusted Effective Tax Rate (%)18.2% 16.1% 20.7%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Apr 24)Current Guidance (Jul 24)Change
Reported Revenue Growth (%)FY 20251%–3% 6.5%–7.5% Raised
Organic Revenue Growth (%)FY 20251.5%–3.5% 3.5%–4.5% Raised
GAAP EPS ($)FY 2025$7.05–$7.25 $7.25–$7.40 Raised
Adjusted EPS ($)FY 2025$7.65–$7.85 $8.00–$8.15 Raised
Adjusted Effective Tax Rate (%)FY 2025~17%–18% ~17%–18% Maintained
Tariff Costs ($MM)FY 2025~$80 ~$40 Lowered
ACF (% of Adjusted Net Income)FY 202585%–90% 85%–90% Maintained
Avg Diluted Shares (MM)FY 2025~86.7 ~86.5 Slightly Lower

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4’24, Q1’25)Current Period (Q2’25)Trend
Tariffs & PricingFY25 tariff estimate $80M; price/surcharge actions; aim to neutralize at OI/EPS; ~1-month price-cost lag noted for Q2 Tariff estimate cut to ~$40M; surcharge revenue included (~25% in Q2, ~75% in H2); maintain EPS neutrality Improving headwind magnitude; execution remains agile
Non-Res Americas DemandLate-cycle resilience; healthy aftermarket; high-single-digit growth into Q1 High-single-digit organic growth continues; favorable mix supports margins Durable strength
Residential AmericasQ4’24 resi grew HSD; Q1’25 softness expected after Q4 pull-forward Declined MSD on rates/macro; focus on electronics innovation Ongoing softness
Electronics GrowthEncode family, new UWB products (Sense Pro, Arrive) highlighted in Q1 Low double-digit electronics growth; SimonsVoss “Fort Lox” battery-less cylinder launch Accelerating product innovation
FX & Transactional EffectsTailwind in Mexico op costs discussed in Q1 Slight transactional FX tailwind again; FX also a driver in EPS guide raise Supportive
M&A StrategyTrimco, Lemaar, Next Door; pipeline active ELATEC closed; Gatewise acquired; acquisitions accretive (International margins mid-20s for ELATEC) Portfolio quality up, margin accretive
Specification ActivitySteady growth through 2024; internal leading indicator (non-linear) Continued growth in specs supports outlook; no tariff-driven pull-forward detected Positive pipeline signals

Management Commentary

  • “We’re excited to share strong second-quarter results… Quarterly revenue exceeded $1 billion for the first time… Allegion is driving strong organic growth in our non-residential Americas business, improving portfolio quality and margins in International, and complementing this with accretive acquisitions.” — John H. Stone, CEO .
  • “Adjusted EPS of $2.04 increased 4.1%… Segment margins expanded, offset by increased corporate expenses primarily for incentive compensation.” — Mike Wagnes, CFO .
  • “We now estimate approximately $40 million of tariff surcharge revenue… We continue to expect tariffs to be neutral at the EPS level.” — CEO remarks on outlook .
  • “Fort Lox is Allegion’s first battery-less electronic cylinder… an incredible evolution… expands applications and market segments we can serve.” — CEO on SimonsVoss electronics .
  • “Collectively, we expect these acquisitions to be accretive to 2026 adjusted EPS and increase the long-term growth potential of Allegion at attractive margins.” — CEO on M&A (Elitech/ELATEC, Gatewise, WeightWile) .

Q&A Highlights

  • No evidence of tariff-induced order pull-forward; non-res project demand “humming along”; surcharge revenue phasing: ~25% of $40M in Q2, ~75% in H2; EPS neutrality maintained .
  • Americas margin strength driven by favorable non-res mix; price/productivity covered inflation/investments; slight transactional FX tailwind (Mexico) .
  • Guide raise drivers: FX, acquisitions, and strong H1 operating performance; not back-end loaded .
  • International: organic roughly flat for FY; acquisitions accretive to margin rates (ELATEC mid-20s% margins) .
  • Residential demand shows elasticity limited; aftermarket and book-and-ship model remain healthy .

Estimates Context

Comparison to S&P Global consensus:

MetricQ1 2025 EstimateQ1 2025 ActualQ2 2025 EstimateQ2 2025 ActualQ3 2025 EstimateQ3 2025 Actual
Revenue ($MM)920.8*941.9 999.4*1,022.0 1,050.2*1,070.2
Primary EPS ($)1.673*1.86 1.987*2.04 2.243*2.30
EBITDA ($MM)215.6*226.4*252.2*251.6*276.5*270.6*

Note: Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global. Revenue/EPS actuals based on company filings.

Interpretation: Revenue and EPS beat consensus in Q2; Q1 also beat; Q3 subsequently beat, reinforcing estimate upward bias potential .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q2 was a clean beat on revenue and adjusted EPS with strong non-residential momentum and broad-based margin resilience at the segment level .
  • Guidance reset higher on both top line and adjusted EPS, with tariff assumption reduced to ~$40M and surcharge revenue explicitly embedded, mitigating EPS risk in H2 .
  • Mix remains favorable (non-res > res), supporting Americas margin structure; electronics growth and accretive M&A (ELATEC, Gatewise) should enhance long-term margin and growth profile .
  • Watch the corporate cost line (incentive comp) and tax rate normalization after a discrete headwind in Q2; full-year adjusted tax rate remains 17–18% .
  • International organic still soft near term but margin trajectory improving; acquisitions and FX support FY EPS raise .
  • Near-term trading lens: bold narrative catalysts include the >$1B revenue milestone, raised guidance, and visible acquisition synergy road map; monitor tariff developments and residential demand sensitivity .
  • Medium-term thesis: late-cycle exposure, aftermarket strengths, electronics/software expansion, and disciplined capital allocation should sustain above-cycle margins and cash conversion (ACF 85–90% of adjusted NI) .

Additional Data References

  • Cash & Liquidity: YTD ACF $275.4M; Cash $656.8M; Total debt $2,067.2M .
  • Capital Returns: Q2 buybacks ~$40M; dividend $0.51/share .
  • Segment mix: Americas reported +6.6% (+4.5% organic); International +2.9% (-2.2% organic) .