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    Allegion (ALLE)

    ALLE Q2 2025 EPS Guide Up $0.15-0.20, Fueled by Nonresidential Demand

    Reported on Jul 24, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$154.36Last close (Jul 23, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$157.87Open (Jul 24, 2025)
    Price Change
    $3.51(+2.27%)
    • Resilient non-residential demand: The team emphasized that project work and spec activity in the non-residential segment are “humming along,” indicating robust underlying demand that supports revenue growth.
    • Effective tariff and pricing management: The company has adjusted its tariff surcharge from an initial $80M estimate to a more measured $40M spread throughout the year, reflecting strong pricing actions that neutralize cost pressures and help protect margins.
    • Accretive acquisitions driving growth: Strategic add-ons, notably the margin‐enhancing acquisition of Elletech, are expected to be accretive and bolster both revenue and operating margin growth over time.
    • Tariff Surcharge Uncertainty: Management’s adjustments from an initial $80M estimate to $40M raises concerns over pricing consistency and the inability to fully offset inflationary pressures, possibly affecting revenue guidance.
    • Residential Market Weakness: The residential segment showed a mid single-digit decline amid high interest rate pressures, suggesting vulnerability if broader economic conditions do not improve.
    • Integration and Acquisition Risks: The accelerated pace of multiple acquisitions, while growth-enhancing, brings integration challenges and execution risks that could offset expected margin and EPS improvements if synergies do not materialize as planned.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +5.8% ( )

    Total Revenue increased from $965.6 million in Q2 2024 to $1,022.0 million in Q2 2025 (+5.8%), reflecting the combined strength of both regional segments. This builds on previous period efforts where recovery from supply chain and pricing initiatives laid the groundwork for current growth.

    Allegion Americas

    +6.6% ( )

    Allegion Americas revenue rose from $770.7 million to $821.5 million (+6.6%), driven by strong volume and pricing improvements along with positive acquisition impacts. Previous periods showed similar trends with robust execution that have continued to compound this period’s performance.

    Allegion International

    +2.9% ( )

    Allegion International revenue increased modestly from $194.9 million to $200.5 million (+2.9%), indicating limited but steady organic growth. This moderate uptick follows earlier periods where challenges such as currency headwinds were partly offset by pricing improvements.

    Allegion Americas Products

    300% YoY ( )

    The Products sub-segment surged from $188.0 million in Q2 2024 to $783.3 million in Q2 2025 (over 300% increase), suggesting significant expansion through product portfolio enhancement and integration of acquisitions. The dramatic jump builds on previous period initiatives that improved channel strength and market reach.

    Allegion Americas Services

    +454% YoY ( )

    Allegion Americas Services expanded from $6.9 million to $38.2 million (+454%), indicating an impressive acceleration likely due to renewed focus on service offerings and integration of new capabilities. This significant rebound contrasts with the relatively lower base in the previous period and highlights strategic initiatives paying off.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Adjusted EPS

    FY 2025

    $7.65 to $7.85

    $8.00 to $8.15

    raised

    Tax Rate

    FY 2025

    17% to 18%

    17% to 18%

    no change

    Organic Revenue Growth

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    4%

    no prior guidance

    Tariff Revenue

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $40 million

    no prior guidance

    Acquisition Impact

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $0.15 to $0.20

    no prior guidance

    Non-Residential Growth

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    Non-residential business in the Americas is expected to be the primary driver

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Nonresidential Business Strength and Demand Growth

    Previously, Q1 2025 called out high single‐digit organic growth driven by healthy demand and resilient institutional verticals ; Q4 2024 discussed acceleration with strong institutional backing and broad market exposure ; Q3 2024 noted mid‐single-digit growth with stable institutional indicators.

    Q2 2025 continues to show strong nonresidential growth with high single-digit organic growth, robust demand, and market share gains, supported by institutional sectors and electronics strength.

    Consistently strong performance with resilient institutional demand and steady organic growth, reinforcing the company’s bullish view.

    Residential Market Weakness

    Q1 2025 highlighted softness driven by high mortgage rates, tariff uncertainty, and pull‐forward effects ; Q4 2024 noted a pull-forward boost masking underlying weakness and expected softness in Q1 2025 ; Q3 2024 indicated aftermarket strength but persistent multifamily softness.

    In Q2 2025, the residential segment declined mid‐single digits primarily due to the high interest rate environment, emphasizing ongoing softness.

    Persistent weakness in residential markets continues despite occasional pull-forward effects, with challenges mainly due to unfavorable interest rate conditions.

    Commercial Real Estate Segment Softness

    Q4 2024 described softness in commercial office and multifamily segments with some cautious optimism due to return-to-office trends ; Q1 2025 indirectly referenced project delays impacting commercial dynamics ; Q3 2024 reported muted performance in multifamily due to higher rates.

    In Q2 2025, softness remains evident, although modest signs of tenant turnover and fit-out activity hint at occasional improvements in major metro areas.

    Challenges persist with commercial real estate, though there are early recovery signals in urban office fit-out activities amid overall softness.

    Tariff Management and Pricing Strategy

    Q1 2025 discussed an initial $80 million tariff forecast, with pricing actions set to offset costs despite timing lags ; Q4 2024 noted price actions and supplier cost-sharing to mitigate tariffs on China and potential Mexico tariffs ; Q3 2024 focused on inflation and pricing adjustments.

    Q2 2025 revised the tariff-related revenue forecast from $80 million to $40 million, while maintaining a pricing strategy (including a 3% pricing mix) to cover inflation and tariff impacts.

    The company remains agile in pricing, revising tariff estimates downward and continuing to use surcharges to address inflation, reflecting adaptive strategy amidst evolving trade conditions.

    Acquisition Strategy and Integration Risks

    Q1 2025 detailed three bolt-on acquisitions with emphasized channel alignment and integration confidence ; Q4 2024 reported $137 million in acquisitions with active pipeline and disciplined M&A strategy ; Q3 2024 highlighted the SOSS acquisition and a favorable pipeline with confidence in integration.

    Q2 2025 announced multiple acquisitions (Trimco, NOVAS, Elletech, Gatewise, Waitwhile) with expectations of accretive EPS impact and strong integration muscle.

    An active and growing acquisition strategy continues with robust integration capabilities, supporting long-term growth and margin enhancement.

    Product Innovation and Differentiation

    Q1 2025 introduced innovative products like the Schlage Sense Pro and Arrive Smart; Q4 2024 showcased multiple product launches (e.g. Schlage XE360 series, smart lock integrations) and international innovations ; Q3 2024 focused on launching the Von Duprin 70 series and acquiring SOSS for enhanced offerings.

    Q2 2025 spotlighted innovation through the SimonsVoss business with the debut of FortLocks (a battery-less electronic cylinder) and complementary acquisitions enhancing the electronics portfolio.

    Consistent focus on innovative product development and differentiation continues, reinforcing the company’s ability to expand its product suite and maintain market leadership.

    Margin Expansion and Profitability Preservation

    Q1 2025 reported significant margin expansion (up to 150 bps) driven by volume leverage and productivity ; Q4 2024 noted modest margin growth (10 bps in Q4, 70 bps for 2024) with expectations for similar seasonality in 2025 ; Q3 2024 achieved around 100 bps improvement with strong pricing and operational execution.

    Q2 2025 delivered a 23.7% adjusted operating margin with Americas and International segments showing expansion (Americas up 50 bps, International up 100 bps), aided by nonresidential strength and accretive acquisitions.

    Steady margin expansion and efforts to preserve profitability continue, driven by favorable mix, pricing discipline, and strategic acquisitions, even as corporate expenses rise.

    Market Uncertainty and Project Delays

    Q1 2025 described project paralysis in private finance markets due to rising interest rates and delays in project execution ; Q3 2024 noted stable institutional markets amid mixed commercial dynamics with some delayed multifamily activity ; Q4 2024 did not specifically address uncertainty but noted stable institutional spending.

    Q2 2025 acknowledged ongoing market uncertainty due to high interest rates, labor shortages, and depressed ABI readings, leading to project delays despite healthy nonresidential momentum.

    Market uncertainty and project delays persist, primarily driven by unfavorable financing conditions and labor constraints, although resilience in key institutional sectors provides some offset.

    Electronics Segment Performance Dynamics

    Q1 2025 recorded low double-digit growth in electronics revenue with a strong focus on product innovation ; Q4 2024 reported low single-digit gains with expectations for improved future growth ; Q3 2024 experienced a high single-digit decline on a YoY basis due to supply chain recoveries, but projected normalization moving forward.

    Q2 2025 witnessed electronics revenue growth in the low double digits, bolstered by the acquisition of Elletech and new product initiatives from SimonsVoss, reinforcing the segment’s role as a long-term growth driver.

    The electronics segment is showing signs of recovery and robust growth, driven by new acquisitions and innovation after recent supply chain challenges.

    Capital Deployment and EPS Guidance Outlook

    Q1 2025 maintained full-year adjusted EPS guidance of $7.65‑$7.85, supported by strong cash flows and key acquisitions ; Q4 2024 provided EPS guidance in a similar range while highlighting an active capital deployment through M&A and share repurchases ; Q3 2024 raised full-year EPS outlook modestly (to $7.35‑$7.45) with continued balanced capital returns.

    Q2 2025 raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $8‑$8.15 while continuing balanced capital deployment with increased dividends, repurchases, and additional acquisitions, reflecting robust operational performance.

    An increasingly optimistic EPS outlook and active capital allocation strategy are evident as the company leverages strong operational performance and strategic acquisitions to enhance shareholder value.

    International Business Challenges

    Q1 2025 experienced modest revenue impacts from currency headwinds and European political uncertainty, with slightly lower operating income and margins ; Q4 2024 dealt with challenging macro conditions in Germany and a China exit that created headwinds, with a slight decline in margins ; Q3 2024 highlighted soft macro indicators and volume declines while beginning to build spec capabilities.

    Q2 2025 saw international revenue up slightly on a reported basis but down organically due to pressure from the mechanical portfolio, alongside a divestiture in a non-core API business; currency tailwinds and acquisitions provided some compensation.

    Ongoing challenges in international markets persist, driven by macroeconomic headwinds and currency volatility, though strategic divestitures and targeted acquisitions are part of efforts to stabilize and improve performance.

    1. EPS Guidance
      Q: What's behind the raised EPS guide?
      A: Management raised its guidance thanks to strong FX outcomes, accretive acquisitions, and robust first‐half performance, adding roughly $0.15–$0.20 to the forecast.

    2. Margin Drivers
      Q: What’s driving margin performance improvement?
      A: Improved mix in the nonresidential Americas segment along with effective pricing and productivity actions helped offset cost headwinds and supported margin stability.

    3. Nonres Activity
      Q: Is there tariff pull-forward in nonresidential sales?
      A: Management observed no abnormal ordering or pull-forward, with solid project activity keeping nonresidential growth on track.

    4. Organic Sales Outlook
      Q: How are surcharges and organic sales evolving?
      A: Surcharge estimates have been adjusted to $40M, and organic sales remain strong, driven by ongoing demand in the nonresidential market.

    5. Cost and Outlook
      Q: How will cost pressures evolve in H2?
      A: The company expects pricing actions and productivity enhancements to neutralize inflationary pressures as they progress into the second half.

    6. International Outlook
      Q: What is the H2 outlook for international?
      A: International performance is anticipated to stay flat organically, while margin improvements are expected from accretive acquisitions like Elletech.

    7. Tariff Pricing
      Q: Will tariff changes lower Q3 pricing?
      A: Tariff surcharges have been updated so that only 25% is reflected in Q2, with the remaining amount spread evenly over the rest of the year.

    Research analysts covering Allegion.