AP
Allegion plc (ALLE)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 delivered record revenue of $1.022B (+5.8% reported, +3.2% organic) and adjusted EPS of $2.04, both above Wall Street consensus; GAAP EPS was $1.85 and adjusted operating margin held at 23.7% .
- Americas non-residential led with high-single-digit organic growth; residential declined mid-single digits; electronics grew low double digits; segment adjusted margins expanded in both Americas (+50 bps to 29.9%) and International (+100 bps to 13.1%) .
- Guidance raised: FY25 reported revenue growth to 6.5–7.5% (organic 3.5–4.5%) and adjusted EPS to $8.00–$8.15; tariff cost assumption cut to ~$40M with price actions expected to neutralize EPS impact .
- Potential stock catalysts: first-ever >$1B quarterly revenue milestone, guidance raise, and accretive portfolio moves (ELATEC closed July 1; Gatewise acquired) that enhance electronics/software mix .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- “Quarterly revenue exceeded $1 billion for the first time in our company’s history” and “strong organic growth in our non-residential Americas business” .
- Segment margin expansion: Americas adjusted operating margin to 29.9% (+50 bps) and International to 13.1% (+100 bps), driven by mix, price/productivity and accretive acquisitions .
- Strategic M&A momentum and electronics innovation: completion of ELATEC acquisition and Gatewise SaaS deal; SimonsVoss launched “Fort Lox,” Allegion’s first battery-less electronic cylinder .
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What Went Wrong
- Residential weakness persisted: Americas residential declined mid-single digits on continued high interest rates .
- Price/productivity net of inflation/investment was a headwind of $5.3M at the enterprise level; corporate expense increased (incentive comp), offsetting segment margin gains and keeping adjusted OI margin flat YoY at 23.7% .
- International organic revenue down 2.2% despite currency tailwind, reflecting mechanical portfolio pressure; volume headwinds cited .
Financial Results
Note: Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment performance and margins:
Key KPIs:
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We’re excited to share strong second-quarter results… Quarterly revenue exceeded $1 billion for the first time… Allegion is driving strong organic growth in our non-residential Americas business, improving portfolio quality and margins in International, and complementing this with accretive acquisitions.” — John H. Stone, CEO .
- “Adjusted EPS of $2.04 increased 4.1%… Segment margins expanded, offset by increased corporate expenses primarily for incentive compensation.” — Mike Wagnes, CFO .
- “We now estimate approximately $40 million of tariff surcharge revenue… We continue to expect tariffs to be neutral at the EPS level.” — CEO remarks on outlook .
- “Fort Lox is Allegion’s first battery-less electronic cylinder… an incredible evolution… expands applications and market segments we can serve.” — CEO on SimonsVoss electronics .
- “Collectively, we expect these acquisitions to be accretive to 2026 adjusted EPS and increase the long-term growth potential of Allegion at attractive margins.” — CEO on M&A (Elitech/ELATEC, Gatewise, WeightWile) .
Q&A Highlights
- No evidence of tariff-induced order pull-forward; non-res project demand “humming along”; surcharge revenue phasing: ~25% of $40M in Q2, ~75% in H2; EPS neutrality maintained .
- Americas margin strength driven by favorable non-res mix; price/productivity covered inflation/investments; slight transactional FX tailwind (Mexico) .
- Guide raise drivers: FX, acquisitions, and strong H1 operating performance; not back-end loaded .
- International: organic roughly flat for FY; acquisitions accretive to margin rates (ELATEC mid-20s% margins) .
- Residential demand shows elasticity limited; aftermarket and book-and-ship model remain healthy .
Estimates Context
Comparison to S&P Global consensus:
Note: Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global. Revenue/EPS actuals based on company filings.
Interpretation: Revenue and EPS beat consensus in Q2; Q1 also beat; Q3 subsequently beat, reinforcing estimate upward bias potential .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Q2 was a clean beat on revenue and adjusted EPS with strong non-residential momentum and broad-based margin resilience at the segment level .
- Guidance reset higher on both top line and adjusted EPS, with tariff assumption reduced to ~$40M and surcharge revenue explicitly embedded, mitigating EPS risk in H2 .
- Mix remains favorable (non-res > res), supporting Americas margin structure; electronics growth and accretive M&A (ELATEC, Gatewise) should enhance long-term margin and growth profile .
- Watch the corporate cost line (incentive comp) and tax rate normalization after a discrete headwind in Q2; full-year adjusted tax rate remains 17–18% .
- International organic still soft near term but margin trajectory improving; acquisitions and FX support FY EPS raise .
- Near-term trading lens: bold narrative catalysts include the >$1B revenue milestone, raised guidance, and visible acquisition synergy road map; monitor tariff developments and residential demand sensitivity .
- Medium-term thesis: late-cycle exposure, aftermarket strengths, electronics/software expansion, and disciplined capital allocation should sustain above-cycle margins and cash conversion (ACF 85–90% of adjusted NI) .
Additional Data References
- Cash & Liquidity: YTD ACF $275.4M; Cash $656.8M; Total debt $2,067.2M .
- Capital Returns: Q2 buybacks ~$40M; dividend $0.51/share .
- Segment mix: Americas reported +6.6% (+4.5% organic); International +2.9% (-2.2% organic) .