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ALUMIS INC. (ALMS)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 revenue was $2.07M (collaboration), with net loss of $110.8M; both revenue and EPS missed S&P Global consensus (Revenue: $3.14M*, EPS: -$0.92*) as Alumis continued heavy investment in late-stage programs . Results: Revenue $2.07M vs $3.14M*, EPS -$1.06* vs -$0.92* (misses)*. Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $377.7M at 9/30/25; management reiterated runway into 2027, a key support for the pipeline through multiple data readouts .
  • Strategic momentum continued: ONWARD (Phase 3 PsO) and LUMUS (Phase 2b SLE) toplines reiterated for early Q1 2026 and Q3 2026, respectively; two JAAD publications added external validation for envu’s differentiated profile .
  • Near-term stock catalyst remains the early Q1 2026 ONWARD topline readout; management highlighted this as a potential inflection point for validating envu’s profile across immune-mediated diseases .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • External validation increased: two JAAD manuscripts from the STRIDE Phase 2 PsO program showed sustained or increasing response rates and a well-tolerated safety profile, supporting a differentiated profile for envu .
    • Pipeline breadth reinforced: A-005 showed favorable PK/PD and CNS penetration at ECTRIMS, supporting planned Phase 2 in MS; lonigutamab presented Phase 1/2 TED data at ASOPRS with favorable safety/quality-of-life signals .
    • Liquidity and runway: $377.7M in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities; runway reiterated into 2027, sufficient through multiple planned readouts .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Top-line misses: Revenue ($2.07M) trailed consensus ($3.14M*), and EPS (-$1.06*) was below consensus (-$0.92*) as operating expenses remained elevated to support late-stage programs. Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global. *
    • YoY loss widened: Net loss was $110.8M vs $93.1M in Q3 2024, driven by higher R&D ($97.8M vs $87.8M) and G&A ($19.5M vs $10.6M), including severance and stock-based comp linked to the ACELYRIN merger and increased R&D activity .
    • Collaboration revenue cadence: Revenue continues to be non-recurring in nature (collaboration) with $2.1M recognized in Q3, highlighting lack of commercial revenue until potential approvals .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$0.00 $17.39 $2.67 $2.07
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(93.12) $(98.96) $59.32 $(110.75)
Diluted EPS ($USD)*N/A$(1.82)*$0.77*$(1.06)*
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$87.82 $96.62 $108.76 $97.84
G&A Expense ($USD Millions)$10.58 $22.30 $34.45 $19.52
Gross Margin (%)*N/A100.0%*100.0%*100.0%*
Cash + Mkt. Securities (Period-End, $USD Millions)N/A$208.7 $486.3 $377.7

Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.

Vs. estimates (Q3 2025):

  • Revenue: Actual $2.07M vs Consensus $3.14M* → Miss. Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.
  • EPS: Actual -$1.06* vs Consensus -$0.92* → Miss. Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.

Additional notes:

  • Q3 revenue was collaboration revenue ($2.1M) from Kaken agreement recognition .
  • Merger-related expenses were $6.3M in Q3 ($2.8M G&A, $3.5M R&D), including $2.1M of stock-based compensation tied to accelerated vesting and exercise period modifications for severed employees .

Segment breakdown: Not applicable (no reportable segments disclosed).

KPIs (operational/financial drivers)

  • Collaboration revenue ($M): Q1: $17.39 (license from Kaken) ; Q2: $2.67 ; Q3: $2.07
  • R&D expense ($M): Q1: $96.62 ; Q2: $108.76 ; Q3: $97.84
  • G&A expense ($M): Q1: $22.30 ; Q2: $34.45 ; Q3: $19.52
  • Cash + Marketable securities ($M): Q1: $208.7 ; Q2: $486.3 ; Q3: $377.7

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash RunwayMulti-year“Into 2027” as of 6/30/25 “Into 2027” as of 9/30/25 Maintained
R&D Expense Trajectory2H25R&D expected to decrease for remaining quarters of 2025 No explicit update in Q3 release Not updated
ONWARD (PsO) ToplineEarly Q1 2026Early Q1 2026 Early Q1 2026 Maintained
LUMUS (SLE) ToplineQ3 2026Q3 2026 Q3 2026 Maintained
A-005 Phase 2 start (MS)1H 20261H 2026 1H 2026 Maintained
Envu once-daily formulation2025N/AExpect to establish in 2025 New
Lonigutamab programOngoingProgram continues to be evaluated; Fast Track granted (Q2) Program continues to be evaluated Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: A Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was not available in our document set; themes below synthesize disclosures across Q1–Q3 earnings materials.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Late-stage milestones (ONWARD, LUMUS)Enrollment completed in ONWARD and LUMUS; ONWARD topline early Q1 2026; LUMUS Q3 2026 Timelines reiterated (ONWARD early Q1 2026; LUMUS Q3 2026) On track
Merger with ACELYRINAnticipated close in Q2 with ~$737M pro forma cash Merger closed; bargain purchase gain in Q2; Q3 includes merger-related expenses Integration complete; cost normalization
Cash runwayStandalone into 2026; combined into 2027 Into 2027 reiterated Stable
A-005 (CNS-penetrant TYK2)Plan for Phase 2 initiation; Q2 update to 1H 2026 ECTRIMS poster supports CNS penetration; Phase 2 initiation anticipated 1H 2026 Validated; timeline maintained
Publications / external validationN/ATwo JAAD STRIDE PsO publications underline sustained/increasing responses and tolerability Increasing validation
Lonigutamab (TED)Fast Track designation; program under evaluation Program continues to be evaluated Under evaluation

Management Commentary

  • “We are entering an important period… topline Phase 3 ONWARD data for envudeucitinib in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis expected early in the first quarter of 2026, followed by topline Phase 2b LUMUS data in SLE in the third quarter” — CEO Martin Babler .
  • “These data readouts have the potential to validate envu’s differentiated profile and unlock broader opportunities across immune-mediated diseases” — CEO Martin Babler .
  • On platform and pipeline strategy: “Our robust pipeline… reflects the strength of our precision immunology R&D platform… two next-generation oral TYK2 inhibitor programs position us well” — CEO Martin Babler .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was available in our document set; we searched for an earnings-call-transcript and found none for this period. We relied on the 8-K 2.02 press release and prior quarter earnings releases for commentary .

Estimates Context

Metric (Q3 2025)ActualS&P Global Consensus# of EstimatesResult
Revenue ($USD Millions)$2.07 $3.14*7*Miss
Primary EPS ($)-$1.06*-$0.92*8*Miss

Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications:

  • Consensus likely drifts modestly lower near-term on revenue/EPS given the miss and lack of new near-term revenue drivers; however, estimates are chiefly milestone- and expense-driven ahead of ONWARD/LUMUS. The pivotal readouts (early Q1 2026, Q3 2026) remain the primary drivers of medium-term estimate revisions .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The quarter was operationally steady but financially light vs consensus as collaboration revenue timing and elevated OpEx drove a revenue/EPS miss; this does not alter the binary, data-driven setup into early Q1 2026 (ONWARD) and Q3 2026 (LUMUS) .
  • Liquidity remains solid with $377.7M and runway into 2027, adequate to deliver multiple data readouts without incremental capital near term, a key de-risking factor for development execution .
  • External validation improved with two JAAD publications reinforcing envu’s differentiated PsO profile; this supports confidence into ONWARD topline .
  • Expense mix showed normalization from Q2 merger-related levels (R&D $97.8M vs $108.8M in Q2), but OpEx remains substantial given late-stage activity; watch for spending cadence into Q4 as trials complete and manufacturing/scale-up needs evolve .
  • A-005 maintains a clear path with supportive CNS penetration data and Phase 2 MS initiation targeted for 1H 2026, adding optionality beyond dermatology/rheumatology .
  • Near-term trading setup: shares are likely to trade on ONWARD probability and competitive TYK2 narratives; absence of commercial revenue suggests catalysts (data/publications/FDA designations) will dominate sentiment until 2026 readouts .
  • Risk monitoring: development timelines (ONWARD/LUMUS), expense trajectory vs runway, and any updates on lonigutamab’s path in TED (Fast Track in Q2, program under evaluation) .