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ALERUS FINANCIAL CORP (ALRS)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Strong Q1 start: GAAP EPS $0.52 and adjusted EPS $0.56 on net income of $13.3M; net interest margin (NIM) expanded 21 bps q/q to 3.41% as loan/deposit growth and lower funding costs lifted net interest income to a record $41.2M .
  • Street beat: Adjusted/Primary EPS of $0.56 vs S&P Global consensus $0.3925; revenue $67.9M vs $66.1M; both beats were driven by higher NII and lower deposit costs; note GAAP diluted EPS was $0.52, Street compares on adjusted basis (Primary/normalized) *.
  • Credit and balance sheet improved: NPLs/loans fell to 1.24% (from 1.58% in Q4) and NPAs declined $11.9M; ACL rose to 1.52% of loans; TBV/share increased 5.7% q/q to $15.27 .
  • 2025 guidance raised on NIM: CFO now guides NIM of 3.2%–3.3% (vs >3% previously), loan growth mid‑single digits, adjusted efficiency ratio below 68%, and core Q2 opex around ~$49M; watch seasonal public funds outflows and a further mix shift away from noninterest-bearing deposits .
  • Near-term catalysts: sustained core margin improvement (ex-accretion/recoveries), resolution/sale of the large MN construction nonaccrual, and continued cost saves from Home Federal integration; potential volatility from mortgage/MSR marks and fee-sensitive AUM trends .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • NIM and NII momentum: “Net interest income increased to a new record level... $41.2M” with reported NIM up 21 bps to 3.41% on lower deposit costs and strong loan growth .
    • Cleaner credit metrics: Nonperforming loans/loans improved to 1.24% (from 1.58%), NPAs/assets fell to 0.96%, and net charge-offs were just 4 bps; ACL/loans increased to 1.52% .
    • Capital/TBV accretion: TBV/share rose to $15.27 (+5.7% q/q); TCE/TA improved to 7.43% and CET1 to 10.10% .
    • CEO tone: “Strong start to the year… diversified model and top decile fee income remain significant differentiators” .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Fee income down sequentially: Noninterest income fell $6.2M q/q (to $27.6M) due to absence of a $3.5M property gain, fewer client swaps, and lower mortgage/MSR marks .
    • Mix shift headwind: Management expects a further 200 bps shift from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing deposits in 2025, weighing on NIM (partly offset by HSA/synergistic deposits) .
    • Mortgage/MSR volatility: MSR fair value declined $0.7M; management doesn’t plan to grow MSR exposure and expects continued valuation fluctuations .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Interest Income ($M)$22.2 $22.5 $38.3 $41.2
Noninterest Income ($M)$25.3 $28.4 $33.9 $27.6
Provision for Credit Losses ($M)$0.0 $1.7 $12.0 $0.9
Net Income ($M)$6.4 $5.2 $3.2 $13.3
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$0.32 $0.26 $0.13 $0.52
Adjusted EPS (non‑GAAP)$0.33 $0.31 $0.44 $0.56
NIM (tax‑equivalent)2.30% 2.23% 3.20% 3.41%
Efficiency Ratio78.88% 80.29% 73.36% 68.76%
Adjusted Efficiency Ratio78.24% 77.71% 68.97% 66.86%

Segment revenue detail (noninterest):

Noninterest Revenue ($M)Q1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Retirement & Benefit Services$15.7 $16.5 $16.1
Wealth Management$6.1 $7.0 $6.9
Mortgage Banking$1.7 $3.3 $1.5
Service Charges$0.39 $0.64 $0.65
Other$1.49 $6.06 $2.44

Key KPIs and balance sheet:

KPIQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
ROA (GAAP)0.63% 0.24% 1.02%
ROTCE (GAAP)9.78% 6.01% 16.50%
Net Charge‑offs / Avg Loans0.01% 0.13% 0.04%
NPLs / Total Loans0.26% 1.58% 1.24%
ACL / Loans1.31% 1.50% 1.52%
Loans ($B)$2.80 $3.99 $4.09
Deposits ($B)$3.28 $4.38 $4.49
TBV/Share ($)$15.63 $14.49 $15.27

Estimate comparison (S&P Global):

Metric (Q1 2025)ConsensusActualSurprise
Primary EPS (adjusted/normalized)$0.3925*$0.56*Beat
Revenue ($)$66.15M*$67.93M*Beat
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q4’24 call)Current Guidance (Q1’25 call)Change
Loan GrowthFY 2025Low–mid single digits Mid single digits Raised
Deposit GrowthFY 2025Low single digits Low single digits; seasonal public funds outflows in Q2–Q3 Maintained (seasonality emphasized)
NIM (reported)FY 2025>3.0%; purchase accounting accretion 30–35 bps/quarter; improvement not linear 3.2%–3.3%; assume no nonaccrual recoveries; ~35 bps accretion; seasonal outflows; 200 bps mix shift from NIB to interest‑bearing Raised range; risks outlined
Adjusted Efficiency RatioFY 2025Below 70% Below 68% Improved target
Core Noninterest ExpenseQ2 2025N/A~ $49M core opex; mortgage incentives seasonal New detail
Fee Income OutlookFY 2025Stable y/y on reported basis (ex property gains/swaps) No change; equities down in Q2 may pressure AUM‑linked fees Maintained; caution on markets
DividendOngoingMaintain dividend history Declared $0.20 payable Apr 11, 2025 Affirmed/disclosed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3’24 and Q4’24)Current Period (Q1’25)Trend
Net interest margin trajectoryQ3 NIM 2.23%, pressure from funding mix; BTFP repaid . Q4 reported NIM 3.20%, adjusted 2.81%; deposit beta ~30% with further benefit expected .NIM 3.41%; cost of funds −19 bps; core margin supported by pricing discipline; nonaccrual recoveries added 5 bps; guide to 3.2%–3.3% for 2025 .Improving
Deposit mix and fundingQ3: noninterest‑bearing deposits down; $0 brokered; synergistic deposits rising . Q4: loan/deposit stable at 91.2% .Q1: deposits +2.4% q/q; NIB fell $14.2M; HSA/synergistic deposits grew; expect 200 bps shift from NIB to interest‑bearing in 2025 .Mix headwind; stable liquidity
HMNF integration and cost savesQ4: biggest merger closed; adj. efficiency 68.97%; cost saves front‑half weighted .Q1: adj. efficiency 66.86%; “cost saves on track”; consultant engaged to codify commercial credit operating model .Executing; further gains expected
Credit normalization / CRE constructionQ3: NPLs up from two relationships incl. construction; net charge‑offs 4 bps . Q4: NPAs 1.19%; construction advance to completion; exposure to rise to $36–37M .Q1: NPLs down to 1.24% of loans; one large nonaccrual paid off; provision $0.9M; portfolio “normalized,” low past‑dues .Improving, but watch listed project
Fee businesses (Retirement/Wealth)Q3: fee income 55.7% of revenue; retirement scaled; wealth growing . Q4: fee income 46.9%; property gain and swaps elevated “other” .Q1: fee income 40% of revenue; q/q decline due to no property gain, fewer swaps, MSR mark; wealth +13% y/y; retirement +2.9% y/y .Seasonally softer; structural strength
Macro/policy commentaryN/A in Q3; Q4 framed rate cuts, betas .Monitoring “potential tariffs and government spending cuts;” proactive client outreach .Cautious stance

Management Commentary

  • Strategic focus: “One Alerus strategy… unified and collaborative approach… grow our franchise through full relationships… commercial banking, treasury, private banking and wealth” .
  • Integration and growth: “First full quarter with HMNF fully integrated… momentum in high-quality organic growth… driving efficiency improvements” .
  • Margin drivers: “Total cost of funds dropped 19 bps… $5.1M of purchase accounting accretion (4 bps from early payoffs)… nonaccrual recovery added 5 bps” .
  • Fee mix and MSR: “Mortgage revenues were down… $734K decrease in MSR fair value… not looking to actively grow this portfolio” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Core vs reported margin: Core margin expected to improve from ~2.94% ex accretion/recoveries as loan yields remain strong and deposit costs trend lower .
  • Construction nonaccrual resolution: Project ~36% leased; interior substantially complete; expected certificate of occupancy by June/July; listing for sale this quarter .
  • Expense run‑rate: Core opex around ~$49M in Q2; full‑year growth low double digits off ~$176M 2024 core base; cost saves front‑half weighted .
  • Capital priorities/M&A: Build capital via earnings; prioritize selective organic growth, retirement roll‑ups, and maintain dividend .
  • Balance sheet repricing: ~$380M loan maturities in 2025 with ~100 bps pickup; ~$100M CDs repricing over ~9 months .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 performance vs S&P Global consensus: Primary EPS (normalized) $0.56 vs $0.3925 consensus; Revenue $67.93M vs $66.15M consensus — both beats driven by stronger NII and deposit cost relief; note GAAP diluted EPS was $0.52 *.
  • Implications: Street models may need higher NIM trajectory (to 3.2–3.3%) and modestly higher NII; fee income run‑rates should reflect absence of property gains/swaps and MSR volatility per guidance . Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Core earnings power is inflecting: NIM expansion and record NII underscore a positive slope for core profitability even as deposit mix headwinds persist .
  • Fee engine remains a differentiator: Retirement/Wealth provide stability and capital‑light growth; expect some quarter‑to‑quarter variability from markets and MSR marks .
  • Credit normalization progressing: NPLs and NPAs improved; watch the MN construction project sale timeline but overall loss content appears manageable with robust reserves (ACL 1.52%) .
  • Cost discipline and synergy capture: Adjusted efficiency reached 66.9%; additional cost saves and operating model work should support sub‑68% for 2025 .
  • Guidance constructive: Raised NIM range (3.2%–3.3%), mid‑single‑digit loan growth, and stable fees suggest upward bias to consensus NII; near‑term noise from seasonal deposits/AUM possible .
  • Dividend intact: $0.20 declared for Q1 (payable Apr 11), signaling confidence in capital build post‑HMNF .
  • Trading setup: Catalysts include sustained core margin improvement (ex‑accretion/recovery), resolution of the construction nonaccrual, and further synergy delivery; risks include deposit mix pressure, mortgage/MSR volatility, and macro drag on fee AUM .

Notes: GAAP/Reported figures and non‑GAAP reconciliations are from company filings/press releases. Street comparisons use S&P Global consensus; GAAP diluted EPS for Q1’25 was $0.52, while S&P’s “Primary EPS actual” reflects adjusted/normalized EPS of $0.56 *.

References: Q1’25 8‑K and press release ; Q1’25 press release ; Q1’25 call transcript ; Q4’24 press release and call ; Q3’24 press release .