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    ALERUS FINANCIAL (ALRS)

    ALRS Q2 2025: Q3 Accretion at 27bps Offsets 8–10bps Deposit Cost Rise

    Reported on Jul 28, 2025
    Pre-Earnings PriceN/ADate unavailable
    Post-Earnings PriceN/ADate unavailable
    Price ChangeN/A
    • Improving Margins: Management anticipates lower purchase accounting accretion in future quarters (down to 27 bps in Q3 and 22 bps in Q4), which supports an upward margin trajectory.
    • Enhanced Wealth Management Platform: The complete conversion and upgrade of their wealth management system is expected to boost client and adviser experiences, aiding in fee growth and investor appeal.
    • Strategic Deposit Management: Despite rising deposit costs, the team’s focus on full relationships and experienced commercial deposit bankers underscores confidence in maintaining strong deposit growth and liquidity.
    • Rising deposit costs: Management expects an 8–10 basis point increase in deposit costs in Q3 due to intensified competition and a shift toward more interest-bearing deposits, which could compress margins.
    • Credit quality concerns: The Q&A highlighted nonperforming loans at nearly the peers’ level, driven by two large exposures—with one resolution expected only in early to mid-2026—raising potential credit risk issues.
    • Seasonal weakness in fee income: Despite strong year‐to‐date fee momentum, guidance indicates a potential seasonal downturn in mortgage fees that may drag overall fee income performance in the second half.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Loan Growth

    FY 2025

    mid‑single digits for FY 2025

    mid‑single digits for FY 2025, excluding loans moved to held for sale

    no change

    Deposit Growth

    FY 2025

    low single digits for FY 2025

    low single digits for FY 2025, with continued seasonal deposit outflows from public funds expected in Q3

    no change

    Net Interest Margin

    FY 2025

    3.2% to 3.3% for FY 2025

    3.25% to 3.35% for FY 2025

    raised

    Adjusted Efficiency Ratio

    FY 2025

    below 68% for FY 2025

    below 68% for FY 2025

    no change

    Noninterest Income

    FY 2025

    No change to the outlook for noninterest income

    up low single digits for FY 2025 on a reported basis

    raised

    Core Expenses

    Q3 2025

    no prior guidance

    about $49M to $50M in Q3

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Margin Performance and Pressure

    Q1 2025 saw a 21 basis point NIM increase driven by organic loan growth and lower interest costs ; Q4 2024 highlighted a 97bps improvement and acquisition benefits ; Q3 2024 emphasized deposit pricing pressure and challenges with purchase accounting accretion affecting margins.

    Q2 2025 reported a 10bps NIM gain to 3.51% with stable cost of funds, driven by organic loan growth and purchase accounting contributions; however, deposit costs are expected to rise by 8–10bps due to a mix shift and continued competition.

    Consistent focus on improving margins with continuous organic growth, though deposit cost pressures remain a headwind; guidance now reflects a trade‐off between rate improvements and rising deposit costs.

    Credit Quality and Risk Management

    Q1 2025 noted declines in nonperforming loans, robust reserve levels, and proactive risk management ; Q4 2024 focused on building reserves and monitoring rising nonperforming assets in specific segments ; Q3 2024 stressed early identification of problem loans and proactive downgrades with stable charge‐offs.

    Q2 2025 maintained stable credit metrics with adjusted net charge-offs at seven basis points, steady nonperforming asset levels, and proactive risk reduction via strategic loan sales and balance sheet optimization.

    Stable and vigilant; the company continues its proactive approach to monitoring and managing credit risk while maintaining robust reserves, with little deterioration in quality.

    Deposit Management and Funding Costs

    Q1 2025 reported organic deposit growth of 2.4% and a 19bp drop in overall cost of funds driven by rate cuts ; Q4 2024 highlighted strong deposit growth—boosted by the Home Federal acquisition—and significant cost improvements ; Q3 2024 discussed seasonal deposit volatility amid competitive pressures.

    Q2 2025 saw deposits shrink by 3.3% due to seasonal outflows and anticipates an 8–10bps increase in deposit costs stemming from a mix shift from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing deposits and ongoing market competition.

    Consistent subject with seasonal volatility; while deposit management remains key, the current period reflects expected seasonal outflows and rising costs amid competitive dynamics.

    Fee Income Volatility

    Q1 2025 showed an 18.4% decline in fee income tied to seasonal mortgage declines and the absence of one‐time gains ; Q4 2024 pointed to a roughly 6% step-down due to one-time gain adjustments ; Q3 2024 experienced modest growth (3.6%) fueled by asset base expansion and a gain on office sale.

    Q2 2025, in contrast, reported a 15% increase in fee income quarter-over-quarter with fee income remaining above 40% of revenues, although a seasonal mortgage downturn is anticipated later in the year.

    Volatility persists; while previous periods experienced declines or modest growth, Q2 2025 shows a significant rebound in fee income even as seasonal challenges remain a potential risk.

    Organic Loan and Deposit Growth

    Q1 2025 recorded 2.3% organic loan growth and 2.4% deposit growth supporting a strengthened commercial profile ; Q4 2024 delivered over 5% organic loan and almost 3% deposit growth (excluding acquisition impacts) ; Q3 2024 emphasized strong year-to-date deposit growth over 7% with robust loan performance.

    Q2 2025 noted modest loan growth at 0.5% over the prior quarter, with deposits declining by 3.3% due to predictable seasonal outflows and shifts in the account mix.

    Ongoing focus on organic growth; however, the current period shows a slowdown in loan growth and expected deposit contraction due to seasonality, even as the strategic emphasis remains.

    Integration and Acquisition Challenges

    Q1 2025 highlighted the challenges and active efforts in integrating Home Federal—including new hires, consultant engagement, and cost savings—to drive efficiency ; Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 discussed integration issues, merger-related expenses, and the benefits of a proven acquisition playbook.

    Q2 2025 did not specifically emphasize integration challenges; mentions were limited to positive references on the Home Federal acquisition’s impact on retention and balance sheet optimization without detailed integration discussion.

    Reduced emphasis; previous periods focused heavily on managing integration challenges, whereas Q2 2025 indicates smoother integration progress with less public focus on transitional issues.

    Enhanced Wealth Management Platform

    Q3 2024 introduced plans for a new technology platform to transform client and adviser experiences, building on successful recruitment strategies ; Q1 2025 discussed transitioning to a new platform intended to drive revenue synergies in wealth management ; Q4 2024 briefly noted platform improvements with growing client relationships.

    Q2 2025 provided a robust update on an upgraded wealth management platform expected to enhance client and adviser experiences, with ambitions to double wealth adviser numbers and grow assets under management in lockstep with banking assets.

    Emerging and positive; the focus on technological enhancements in the wealth management platform has continued and intensified, highlighting its strategic importance for future growth and operational improvement.

    Operating Efficiency and Capital Strength

    Q1 2025 reported an adjusted efficiency ratio of 66.9% with ongoing expense management and capital strengthening (TCE at 7.43% and CET1 at 10%) ; Q4 2024 described improvements in efficiency from 77.71% to 68.97% amid acquisition impacts and cost adjustments ; Q3 2024 discussed moderate expense increases offset by revenue gains and a stable capital base.

    Q2 2025 showcased a marked improvement with an adjusted efficiency ratio of 52.4% driven by cost reductions and revenue growth, while capital metrics remained strong with a CET1 ratio of 10.5% and TCE of 7.87%, supported by robust liquidity of $2.7 billion.

    Significant improvement in operating efficiency along with consistently strong capital strength; cost management success and strategic investments have resulted in much better efficiency ratios compared to previous periods, underscoring a robust financial foundation.

    1. Margin Accretion
      Q: Q3/Q4 accretion expectations?
      A: Management expects 27 bps in Q3 and 22 bps in Q4 with no early payoff elements, supporting steady margin improvement.

    2. Deposit Costs
      Q: Details on deposit cost increase?
      A: They anticipate an 8–10 bps rise in deposit costs in Q3 driven by mix shifts and competitive pressures.

    3. Credit Quality
      Q: When will nonperformers resolve?
      A: Nonperformers are driven by two large relationships, with one construction deal expected to resolve early 2026 and a residential issue by mid‑2026.

    4. Loan Growth
      Q: What drives the loan growth?
      A: Growth is coming mainly from leveraging the current client base to gain market share, not from new customer demand.

    5. Capital Deployment
      Q: What are capital deployment plans?
      A: The focus remains on organic balance sheet growth with franchise accretive clients and an aim for higher 8% TCE, while considering opportunistic M&A on the retirement side.

    6. Fee Income
      Q: How is fee income expected to perform?
      A: Despite strong year-to-date momentum, fee income is projected to remain stable as seasonal mortgage slowdowns balance out gains.

    7. Credit Standards
      Q: How are credit risks managed?
      A: The team addressed credit risks by robustly identifying and isolating deteriorated loans, ensuring disciplined underwriting.

    8. Technology Upgrades
      Q: What is the impact of tech upgrades?
      A: New platforms in wealth and commercial banking enhance the client experience, improve analytics, and bolster adviser recruitment.

    9. Staffing & M&A
      Q: Need for additional hire on producers?
      A: The existing team has sufficient capacity, though opportunistic hires will be made if a clear strategic benefit arises.

    Research analysts covering ALERUS FINANCIAL.