Allison Transmission - Q4 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Allison Transmission's fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. My name is Camilla, and I will be your conference call operator today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After prepared remarks, Allison Transmission executives will conduct a question-and-answer session, and conference call participants will be given instructions at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jackie Bolles, Executive Director of Treasury and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Jackie.

Jackie Bolles (Executive Director of Treasury and Investor Relations)

Thank you, Camilla. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call. With me this afternoon are Dave Graziosi, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Fred Bohley, our Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer. As a reminder, this conference call webcast and this afternoon's presentation are available on the Investor Relations section of AllisonTransmission.com. A replay of this call will be available through February 27. As noted on Slide 2 of the presentation, many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, including those set forth in our fourth quarter 2023 earnings press release and our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, as well as other general economic factors.

Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those that we express today. In addition, as noted on Slide 3 of the presentation, some of our remarks today contain non-GAAP financial measures as defined by the SEC. You can find reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures attached as an appendix to the presentation and to our fourth quarter 2023 earnings press release. Today's call is set to end at 5:45 P.M. Eastern. In order to maximize participation opportunities on the call, we'll take just one question from each analyst. Please turn to Slide 4 of the presentation for the call agenda. During today's call, Dave Graziosi will review highlights from our full year 2023 results.

Fred Bohley will then review our fourth quarter 2023 financial performance and introduce full year 2024 guidance. Dave will then close with an update on recent announcements across our business prior to commencing the Q&A. Now, I'll turn the call over to Dave Graziosi.

David Graziosi (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, Jackie. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. 2023 finished on a strong note with fourth quarter net sales accelerating 5% sequentially and 8% year-over-year. Fourth quarter increases boosted full-year top-line performance to a record $3.035 billion, an increase of 10% from 2022. Our top-line performance for the year was driven by robust demand in our North America on-highway end market of 13% year-over-year, attributed to strength in the Class 8 vocational and medium-duty trucks. We hold a favorable outlook for our largest end market into 2024 and beyond, as we believe the market has not fully satisfied pent-up demand, and upcoming emissions changes in 2027 will support our medium-duty strength.

Also contributing to our full-year performance, we realized an 18% increase year-over-year in our service parts, support equipment, and other end market, leading to record annual revenue of nearly $700 million. We expect continued strength in our aftermarket business, driven by aging fleets and increased demand for Allison Genuine Service Parts, as warranties for units with high volume production years in 2018 and 2019 expire. Continuing with our full-year 2023 performance, we are pleased with our team's commitment to controlling costs in an inflationary environment and expanding margin while increasing our earnings power. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $1.108 billion for 2023, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding 180 basis points from 2022.

Net income increased 27% year-over-year to $673 million. Finally, we achieved full-year record diluted EPS of $7.40, up 34% from 2022. As we increase earnings while reducing share count through our capital allocation priorities, we expect to further improve our per-share performance while funding the business for growth and returning capital to shareholders through our quarterly dividend and share repurchase program. In the fourth quarter of 2023, we repurchased over $100 million worth of our shares, bringing the total for 2023 to over $260 million and ending the year with almost $800 million of authorized share repurchase capacity remaining. Shares repurchased in 2023 represent nearly 6% of outstanding shares, with over 63% of our outstanding shares repurchased since our IPO in 2012.

Thank you, and I'll now turn the call over to Fred.

Frederick Bohley III (COO)

Thank you, Dave. Following Dave's full-year 2023 results comments, I'll discuss the Q4 2023 performance summary and the Q4 2023 cash flow performance. I will then introduce full-year 2024 guidance. Please turn to Slide 5 of the presentation for the Q4 2023 performance summary. Year-over-year net sales increased 8% from the same period in 2022 to a fourth quarter record of $775 million. The increase in year-over-year results was led by a 14% increase in the North American on-highway end market, due to continued strength and demand for Class 8 vocational and medium-duty trucks, and a 34% increase in net sales in the defense end market, principally driven by increased demand for tracked and wheeled vehicle applications.

Year-over-year, year-over-year results were also improved by a 31% increase in net sales in the outside North American off-highway end market, principally driven by higher demand in the mining sector. Gross profit for the quarter was $371 million, a 10% increase from $338 million for the same period in 2022. The increase was principally driven by increased net sales and price increases on certain products, partially offset by higher direct material costs. Net income for the quarter was $170 million, an increase of 21% from $141 million for the same period in 2022. The increase was principally driven by higher gross profit. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $277 million, compared to $245 million for the same period in 2022.

The increase was principally driven by higher gross profit. Diluted earnings per share increased 26% to $1.91 from the same period in 2022, driven by higher net income and lower total shares outstanding. A detailed overview of our net sales by end market in Q4 2023 financial performance can be found on Slides 6 and 7 of the presentation. I'll now turn to Slide 8 of the presentation for the Q4 2023 cash flow performance summary. Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was $186 million, compared to $132 million for the same period in 2022. The increase was principally driven by lower capital expenditures, higher gross profit, and lower operating working capital funding requirements.

During the fourth quarter, we paid a dividend of $0.23 per share and repurchased $105 million of our common stock. We ended the quarter with a net leverage ratio of 1.8 times, $555 million of cash, and $645 million of available revolving credit facility commitments. In addition, we continue to maintain a flexible, long-dated, and covenant-lite debt structure. Of our $2.5 billion of outstanding debt, $618 million is subject to variable interest rates, of which $500 million is hedged, resulting in 95% of our debt being fixed through the third quarter of 2025. Please turn to Slide 9 of the presentation for the 2024 guidance.

For 2024, Allison expects net sales to be in the range of $3.05 billion–$3.15 billion. We are guiding to another record net sales year. In addition to Allison's 2024 net sales guidance, we anticipate net income in the range of $635 million–$685 million. Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.07 billion–$1.13 billion. Net cash provided by operating activities in the range of $700 million–$760 million. Capital expenditures in the range of $125 million–$135 million, and adjusted free cash flow in the range of $575 million–$625 million.

Thank you, and I'll now turn the call back over to Dave for an update on recent announcements.

David Graziosi (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, Fred. The 2024 outlook for our North America on-highway end market remains robust, as infrastructure spending is expected to continue to support Class 8 vocational demand. Last month, we made two notable announcements related to this end market. First, we were pleased to announce that our $100 million incremental annual revenue opportunity in the Class 8 regional haul and day cab market continues to progress, as one of the largest global logistics and delivery companies has specified Allison's 3414 Regional Haul Series as the propulsion solution of choice. The global logistics and delivery company is purchasing Freightliner Cascadia CNG tractors equipped with Allison's 3414 RHS for their fleet. Last year, Daimler released our 3414 RHS, paired with a CNG engine into their Freightliner Cascadia day cab tractor, highlighting the benefits of our new product and the fuel-agnostic nature of Allison's conventional transmissions.

Second, in our North America on-highway end market, we were pleased to announce that Allison was selected as the exclusive electric axle supplier for Oshkosh Corporation's new fully integrated electric refuse collection vehicle. Allison's eGen Power 100S has been integrated into Oshkosh's vocational truck, specifically designed for the waste management industry in order to minimize environmental impact and reduce noise. The electric refuse collection vehicle, or ERCV, will utilize two Allison eGen Power 100S e-axles in tandem configuration, while delivering cleaner air and quieter operation where deployed. Allison is already the established propulsion leader in the North America refuse market, and we look forward to maintaining our leadership position now and into the future.... Our outside North America on-highway end market is expected to have another record year in 2024, with revenue guidance of 14% year-over-year at the midpoint.

After a record year in 2023, we anticipate continued strength, driven by the execution of our growth initiatives. Last month, we announced a strategic partnership agreement with SANY, a global heavy equipment manufacturer for mining and construction markets. Through the partnership, Allison will supply its family of Off-Road Series and Wide Body Dump Series transmissions for integration into mining vehicles, including the next generation SANY SKT105 wide body mining dump. This partnership will support Allison's $100 million incremental at annual revenue opportunity, and strategically aligns with our efforts to grow share in the mining dump market in Africa, Asia, and South America as part of our outside North America on-highway growth initiative. For our defense end market, the fourth quarter was a decade-high quarter, with revenue of $63 million.

Full year revenue of $166 million, an increase of 14% from 2022, was a solid start toward achieving our $100 million growth initiative. We expect continued growth in this end market in 2024, as we capitalize on the defense upcycle, both internationally through our increased defense investments globally amidst geopolitical uncertainties and domestically through our opportunities with the United States modernization programs, as well as increased international sales to the U.S. Department of Defense. Allison remains committed to investing in and pursuing growth in our defense end market, leveraging our asset-light business model and long-standing relationships with defense OEMs as a competitive advantage. We are realizing our investments and are poised for success with a well-rounded portfolio of products to satisfy the needs and demands of global defense customers.

Today, I would like to highlight the recent announcement that Allison was awarded over $83 million to provide upgraded and new X1100 transmissions, supporting Abrams main battle tank variants used by the U.S. Army, as well as Foreign Military Sales, or FMS, customers. Allison has long supported the U.S. Army and its close partners and is proud to be part of the world's premier main battle tank. We look forward to continuing our partnerships in support of these customers in the decades to come. In addition to the announcements we have made in our defense end market over the last few years, we are looking forward to a pipeline of programs in the near future, particularly in global wheeled applications. These programs will drive further growth in our defense end market, and we look forward to updating you as timelines advance.

Moving on, in late January, we announced the launch of Allison Ventures, our new venture capital arm. Allison Ventures will strategically invest in and partner with startup and growth stage companies to foster advancements in commercial duty, mobility, and work solutions. The Allison Ventures team is focused on increasing our innovation pipeline in support of our industry technology advancement and expanding our global strategy in evolving the mobility market. We look forward to investing in technologies to grow our portfolio and further our mission, our mission to improve the way the world works. In closing, 2023 was a solid year of top-line records and margin expansion while returning capital to shareholders. We continue to invest in the development of new products and technologies across all of our end markets in order to drive growth.

Our 2023 results and future outlook demonstrate the power of Allison as we continue to make strides forward to realize our growth initiatives and develop the next generation of propulsion solutions that meet the challenges of tomorrow and ensure sustainable growth for our business. This concludes our prepared remarks. Camilla, please open the call for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue, and you may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participant equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Once again, in the interest of time, we ask that you limit, please limit to one question. Our first question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Melius Research. Please proceed with your question.

Rob Wertheimer (Founding Partner and Machinery Analyst)

Thank you. Good evening, everybody. So my question was gonna be on North America on-highway, just to start with. We saw Cummins guide on medium-duty sort of flat to down 5%, so in line with what you did. I don't think we have a great look into Class 8 straight, and I'm just curious about how you're seeing those markets and whether the outlook is in line with current production, in line with first half builds, or whether it assumes, you know, an acceleration or deceleration from what you see in your current order book. Thank you.

David Graziosi (Chairman and CEO)

Hey, Rob, it's Dave. So, a couple things there. So medium duty to start with, you know, we certainly had a strong result in 2023, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks. You know, it's a space that continues to be in what we refer to as catch-up mode. Some fleets are in better shape than others, but I would say overall, it continues to be a market that has a fairly healthy demand. We talk about the Class 8 straight truck or vocational as we refer to. That's been relatively unsupplied. I think, as you know, a number of constraints based on the public comments by the OEMs, I think that's relatively consistent with what you're hearing from them as well.

So I think that'll be a focal point for many coming into the latter part of 2023, and certainly as 2024 is starting, it's also typically a seasonally strong portion of the year for vocational anyway. So, I think that emphasis is expected to carry through for a good portion of 2024. To your question on timing, again, I think that's largely gonna be dependent on the availability for all the components to make the trucks. You know, as we've talked about, it takes all of them to deliver a complete vehicle, and I think that's one particular attribute as you think about trying to understand how the year is gonna play out, where the supply base is really capable of performing and ultimately delivering.

So, everything we're hearing is, you know, certainly strong demand, as I said, for Class 8 vocational with the intentions of OEMs to supply that demand. So we stand ready to do that and certainly prepared to support the industry as best we can. Okay, thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Ian Zaffino with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.

Isaac Sellhausen (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good afternoon. This is Isaac Sellhausen on for Ian. Yeah, congrats on a really strong quarter and year. Could you help us understand the expectations for, you know, volume and price mix, maybe in North America on highway for the year? And you know, where do we stand on pricing, you know, as, as we start this year and, and your expectations are implied in guidance? Thanks.

Frederick Bohley III (COO)

Hi, this is Fred. Relative to pricing, and I mean, start really with 2023, you know, we actually realized 540 basis points of price on a year-over-year basis, $155 million of price. And that was really up from our initial guidance assumption, which was $400 million. So we continued, as we progressed through 2023, to pursue price. Really, if you take that and you couple that with, you know, what we did in 2022, you know, we've realized in 24 months, $275 million of price, or, you know, 1,000 basis points of price. As we are looking at 2024, we're currently anticipating approximately 200 basis points of price.

I think, you know, as most of you are aware, you know, over 90% of our North American on-highway end market, you know, our largest end market, is covered by long-term agreements with defined pricing. So, as we progress through these really high inflationary times, we've certainly honored those agreements. But, you know, looking out to 2025, over 60% of the North American on-highway end market will be available to price. So as we've mentioned in previous earnings calls, as OEM prices increase, you know, our value proposition to the end user continues to increase.

You know, so as the vehicle prices continue to increase, whether that's inflationary cost pressure or outside North America, moving up the emissions curve and adding safety features, you know, we are really well positioned to both take advantage of this from a pricing standpoint, but also from a, a market share standpoint.

Isaac Sellhausen (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Tami Zakaria (Head of Machinery/Engineering/Construction Equity Research)

Hi, and good afternoon. How are you? So my question is around the off-highway market. I think the growth expectations in North America versus outside North America for the market is pretty, you know, different, wide, one positive, one negative. So just try to understand what's driving those expectations for each of those end markets?

David Graziosi (Chairman and CEO)

Tami, it's Dave. Appreciate the question there. So take the regions. North America first, as you know, North America's off-highway is largely a energy market.

You know, as we mentioned, I think certainly second half last year, with the continued capital discipline, which is, you know, we would view as very much regulatory and capital markets considerate by end users and generally, I think the energy space, what you are seeing is a continued high level of capital discipline to maximize cash flow and returns. Commodity prices are obviously supportive. As we talked about, we view the market as relatively well equipped and capacitized. New rig builds, at least on the conventional side, very limited at this point, so you're seeing some level of refurbs, some new components going into that particular market, but it's, you know, from our perspective, very well supplied.

And again, as we talked about second half of last year, with that as a backdrop, not expecting much in terms of increased,

... demand there until, you know, there's a higher level of equipment that's consumed, frankly, which is, you know, still in front of us. But in this medium term, really look at a largely a refurb replacement type of market. Outside North America for us is a combination of energy and mining, construction, hauling, et cetera, that continues to be a relatively busy market. Coming into the second half of last year, and certainly fourth quarter, there were some challenges out there in terms of executing against some tenders by the OEMs. So if you think about that in terms of what's actually happening in the underlying market, trying to catch up with some level of demand there. So that's an aspect of 2024 as we start the year.

And again, I think the general overall market macro conditions for our outside North America off-highway business can continue to be relatively strong. So, you know, we'll do our best again to supply. I think some of that, though, gets back to ultimately the broader industry's capability in terms of total component supply meeting demand from a time perspective. So, you know, again, we'll do our best, but we still see that as a relatively strong market.

Tami Zakaria (Head of Machinery/Engineering/Construction Equity Research)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Angel Castillo (Executive Director, Head of US Machinery and Construction Equity Research)

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just, wanted to get a little bit more color. You talked about the 200, basis points of price. If we could just kind of walk that through and, you know, maybe more current sort of the price cost dynamic and what you kind of anticipate from a margin standpoint, then maybe continuing to pull that through the, through the financial statements. You know, you have growth in-- at the sales level, but, ultimately, net income comes down and, and free cash flow seems a little bit lower, year-over-year. So can you just help us understand the, the puts and takes, that are, that are ultimately kind of, impacting each of those pieces?

Frederick Bohley III (COO)

Sure. Angel, this is Fred. From a cost standpoint, you know, our 2024 guide does reflect the increased costs associated with the new UAW collective bargaining agreement, with the majority of those incremental costs associated with the new labor agreement being incurred in 2024. Also, from a material cost standpoint, you know, we are anticipating, you know, higher material costs, principally driven by increased value add in our supply chain, and that's really as a result of increased labor costs within our supply chain. You know, so those are the two primary drivers from a cost standpoint. As you mentioned, price, you know, we're modeling a couple hundred basis points of price, and have, you know, EBITDA basically flat on a year-over-year basis.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Timothy Thein (Senior Analyst covering the Machinery and Packaging sectors)

Thanks. Good afternoon. Fred, I just wanted to go back to the comment you made earlier about the... I think you said 65% of the North American LTSAs will come up for renewal. From memory, that's a much bigger percentage than what I recall. They tend to be more staggered, but from a timing perspective, it's also interesting is it's coming on the front end or, you know, leading up to one, you know, potentially one of the larger percentage increases in terms of what the vehicle costs, you know, are set to increase, just given the emissions. So I guess it's just how you're approaching that. You know, your vehicles and what your transmissions are being put into are set to increase pretty significantly.

So how might that increase or, you know, kind of influence how you approach those, I guess those negotiations?

Frederick Bohley III (COO)

Yeah, Tim, this is Fred. So, you did hear me correctly. So over 60%, you know, of the book of business for North America on-highway end market, which is obviously our largest end market, over 50% of our revenue will be available for price. And there's a reason I obviously called that out. It's while they've been, you know, relatively consistent in the way they've been staggered, you know, they're typically 4-5 years in nature. You know, there are more that will be negotiated in the second half of 2024 for pricing in 2025.

You know, to your comments relative to, you know, to where the market is, where the cost of vehicles are, it's certainly something that, you know, we pay close attention to. You know, ultimately, we price our product for the value that it delivers in the market. And as we've, you know, you know, I think on three or four earnings calls in a row, highlighted that value that we deliver is up significantly because the price of the vehicles are up, you know, and, you know, our, you know, our transmissions, you know, our products make those vehicles run more efficiently. You get more work done in a day, you get from point A to B, you don't have the maintenance costs, so you save on maintenance costs, but you don't have the downtime.

It's a lot easier to train drivers, retain drivers in a tough labor market, and ultimately, you can size fewer vehicles in your fleet. So, we definitely believe that, you know, we're in a position where we have a significant amount of pricing power... and, you know, that will be taken into consideration, as we negotiate new long-term agreements.

Timothy Thein (Senior Analyst covering the Machinery and Packaging sectors)

All right. Thank you, Fred.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Jerry Revich (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yes. Hi, yeah, good afternoon, everyone. I'm wondering, Fred, if you could just say more about the margin outlook for 2024, you know, generally, you know, at the midpoint of sales and EBITDA, like you're looking for pretty close to flattish margins. You spoke about the price assumptions. Can you just flesh out the other moving pieces and, you know, if you folks were to surprise the upside, what would those levers look like?

Frederick Bohley III (COO)

Sure. Sure, Jerry, this is Fred again. You know, really walking through from the engineering, you know, SG&A standpoint, you know, flat to slightly up with just some inflationary pressures. You know, I think to the upside, you know, and I think this gets to Dave's comments earlier, the demand is really strong. We're still in this situation where, you know, can the entire vehicle supply chain, you know, get the proper parts to the OEMs to build? You know, clearly, they're building less over-the-road tractors and are focused on, you know, building where they have strong demand, which fortunate for us is, you know, right in the middle of our core addressable market, medium-duty Class 8 straight truck.

So, I think the upside to margins will be, you know, stronger top-line revenue, and as you know, we have very, very attractive incremental margins. So, that's what will drive the upside. That's unfortunately, you know, not entirely in our control. You know, we'll control what we can, and we'll be positioned to supply our products. But, you know, that's the biggest upside in the guide that we put in front of you guys today.

Jerry Revich (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Timothy Thein (Senior Analyst covering the Machinery and Packaging sectors)

All right, I guess I'm getting a two-for-one here. But maybe I'll just ask, just, Fred, on from the standpoint of product mix, and, you know, with, with defense seeing another outsized growth year, that, that business can carry, you know, the, the margin dynamics can be, quite varied depending on whether to be, you know, selling to the DoD or international, customers. So maybe just a, a word in terms of, of how that, you know, is, is that historically a lot of that, I, I guess, more so on the wheel or on the, track side, would be a headwind to margins. But just how are we thinking about the impact from this, this big growth in defense and the implications just in terms of the overall impact and mix? Thank you.

Frederick Bohley III (COO)

Yeah, Tim, thanks. This is Fred. So as you, as you mentioned, you know, we do have defense, you know, guided up, you know, at a midpoint 34%. You know, and historically, you know, our defense business, especially our track defense to the U.S. government, has been, you know, our lowest margin business, cost plus fixed fee. But as we've continued to expand the business, you know, over half of that track business is being driven by outside North American sales, where it's really a commercial negotiation. So as, you know, as we look at that increased, you know, 34%, certainly don't expect it to be a negative drag on EBITDA margins.

Timothy Thein (Senior Analyst covering the Machinery and Packaging sectors)

Okay, thank you, Fred.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time, and I'd like to turn the floor back over to Chairman and CEO, David Graziosi, for closing comments.

David Graziosi (Chairman and CEO)

Thank you, Camilla. Thank you for your continued interest in Allison and for participating on today's call. Enjoy your evening.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.