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AMC ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS, INC. (AMC)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 results landed ahead of S&P Global consensus on revenue, EPS and EBITDA despite an exceptionally weak industry box office; management emphasized the quarter was a “distorting anomaly” already reversing in April/May with box office roughly doubling YoY .
  • Revenue $862.5M, Adjusted EBITDA $(58.0)M, diluted EPS $(0.47); vs Q1 2024 revenue down 9.3% but EPS improved by $0.15, and per‑patron metrics remained resilient (U.S. admissions revenue per patron a Q1 record at $12.31) .
  • Guidance/tone: management now expects 2025 domestic box office at the high end of its prior +$0.5–$1.0B YoY outlook, and targets positive free cash flow over Apr–Dec 2025; 2025 net capex remains $175–$225M as execution of the “Go Plan” accelerates PLF/XLF upgrades .
  • Near‑term catalysts: April/May box office surge, pricing initiative “50% Off Wednesdays” beginning July 9, and premium format expansion (IMAX/Dolby, XL at AMC, 4DX/ScreenX) to drive attendance mix and per‑patron profitability .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Beat on revenue, EPS, EBITDA versus S&P Global consensus as per‑patron monetization held up; CEO: “Anyone trying to draw…negative conclusions…from the first quarter…is…mistaken” given a booming April/May and stacked slate .
    • Pricing/mix: U.S. admissions revenue per patron hit an all‑time Q1 record of $12.31; contribution margin per patron rose YoY; management highlighted continued strength in per‑patron metrics vs 2019 .
    • Strategic execution: Go Plan momentum—XL at AMC rolled out (50 U.S. locations targeted for 2025, ~250 by end‑2026), expansion of IMAX with Laser, +~25% Dolby Cinema screens, tripling PRIME at AMC; partnership to add 40 4DX and 25 ScreenX auditoriums .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Box office shock: Q1 domestic industry box office (ex‑COVID era) was the lowest since 1996, depressing attendance to 41.9M (down ~10% YoY) and revenue to $862.5M (down 9.3% YoY) .
    • Profitability/FCF: Adjusted EBITDA $(58.0)M vs $(21.2)M LY; net cash from operations $(370.0)M reflecting seasonal working capital and soft box office; net loss widened to $(202.1)M .
    • Liquidity drawdown: Cash fell to $378.7M from $632.3M at FY‑end; management reiterated capex discipline amid need for growth capital to accelerate renovations/format expansion .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q1 2025 Consensus*Surprise*
Revenue ($USD Millions)$951.4 $1,306.4 $862.5 $837.0*+$25.5M / +3.0%*
Net Income ($USD Millions)$(163.5) $(135.6) $(202.1) ——
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.62) $(0.35) $(0.47) $(0.592)*+$0.12* (less loss)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(21.2) $164.8 $(58.0) $(68.7)*+$10.7M*
Net Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)$(188.3) $203.6 $(370.0) ——
  • Notes: YoY revenue −9.3% as disclosed in the 8‑K . Sequential declines reflect seasonality and Q1 box office shock .
  • Asterisked cells are S&P Global consensus/derived comparisons. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Margins (computed from reported figures)

MarginQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Income Margin %(163.5 / 951.4)=−17.2% (135.6 / 1,306.4)=−10.4% (202.1 / 862.5)=−23.4%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %(−21.2 / 951.4)=−2.2% (164.8 / 1,306.4)=12.6% (−58.0 / 862.5)=−6.7%

Segment breakdown

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
U.S. Revenue ($M)$689.1 $617.0
International Revenue ($M)$262.3 $245.5
U.S. Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$(20.2) $(57.4)
International Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$(1.0) $(0.6)
U.S. Attendance (000s)30,490 26,907
International Attendance (000s)16,141 14,996

KPIs

KPIQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Consolidated Attendance (000s)46,631 62,424 41,903
Avg Ticket Price – U.S. ($)$12.19 $12.44 $12.31 (Q1 record)
F&B Per Patron – Consolidated ($)$6.89 $7.15 (Q4 record) $6.76
Contribution Margin Per Patron – Consolidated ($)$13.92 $14.05 $14.33

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Domestic box office vs 2024FY 2025+$0.5B to +$1.0B High end of +$0.5B to +$1.0B Raised to high end
Free Cash FlowApr–Dec 2025—Expect FCF positive over 9 months Introduced
Net CapExFY 2025$175–$225M $175–$225M reiterated Maintained
Premium formats expansion2025–202650–100 XL in 2025; 200–250 XL by 2026; expand IMAX/Dolby/PRIME Reiterated; >600 PLF/XLF now, targeting >1,000; triple PRIME; 50 XL in 2025, ~250 by 2026 Reaffirmed/expanded detail
Pricing initiativeFrom Jul 9, 2025Discount Tuesdays ongoing“50% Off Wednesdays” for AMC Stubs members (base price) New initiative

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Prior-2)Q4 2024 (Prior-1)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
Box office trajectoryRecovery surged H2’24; strong slate ahead 2025 box office +$0.5–$1.0B vs 2024; quarter-over-quarter strength April/May ~2x YoY; 2025 at high end of prior range Improving momentum
Premium formats (PLF/XLF)Announced Go Plan, 50–100 XL in 2025, 200–250 in 2026; more IMAX Laser, Dolby, PRIME Reiterated PLF-led go-to-market >600 PLF/XLF now; path to >1,000; roll out XL and CJ 4DPLEX Accelerating buildout
Loyalty/subscriptionTeased 2025 enhancements Launched Premiere GO tier; A‑List enhancements planned Premiere GO >300k members; A‑List weekly limit 3→4, age 16→13 Engagement deepening
F&B/merchRecord per‑patron; retail popcorn expansion Q4 record F&B per patron $7.15 New SKUs (e.g., Dippin’ Dots), home delivery, craft drink automation pilots; merchandise ~$75M 2025, ~50% margin Mix/pricing innovation
Capex/financial policyCapex $~200M; plan $1.0–$1.5B over 4–7 yrs contingent on EBITDA/capital Balance sheet strengthening; cash $632M 2025 capex $175–$225M; could increase with EBITDA; aim FCF+ Apr–Dec Disciplined, ROI-focused
Windows/industry—Advocated longer theatrical windows; studios re‑embracing theaters Emphasis on slate strength vs Q1 anomaly Constructive backdrop

Management Commentary

  • CEO Adam Aron: “We believe that a dramatic reawakening of the industry‑wide domestic box office has begun… the 2025 January to March [box office] was the lowest… since 1996… [but] April… was double [YoY] and so far in May… running at double” .
  • CFO Sean Goodman: “We anticipate being free cash flow positive for the 9 months ending December 31, 2025… CapEx net of landlord contributions was $42.8M in Q1; 2025 net CapEx expected $175–$225M” .
  • Go Plan expansion: “We expect to grow our premium large format and extra‑large format screens from more than 600 now to more than 1,000… more Dolby Cinema (+~25%), triple PRIME at AMC, and roll out 50+ XL at AMC locations in 2025 (~250 by 2026)” .
  • Per‑patron economics: “U.S. admissions revenue per patron [achieved] an all‑time Q1 record of $12.31” ; “In April, our revenue per patron and our contribution per patron increased even on stronger attendance” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Capital allocation discipline: Capex constrained around $175–$225M; could rise $50–$100M annually contingent on materially higher EBITDA and attractive ROI; pursuing third‑party financing for growth .
  • Free cash flow/seasonality: Company targets positive FCF for Apr–Dec 2025; Q1 working capital outflow amplified by soft box office .
  • Format/seating upgrades: Club Rocker seats lifting top‑theater performance; expansion possible as growth capital allows .
  • F&B innovation: Craft drink automation pilots, expanded bars, home delivery via Uber Eats/DoorDash; merchandise on track for ~$75M in 2025 with ~50% EBITDA drop‑through for half of sales .

Estimates Context

  • Revenue beat: $862.5M actual vs $837.0M consensus (+3.0%); EPS beat: $(0.47) vs $(0.592); Adjusted EBITDA beat: $(58.0)M vs $(68.7)M. Asterisked values from S&P Global.
MetricConsensus*ActualSurprise*
Revenue ($M)837.0*862.5 +$25.5 / +3.0%*
Diluted EPS ($)(0.592)*(0.47) +$0.12*
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)(68.7)*(58.0) +$10.7*
  • Asterisked cells are S&P Global consensus/derived comparisons. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Prior quarters: Q4 2024 revenue $1,306.4B vs $1,295.3B consensus; EPS $(0.18) vs $(0.181); EBITDA $164.8M vs $128.8M (beats on revenue/EBITDA) ; S&P Global consensus: revenue/EBITDA/EPS*.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • April/May data points confirm a sharp rebound post‑Q1, with management guiding to high end of +$0.5–$1.0B 2025 domestic box office growth; setup is constructive for Q2–Q4 comps and estimate revisions higher .
  • Positive FCF targeted for Apr–Dec 2025, aided by stronger slate, pricing initiatives, and per‑patron leverage; watch working capital reversal and cadence of slate‑driven attendance .
  • Mix tailwinds: accelerating PLF/XLF investments and premium seating upgrades should support higher ATP and contribution per patron as blockbuster slate returns .
  • New pricing lever (“50% Off Wednesdays”) and loyalty/A‑List enhancements are designed to drive mid‑week utilization and member engagement without materially diluting premium upsell economics .
  • Liquidity/Balance sheet: cash $378.7M at Q1‑end (seasonal trough); capex remains disciplined at $175–$225M, with potential to scale as EBITDA expands or with third‑party financing .
  • Watch list: cadence of XL/IMAX/Dolby rollouts; 4DX/ScreenX deployment; April–summer box office trajectory; evidence of sequential improvement in Adjusted EBITDA and FCF.
  • Risk checks: industry release windows, macro sensitivity to discretionary spend, and leverage/interest expense remain key variables .

Appendix: Additional context and press releases

  • XL at AMC launched in Kansas City; up to 50 locations in 2025 .
  • CJ 4DPLEX partnership to add 65 total premium auditoriums (40 4DX, 25 ScreenX) by 2027 .
  • Premium formats powered AMC’s biggest 2025 weekend so far (early April), with 33% Saturday attendance in PLF/3D; supports PLF expansion thesis .