AI
AMGEN INC (AMGN)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 was a clean beat: revenue $9.18B (+9% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS $6.02 (+21% YoY), both materially above S&P Global consensus; GAAP EPS rose to $2.65 (+92% YoY) on stronger operating performance . Versus consensus: revenue $8.92B* and EPS $5.28* were expected; actuals were $9.18B and $6.02, respectively, constituting broad beats*.
- Guidance was raised on revenue and nudged up on non‑GAAP EPS, but management lowered GAAP EPS and cut full‑year non‑GAAP operating margin to “~45%” (from ~46%) to fund late‑stage R&D and BD transactions; OI&E trimmed to ~$2.2B .
- Product breadth drove momentum: 15 products hit double‑digit growth; standouts included Repatha (+31% YoY), EVENITY (+32%), TEZSPIRE (+46%), BLINCYTO (+45%), and rare disease drivers UPLIZNA (+91%) and TAVNEOS (+55%). New oncology entrant IMDELLTRA grew 65% QoQ to $134M .
- Key watch items: expected H2 biosimilar erosion for Prolia/XGEVA, Enbrel pressure from 340B mix and Medicare Part D redesign, and inventory timing impacts in parts of rare disease portfolio .
- Near‑term catalysts: raised FY revenue guide, visible pipeline milestones (MariTide Phase 3 enrollment; TEZSPIRE CRSwNP PDUFA Oct 19, 2025; UPLIZNA gMG PDUFA Dec 14, 2025) that can sustain narrative momentum .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Broad-based growth: total revenue +9% to $9.18B; product sales +9% on +13% volume with only −3% price pressure .
- Oncology and inflammation outperformed: BLINCYTO +45% YoY to $384M; TEZSPIRE +46% YoY to $342M; IMDELLTRA $134M with +65% QoQ adoption momentum .
- Management confidence and investment posture: “We’re delivering strong performance…” (CEO Bradway) and stepped-up AI, late-stage R&D, and manufacturing capex to scale for growth .
What Went Wrong
- Enbrel and denosumab headwinds: Enbrel −34% YoY (price and 340B/Part D mix), with continued pressure expected; XGEVA −5% YoY and Prolia −4% YoY, with H2 biosimilar erosion flagged .
- Free cash flow down YoY to $1.9B on deferred 2024 tax payments and higher capex; non-GAAP cost of sales ticked up (17.7% of product sales, +0.2 pts) on profit share/sales mix .
- Margin outlook eased: non‑GAAP operating margin guide lowered to ~45% as R&D and launch investments rise; GAAP EPS outlook reduced versus Q1 guide .
Financial Results
Consolidated Performance vs Prior Quarters
Selected Product Sales Trends
KPIs and Operating Metrics
Results vs S&P Global Consensus
Bolded beats/misses: Q2 2025 revenue and EPS were material beats vs consensus*.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Guidance Changes
Note: Guidance includes estimated impact of implemented tariffs .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO tone: “We’re delivering strong performance and reaching more patients with innovative medicines and biosimilars…” .
- Investment posture: “We are accelerating innovation and productivity through AI… and expect capital expenditures of $2.3B… now expect non‑GAAP operating margin ~45%… non‑GAAP R&D expense to grow over 20% in 2025” .
- Strategic focus areas: Continued interest in rare disease BD and disciplined execution across late‑stage programs .
- Policy perspective: Compounding less relevant for biologic MariTide; supportive of quality frameworks and IP protection .
Q&A Highlights
- MariTide dosing/tolerability: Phase 3 uses multi‑step dose escalation for better GI tolerability while maintaining efficacy; monthly or less‑frequent dosing designed to improve persistence .
- TEZSPIRE COPD confidence: Mechanism distinct from ST2; responder biomarker strategy (eosinophils) supports Phase 3 .
- Biosimilars regulatory landscape: Potential softening of requirements could favor Amgen’s development capabilities, but execution remains technically demanding .
- Obesity market format: Amgen is monitoring oral entrants, but expects MariTide’s dosing profile to be competitive; open to BD on orals and advancing internal approaches .
- Guidance clarifications: Updated FY 2025 outlook with lower operating margin, higher R&D growth (>20%), OI&E trimmed to ~$2.2B; expects WEZLANA/AMGEVITA U.S. sales to fluctuate with no Q3 sales .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 delivered broad beats vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $9.18B vs $8.92B*; non‑GAAP EPS $6.02 vs $5.28*. Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 were also above consensus*.
- Implication: Street models likely need upward revisions for FY revenue and non‑GAAP EPS given raised revenue guide and beat magnitude; margin commentary offsets some EPS upside*.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Beat-and-raise quarter: The combination of top-line and EPS beats plus a raised revenue guide should support positive estimate revisions and near-term sentiment .
- Margin trade-off is deliberate: Lowered operating margin reflects accelerated investment in late-stage assets (MariTide, olpasiran) and BD; this may cap near-term EPS leverage but enhances medium-term growth optionality .
- Product diversity mitigates LOE: Strength across cardio, inflammation, oncology, and rare disease helps offset anticipated H2 denosumab biosimilar erosion and Enbrel pricing/Part D pressures .
- Pipeline catalysts through 2025: TEZSPIRE CRSwNP PDUFA (Oct 19), UPLIZNA gMG PDUFA (Dec 14), MariTide Phase 3 enrollment momentum and additional indications; these events can drive narrative and multiple .
- Watch inventory and mix: Rare disease sales showed inventory timing impacts; MVASI benefited from competitor shortages temporarily; expect normalization and competitive erosion .
- Capital discipline intact: Debt reduction ($1.4B in Q2; $4.3B YTD), FCF generation, capex targeted, and buybacks capped at ≤$500M maintain balance sheet flexibility .
- Tactical positioning: Maintain exposure ahead of obesity and cardio outcomes milestones; monitor H2 biosimilar impacts and margin progression as investments ramp .