Ameriprise Financial - Q2 2023
July 27, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Welcome to the Q2 2023 earnings call. My name is Chris, and I'll be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. During the question-and-answer session, if you have a question, please press star one on your touchtone phone. As a reminder, the conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Alicia Charity. Alicia, you may begin.
Alicia Charity (SVP of Investor Relations)
Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to Ameriprise Financial's second quarter earnings call. On the call with me today are Jim Cracchiolo, Chairman and CEO, and Walter Berman, Chief Financial Officer. Following their remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions. Turning to our earnings presentation materials that are available on our website, on slide two, you will see a discussion of forward-looking statements. Specifically, during the call, you will hear references to various non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe provide insight into the company's operations. Reconciliation of non-GAAP numbers to their respective GAAP numbers can be found in today's materials and on our website. Some statements that we make on this call may be forward-looking, reflecting management's expectations about future events and overall operating plans and performance. These forward-looking statements speak only as of today's date and involve a number of risks and uncertainties.
A sample list of factors and risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from forward-looking statements can be found in our second quarter 2023 earnings release, our 2022 annual report to shareholders, and our 2022 10-K report. We make no obligation to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements. On slide 3, you see our GAAP financial results at the top of the page for the second quarter. Below that, you see our adjusted operating results, which management believes enhances the understanding of our business by reflecting the underlying performance of our core operations and facilitates a more meaningful trend analysis. Many of the comments that management makes on the call today will focus on adjusted operating results. With that, I'll turn it over to Jim.
James Cracchiolo (Chairman and CEO)
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining today's call. As you saw in our press release, Ameriprise overall delivered a strong second quarter to round out a very good first half. Given our complement of businesses, we consistently generate good returns and strong earnings. Advice & Wealth Management continues to lead our growth, where we had another quarter of solid client engagement and flows. We also saw good earnings from our bank, reflecting our ability to create a sustainable and attractive revenue stream in this interest rate environment. In our asset management business, we continue to experience headwinds in this environment and remain focused on adjusting appropriately. In terms of the market environment, the S&P 500 and international equity markets have rallied more recently through the end of July. They were only up 2% year-over-year on average for the quarter.
Fixed income markets remain unfavorable, particularly in Europe. While inflation has come down, it's still above the Fed's targeted rate. As we saw yesterday, the Fed increased 25 basis points and said it would continue to assess additional information in determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return to a 2% inflation rate. With that as a backdrop, Ameriprise continues to benefit from our diversified business mix, as well as higher interest rates in our bank and certificate companies. Assets under management and administration increased nicely, up 9% to $1.3 trillion, reflecting our organic growth in positive markets. Total adjusted operating net revenue was up 10% to $3.8 billion.
The combination of strong revenue growth, particularly from our spread business, as well as well-managed expenses, drove earnings to $807 million, up 23%, with EPS up 30% to $7.44. Our return on equity was outstanding and reached a new record of 51%, a level that few financial firms have achieved. Now let's turn to business highlights. In wealth management, we delivered another excellent quarter as we served clients well with goal-based advice and deliver a highly satisfying experience. We continue to drive very good asset growth with total client assets up to $833 billion and total client flows of $9.4 billion, up 10% year-over-year. Our client acquisition growth was also strong, especially in the 500,000-5 million client range.
This is an area where we've consistently had good momentum. It's a key growth opportunity for us. We're leveraging our strategic investments to help advisors engage clients and prospects, provide a great client experience, and run highly successful and efficient practices. Our fully integrated technology suite streamlines many of our advisors' administrative tasks and frees up their time to go deeper with clients and to navigate the complexities within their financial situations. For example, we introduced an important capability that enables advisors to generate highly personalized presentations centered on client goal achievement. Since the launch, it has helped to build on our already strong client satisfaction net flows and practice growth for our advisors who are incorporating it into their practices. It's reduced meeting prep time as much as 70% and allows more time for client acquisition.
We're also beginning to use AI and analytics to further enhance how we engage and work with clients. With AI, we can serve up real-time information to help advisors identify a possible next best opportunity for clients based on their needs.... backed by our exceptional support, advisor satisfaction, retention, and growth are all excellent. Ameriprise advisors consistently have some of the highest productivity growth in the business. In the second quarter, it increased nicely again, up 7% to $874,000 per advisor. We're also incorporating the use of data and analytics in how we identify productive advisors who are a good fit to recruit to the firm and more likely to make the switch. It was another strong quarter for recruitment, with the addition of 99 experienced advisors. We're consistently bringing in large, highly productive advisor practices from across the industry.
In the spring, I spent time with our top 10% of advisors, both tenured at Ameriprise and more recently, experienced advisors who have joined us. They repeatedly shared that our advanced capabilities and technology, combined with our excellent leadership, coaching, and marketing support, gives them a tremendous advantage in how they serve clients and run successful practices. They are very proud to affiliate with Ameriprise and energized about the direction of the company and the opportunities in front of us. During the quarter, clients remained cautious, seeking yield as they continue to maintain higher balances in cash-oriented products. Cash continued to increase as clients continued to hold cash, and we ended the quarter with about $70 billion in cash and cash equivalents.
Wrap assets under management increased 14% to over $450 billion, reflecting positive flows and market appreciation that occurred at the end of the quarter. The more recent increase in markets will be a benefit as we go through the quarter. For the first time since the beginning of the year, we saw signs in June that clients are starting to move some funds back into the market, which brings me to the bank. Ameriprise Bank continues to perform well, with assets growing to nearly $22 billion. It's a strong complement to our business and an attractive way to gain spread revenue in this rate environment. Bank and certificate balances grew over 50% to $33 billion. The cash balances in these accounts are very rational today, and we feel comfortable with our position.
We will continue to build out our banking capabilities and are in the process of introducing other savings products later this year. This will help advisors further deepen client relationships and bring in more assets from other banking institutions. With our latest research, in addition to our core client segments, we found that the Ameriprise value proposition and brand are very appealing to high-net-worth investors, as well as millennials who are hungry for advice and seeking guidance from advisors who truly understand them and their priorities. These are market segments we're looking to serve more in the future. This was also reinforced by the complement of external accolades and recognition we continue to earn. The way we work with clients defines Ameriprise, and I believe our reputation is a competitive advantage. During the quarter, Ameriprise was named by Kiplinger's readers as the overall winner in the wealth management category.
We earned the highest ratings for each of the four criteria: the trustworthiness of our advisors, the quality of financial advice provided, the likeliness to recommend the firm to others, and we earned the highest rating in overall satisfaction. Ameriprise also ranked on Newsweek's magazine 2023 Most Trustworthy Companies in America list for the second consecutive year. We earned top performer recognition in "Understands Me and Shares My Values" from Hearts & Wallets. Speaking of values, Ameriprise culture is another very important positive. Advisors who have joined us with decades in the business tell us that our company is unique and not like any other they've been part of. They're impressed by things like our supportive growth culture and their accessibility to senior leadership.
Finally, in terms of profitability for wealth management, it was another strong quarter across the board. That includes margin, which reached a new record of 31.2%. Moving to Retirement and Protection, we have high-quality, well-risk managed books. We're generating strong, consistent earnings of 13%, driven by the repositioning of our investment portfolio last year, given the rate climate. Our free cash flow and return on capital remain excellent. The team is concentrated on accumulation products that align with our clients' needs and the business. In our life business, we're focused on our variable universal life and disability products that are appropriate for this environment. Protection sales were up nicely, increasing 18%, with the majority of sales in higher-margin accumulation VUL products. In variable annuities, our structured product continues to attract strong interest, combining with our variable annuities without living benefits.
Sales are down from a year ago, in part due to the decision to exit guarantees. Here again, we're using intelligent document processing and robotics to make processes more efficient, things like automating our processes and underwriting decisions. We're seeing the benefit in the pickup in sales. As we discussed, we feel good about our product portfolio, both for clients and the business, which consistently delivers good returns. Asset management, as you know, we manage the business prudently. Like other active managers, we're facing reduced flows in this environment. The business continues to operate well and generates good fees. We're adjusting for headwinds accordingly. In terms of investment performance, we continue to have excellent longer-term performance in equities, fixed income, and asset allocation strategies, with over 75% of our funds above the median for the 5-year and over 85% for the 10-year period.
Our one-year performance has improved across the board. This includes some of our larger franchises, including in UK equities, where we're benefiting from our quality positioning. In fixed income, given our strength in credit. In terms of flows, I'll start with global retail, where we continue to experience a level of outflows. In North America, we remain in net outflows, we had nice improvement in fixed income. In fact, we are better than the industry in taxable bond. Meanwhile, we continue to see outflow pressures in equities, largely from lower gross sales as redemptions have improved. We continue to focus our advisor segmentation strategy to drive good engagement in North America. In EMEA, retail flows in both the UK and continental Europe remain under pressure.
In institutional, we were in net inflows, excluding legacy insurance partner flows, as we garnered nice wins in high yield and investment-grade credit that more than offset large redemptions in LDI strategies, given the market dislocation. I'd like to give you a brief update on our EMEA acquisition and executing the integration in Europe. I wanted you to know that it does take time due to the complexity of the legal entity structures as well as regulatory and employment considerations. We made it through a number of important steps, and we have now moved to the next level of consolidation, including the co-location of our teams to our existing real estate and the near completion of some of the major technology migration work. Given the environment, we're taking a very focused look across the business globally to further reduce expenses.
This includes identifying and stopping less growth-driven activities and also redeploying resources where we see opportunities to support our margin. In summary, we're controlling what we can control and making the necessary changes to adjust in this environment. Reflecting on the firm overall, Ameriprise delivered a strong first half of the year and we're well positioned to continue to navigate and grow. Our complement of businesses provides nice contributions and synergies. We consistently generate good, appropriate earnings in total and good cash flow to invest and return to shareholders at attractive levels. We returned $638 million of earnings to shareholders in the quarter, which represented nearly 80% of our earnings. In addition, as you saw, our board approved a new $3.5 billion share repurchase authorization that reflects the strength of the business.
Across the firm, we continue to make good investments in our businesses, as always, we are sharply focused on execution. While we manage expenses very well, we will be looking for additional expense opportunities as we move into 2024 to adjust to the environment. From a people perspective, our team is highly engaged. In fact, in the quarter, Forbes magazine named Ameriprise one of America's best large employers. The list ranks the 500 U.S. companies most highly recommended as a top place to work. With that, I'll turn things over to Walt to provide his perspective in more detail on the quarter, then we'll take your questions.
Walter Berman (CFO)
Thank you. As Jim said, results this quarter continued to demonstrate the strength of the Ameriprise value proposition, as adjusted EPS increased 30% to $7.44. Results reflect wealth management, core, and cash business momentum, as well as continued expense discipline. In total, our wealth management business grew to 68% of the company's earnings, up from 56% a year ago, as a result of a 49% growth in wealth management earnings. Asset Management faced headwinds similar to the industry in terms of flows and fixed income market declines. Retirement & Protection Solutions delivered good 13% earnings growth, primarily from our decision to reposition the investment portfolio late last year. Across the firm, we continue to manage expenses tightly relative to the revenue opportunity within each segment.
While we continue to make investments in the bank and other growth initiatives, particularly in wealth management, we are taking a disciplined approach on discretionary expenses across our businesses. Excluding mark-to-market impacts on share-based compensation expense, G&A was up only 4%. G&A in the first half of 2022 was unusually low as a result of the pandemic. Our G&A expenses remain on track with our expectations. Balance sheet fundamentals remain strong. Our portfolio is well-positioned, our hedging remains highly effective, and we have strong capital and liquidity positions. This allowed us to return $638 million of capital to shareholders as a strong return of 79% of our operating earnings. Let's turn to slide 6. Assets under management and administration ended the quarter at $1.3 trillion, up 9%.
AUMA benefited from strong client flows and equity market appreciation, partially offset by lower fixed income markets. Revenue growth was strong at 10% from higher interest earnings and cumulative benefit of client net inflows, with average equity markets up only 2%. The impact of 6% equity market appreciation in June will be reflected in our third quarter AUM results, given the billing of our wrap business is based on beginning-of-the-month balances. Pre-tax earnings increased 24% from last year, with meaningful benefits from strong client flows, higher interest rates, and well-managed expenses. Let's turn to individual segment performance, beginning with Wealth Management on slide 7. Wealth Management client assets increased 13% to $833 billion, driven by strong organic growth in client flows, along with higher equity markets.
As you are aware, there has been significant volatility since Q1 2022, which we have navigated well. Our client and wrap assets have remained consistent with our industry peers over this period. Our client flows continue to be strong at $9.4 billion, up 10% from last year. Client money has gone into a combination of wrap and non-advisory accounts as clients continue to be in a defensive posture. Our flexible model and broad offerings allow advisors and clients to pivot as market and client preferences shift. The money stays within the system, gives us potential upside going forward. Revenue per advisor reached $874,000 in the quarter, up 7% from the prior year, from high spread revenue, enhanced productivity, and business growth. Turning to slide 8, I'd like to provide an update on client cash levels.
Our client cash balances, comprised of cash sweep and certificates, have returned to more historic levels at $42 billion, which translate to about 5% of total client assets. The financial benefit from cash remains unchanged, despite a lower volume of cash, as we have seen a significant lift in the interest rate earned at the bank and certificate business. Our fee yields have increased nearly 350 basis points from a year ago and picked up 40 basis points sequentially, resulting in very strong interest earnings growth. I would like to note that we continue to see new money flows into money markets and brokered CDs, albeit at a lower level in June, which brought our total cash level to $70 billion. This creates a significant redeployment opportunity as markets normalize for clients to put money back to work in wrap and other products on our platform.
While there is some seasonality with cash levels, particularly with tax payments in March and April, cash remains an important component of the client's asset allocation. Like others in the industry, balances are stabilizing. Our sweep cash has an average size of $7,000 per account, and 65% of the aggregate cash is now in accounts under $100,000, and we have seen a very limited movement out of these accounts. In the quarter, we moved approximately $1 billion from off-balance sheet cash onto the bank's balance sheet. We continue to evaluate the opportunity to bring additional balances onto the bank balance sheet as we move forward. Lastly, we continue to manage our investment portfolios prudently. Our bank portfolio is AAA rated with a 3.4-year duration.
The overall yield on the portfolio is 4.6% and rising, with the new money yield on investments in the second quarter of 6%. Our certificate company portfolio is highly liquid, with over half of the portfolio in cash, governments, and agencies. It is AA+ rated on average with a 1-year duration. As I noted last quarter, the portfolio yield lagged the client crediting rates as new money moved into this business. This quarter, the portfolio yield increased 33 basis points. In total, the certificate company portfolio is now yielding 5.5%, with new purchases in the quarter at that level as well. On slide 9, we delivered extremely strong results in wealth management on all fronts. Profitability increased 49% in the quarter, with strong organic growth and the benefit of the higher interest rates.
Pre-tax operating margin reached a new high of 31.2%, up 730 basis points year-over-year, and up 60 basis points sequentially. As I mentioned before, the benefit from the June market appreciation of over 6% will be a tailwind for quarter three results, given we bill our wrap business based on the beginning of the month balances. Adjusted operating expenses increased 3%, with distribution expenses up 1%, reflecting higher asset balances. Consistent with our expectations, G&A is up 9% in the quarter. This is off a very low base last year, given the impact of the pandemic, and we continue to make investments for growth. We expect AWM full year 2023 G&A growth to be in the mid-single digits. Let's turn to asset management on slide 10.
We are managing the business well through a challenging environment that is impacting the industry. Total AUM increased 3% to $617 billion, primarily from higher equity markets, partially offset by lower fixed income markets. Asset management, like other active managers, was in outflows in the quarter. Reinvested dividends were $2 billion lower in the current quarter. Underlying net new sales were fairly consistent to last year. Like others, We experienced pressure from global market volatility and a risk-off investor sentiment. Investment performance has been another critical area of focus, and we are seeing improvement, including in fixed income strategies. Overall, 5 and 10-year performance remains very strong, and as Jim said, we had improvement in the 1-year numbers. On slide 11, you can see asset management financial results reflecting the market environment.
As anticipated, earnings declined to $162 million as a result of deleveraging, net outflows, and lower performance fees in the quarter. The margin was down sequentially to 30%. Importantly, we continue to manage the areas we can control. Expenses remain well managed. Total expenses declined 2%, with G&A up only 2%. As Jim said, given the environment, we are taking a very focused look across the business globally to further reduce expenses. This includes identifying and stopping less growth-focused activities and redeploying resources where we can see an opportunity to support our margin. Let's turn to slide 12. Retirement & Protection Solutions continued to deliver good earnings and free cash flow generation, reflecting the high quality of the business.
In the quarter, pre-tax adjusted operating earnings was $189 million, up 13% from the prior year, primarily as a result of higher investment yields from the portfolio repositioning we executed last year. Earnings in the current year were unfavorably impacted by $7 million from a model update resulting from a system conversion and timing of earnings recognition for payout annuities, which is expected to normalize. We continue to view normalized annual earnings of $800 million as a reasonable expectation for this business. Overall sales declined 10% related to our decision to discontinue sales of variable annuities with living benefit riders a year ago. Protection sales improved and remained concentrated in high-margin asset accumulation VUL, which now represents over one-third of the total insurance in force. Let's move to the balance sheet on slide 13.
Our balance sheet fundamentals remain strong and our diversified, high-quality investment portfolio remains well positioned. In total, the average credit rating of the portfolio is AA, with only 1% of the portfolio in below investment-grade securities. VA hedge effectiveness remained very strong at 98%. Our diversified business model benefits from significant and stable free cash flow contributions from all of the business segments. This supports the consistent and differentiated level of capital return to shareholders. During the quarter, we returned $638 million to shareholders and still ended the quarter with $1.3 billion of excess capital and $2.1 billion of holding company available liquidity. We remain committed to continuing to return capital to shareholders and announced a new $3.5 billion share repurchase authorization through September 30, 2025. With that, we'll take your questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press star one on your touchtone phone. If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press star one again. If you're using a speakerphone, you may need to pick up the handset first before pressing the numbers. Once again, if you have a question, please press star one on your touchtone phone. The first question is from Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Alexander Blostein (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Hey, good morning, everybody. Thanks for the question. Maybe we could start with a question on AWM. I want to zone in on kind of the interplay between net new asset growth, Jim, that you talked about, and cash. To your point, lots of capital, obviously sitting on the sidelines in money market funds, treasuries, and as Fed Funds peaks, you know, it's likely that some of that cash is going to make its way into investment products. What are your expectations for AWM net new asset growth into the second half, particularly within advisory?
At the same time, do you think any of that reallocation of cash could put incremental pressure on the $30 billion of brokerage sweep balances, which I think were down about 10% sequentially, or are they pretty, kind of trophy, you know, sort of at operational levels at this point? As part of that, maybe just an update on kind of where that $30 billion sits in July as well.
Walter Berman (CFO)
Okay. Alex, I think we've continued to have very good client flows quarter to quarter. You know, this quarter, they were up 10% from last year, but remember, in the second quarter, you always have some adjustment because of tax payments. If you look at even where we had some of the cash sorting in the second quarter, a significant amount was due to those tax payments coming out in April, and that also then hits your client net flows on a consistent basis, like the cash. Having said that, I would say we continue to see that client flow activity being good. Our client engagement is good. To the point you just referenced that we mentioned, you know, a consistent level has gone more into cash as a holding because of the current yield, right?
This market has maintained itself a bit better than people expected. I think there was a surprise about how the market has climbed so much. It's starting to broaden a bit rather than just based on a few stocks.
James Cracchiolo (Chairman and CEO)
If that does continue, and there's a settlement in a sense of even fixed income yields feeling like they're not gonna continue to rise at this point, there might be a shift back, as we're beginning to see, into fixed income products other than cash, you know, for a longer duration, as well as in equities. Now, where does that money come from? Our belief is that, you know, we've never held this amount of cash balances before, right? Seventy billion is up to, like, 9% of our total assets here, and some of that will come back from those positional cash areas. Regarding the sweep per se, we all hold a certain level of cash in those accounts because of, you know, usage, just like a checking account and certain things like that.
We're not thinking that a large amount or, you know, a significant amount will come back. In fact, we see the cash sorting slowing as we go down through the beginning of the third quarter here. My belief is it'll come more from positional cash and because of the size of the balances we're maintaining. Now, I don't have a perfect crystal ball, but when money comes back in, then more is actually held in a sweep for transactional activity that occurs. That's really how we're thinking.
Alexander Blostein (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
I gotcha. That's helpful. Any update on where that 30 is in July, just tactically?
James Cracchiolo (Chairman and CEO)
Well, in July, yes, we saw it has slowed the way we anticipated. We're just observing now. We feel comfortable with the slowing that we're seeing.
Alexander Blostein (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay, great. My second question, just around the asset management dynamics that you described. Obviously, it sounds like you're adjusting the expense base to the, you know, sort of headwinds we're seeing across the industry. I mean, maybe put a little more granularity about kind of what that means. What are your expectations for G&A growth within the asset management business for the second half? It sounds like that'll continue into 2024. I guess bigger picture, you know, flow's a challenge, that's been the story for some time. But the markets, to your point earlier, are up, right? The revenue base could actually grow despite the flow challenges. How does that inform this quarter, kind of, you know, G&A reallocation dynamics?
Could G&A be sort of flattened down even in that scenario, or the upward market will just naturally put some pressure on the cost base?
James Cracchiolo (Chairman and CEO)
What we're really focused on is I think if you looked at the second quarter, G&A was actually down 2%, but because of the share price appreciation and the plans, et cetera, it ended up 2%, but the underlying was actually down. We expect that to continue. We're taking a much more concerted effort now that we've gone through some of the major integration activities that we had to do in Europe. Even though that's not complete, now we can take a more holistic view of our global expense base, which we are across all areas, and we think there is some good opportunity for us to really target for reduction in expenses as we move forward in through 2024, and that's really our focus.
Alexander Blostein (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Great. Super helpful. Thanks, guys.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Brennan Hawken with UBS. Your line is open.
Brennan Hawken (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I'd like to start on the pending Comerica deal. Can we get an update there? You know, are the assets still around $18 billion, or has that changed due to, you know, market tailwinds or otherwise? Is this base of assets similar to other bank deals that we've seen, where there's more of a bias to brokerage than advisory, and or cash allocations kind of similar to what you have in AWM?
Walter Berman (CFO)
As Walter, as it relates to Comerica, is totally on track, and the activity levels and certainly the assets that we announced at the when we consummate the arrangement is on track also. Its characterization, yes, cash is a component, but it's within the ranges of the transaction. We feel very comfortable with it, and we're targeting for the fourth quarter.
Brennan Hawken (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay. hasn't really changed from where.
Walter Berman (CFO)
On track.
Brennan Hawken (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Got it. Perfect. Okay, thank you. Have you as we start to see the sort of fluid environment and the forward look for rates and with the potential for lower rates as we move into 2024, maybe I was hoping for an update on the maturity profile of the CDs within the certificate company. How are you thinking about managing those balances and maybe either, you know, pulling back on rate or leaning in, depending on the outlook and the idea that some of those rates and that funding would be locked in a potentially declining rate environment?
Walter Berman (CFO)
If you mentioned the certificate, I would probably focus more on the bank, because the bank is really where we have now the advantage of investing and having duration. As you've seen, our yield right now is 4.6. We certainly see that increasing as we have maturities and everything. We feel quite comfortable that as the environment, I don't know if it's gonna go up, don't know if it's gonna go down or stay the same, but we are well positioned to have that stability of earnings there. That the yield that we see at the bank, which is the majority of where we've gone out under for investing, will prevail as we look over the near term. We're in very good position from that standpoint.
Brennan Hawken (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Yeah. No, I, I totally appreciate that, and I hear you. I was more thinking about managing on the cost side of it.
James Cracchiolo (Chairman and CEO)
On the certificate side, as we would say, we sort of match as sort of like based on the yield we provide for those things. We sort of look to sort of keep a certain spread on that based on when they, you know, the money coming in or where we look at it when it's matured.
Walter Berman (CFO)
The spread, as I indicated, increased because obviously our investments are catching up with the, the rate, it's short duration, it's 1 year. From that standpoint, we will adjust it both from the rate, the client rate, crediting rate, and certainly our investments. We feel very comfortable with the spread there as it's incorporated.
Brennan Hawken (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Great. The spread is durable, you know, in both declining environments as well as rising environments?
Walter Berman (CFO)
Oh, yes. Yes, we will maintain a certain degree of spread, but obviously adjust as the rates go up or down, right?
Brennan Hawken (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Great. Thank you for taking my questions.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Erik Bass with Autonomous Research. Your line is open.
Erik Bass (Lead U.S. Life Insurance Analyst and U.S. Director of Research)
Hi. Thank you. For asset management, do you still think a 31%-35% margin is the right target to think about near term? Given the expense actions you've talked about, as well as the benefit from rising markets, do you think you could get back to that level in the second half of this year?
James Cracchiolo (Chairman and CEO)
I can't listen, I can't predict the third quarter per se, but we're not changing that targeted rate, and we definitely believe that we can be within that targeted rate. I can't tell you about, you know, a quarter, but I would probably say, yeah, we feel comfortable with that as we go to the second half, but into 2024.
Erik Bass (Lead U.S. Life Insurance Analyst and U.S. Director of Research)
Perfect. Can you update us on the plans to launch a brokered CD product and any other bank products for the second half of the year, and what your expectations are for the type of assets that those could attract?
James Cracchiolo (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah. We did a soft launch, a brokered CD, in the second quarter. That's starting to take hold here. We also put out a base savings product. Again, that's beginning to take hold. We have plans for the end of the third quarter to actually put some incentives type activity there to bring in new cash from outside the firm. Also a preferred type of savings product in the fourth quarter. We're, you know, sort of getting how they are positioned on the platform and then how we sort of roll that out from soft launches, et cetera.
Yes, we will have a set of those type of savings products as we go through the rest of the year into next year, that we will then target to bring in more cash externally.
Erik Bass (Lead U.S. Life Insurance Analyst and U.S. Director of Research)
Thank you. How would you sort of tier the margin expectation on that relative to the other cash products or certificates?
James Cracchiolo (Chairman and CEO)
What I would say, first of all, you got to separate the sweep, which is a different animal from various savings products, but I'll let Walter, you know.
Walter Berman (CFO)
The margin, as you know, we have a certainly a reserve account that at the search, and the margin in the bank is similar. It's from it's a little higher, with the margin is good. We're competitive on each one of the products as we look at the CD, and obviously, the rates there are certainly being driven by regional banks and others, we will remain competitive. The margins there are lower as you would expect.
Erik Bass (Lead U.S. Life Insurance Analyst and U.S. Director of Research)
Got it. Thank you.
Walter Berman (CFO)
Ranges. Right.
Erik Bass (Lead U.S. Life Insurance Analyst and U.S. Director of Research)
Yeah. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Suneet Kamath with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Suneet Kamath (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Thanks. Good morning. Just going back to the bank for a second. Our understanding is that you'll have, I think, $1.4 billion of assets sort of maturing and rolling into new assets in the second half, and then a similar amount in the first half of next year. Would it be possible to get sort of the current yields on those assets, just so we can kind of think through when that reinvestment occurs, how much upside you guys would have?
Walter Berman (CFO)
Yes. Yeah, I would say you're right. You saw where it is today, in 4_=6 range. With that, we're getting in the ranges 5, high 5s, low 6s, that should go up. Yeah, I can't tell you where rates are going to be, but if the rates stay where they are, that should move around 50 basis points, 40–50 basis points by the end of the year.
Suneet Kamath (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
You're saying an incremental 40–50 basis points?
Walter Berman (CFO)
Yeah. Yeah. You'll get to around five. Yeah.
Suneet Kamath (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Got it. Okay. I guess.
Walter Berman (CFO)
Again, I just want to clarify, that's if rates stay the way they are today, okay? Spread.
Suneet Kamath (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Yeah, got it. Okay. Then I guess you're talking about this now $70 billion cash number, and I think last quarter that was maybe $60 billion. obviously, there's a portion of that, that you guys have kind of in that $42 billion range. As we think about that incremental $28 billion, I know some of that's in other companies' products, but what's a reasonable expectation in terms of how much of those assets you guys think you could ultimately have in your own products?
James Cracchiolo (Chairman and CEO)
I think what I would say is, I think a good amount could come back, but not just into our own savings-type products, but more importantly, into the wrap type of business again. If you recollect, before the sort of period where people got a little more concerned, you know, we had roughly a majority of our client flows going into wrap. I believe right now we're at a sort of a low point of the amount of cash being deployed into wrap, and I do believe part of that went to positional cash. That positional cash will start to come in.
Remember, I think the investments in fixed income is much lower than it's been in a long time because of the yields going up on duration and people not wanting to get whipsawed. So that money will come back in, and that does go into wrap accounts as well, because it's more of a balanced portfolio that they utilize.
Suneet Kamath (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Got it. If I could just sneak one more in. Jim, I thought your comment about high net worth and millennial opportunities sounded like it was new. Is that opportunity something that you can attack sort of organically, or are there capabilities that you'd need to acquire in order to capitalize on that growth opportunity? Thanks.
James Cracchiolo (Chairman and CEO)
No, Suneet. We're already Look, for instance, we're already bringing in high net worth clients nicely, but we have not made that a more concerted effort in the franchise yet. But now we are putting more deploying around that. We do have most of the capabilities, if not all of them. I mean, there's always some bells and whistles we add, but we have added to a product platform, alternative platform, et cetera. The advice part of what we have actually works very well for a high net worth client.
What we found is when we did our research, that we are considered up there for high net worth clients or prospects, similar to any of the private houses out there that cater to them or the major wirehouses that cater to them. We don't have a disadvantage there, and it's one that we're building up the focus of our advisors to really understand and see that so that they can target it more.
On the millennial side, we've made a lot of investments in our digital capabilities and the engagement way of doing that, that we will also be really starting to focus more on for bringing in younger clients, either through some of the younger advisors we bring, but more even direct in, in some of our things, because we have remote channels set up to work with clients, that way. I feel very good about those opportunities giving us further expansion efforts.
Suneet Kamath (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Got it. Okay, thank you.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Michael Anagnostakis (Vice President / Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning. It's Michael Anagnostakis on for Steven. I just wanted to circle back to the rate sensitivity picture here. I guess, given the shape of the curve, maybe you could provide some updated color on your rate sensitivity. Can you help us size the impact to your earnings from rate cuts on the static balance sheet? How do you expect your deposit betas to differ on the way down versus the way up, given your certificate percentage and low-cost sweep deposits funding the bank? Thank you.
Walter Berman (CFO)
Again, from the standpoint on rates going down, we do have, since we are now having some substantial amounts in the bank, that would give us insulation from that standpoint. For the portions that would be subject to short term or the Fed Fund reductions, on that basis, you can imagine it's a straight calculation for every percentage going down. You, it's factored into our analysis, and we've seen the cycle going up and going down. The mathematics are on that basis, we have $6 billion–$7 billion sitting in on our balance sheet. You can do the calculation on a 1% change. As it relates to the certs, the certs really do adjust.
It's a matter like on the way up, we lose them until it catches up, and the way down, we'll gain because we'll have the investments there, and we certainly have the liquidity to cover it. Therefore, it's a positive to us on the cert side when it's going down because of the investments, and just like we've had the catch-up situation now when it's been going up.
Michael Anagnostakis (Vice President / Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. I did want to flip on to expenses here. I guess, you know, how should we be thinking about long-term G&A growth for the firm, given some of the reduction efforts you're undertaking, a more fully funded bank, and a progress on BMO? If you could help us think about the growth between the wealth segment and the firm as a whole, that would be great. Thank you.
James Cracchiolo (Chairman and CEO)
Let me start, and then Walter can complement. Overall, for the firm, when we talk about G&A per se, I would say it's going to be relatively flat. you know, remember, you got merit increase and other things that are part of that, but it'll be relatively flat overall based on what we're looking to do. If you think about where there may be a little more versus a little less, it'll may be a little more in the AWM because of the growth of that business and maybe, and a bit less on the asset management side, meaning that there'll be expense reductions.
Overall, if I look at that across the firm, including all the various groups, it will be relatively flat, absorbing the inflationary expenses that occur, while we continue to make good investments in the business.
Thomas Gallagher (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
The next question is from Thomas Gallagher with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
Good morning. First question is, why did Ameriprise withdraw its application earlier this month, to convert to a state-chartered industrial bank and a national trust bank? Have there been any changes in regulation or rules related to your current structure or Can you give some perspective on that?
Walter Berman (CFO)
I think it is a matter of certainly the situation as you look at the FDIC board and what they felt about the with the regional bank situation, would they really want to now expand into a state? We just felt the probability was not there. We're quite comfortable with the FDIC at this stage. We withdrew it rather, you know, and it was just. Again, they were working on decisioning it, and we just felt that we would withdraw based on the clients and circumstances. We still have the, again, the capabilities, so it doesn't really affect us, but that's the story. With the regional bank and the other situations, the environment just we felt was not there.
Thomas Gallagher (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Walter, do you expect there to be any changes on capital, where you might have to hold more, or is that less certain? Just any perspective on that?
Walter Berman (CFO)
Yeah. From our standpoint, as part of our steady state planning, certainly, the differential, no. If anything, you probably would have a tick up on the state situation, but and we certainly understood that. No, the short answer to the question is no. We do not because of this situation with the state or with the FDIC. We do not anticipate, other than as the Fed is evaluating, right? Based on the situations that they've seen. We would be just like anybody else in what's the size of our balance sheet, impacted for that level.
Thomas Gallagher (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Gotcha. Now, next question: Just can you comment on any updates on risk transfer on the RPS side? Is that still? You know, it sounded like you went through a more thorough process. You emerged from it saying you didn't like the pricing, yet you're seeing a lot of competitors in the life insurance space do further risk transfer deals. That trend continues, and it's pretty good pricing, actually, on some of the recent deals. Curious if that's changed at all your perspective, whether the competitor pricing or where do you stand on overall risk transfer? Thanks.
Walter Berman (CFO)
I think, look, more importantly, where we stand with holding, certainly we feel very comfortable with what we have and as we look at it. Then yes, certainly, evaluated situations. As we've always said, we've looked at it. Many of the stuff in the past has been distressed. Yes, we've seen some changes there, and certainly, we are not not going outbound, but certainly inbounds come in, we evaluate them. We are very comfortable where we are right now.
Thomas Gallagher (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Now, would you say nothing's really changed on your view that there's still too wide of a bid-ask spread relative to what you think the value of your book is versus the type of pricing that's out there?
Walter Berman (CFO)
Certainly, we've seen changes shifting with the books that are going, but, again, we don't do a detailed analysis on every action. We'll evaluate facts and circumstances as it relates to us.
James Cracchiolo (Chairman and CEO)
Yeah, I mean, we haven't gone through an in-depth of what's recently occurred and what may happen in the market. I think from our perspective right now, we have a very solid business there. We have a very low risk profile for that business. As Walter said, it's going to continue to generate roughly $200 million of PTI a quarter, $800 million for a year. Most of that is free cash flow for us. You know, that's how we think about it. You know, if there are opportunities that arise, we'll always have to entertain them.
Thomas Gallagher (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay, thanks.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Craig Siegenthaler with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Craig Siegenthaler (Managing Director and the North American Head of Diversified Financials)
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Next quarter, you're going to have your annual insurance liability unlocking exercise, and last year resulted in a large negative adjustment with the bear market effect on the variable annuity book. This year, markets are up a lot, interest rates are up a lot. My question is: Should we get a reversal on the unlocking last year, just given the bull market that we're in? Also, could there be a release in the long-term care block, just given that interest rates are a lot higher?
Walter Berman (CFO)
Yes, the interest rates will have, listen, there's balance between the equity markets and the equity and the interest markets. We, from that standpoint, are looking at our available cap. That's why we came out with a ratio, looking at it, because you're looking at it from an LDTI standpoint, from our standpoint, that's why we've determined it is not the driver of it. The element is statutory from that standpoint. We feel comfortable. The market is there, the interest rates, certainly we. You've seen our position, our excess capital has not changed sequentially. Right now, we are navigating the situation, and we feel very comfortable with it. As environments change, we have the ability to certainly absorb and adjust for it.
Yes, if we get benefits, we will evaluate, you know, certainly our positioning.
Craig Siegenthaler (Managing Director and the North American Head of Diversified Financials)
Thanks, Walter. my, my fault, and I know your answer here, but I just kind of want to hear it anyway. you know, you, you stopped selling fixed annuities. You insured your book to KKR's Global Atlantic. We've watched the alts acquire these books pretty aggressively, and now interest rates are back to healthy levels. ROEs on these portfolios are higher, and the product isn't that complicated. It's really just credit quality, duration. Don't you have a competitive advantage with your large distribution channel in wealth? you know, you seem pretty happy with your decision, but don't higher interest rates versus the last 15+ years change the calculus on the fixed annuity business too?
Walter Berman (CFO)
Well, yes. Listen, fixed annuities certainly is certainly gotten back in favor from that standpoint, and we will evaluate it, but it also has implications from a balance sheet standpoint, in surrender, out of surrender, and certainly, portfolio. We feel very comfortable with, like you said, with the reinsurance situation and there, but we are constantly evaluating whether we'll go back into manufacturing or not. Right now, I think we're comfortable where we are, but... Certainly, yes, there are advantages to it, and it ebbs and flows. We do know that, right? As rates go up and down, you have implications from liquidity and other standpoints with that portfolio. That's why we basically felt very comfortable reinsuring it. It's...
Ryan Krueger (Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Walter Berman (CFO)
Currently, RPS continues, evaluates, and make recommendation on it as we look at it, but I can say right now we're good.
Ryan Krueger (Research Analyst)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Ryan Krueger with KBW. Your line is open.
Ryan Krueger (Research Analyst)
Hi, thanks. Good morning. You mentioned the 40–50 basis points of yield uplift within the bank. Would you expect much, if any, higher, deposit costs or interest costs along with that? Should that predominantly drop to the bottom line?
Walter Berman (CFO)
That factor, I was giving you actually the asset earning rate on that going, and because, that was the question. That was what I was referring to.
Ryan Krueger (Research Analyst)
Got it.
Walter Berman (CFO)
That we would adjust that to course the funds for the bank as we look at the situation, where it sources, which is primarily coming out of the sweep account.
Ryan Krueger (Research Analyst)
Okay. Then you've seen the certificate balance, you know, increase this year. I think you're rolling out, you know, more products within the bank. At some point, should we expect some of the certificate balances to roll off and move into the bank? If so, is there much of a margin difference between the two?
Walter Berman (CFO)
Yeah, if you look at it from that standpoint, the margin balance on certificates in the bank should be comparable. Yes, we have built up because, and we just, as Jim indicated, we launched our bank certificate product, we will certainly have that offering to people. Right now we're not anticipating big shifts coming in, but we certainly are giving them the capability within an insured product.
Ryan Krueger (Research Analyst)
Okay, thank you.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Jeff Schmitt with William Blair. Your line is open.
Jeff Schmitt (Research Analyst)
Hi, thanks. I have another question on brokerage sweep rates. They appear to be pretty flat from last quarter, and the deposit beta seems to have slowed for the industry. I just wonder if there's potential for you to increase your sweep rate if the Fed keeps raising interest rates, or are competitive levels such that, you know, you may not need to raise it much anymore?
Walter Berman (CFO)
Listen, we have a very robust evaluation system that goes on to ensure we offer competitive rates. The team is now evaluating. Yes, you will see, as we look at the competitive environment and landscape, that we will evaluate then our deposit beta and increase rates accordingly to ensure that we offer our clients competitive rates.
Jeff Schmitt (Research Analyst)
Mm-hmm.
Walter Berman (CFO)
That's a very focused program we have.
Jeff Schmitt (Research Analyst)
Yep. Okay. Then just on capital return, I think it's running at 80% of operating earnings in the first half. I know in the past you've sort of targeted 90%, or at least for the full year. I mean, should we expect it to move up to that, or is there any reason it's sort of running below that long-term target?
Walter Berman (CFO)
Well, right now we established for this year, we said our target for this year is going to be 80%. Obviously, it can go up and down in a quarter, from that standpoint. We're still comfortable with that right now, staying with that guidance.
Jeff Schmitt (Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
We have no further questions at this time, and this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.