Executive Summary

Q2 2025 delivered a sharp operational rebound: Adjusted EBITDA rose to $46.1M from $5.7M in Q1, driven by a $10/ton sequential reduction in non-GAAP cost of coal sales to $100.06/ton, the company’s best quarterly cost performance since 2021 .
Results beat consensus materially: EPS of -$0.38 vs -$2.76 est. (beat by $2.38), revenue of $550.27M vs $548.40M est., and EBITDA far above the ~$7.35M est.; cost discipline and slightly higher realized pricing vs Q1 were key drivers (S&P Global data; see Estimates Context).
Guidance reset supports margin defense: cost/ton lowered ($101–$107 from $103–$110), SG&A lowered ($48–$54M from $53–$59M), net cash interest income raised ($6–$12M from $2–$10M), while idle operations expense increased ($21–$29M from $18–$28M) .
Balance sheet strength and capital returns: liquidity increased to $556.9M and the Board plans to restart the $400M remaining authorization under the $1.5B share repurchase program on an opportunistic basis, a potential stock catalyst .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Best cost performance since 2021: non-GAAP cost of coal sales reduced to $100.06/ton, down ~9% Q/Q; management cited increased productivity (+10% tons/man-hour), lower labor, and reduced repair/maintenance spend .
Realizations improved slightly: weighted realization in met coal rose to $122.84/ton vs $122.08/ton in Q1, with domestic realization of $152.28/ton supporting mix .
Liquidity build and capital discipline: total liquidity reached $556.9M; CapEx fell Q/Q to $34.6M; net cash interest income guidance raised, reflecting stronger cash positioning .
- “I want to commend our team on a great quarter and an especially impressive cost performance…” — CEO Andy Eidson .

What Went Wrong

Depressed met coal indices and macro uncertainty: U.S. East Coast High Vol A and B hit multi-year lows; management flagged ongoing trade policy/tariff uncertainty and weak steel demand .
Idle operations expense guidance increased: up to $21–$29M (from $18–$28M), reflecting operational idling costs in the portfolio .
Thermal byproduct realization softened Q/Q: incidental thermal realization fell to $78.01/ton vs $79.39/ton in Q1 .

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q2 2025 Consensus*
Total Revenues ($M)	$617.35	$531.96	$550.27	$548.40*
Diluted EPS ($)	($0.16)	($2.60)	($0.38)	($2.76)*
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$53.15	$5.65	$46.07	$7.35*
Tons of Coal Sold (mm)	4.1	3.8	3.9	—
Met Segment Realization ($/ton, Non-GAAP)	$127.84	$118.61	$119.43	—
Cost of Coal Sales ($/ton, Non-GAAP)	$108.82	$110.34	$100.06	—

Notes: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown and pricing

Category	Tons Sold (mm) Q1 2025	Tons Sold (mm) Q2 2025	Coal Revenues ($M) Q1 2025	Coal Revenues ($M) Q2 2025	Realization ($/ton) Q1 2025	Realization ($/ton) Q2 2025
Export – Other Pricing Mechanisms	1.0	1.683	$117.6	$191.6	$119.39	$113.82
Domestic (Met)	0.806	0.944	$125.4	$143.8	$155.54	$152.28
Export – Australian Indexed	1.662	0.963	$178.6	$105.7	$107.44	$109.75
Thermal (Met Segment byproduct)	0.305	0.296	$24.2	$23.1	$79.39	$78.01

KPIs and balance sheet

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Operating Cash Flow ($M)	$22.2	$53.2
Capital Expenditures ($M)	$38.5	$34.6
Cash & Equivalents ($M)	$447.99	$449.03
Liquidity ($M)	$485.8	$556.9
ABL Unused Availability ($M)	$112.9	$182.9
Letters of Credit Outstanding ($M)	$42.1	$42.1
Total Long-term Debt ($M, incl. current)	$5.0	$5.8

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Cost of Coal Sales ($/ton, Non-GAAP)	FY 2025	$103–$110	$101–$107	Lowered
SG&A ($M, excl. non-cash/one-time)	FY 2025	$53–$59	$48–$54	Lowered
Idle Operations Expense ($M)	FY 2025	$18–$28	$21–$29	Raised
Net Cash Interest Income ($M)	FY 2025	$2–$10	$6–$12	Raised
Met Shipments (mm tons)	FY 2025	13.8–14.8	13.8–14.8	Maintained
Thermal Shipments (mm tons)	FY 2025	0.8–1.2	0.8–1.2	Maintained
Total Shipments (mm tons)	FY 2025	14.6–16.0	14.6–16.0	Maintained
Capital Expenditures ($M)	FY 2025	$130–$150	$130–$150	Maintained
DTA Contributions ($M)	FY 2025	$44–$54	$44–$54	Maintained
Cash Tax Rate	FY 2025	0–5%	0–5%	Maintained

Additional guidance and contracting status: As of July 30, 2025, ~69% of met tonnage committed and priced at $127.37/ton; 100% of thermal priced at $80.52/ton .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4’24, Q1’25)	Current Period (Q2’25)	Trend
Cost discipline	Q4: Cost/ton fell to $108.82; Q1: cost/ton worsened to $110.34 due to severe weather	Cost/ton improved to $100.06; best since 2021; +10% tons/man-hour; lower labor/maintenance	Improving
Tariffs/macro demand	Q4: weak met demand; subdued pricing ; Q1: uncertainty from shifting tariffs/trade policies	Ongoing trade/tariff uncertainty; suppliers passing through tariff-related costs; indices at multi-year lows	Persistent headwind
Pricing/mix	Q4 domestic realization $158.93/ton vs export indices lower ; Q1 domestic $155.54/ton, export Aussie $107.44/ton	Q2 domestic $152.28/ton; export Aussie $109.75/ton; mix variability by customer vessel schedules	Stable domestic, variable export
Logistics/DTA	DTA spend embedded in guidance	Q2 outages completed on-time; ongoing multi-year enhancements	Progressing
Kingston Wildcat (new low vol mine)	Q1: development on-track	Slope ~1,625 ft (~93% to coal horizon); first coal & shipments expected late 2025	On track
Capital returns	Q4: $1.1B repurchases to date; 13.05M shares outstanding	Plans to restart repurchase program opportunistically	Restarting
Regulatory tailwind (45X credit)	—	2.5% refundable credit on met coal production costs (2026–2029); prelim. annual cash benefit $30–$50M	New tailwind (from 2026)

Management Commentary

“We achieved significant improvement in our cost of coal sales for the quarter… reducing our full year cost of coal sales guidance…” — CEO Andy Eidson .
“Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $46.1M… cost of coal sales decreased to $100.06/ton… driven by productivity, lower labor, and reduced repair/maintenance.” — CFO Todd Munsey .
“At $100.06/ton, the second quarter cost of coal sales represents our best quarterly performance since 2021.” — President & COO Jason Whitehead .
“We plan to restart the share repurchase program on an opportunistic basis…” — CEO Andy Eidson .
“Met coal produced between 2026 and 2029 will be eligible for the refundable tax credit… prelim. cash benefit $30–$50M annually.” — CFO Todd Munsey .

Q&A Highlights

Cost improvements sustainability: Mgmt cited fundamental changes and 10% productivity gains; aiming to maintain run-rate, while acknowledging Q3 visibility limits .
2026 cost outlook: Mgmt avoided explicit targets but noted missing sub-$100/ton by $0.06/ton in Q2; continued “land of opportunity” to find efficiencies .
Domestic contracting/pricing: Emphasis on 12-month term pricing to sustain business in 2026 vs spot volatility; no quantified pricing disclosed .
Mix variability: Quarter-to-quarter destination mix driven by buyer schedules; realizations ticked up Q/Q despite index pressure .
DTA project cadence and timeline: ~$25M/year spend cadence remains; enhancements targeted through “2028 zip code” .
Rail merger implications: Minimal expected impact given Alpha’s East Coast footprint; strong Norfolk Southern relationship .
Trade tensions (India/Brazil): No negative customer feedback to date; solicitations continue .

Estimates Context

Metric	Q2 2025 Actual	Q2 2025 Consensus*	Delta
Diluted EPS ($)	($0.38)	($2.76)*	+$2.38
Total Revenues ($M)	$550.27	$548.40*	+$1.87
EBITDA ($M)**	$46.07	$7.35*	+$38.72

Notes: *Values retrieved from S&P Global. **Company reports Adjusted EBITDA; S&P Global consensus “EBITDA” may reflect differing methodology. Use directional comparison only.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Strong operational inflection: sequential cost/ton reduction to $100.06 and EBITDA recovery to $46.1M position AMR to outperform peers if cost discipline persists into H2 .
Consensus beat driven by execution: EPS and revenue modestly beat; EBITDA materially exceeded consensus—cost actions and domestic pricing offset weak export indices (S&P Global; see above).
Guidance recalibration supportive of margins: lowered cost and SG&A guidance enhance FCF potential; higher idle ops is the trade-off .
Liquidity optionality and buyback restart: $556.9M liquidity and opportunistic repurchases provide downside support and capital allocation flexibility .
Watch macro and indices: met coal indices at multi-year lows; contracting strategy focuses on sustaining pricing for 2026 amid tariff/trade uncertainty .
Near-term catalysts: Kingston Wildcat first coal late 2025, continued DTA enhancements; monitoring guidance trajectory and domestic contracting outcomes .
Risk update: Post-quarter mine fatality (Aug 26) underscores operational safety risk profile; monitor any regulatory or operational impacts .

Additional documents read:

Q2 press release and embedded financial schedules .
Q2 earnings call transcript .
Q2 8-K (Item 2.02) attaching the press release and guidance tables .
Q1 2025 press release (for trend analysis) .
Q4 2024 press release (for trend analysis) .
Q2 pre-announcement press release (July 8) .
Safety incident press release (Aug 26) .

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary