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AM

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 results were mixed: revenue fell to $526.8M and diluted EPS was -$0.42, but Adjusted EBITDA was $41.7M and non-GAAP cost per ton improved to $97.27, marking back-to-back record quarterly cost performance since 2021 .
  • Versus Wall Street consensus, revenue missed ($526.8M vs $543.8M*), EPS beat slightly (-$0.42 vs -$0.45*), and EBITDA was above ($44.4M actual vs $40.0M*); estimates were thin (2 EPS, 3 revenue) .
  • Guidance adjusted: capital contributions to equity affiliates lowered to $35–$41M (from $44–$54M), while cost/SG&A/idle/interest/capex ranges were maintained from prior quarter; 85% of 2025 met tons priced at $122.57/ton as of Oct 29 .
  • Catalysts and risks: cost discipline and share repurchase program progress (6.8M shares repurchased, $1.1B spent) vs demand softness, domestic contract uncertainty into 2026, a CSX rail derailment logistics disruption (since resolved), and an announced fatality at Rolling Thunder Mine post-quarter that may weigh on sentiment .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Back-to-back record cost performance: non-GAAP cost per ton fell to $97.27 (from $100.06 in Q2), “an achievement to be proud of” per CEO Andy Eidson .
  • Strong liquidity: total liquidity was $568.5M at September 30 (cash $408.5M; short-term investments $49.4M; ABL availability $185.5M, less $75M minimum liquidity), and operating cash flow was $50.6M .
  • Kingston Wildcat low-vol mine milestones: slope development complete, seam intercepted; development production underway with ramp to ~1Mt annual run-rate targeted sometime during 2026 calendar year .

What Went Wrong

  • Pricing and realizations remained soft: non-GAAP coal sales realization per ton declined to $114.94 (from $119.43 in Q2), with met export realizations ~$107–$106/ton .
  • Continued net loss: Q3 net loss was $5.5M (vs $5.0M loss in Q2; $3.8M income in Q3 2024); SG&A ex-stock comp rose to ~$13.2M (from $11.9M) .
  • Market/contract uncertainty: management is not yet ready to issue 2026 guidance due to ongoing domestic negotiations; CCO cited subdued steel demand, shifting policies, and tariff/macro uncertainties .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$671.9 $532.0 $550.3 $526.8
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.29 ($2.60) ($0.38) ($0.42)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$49.0 $5.7 $46.1 $41.7
Non-GAAP Realization ($/ton)$132.76 $118.61 $119.43 $114.94
Non-GAAP Cost of Coal Sales ($/ton)$114.27 $110.34 $100.06 $97.27
GAAP Coal Margin ($/ton)$5.05 ($6.78) $4.47 $3.41

Segment mix (Q3 2025)

Met Segment SalesTons Sold (M)Coal Revenues ($M)Realization ($/ton)% of Met Tons Sold
Export – Other Pricing Mechanisms1.429 $153.3 $107.25 40%
Domestic0.858 $130.1 $151.63 24%
Export – Australian Indexed1.278 $136.0 $106.39 36%
Total Met Coal (met only)3.565 $419.3 $117.62 100%
Thermal (byproduct)0.287 $23.4 $81.64 —
Non-GAAP Coal Revenues (Total)3.852 $442.8 $114.94 —

KPIs and cash metrics

KPIQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Tons Sold (M)4.148 3.758 3.886 3.852
Operating Cash Flow ($M)$189.5 $22.2 $53.2 $50.6
Capital Expenditures ($M)$31.5 $38.5 $34.6 $25.1
Total Liquidity ($M, period-end)—$485.8 $556.9 $568.5
Cash & Equivalents ($M, period-end)$484.6 $448.0 $449.0 $408.5
ABL Availability ($M, period-end)—$112.9 $182.9 $185.5

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Capital Contributions to Equity Affiliates ($M)FY 2025$44–$54 $35–$41 Lowered
Cost of Coal Sales ($/ton, met segment)FY 2025$101–$107 (set in Q2) $101–$107 Maintained
SG&A ($M, ex stock comp/non-recurring)FY 2025$48–$54 (lowered in Q2) $48–$54 Maintained
Idle Operations Expense ($M)FY 2025$21–$29 (raised in Q2) $21–$29 Maintained
Net Cash Interest Income ($M)FY 2025$6–$12 (raised in Q2) $6–$12 Maintained
DD&A ($M)FY 2025$165–$185 $165–$185 Maintained
Capital Expenditures ($M)FY 2025$130–$150 (lowered in Q1) $130–$150 Maintained
2025 Committed/Priced Met (%) and Avg Price ($/ton)FY 202569% at $127.37 (as of Jul 30) 85% at $122.57 (as of Oct 29) Updated status
Thermal Committed/Priced (%) and Avg Price ($/ton)FY 2025100% at $80.52 100% at $80.27 Updated status

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Cost disciplineQ1: Weather drove higher costs; non-GAAP cost $110.34/ton; liquidity protection priority . Q2: Best since 2021; non-GAAP cost $100.06/ton; lowered cost guidance .Record again: non-GAAP cost $97.27/ton; CEO highlights achievement Improving
Domestic 2026 contractsQ1: Lowered 2025 shipment guidance; contract mix evolving . Q2: Ongoing, not detailed .Ongoing negotiations; no 2026 guidance yet; expect fixed-price one-year contracts; timeline longer than usual Uncertain/extended
Market/indicesQ2: 45X credit introduced; met markets soft .Range-bound US indices; Australian PLV up 9.6%; macro/policy uncertainties cited Mixed/volatile
Logistics—CSX derailment near DTA; first trains moving; multi-terminal optionality used to keep shipments flowing Operational challenge handled
Kingston Wildcat projectQ1: Capex adjusted but project on-track . Q2: Ongoing .Slope complete; development production; targeting ~1Mt annual run-rate sometime in 2026 Executing
Regulatory/taxQ2: 45X credit for met coal in 2026–2029; prelim cash benefit $30–$50M/year .Acknowledged as modest future benefit in Q&A; no new detail Future tailwind
Safety/MSHA—Enforcement still active despite government shutdown; improved safety in Sep/Oct Strengthened focus

Management Commentary

  • CEO Andy Eidson: “Reducing costs by almost three dollars as compared to last quarter's excellent results is an achievement to be proud of... especially given the difficult market backdrop we continue to experience.”
  • CFO Todd Munsey: “As of September 30th, 2025, we had $408.5 million in unrestricted cash and $49.4 million in short-term investments... total liquidity of $568.5 million... lowering our capital contributions to equity affiliates’ guidance to $35–$41 million.”
  • COO Jason Whitehead: “Q3 marks the second quarter in a row of record quarterly cost performance since 2021 at $97.27 per ton... Kingston Wildcat slope development is complete... development production will continue through the rest of the year.”
  • CCO Dan Horn: “Met coal markets have been largely range-bound... uncertainties surrounding policy changes, geopolitical unrest, tariffs, and ongoing trade negotiations... Australian PLV Index rose 9.6% in Q3.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Sustainability of cost cuts: Management flagged normal Q4 seasonality (vacations) and potential geologic risks but believes mine performance is better and planned improvements are in place .
  • Domestic contracts: Fixed-price one-year contracts remain standard; negotiations extended unusually into November amid steel sector idlings/acquisitions; volumes expected to be similar to last year, not swinging by ~1Mt+ .
  • CSX derailment: First trains have moved through; Alpha used optionality across Hampton Roads terminals and stockpiles at DTA to fulfill customers; expect short-duration impact .
  • 2026 CapEx: Wildcat project totals roughly ~$80M, with about half in 2025 and ~$40M anticipated to wrap in 2026; broader 2026 capex to be detailed in coming weeks .
  • M&A and safety: Tuck-in supply-chain deals of interest (e.g., Maxim) if synergies clear; enforcement remains active; safety performance improved in Sep/Oct .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 vs consensus: Revenue $526.8M actual vs $543.8M estimate* (miss); Primary EPS -$0.42 actual vs -$0.45 estimate* (beat); EBITDA $44.4M actual vs $40.0M estimate* (beat). Estimate count: EPS 2*, Revenue 3* .
  • With thin coverage, estimate adjustments likely to reflect sustained cost gains but conservative realizations and macro softness.
MetricActual (Q3 2025)Consensus Mean (Q3 2025)# of Estimates
Revenue ($USD)$526.8M $543.8M*3*
Primary EPS ($USD)($0.42) ($0.45)*2*
EBITDA ($USD)$44.4M $40.0M*—

Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Cost execution remains the near-term differentiator; back-to-back record cost per ton should support margins if realizations stabilize .
  • Estimate beats on EPS/EBITDA and a revenue miss suggest the P&L is being protected by costs rather than pricing; monitor realizations and domestic pricing outcomes for 2026 .
  • Liquidity is robust ($568.5M), enabling optionality on repurchases and project execution despite market softness; repurchases resumed opportunistically with $1.1B deployed to date .
  • Watch contract updates and Q4 logistics: CSX line recovery reduces shipment risk, but holiday seasonality and potential geologic issues could add volatility .
  • Kingston Wildcat progress adds 2026 volume visibility (~1Mt annual run-rate sometime in 2026), with ~$40M remaining capex next year .
  • The 45X advanced manufacturing credit (2026–2029) could be a medium-term cash tailwind ($30–$50M/year prelim), partially offsetting cycle pressures .
  • Post-quarter safety incident at Rolling Thunder Mine is a sobering headline risk; expect focus on investigation outcomes and any operational impacts .