Executive Summary

Q4 2024 produced a net loss of $2.1M (−$0.16 diluted EPS) on $617.3M total revenues as met coal pricing fell sharply; Adjusted EBITDA was $53.2M, up sequentially from Q3’s $49.0M as unit costs improved .
Met segment realized pricing fell to $127.84/ton (Q3: $132.76), while non-GAAP cost of coal sales decreased to $108.82/ton (Q3: $114.27), supporting modest margin resilience despite weaker demand .
Bold: The company lowered 2025 shipment guidance to 14.5–15.5M tons (from 15.0–16.0M) and raised the high end of cost guidance to $110/ton (from $108) due to severe weather and reduced purchased coal availability .
Liquidity remained strong at $519.4M (cash $481.6M), letters of credit cut by $15M QoQ; share repurchases remained paused given soft markets, with $400M authorization capacity remaining .
Catalysts: tariff policy clarity, global steel demand trajectory, cadence of export shipments (back half catch-up), and DTA’s planned May outage timing .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Sequential cost improvement: Met segment cost per ton fell to $108.82 (from $114.27), with Adjusted EBITDA up to $53.2M from $49.0M QoQ, reflecting operational discipline and lower supply/repair and transportation/prep costs .
Safety and productivity excellence: Management highlighted record-setting safety metrics, 99.9% water quality compliance, and productivity outperformance vs peers; “a safe mine is a productive mine” .
Balance sheet and liquidity protection: Liquidity at $519.4M, cash $481.6M, no borrowings on ABL; letters of credit outstanding reduced by $15M QoQ, supporting flexibility through a down cycle .

What Went Wrong

Earnings pressure: Q4 2024 diluted EPS was −$0.16 vs $0.29 in Q3 and $12.88 in Q4 2023 as met coal realizations fell and demand remained weak .
Pricing declines: Realized met pricing dropped to $127.84/ton, with Atlantic and Australian indices soft; management cited at least 30–40% index declines in 2024 vs early-year levels .
Guidance reset: Bold: Shipment guidance cut by 0.5M tons and cost guidance high-end raised to $110/ton due to severe winter weather impacts and lower purchased coal volumes, likely depressing Q1–Q2 2025 results .

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)	$959.991	$671.897	$617.347
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$12.88	$0.29	−$0.16
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$266.291	$49.041	$53.153
Met Sales Realization ($/ton, Non-GAAP)	$183.76	$132.76	$127.84
Met Cost of Coal Sales ($/ton, Non-GAAP)	$119.00	$114.27	$108.82
Tons Sold - Met (Millions)	4.542	4.148	4.062
Operating Cash Flow ($USD Millions)	$199.4	$189.5	$56.3
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)	$61.5	$31.5	$42.7
Consensus Revenue ($USD Millions)	N/A (SPGI unavailable)	N/A (SPGI unavailable)	N/A (SPGI unavailable)
Consensus EPS ($USD)	N/A (SPGI unavailable)	N/A (SPGI unavailable)	N/A (SPGI unavailable)

Notes: Wall Street consensus via S&P Global was unavailable (SPGI request limit), so beat/miss vs estimates cannot be assessed this quarter.

Segment Breakdown (Q4 2024 Met Segment)

Pricing Mechanism	Tons Sold (Millions)	Coal Revenues ($USD Millions)	Realization ($/ton)	% of Met Tons
Export – Other Pricing Mechanisms	1.693	$206.9	$122.24	46%
Domestic	0.984	$156.4	$158.93	26%
Export – Australian Indexed	1.045	$130.3	$124.71	28%
Total Met Coal	3.722	$493.7	$132.63	100%
Thermal (Incidental)	0.340	$25.6	$75.39	—

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPI	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total Liquidity ($USD Millions)	$507.0	$519.4
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)	$484.6	$481.6
Unused ABL Availability ($USD Millions)	$97.5	$112.9
Letters of Credit Outstanding ($USD Millions)	$57.5	$42.1
Total Long-term Debt ($USD Millions)	$6.7	$5.8
Share Repurchases (Cumulative)	6.6M shares; $1.1B @ $165.74/sh	6.6M shares; $1.1B @ $165.74/sh
Shares Outstanding	~13,016,010 (10/31/2024)	13,052,684 (2/21/2025)
2025 Committed & Priced – Met (%)	—	32% @ $143.81/ton
2025 Committed & Priced – Thermal (%)	—	95% @ $80.74/ton

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Metallurgical Shipments (M tons)	FY 2025	15.0–16.0	14.5–15.5	Lowered
Thermal Shipments (M tons)	FY 2025	1.0–1.4	1.0–1.4	Maintained
Met Segment – Total Shipments (M tons)	FY 2025	16.0–17.4	15.5–16.9	Lowered
Met Cost of Coal Sales ($/ton, Non-GAAP)	FY 2025	$103–$108	$103–$110	Raised high end
SG&A ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$53–$59	$53–$59	Maintained
Idle Operations Expense ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$18–$28	$18–$28	Maintained
Net Cash Interest Income ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$2–$10	$2–$10	Maintained
DD&A ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$165–$185	$165–$185	Maintained
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$152–$182	$152–$182	Maintained
Capital Contributions to Equity Affiliates ($USD Millions)	FY 2025	$44–$54	$44–$54	Maintained
Cash Tax Rate (%)	FY 2025	0%–5%	0%–5%	Maintained

Drivers: Management cited severe winter weather (absenteeism, power outages, flooding, transportation delays) and lower purchased coal availability as key reasons for the shipment and cost adjustments .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Met coal pricing / steel demand	Persistent softness; indices fell through Q2–Q3; High-Vol oversupply; WSA modest 2025 rebound	Indices down ≥30% YoY; PLV −40%; continued weak demand and geopolitical uncertainty	Worsening vs early-year; still soft
Share repurchases & liquidity	Paused to preserve cash; target strong liquidity buffer	Still paused; liquidity $519.4M; manage to cash until markets turn	Maintained caution
Weather and operations	Localized rail/weather issues in Q3; Checkmate Powellton idled (hot idle)	Severe winter weather materially impacted production/logistics; expecting Q1–Q2 pressure	Worsened
Shipment cadence (domestic vs export)	Strong Q1–Q2 shipments; domestic commitments for 2025 (3.7M @ $152.51)	Domestic ratable; export more back-half due to “accordion effect” recovery	Back-half weighted
Tariffs / regulatory	Monitoring geopolitics; no material Baltimore impact	New administration tariff uncertainty may alter trade flows and costs	Heightened uncertainty
DTA terminal	Equipment maintenance outage in May (Q2 mention)	Planned ~2‑week outage in May; risk of shipment delays	Known near-term headwind
Kingston Wildcat (Low‑Vol)	Development underway; late 2025 cuts; 1.0Mtpa at full run-rate	~880 ft deep; timeline intact; 2025 late first cuts, ramp in 2026	On track
Purchased coal / cost structure	Q2: cost reductions 50/50 sales-related and purchased coal	2025 cost midpoint includes ~$1/ton impact from weather; high-end cushion	Mix shift; cautious costs
M&A optionality	N/A	Open-door posture; selective bolt-ons if accretive; watch cash burn	Exploratory

Management Commentary

CEO: “We continue to see lower levels of met coal demand which is keeping pricing subdued… adjustments… are reflective of lower amounts of purchased coal… and the impact of severe weather… on our operating plans” .
CFO: “32% of our metallurgical tonnage… is committed and priced at an average price of $143.81… thermal… 95%… at $80.74… we did not repurchase any shares in the fourth quarter” .
COO: “We maintained our 99.9% water quality compliance in 2024… back-to-back company records for… safety metrics… cost of coal sales were down approximately $6 a ton” .
CCO: “Australian PLV decreased to $187/mt… U.S. East Coast Low‑Vol $184, High‑Vol A $180.50, High‑Vol B $167.50… tariff situation… changes rapidly” .

Q&A Highlights

Shipment cadence: Domestic shipments expected ratable; export weighted to back half as missed shipments are recovered (“accordion effect”) .
Cost guidance: High-end raised by $2/ton as a buffer; at least ~$1/ton midpoint impact from Q1 weather; difficult to disaggregate drivers precisely .
Pricing color: Some export met tons priced ~$113/ton likely High‑Vol; supply tighter than perceived due to East Coast weather impacts .
Tariffs and demand: Ability to pivot between domestic/seaborne; domestic outlook tied to blast furnace operations; no clear signals of increases yet .
Capital returns: Liquidity target ~$400–$500M cash; repurchases paused until markets turn decisively; protect franchise in down cycle .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 revenue and EPS was unavailable due to data access limits; therefore, we cannot assess beat/miss versus estimates this quarter. Management commentary implies softness consistent with pricing declines and weather-driven shipment constraints .
Near-term estimate risks: Potential downward revisions to Q1–Q2 2025 shipments and margin assumptions given guidance cut and May DTA outage; offset by cost improvements and domestic commitments already priced .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Expect near-term pressure: Guidance cut and weather impacts suggest softer Q1–Q2 prints; watch export shipment recovery cadence into H2 2025 and DTA outage execution .
Cost discipline is helping: Lower unit costs and stable SG&A/DD&A guidance support margin resilience; monitor realized prices vs cost guidance high end ($110/ton) .
Liquidity strategy intact: Strong cash and reduced LCs position AMR to navigate the down cycle; capital returns likely on hold until pricing recovers .
Pricing mix matters: High‑Vol exposure and index levels (PLV, HV‑A/B) drive realizations; domestic contracts (3.7M @ $152.51 for 2025 announced earlier) provide partial price floor .
Project optionality: Kingston Wildcat (Low‑Vol) remains on track for late‑2025 initial cuts and 2026 ramp, potentially enhancing product mix and future margins .
Policy/geopolitics is a swing factor: Tariff clarity and global steel demand trajectory will influence export price realizations and trade flows .
Watch M&A signals: Management is open to bolt-on opportunities; prioritize accretion and geographic/quality synergies in Central Appalachia .

Non-GAAP Considerations

Adjusted EBITDA, non-GAAP coal revenues/realizations, non-GAAP cost of coal sales/margins and related per-ton metrics are defined and reconciled in company materials; comparisons above reflect these non-GAAP measures where specified .

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary