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Amrize Ltd (AMRZ)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $3.22B, down 0.7% year over year; adjusted EBITDA was $947M with a 29.4% margin, reflecting resilient performance despite inclement weather and softer market volumes .
  • Results included an incremental $42M in standalone corporate costs not in Q2 2024; excluding these, adjusted EBITDA margin would have been 30.7%, indicating stable underlying profitability in a softer volume environment .
  • FY2025 financial targets were reiterated: revenue $11.4B–$11.8B, adjusted EBITDA $2.9B–$3.1B, and year-end net leverage under 1.5x, with assumptions of ~$700M CapEx, ~$850M D&A, and a 22–24% tax rate .
  • Balance sheet established at investment grade (S&P BBB+, Moody’s Baa1), with $6.2B gross debt, $5.6B net debt, and 1.8x net leverage as of Q2; management expects <1.5x by year-end, supporting growth investments and shareholder returns .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Stable consolidated margins: adjusted EBITDA margin of 29.4% despite lower volumes; excluding standalone corporate costs, margins were stable, highlighting disciplined pricing and efficiency .
  • Building Materials segment maintained strong margin discipline (33.7%) supported by infrastructure demand and pricing actions, despite volume declines in cement (-6.3%) and aggregates (-2.9%) .
  • Strategic execution on growth: launched ASPIRE program targeting $250M+ synergies through 2028 (~50 bps margin improvement annually), began incremental savings in H2 2025; continued CapEx/M&A including Ste. Genevieve expansion, St. Constant capacity, Langley acquisition, and new Oklahoma quarry .

What Went Wrong

  • Year-over-year earnings compression: net income fell 9.5% to $428M and adjusted EBITDA declined 5.6% to $947M due to softer volumes and incremental standalone corporate costs .
  • Residential market softness persisted, with higher interest rates limiting new construction and existing home sales; commercial uncertainty impacted timing of smaller projects and CapEx .
  • Segment EBITDA modestly down: Building Materials (-1.6% YoY) and Building Envelope (-0.8% YoY), reflecting volume pressure and price-over-cost stability rather than expansion .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results vs Prior Quarter and Prior Year

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$2,849 $2,081 $3,220
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$790 $214 $947
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)27.8% 10.3% 29.4%
Net Income ($USD Millions)$292 $(87) $428
Net Income Margin (%)10.2% (4.2%) 13.3%

EPS vs Prior Year and Current Quarter

MetricQ2 2024Q2 2025
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.86 $0.78

Q2 2025 Actuals vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricActual Q2 2025Consensus Q2 2025 (S&P Global)*Beat/Miss
Revenue ($USD Billions)$3.22 $3.389*Miss
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)$0.947 $1.098*Miss
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.78 N/A*N/A

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment Breakdown (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)

SegmentRevenue ($USD Millions) Q2 2024Revenue ($USD Millions) Q2 2025Segment Adj. EBITDA ($USD Millions) Q2 2024Segment Adj. EBITDA ($USD Millions) Q2 2025Segment Adj. EBITDA Margin (%) Q2 2024Segment Adj. EBITDA Margin (%) Q2 2025
Building Materials$2,274 $2,250 $770 $758 33.9% 33.7%
Building Envelope$969 $970 $263 $261 27.1% 26.9%
Total$3,243 $3,220 $1,033 $1,019 ——

KPIs (Q2 2025)

KPIQ2 2025
Cement volumes YoY-6.3%
Cement average price per ton YoY+0.5%
Aggregates volumes YoY-2.9%
Aggregates average price per ton YoY+6.7%
Net Leverage Ratio1.8x
Net Debt ($USD Billions)$5.597

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025$11.4B–$11.8B (March guidance; maintained) $11.4B–$11.8B Maintained
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$2.9B–$3.1B (March guidance; maintained) $2.9B–$3.1B Maintained
Net Leverage RatioFY 2025 (year-end)Under 1.5x (March guidance; maintained) Under 1.5x Maintained
CapExFY 2025~$700M (assumption) ~$700M Maintained
D&AFY 2025~$850M (assumption) ~$850M Maintained
Effective Tax RateFY 202522%–24% (assumption) 22%–24% Maintained
Dividends/Shareholder ReturnsFY 2025Strategy to return cash via dividends/buybacks (no numeric change) Strategy reiterated Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Pricing and price-over-costContinued positive price over cost; margin discipline even amid FX and volume headwinds 14th consecutive quarter of positive price over cost; low-to-mid single-digit pricing; cost efficiencies in distribution/support processes Improving price discipline; stable P>Cost
Residential marketSofter demand; interest rates impacting activity Higher rates limiting new construction; repair/refurb steady Still soft; awaiting rate relief
Infrastructure/commercialStrong pipeline supporting demand; large projects/data centers offset smaller project delays Steady public sector demand; commercial CapEx timing impacted; data center and mega-projects strong Positive secular drivers persist
EU ETS/RegulatoryPreparation for decarbonization and circularity initiatives Expect higher price increases in 2026 pending EU ETS Phase 4 details; CBAM/import dynamics monitored Potential 2026 pricing tailwind
AI/technology initiatives—Partnership on Meta data center: AI-optimized ready-mix; advanced materials deployment Emerging applied tech in projects
M&A and capital allocationHealthy bolt-on pipeline; disciplined deployment Active bolt-ons (Ox Engineered Products, Langley); growth-focused capital allocation priorities reiterated Ongoing bolt-on focus

Management Commentary

  • “We successfully listed Amrize on the NYSE and SIX on June 23… generating stable revenue and strong margins… With an investment grade balance sheet and substantial financial firepower to fuel our growth, we are ready to deliver superior value to all stakeholders.” — Jan Jenisch, Chairman & CEO .
  • ASPIRE program targets “more than $250 million in synergies through 2028, delivering over 50 basis points of margin improvement per year” with incremental savings beginning in H2 2025 and full annual run-rate in 2026 .
  • Building Materials outlook driven by “infrastructure modernization, onshoring of manufacturing, data center expansion and the need to bridge the housing gap” .
  • Building Envelope supported by acquisition (Ox Engineered Products contributed $33M revenue) and “disciplined pricing with stable price over cost” amid softer residential demand .
  • Investment grade established: “S&P BBB+ and Moody’s Baa1… Gross Debt $6.2B… Net Leverage Ratio 1.8x… anticipate under 1.5x by year-end 2025” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Pricing and margins: Management emphasized a 14th consecutive quarter of positive price over cost, supported by low-to-mid single-digit pricing and cost efficiencies; FX was a headwind in higher-profit countries .
  • Guidance stance: FY2025 guidance left unchanged from March; management aims to “overachieve” within 6–10% recurring EBIT growth and sees H2 momentum equal to or better than H1 .
  • Europe volumes: Expect flattish to modest improvement in H2 with margin expansion driven by sustainable offerings and decarbonization/circular construction .
  • EU ETS and 2026 pricing: Too early to quantify, but likely higher price increases than 2025 as Phase 4 benchmarks/allowances evolve; monitoring CBAM/import dynamics .
  • M&A cadence: Healthy pipeline across regions, strict discipline on bolt-ons; larger deal screening ongoing, focused on end-to-end solutions across walling, roofing, etc. .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 revenue missed S&P Global consensus ($3.22B actual vs $3.389B* estimate), and adjusted EBITDA missed ($0.947B actual vs $1.098B* estimate). EPS was $0.78, but consensus EPS was unavailable* .
  • With incremental standalone corporate costs ($42M) and weather/macro headwinds, near-term consensus may need to reflect price-over-cost resilience but volume sensitivity in residential and timing effects in commercial .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Underlying margin resilience remains intact despite softer volumes; excluding $42M standalone corporate costs, Q2 margin would have been 30.7%, evidencing pricing discipline and cost efficiencies .
  • Secular demand from infrastructure, data centers, and onshoring supports the Building Materials outlook; near-term residential remains rate-sensitive .
  • FY2025 targets maintained and investment-grade balance sheet (1.8x leverage, <1.5x expected by year-end) provide capacity for growth CapEx and bolt-on M&A, supporting medium-term margin expansion via ASPIRE synergies .
  • Segment trends: Building Materials margins stable on price discipline; Building Envelope steady with acquisition contribution ($33M) and price-over-cost management .
  • Watch 2026 pricing in Europe (EU ETS Phase 4) and CBAM/import dynamics; management indicated potential for higher price increases in 2026 vs 2025 .
  • Near-term trading: The double miss vs revenue and EBITDA consensus may weigh on sentiment; however, reaffirmed FY targets, synergy program catalysts, and investment-grade firepower are offsets for medium-term thesis .
  • Execution milestones to monitor: H2 synergy savings start, Ste. Genevieve/St. Constant capacity additions, Malarkey shingle plant build, and continued bolt-ons to support consolidated margin trajectory .