AT
AMERICAN TOWER CORP /MA/ (AMT)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Revenue rose 3.2% year over year to $2.63B, with property revenue up 1.2% to $2.53B; Adjusted EBITDA grew 1.8% to $1.75B, while AFFO fell 6.7% to $1.22B due to prior-year nonrecurring benefits and FX headwinds .
- EPS of $0.78 was a significant miss vs. consensus $1.66*, while revenue modestly beat consensus $2.592B*; services revenue nearly doubled year over year to $100M, reflecting near-record U.S. services activity .
- AMT raised full-year 2025 guidance for property revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and AFFO (midpoints +$165M, +$120M, +$55M, respectively) but reduced net income midpoints (-$400M NI, -$475M NICS), citing unrealized FX losses .
- CoreSite sustained double-digit revenue growth driven by demand for AI-ready interconnection; management flagged a healthy densification pipeline and >50% YoY increase in application volume, but noted slower commencements at one U.S. customer .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- U.S. services delivered a near-record quarter; management highlighted broad-based midband upgrades and accelerating densification as key drivers .
- CoreSite posted double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion on AI-related workloads; the DE1 Denver acquisition added capacity and ~$10M in 2025 property revenue in outlook .
- Organic Tenant Billings Growth was 4.7%, and total tenant billings growth was 5.2%, supported by colocations/amendments and escalations across regions .
What Went Wrong
- Unrealized FX losses of ~$484M reduced net income 58% YoY and drove the EPS miss vs. consensus .
- Latin America remained challenged: property revenue declined 13.2% YoY; management cited increased bad debt and collection issues, elevated churn post-consolidation .
- Timing slippage on U.S. commencements for one customer modestly lowered new business OTBG and U.S. OTBG to ~4.3% (from ≥4.3% in prior guide) .
Financial Results
Quarterly financials (oldest → newest)
Segment revenue breakdown (Q2 2024 vs Q2 2025)
KPIs and operating metrics
Q2 2025 results vs. Wall Street consensus
Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Management attributes raises to FX tailwinds (+$130M property revenue, +$80M Adjusted EBITDA, +$55M AFFO) and core outperformance, while net income was reduced on unrealized FX losses .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Demand for our high-quality global portfolio of telecommunications sites continued into the second quarter… Growing demand for AI-ready interconnection solutions fueled double-digit growth at CoreSite… international activity remains steady, with a solid cash flow conversion enhanced through cost and capital discipline.” — CEO Steven Vondran .
- “Leasing momentum remained strong… consolidated organic tenant billings growth of 4.7%… U.S. services business had a near-record quarter… CoreSite had an exceptional quarter with double-digit revenue growth and gross margin expansion… net leverage stood at 5.1 times.” — CFO Rod Smith .
- On U.S. pipeline: “Total application volume increased more than 50% year over year… [but] a customer… is moving a little bit slower than we expected” on commencements — CEO Steven Vondran .
Q&A Highlights
- U.S. leasing dynamics: Healthy pipeline and rising colocations; modest timing delays on commencements for one customer lowered U.S. OTBG to ~4.3% (from ≥4.3%), reducing new business by ~$5M in-year — management emphasized timing, not demand change .
- Churn outlook: Final Sprint churn this year; churn expected to drop to ~1% of U.S. revenues in Q4 and remain low thereafter, excluding any UScellular impacts .
- UScellular and DISH exposure: UScellular <0.5% of global property revenue (<1% U.S.); DISH ~2% global, ~4% U.S.; management optimistic on DISH developments .
- CoreSite supply chain: Pre-buys and tariff cost mitigation clauses; demand remains robust though supply chain length can limit acceleration .
- Capital allocation: Target leverage ≤5x; prioritize dividend growth broadly aligned with AFFO, internally generated capex ($1.7B FY25), and flexible debt reduction/M&A/buybacks .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 EPS of $0.78 missed consensus $1.66* materially, driven by ~$484M unrealized FX losses; revenue of $2.627B beat consensus $2.592B* .
- Consensus counts: 6 EPS estimates; 16 revenue estimates*; magnitude of FX-driven EPS volatility suggests models may need to incorporate updated FX assumptions before translating to net income .
Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- The narrative is bifurcated: stronger revenue and services activity with raised FY property revenue/EBITDA/AFFO guidance, but EPS pressured by unrealized FX losses — focus on AFFO and Adjusted EBITDA as better operating indicators .
- CoreSite’s sustained double-digit growth and AI-driven demand (plus DE1) are increasingly important to the consolidated growth profile and margin expansion .
- U.S. towers see robust amendment and emerging densification trends; watch the cadence of commencements for conversion risk, but pipeline remains strong .
- Latin America remains a drag near term (churn, bad debt); management expects low-single-digit growth through 2027, implying continued conservative assumptions for the region .
- Churn tailwinds in U.S. post-Sprint should support OTBG trajectory and margins into late-2025/2026 (subject to UScellular integration outcomes) .
- Balance sheet/liquidity are solid (5.1x net leverage; ~$10.5B liquidity), enabling optionality across deleveraging, M&A, CoreSite development, and potential buybacks .
- Near-term trading implications: expect sensitivity to FX commentary and AFFO guidance trajectory; medium-term thesis hinges on densification in developed markets and CoreSite execution amid AI interconnection demand .