AT
AMERICAN TOWER CORP /MA/ (AMT)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 delivered mid-to-high single-digit revenue and Adjusted EBITDA growth, with double-digit AFFO per share growth (as adjusted); total revenue was $2.717B (+7.7% YoY), Adjusted EBITDA $1.816B (+7.6% YoY), and AFFO/share $2.78 (+5.3% YoY) .
- Results beat Wall Street consensus: revenue beat by ~$61M and EPS beat by ~$0.17, and management raised full-year guidance across property revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, AFFO, and AFFO/share ; consensus sourced from S&P Global (see Estimates Context).
- CoreSite posted a record quarter of signed retail new leasing, pricing remained favorable, and data center property revenue grew ~14% YoY; U.S. services revenue was near a record again and supportive of 2026 pipeline .
- International performance remained robust (double-digit growth in Africa/APAC, mid-single-digit in Europe), while U.S. & Canada was flat reported but ~+5% ex straight-line/Sprint churn; leverage improved to 4.9x with ~$10.7B liquidity .
- Potential stock catalysts: guidance raise, strong CoreSite and services momentum, and capital return (post-Q3 share repurchases of ~$28M) alongside clarity from Dish/EchoStar contract enforcement actions .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- “CoreSite signed record retail new leasing revenue” with strong hybrid-cloud demand, positive pricing actions, and increasing AI-related workloads (inferencing, ML, GPU-as-a-service) .
- Raised 2025 guidance midpoints for property revenue (+$40M), Adjusted EBITDA (+$45M), AFFO (+$50M), and AFFO/share (+$0.10), driven primarily by FX tailwinds, U.S. services outperformance, and net interest benefits .
- Leverage improved to 4.9x (lowest among tower peers per management), and liquidity stood at ~$10.7B, providing flexibility for opportunistic buybacks (151K shares for ~$$28M after quarter-end) .
What Went Wrong
- Latin America faced ~$20M of revenue reserves (AT&T Mexico rental calculation dispute) with an interim agreement; remaining rents deposited in escrow pending arbitration (hearing scheduled August 2026) .
- U.S. reported growth was flat due to lower straight-line revenue and final Sprint churn; organic U.S. growth was ~4% (ex-Sprint >5%), indicating underlying strength but optics weighed by non-cash items .
- CoreSite pre-leasing dipped to ~6%, reflecting projects entering service rather than demand softness; quarter-to-quarter data center growth can show variability from timing and one-off items .
Financial Results
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “CoreSite signed record retail new leasing revenue and experienced healthy growth in our larger deployments as well…strong demand for hybrid cloud and multi-cloud deployments and positive pricing actions amidst tight supply dynamics.”
- “On average, approximately 75% of our towers have been upgraded with 5G equipment…considerable runway for growth as carriers complete 5G coverage and shift attention to densification.”
- “Our balance sheet…leverage now below five times…provides a cost of capital advantage and superior financial flexibility.”
- “We are raising our full year outlook across property revenue, adjusted EBITDA, attributable AFFO, and AFFO per share…supported primarily by FX tailwinds, U.S. services outperformance, and net interest benefits.”
Q&A Highlights
- Services momentum: Near-record services year; healthy pipeline points to robust 2026 contribution; construction management component larger this year .
- Spectrum auctions and densification: Towers will be primary deployment method even at higher frequencies (up to ~10 GHz); densification required alongside spectrum/tech efficiencies .
- Dish/EchoStar MLA: Company filed declaratory judgment to confirm rent due through 2036; EchoStar current on payments; ~2% of total property revenue, ~4% of U.S. & Canada property revenue .
- Colocation demand: Overall applications up ~20% YoY; colocation applications up ~40% YoY—early signs of densification .
- U.S. Cellular exposure: <1% of U.S. revenue (<0.5% global); chunk up for renewal in 2026; churn expected to remain within historical 1–2% range .
- Capital allocation: Opportunistic buybacks ($28M post-Q3); private tower multiples elevated vs public; focus on developed markets and CoreSite .
Estimates Context
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Consensus beat driven by strong U.S. services, double-digit CoreSite growth, and consolidated organic tenant billings growth ~5%, with FX tailwinds contributing to the guidance raise .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Guidance momentum: Raised FY25 midpoints across property revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, AFFO, and AFFO/share; FX tailwinds and services outperformance are key drivers .
- CoreSite strength: Record retail leasing and favorable pricing, plus visible AI-related demand and significant development runway (296 MW available; 42 MW under construction) .
- Densification narrative: Higher-frequency spectrum and ~35% YoY mobile data growth in the U.S. underscore multi-year densification needs; early signs via colocation applications .
- Legal processes manageable: AT&T Mexico interim agreement/escrow mitigates cash flow risk during arbitration; Dish/EchoStar suit seeks to affirm MLA rent through 2036 .
- Leverage and buybacks: Net leverage at 4.9x with ~$10.7B liquidity supports flexible capital allocation; ~$28M buybacks post-Q3 with $2B authorization remaining .
- U.S. optics vs underlying: Reported U.S. & Canada revenue flat due to lower straight-line and final Sprint churn; organic growth
4% (>5% ex-Sprint) signals core demand . - 2026 preview: Management will provide more detail on cost optimization and the 2026 outlook in Q4, with services pipeline suggesting continued robust contribution .