Executive Summary

Mixed Q1: Renewables offset a weak Agribusiness; revenue was $2.659B and GAAP EPS was $0.01; adjusted EPS was $0.12. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $57.3M on stronger ethanol operations, while Agribusiness posted a pretax loss amid disrupted grain flows and tighter basis in Western assets .
Versus S&P Global consensus, ANDE delivered a significant EPS beat (Primary EPS -$0.09* est vs $0.12 actual*), but revenue missed ($2.838B* est vs $2.659B) and EBITDA was below S&P’s standardized estimate ($46.6M* est vs $41.5M actual*) [Values retrieved from S&P Global].
Outlook: Management expects a strong Q2 in Agronomy on higher corn acres and sees favorable storage/handling opportunities later in 2025; Renewables demand should remain solid with efficient plants, though higher Eastern corn basis and natural gas costs are expected .
Capital and dividend: Company guided 2025 capex could reach ~$200M; balance sheet leverage remains ~1.8x long-term debt/EBITDA with $219M cash; the Board declared a Q3 2025 dividend of $0.195/share, marking the 115th consecutive quarterly dividend .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Renewables delivered one of its best Q1s: pretax income attributable to ANDE of $15.3M and EBITDA of $37.5M on efficient operations, higher yields, and favorable board crush; ethanol/renewable diesel feedstock merchandising was up YoY .
- Gross profit improved YoY despite lower revenues, and adjusted EBITDA rose to $57.3M; TTM adjusted EBITDA stood at ~$369.5M, underscoring resilient cash generation through the ag cycle .
- Positive tone on near-term agronomy and H2 storage/handling: “As planting progresses, we see ample second quarter opportunities… Strong system-wide corn and wheat production should provide a good environment for storage and handling later in the year” — CEO Bill Krueger .
What Went Wrong
- Agribusiness (new combined Nutrient/Trade) posted a pretax loss of $9.7M; stagnating grain flows tied to global trade uncertainties, threatened tariffs and port fees hurt Western asset basis; adjusted pretax income attributable to ANDE was breakeven .
- Co-product values were weaker: corn-based feed ingredients pressured by oversupply of alternative protein sources, tempering Renewables’ otherwise strong quarter .
- Higher interest expense (net) of $13.1M vs $6.5M last year weighed on results, and O&A&G expenses rose with Skyland integration and scale .

Financial Results

Core P&L and Margins (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$2.621	$3.123	$2.659
Diluted EPS (GAAP)	$0.80	$1.31	$0.01
Adjusted EPS (Company)	$0.72	$1.36	$0.12
Gross Profit Margin %	6.76%*	6.82%*	5.75%*
EBITDA (Company, $M)	$101.0	$113.7	$50.6
Adjusted EBITDA (Company, $M)	$97.4	$116.5	$57.3

Note: Asterisked values retrieved from S&P Global.

Q1 2025 vs Consensus (S&P Global)

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Surprise
Primary EPS	-$0.09*	$0.12*	Beat — mix-shift to Renewables, stronger ethanol operations
Revenue ($B)	$2.838*	$2.659	Miss — sluggish grain flows, weaker Western basis
EBITDA ($M, S&P standardized)	$46.6*	$41.5*	Miss — higher O&A and interest; lower co-product values

Note: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

Segment Metric	Q1 2024	Q1 2025
Agribusiness: Sales & Merch ($M)	$2,061.4	$1,993.3
Agribusiness: Income (Loss) Before Tax Attrib. to ANDE ($M)	$2.538	$(5.154)
Agribusiness: Adjusted Income Before Tax Attrib. to ANDE ($M)	$5.390	$(0.125)
Agribusiness: Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$29.1	$31.4
Renewables: Sales & Merch ($M)	$656.8	$665.8
Renewables: Income Before Tax Attrib. to ANDE ($M)	$17.243	$15.312
Renewables: Adjusted Income Before Tax Attrib. to ANDE ($M)	$14.126	$15.312
Renewables: EBITDA / Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$36.7 / $33.6	$37.5 / $37.5

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPI	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Cash from Ops before WC changes ($M)	$48.4	$99.9	$57.0
Capex ($M)	$26.8 (Q1’24)	$56.0 (Q4’24)	$46.5 (Q1’25)
Cash & Equivalents ($M)	$283.9	$561.8	$219.2
Long-term Debt ($M, excl. current)	$556.2	$608.2	$588.1
Effective Tax Rate	10.0% (Q1’24)	19.5% (Q4’24)	(66)% (Q1’25, benefit on discrete items)

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted Effective Tax Rate	FY 2025	~14%–18% (FY24 commentary)	~18%–22%	Raised
Capital Expenditures	FY 2025	Qualitative: “increased spending in 2025” (no amount)	“Could reach ~$200M”	Established range
Renewables Operating Outlook	2025	Favorable margins supported by exports and lower corn basis (prior)	Solid demand; plants efficient; expect higher Eastern corn basis and natural gas costs	Qualitative update
Dividend	Q3 2025	n/a	$0.195/share declared; 115th consecutive quarterly dividend	Maintained/consistent

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3’24 and Q4’24)	Current Period (Q1’25)	Trend
Ethanol margins & plant efficiency	Strong Q3 on lower corn basis East; efficient record production; Q4 solid but below 2023; hedged near-term volumes	One of best Q1s; higher yields, favorable board crush; co-product values lower	Positive on core ops; co-products soft
Trade/grain flows & basis	Q3: strong elevation/space income; early/robust harvest; Q4: early harvest, good basis values	Threatened tariffs/port fees disrupted grain flows; Western basis challenged; just-in-time buying	Near-term headwind; improving clarity expected
Agronomy/corn acres	Q3: setup for early/large harvest; Q4: expected increase in corn acres 2025	Strong Q2 outlook; higher corn acres drive nutrient volume; good positioning	Improving into Q2
Regulatory (RVO/ILUC)	Q4: regulatory uncertainty noted	Expect RVO clarity (end of May); constructive tone for RD feedstocks	Potential catalyst
Capex & growth projects	Q3: Skyland closed; Houston export/meal expansion; plant efficiency/CI projects	2025 capex could reach ~$200M; pipeline includes efficiency, capacity, M&A	Accelerating investment
Port of Houston	Q4: significant investment to expand soybean meal export capacity	Project continues despite macro uncertainty	Steady execution

Management Commentary

Strategy and portfolio: “We remain pleased with our overall asset and merchandising footprint. With the combination of the former Trade and Nutrient businesses, we are reviewing the portfolio to find synergies and process improvements.” — CEO Bill Krueger .
Outlook for 2025: “We expect our plants to continue their highly efficient production… Demand remains solid for ethanol and co-products… We believe export demand will remain strong. However, we expect higher Eastern Corn basis and natural gas costs.” — CEO Bill Krueger .
Financial discipline: “Our long-term debt-to-EBITDA is approximately 1.8x… We continue to have a balance sheet with significant capacity to support growth investments… capex could reach $200M for the year.” — CFO Brian Valentine .

Q&A Highlights

Fertilizer Q2 setup: Management sees stronger Q2 agronomy vs last two years, supported by higher corn acres and solid supplier positioning across an expanded footprint (Skyland) .
East vs West corn basis: Western Corn Belt saw less demand (weaker exports/sorghum, lower cattle on feed), easing freight; this year, Eastern basis is relatively higher vs West due to those shifts .
Renewable diesel feedstock/RVO: Better trading activity ahead of expected RVO announcement; management sees potential for more positive outcomes for RD processors but awaits final numbers .
Skyland integration: Q1 EBITDA was slightly positive; full-year run-rate still targeted at $30–$40M but biased to low end given tough Q1; integration and synergy work ongoing .
Houston investment: Remains strategically attractive; higher RVOs would increase soybean oil demand, boosting soybean meal export volumes — supports the project’s rationale .
Ethanol exports to Canada: Strong Q1 exports may be some pull-forward; full-year export range seen around 1.85–1.90B gallons with tariff risk a key variable .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus for Q1’25 Primary EPS was -$0.09*, and company-reported adjusted EPS printed $0.12 (beat). Revenue was below the $2.838B* consensus at $2.659B. S&P standardized EBITDA was $41.5M*, below the $46.6M* consensus; company-reported adjusted EBITDA was $57.3M (non-GAAP) .
Revisions likely: Street may raise near-term EPS/adjusted EBITDA for Renewables given stronger operating metrics, while trimming Agribusiness expectations in H1 until trade flows normalize and H2 storage/handling tailwinds materialize .
Note: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Renewables strength is durable near term: efficient plants, improved yields, favorable crush, and solid export demand underpin earnings quality in 2025 despite softer co-products .
Agribusiness headwinds appear cyclical: tariff/port-fee uncertainty and Western basis pressure hurt Q1, but improved clarity and higher corn/wheat production should aid merchandising and space income later in 2025 .
Seasonal Q2 catalyst: agronomy poised for a strong quarter on higher corn acres and good channel positioning, likely a near-term earnings driver .
Regulatory watch: RVO and ILUC clarity is a potential positive catalyst for ethanol/RD value chains; management is positioned through merchandising and co-product initiatives .
Capital deployment accelerating: 2025 capex could approach ~$200M focused on efficiency, capacity, CI reduction, and M&A; balance sheet capacity intact (~1.8x long-term debt/EBITDA; $219M cash) .
Dividend consistency adds support: Q3 2025 dividend declared at $0.195/share (115th consecutive) signals confidence and capital return discipline .
Risk monitor: watch co-product pricing, Eastern corn basis, natural gas costs, and any escalation in trade/tariff policies that could further disrupt grain flows .

Sources: Company 8-K/press release and earnings call for Q1 2025 and prior quarters . Dividend press release .
Note: Asterisked values are retrieved from S&P Global.

Andersons, Inc. (ANDE)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary