Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered strong company-level results in a low-volatility ag backdrop: net income attributable was $45.1M ($1.31 diluted EPS) and adjusted net income was $46.9M ($1.36 adjusted EPS), while adjusted EBITDA was $116.5M; Trade posted a record quarter on elevation margins and premium ingredients, Renewables remained profitable but down year over year on margin compression .
Management emphasized resilient cash generation: Q4 cash from operations before working capital changes was $99.9M; year-end cash was $561.8M and long-term debt/adjusted EBITDA stood at 1.8x, well below the 2.5x target .
Strategic updates remain on track: Skyland Grain integration is proceeding well (Q4 contribution estimated ~$5–$10M EBITDA in Nov–Dec; 2025 target $30–$40M EBITDA), and Port of Houston expansion will support soybean meal export volumes albeit with constrained 2025 capacity .
Estimate comparison unavailable: S&P Global consensus data for Q4 2024 (EPS/Revenue) could not be retrieved due to API limits; we therefore do not present beat/miss vs Street this quarter. If desired, we will refresh when access is restored.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Trade posted a record Q4 pretax income; CEO: “Trade had an excellent fourth quarter… higher-than-normal quality grain at good basis values… improved merchandising… good results in our premium ingredients business” .
Renewables delivered solid profitability with record Q4 production and lower controllable cost per gallon; CFO/CEO highlighted efficient operations despite softer crush margins .
Cash generation and balance sheet strength: “cash position of more than $560 million… long-term debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.8x… well below… 2.5x” .

What Went Wrong

Renewables down year-over-year: ethanol board crush margins fell $0.16/gallon and co-product values were lower; Renewables Q4 EBITDA declined to $40M vs $73M in Q4 2023 .
Gross profit declined modestly vs Q4 2023 (from $217.7M to $213.1M), as Renewables gross profit dropped ~$30M, partly offset by Trade and Nutrient & Industrial improvements .
Lower farmer engagement pressured ag supply chains; management flagged softer agriculture product lines and limited volatility impacting merchandising opportunities .

Financial Results

Headline metrics – quarterly trajectory

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$2.80	$2.62	$3.12
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$175.4	$177.1	$213.1
Gross Profit Margin (%)	6.3% (=175,371/2,795,205)	6.8% (=177,125/2,620,988)	6.8% (=213,110/3,123,138)
Diluted EPS ($)	$1.05	$0.80	$1.31
Adjusted EPS ($)	$1.15	$0.72	$1.36
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$98.3	$97.4	$116.5

Note: S&P Global consensus estimates could not be retrieved due to access limits; we will update beat/miss comparisons when available.

Year-over-year – Q4 detail

Metric	Q4 2023	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$3.21	$3.12
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$217.7	$213.1
Diluted EPS ($)	$1.49	$1.31
Adjusted EPS ($)	$1.59	$1.36
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$135.1	$116.5

Segment breakdown – Q4 vs prior year

Segment	Sales ($MM)	Gross Profit ($MM)	Pretax Income Attrib. to Company ($MM)	Adjusted Pretax Income Attrib. ($MM)	Period
Trade	$2,222.8	$147.0	$52.8	$53.6	Q4 2024
Renewables	$714.0	$35.5	$16.0	$16.0	Q4 2024
Nutrient & Industrial	$186.4	$30.7	$3.5	$3.5	Q4 2024
Trade	$2,212.4	$126.1	$43.8	$47.0	Q4 2023
Renewables	$795.2	$65.3	$32.7	$32.7	Q4 2023
Nutrient & Industrial	$205.3	$26.4	$2.1	$2.1	Q4 2023

KPIs and cash/liquidity

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Cash from Ops before WC ($MM)	$88.8	$86.2	$99.9
Effective Tax Rate (%)	9% (Q2)	17% (Q3)	20% (Q4); 15% for 2024
Cash & Equivalents ($MM)	$530.4	$454.1	$561.8
Long-term Debt / Adjusted EBITDA (x)	~1.5x (Q3)	~1.5x (Q3 remark)	1.8x (FY)

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Run-rate EBITDA Target	Company	$475M by end-2025 (set Feb 2023; revised in Nov)	$475M by end-2026 (1-year delay)	Lowered/Delayed
Dividend per Share	Q4 2024 vs Q1–Q2 2025	$0.19 per share in Q4 2024	$0.195 per share in Q1 & Q2 2025	Raised (3%)
Segment Reporting	Starting Q1 2025	Three segments (Trade, Renewables, Nutrient & Industrial)	Two segments (Agribusiness + Renewables)	Structure changed
Port of Houston Export Facility	2025	Expansion announced; execution underway	Expansion progressing; will limit facility capacity in 2025	Operational constraint
Near-term Renewables Outlook	Q1–Q2 2025	Favorable margins supported by exports & basis (Q3 view)	Seasonally soft Q1 crush; hedged volumes; spring driving/export demand supportive in Q2	Mixed near-term, improving into Q2

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Ethanol margins & co-products	Q2: Margins improved on lower corn basis; co-product values lower . Q3: Favorable margins with lower corn basis; co-product values lower; record EBITDA .	Crush margins down $0.16/gal; co-product values lower; record Q4 production; hedged Q1 volumes .	Soft near-term, operationally resilient
Farmer engagement & merchandising	Q2: Farmer engagement slow; carry markets benefit assets . Q3: Engagement ramped pre-harvest; elevation margins strong .	Limited farmer engagement; Trade still strong on elevation/space income .	Mixed demand; asset-backed strength
Skyland Grain integration	Q3: $85M majority stake; expected $30–$40M EBITDA .	Integration progressing; ~$5–$10M EBITDA in Nov–Dec; 2025 $30–$40M intact .	Positive execution
Port Houston soybean meal	Q3: ~$70M investment; export capacity target .	Expansion progressing; capacity limited in 2025 .	Long-term growth, near-term constraint
Regulatory (IRA/45Q/45Z)	Q3: Run-rate EBITDA timeline delayed; focus on low CI ethanol .	Pursuing CI-reduction projects; await clarity; 45Q durable; 45Z likely through 2027 .	Constructive but uncertain
Renewable diesel feedstock	Q3: Volumes growing; margins compressed .	Trading activity improving post-45Z but cautious; tax credit modality uncertainty .	Gradual normalization

Management Commentary

CEO Bill Krueger: “We currently expect a significant increase in planted corn acres and continuing strong ethanol exports… Our mix of North American agribusiness and ethanol production assets along with our strength in merchandising, positions us well” .
CFO Brian Valentine: “Our long-term debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.8 times is still well below our stated target of 2.5 times… anticipate increased spending on… growth projects in 2025” .
CEO on Renewables resilience: “Maximizing… corn originations, co-product sales, and ethanol marketing… we can consistently have a strong performance even if board crush is not as strong” .
CEO on strategy: “We are actively pursuing investments aimed at reducing the carbon intensity of our ethanol production… including carbon sequestration/utilization and combined heat and power” .

Q&A Highlights

Carbon intensity investments: Management expects 45Q to remain and sees progress for 45Z through 2027; capital being deployed to prepare decisions once IRA clarity improves .
Agribusiness consolidation synergies: Combining Plant Nutrient with Trade to offer integrated solutions from producer to ethanol plant; expect efficiency and growth opportunities .
Tariffs/macro exposure: Domestic focus limits material impact; monitoring US–Canada/Mexico; current visibility suggests minimal 2025 earnings impact .
Skyland contribution: 2025 EBITDA target $30–$40M maintained; early contribution ~$5–$10M pre-synergies; teams executing well .
Renewable diesel feedstocks: Activity has picked up but remains cautious due to producer vs blender tax credit dynamics under 45Z .
Ethanol plant acquisitions: Criteria favor large-scale, efficient plants in advantaged corn origination and co-product markets; valuations for plants with CCS access elevated, requiring discipline .

Estimates Context

Street consensus via S&P Global for Q4 2024 EPS/Revenue was unavailable at time of analysis due to API access limits. We will update beat/miss vs consensus once access is restored.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Trade strength and asset-backed elevation/space income offset merchandising headwinds; positioning remains favorable with early, high-quality harvest and low basis levels. This supports near-term cash generation and earnings resilience .
Renewables profitability should trough seasonally in Q1 then improve into Q2 on spring driving and exports; hedging mitigates near-term margin softness; CI reduction projects provide optionality amid evolving IRA policy .
Balance sheet capacity and cash flow underpin growth: with $561.8M cash and 1.8x LT debt/adj. EBITDA, ANDE can fund Skyland integration, Port Houston expansion, and selective M&A (ethanol or adjacencies) .
Skyland integration is a 2025 catalyst: $30–$40M EBITDA target intact; cross-sell across agronomy and grain should accrue synergies, supporting Agribusiness segment transition .
Dividend growth signals confidence: Q1/Q2 2025 dividend raised to $0.195 (3% y/y), reflecting sustainable cash generation in lower-price ag cycles .
Watch regulatory/tax-credit developments (45Q/45Z) and basis trends: These drive medium-term margin outcomes for Renewables and feedstock trading; management is positioning assets and projects to benefit .
Near-term trading setup: Limited volatility tempers merchandising upside, but carry markets and asset footprint should continue to deliver “singles and doubles” until volatility returns .

Sources: Q4 2024 8-K and press release tables and narrative ; Q4 2024 earnings call transcript ; Q3 2024 8-K and call ; Q2 2024 8-K ; Dividend PRs ; Port Houston PR .

Andersons, Inc. (ANDE)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary