Executive Summary

Q4 delivered strong top-line and operating performance: revenue $4.15B (+23% YoY) on 6% organic growth; operating margin 26.3% (+320 bps YoY) and adjusted operating margin 33.3% (-50 bps YoY) as NFP scale and restructuring savings offset integration and amortization costs .
EPS metrics rose meaningfully: diluted EPS $3.28 (+33% YoY) and adjusted EPS $4.42 (+14% YoY), despite an FX drag of ~$0.07 on adjusted EPS in the quarter .
2025 framework introduced: mid‑single‑digit or greater organic growth, adjusted margin expansion (net +80–90 bps modeled components), strong adjusted EPS growth, double‑digit FCF growth; tax rate 19.5–20.5%; $1B buyback; target leverage 2.8x–3.0x by Q4’25; FX headwinds of ~$0.16 EPS in Q1 and ~$0.32 for FY25 at current rates .
Catalyst setup: clear multi‑year cash and margin playbook (ABS efficiencies, restructuring, NFP synergies), explicit 2025 guide detail (FX/tax/interest) and new segment transparency (Risk Capital/Human Capital) increase confidence in trajectory and estimate calibration; note the near‑term FX headwind on reported EPS and Q1 revenue .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Broad-based 6% organic growth in Q4 across solution lines; Commercial Risk +6% (NA core P&C and construction strong), Reinsurance +6% (STG and treaty), Health +5%, Wealth +8% .
- Operational leverage and ABS: Q4 operating margin expanded +320 bps; $40M restructuring savings in Q4 and $110M for FY’24; ABS retirements (~300 apps) and analytics (property/cyber/health analyzers) underpin margin expansion and win rates .
- NFP integration on track: producer retention strong; accretive to top line; $36M acquired EBITDA in 2024; 2025 pipeline healthy; $45–$60M acquired EBITDA expected in 2025 .
What Went Wrong
- Adjusted margin −50 bps YoY in Q4 to 33.3% due to higher integration costs and amortization from NFP despite higher revenue scale, reflecting mix headwinds vs prior-year comp .
- FX emerged as a material headwind: ~$0.07 adjusted EPS drag in Q4; guided ~$0.16 EPS headwind in Q1’25 and ~$0.32 for FY’25 if rates hold; ~($110M) Q1 and ~($96M) FY25 adjusted operating income impact .
- Cash conversion down YoY: Q4 cash from ops $1.20B (−5% YoY) and FCF $1.15B (−6% YoY); FY’24 CFO $3.04B (−12%) and FCF $2.82B (−11%) given higher taxes and restructuring/legal/transaction/integration payments .

Financial Results

Quarterly results vs prior year and prior quarters

Metric	Q4 2023	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($B)	$3.375	$3.760	$3.721	$4.147
Diluted EPS ($)	$2.47	$2.46	$1.57	$3.28
Adjusted EPS ($)	$3.89	$2.93	$2.72	$4.42
Operating Margin (%)	23.1%	17.4%	16.7%	26.3%
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)	33.8%	27.4%	24.6%	33.3%

Segment revenue (Q4’24 vs Q4’23)

Segment	Q4 2023 Revenue ($B)	Q4 2024 Revenue ($B)	YoY Change
Risk Capital	$2.238	$2.537	+13%
Human Capital	$1.140	$1.612	+41%
Eliminations	$(0.003)	$(0.002)	N/A

Solution-line Q4’24 organic growth

Solution Line	Organic Growth Q4 2024
Commercial Risk Solutions	6%
Reinsurance Solutions	6%
Health Solutions	5%
Wealth Solutions	8%

Select quarterly cash KPIs

KPI	Q4 2023	Q4 2024
Cash from Operations ($B)	$1.261	$1.200
Free Cash Flow ($B, Non‑GAAP)	$1.212	$1.145

Additional Q4 context: Weighted avg diluted shares 218.3M (vs 202.0M), reflecting NFP financing; repurchased 0.6M shares for ~$200M; FX reduced adjusted EPS by ~$0.07; effective tax rate 17.6% (adj. 16.7%) .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Organic revenue growth	FY 2025	n/a	Mid‑single‑digit or greater	New
Adjusted operating margin	FY 2025	n/a	Expansion; modeled net +80–90 bps (−20 bps 4 extra months NFP/+$30M OpEx synergies; −20 bps lower fiduciary investment income; +~85 bps restructuring; +35–45 bps operating leverage)	New detail
Adjusted EPS	FY 2025	n/a	Strong growth; FX headwind ≈$0.32 (2 pts) if rates hold	New
Free Cash Flow	FY 2025	Long‑term double‑digit CAGR (2023–26)	Double‑digit growth in 2025 (incl. >$300M from NFP)	New period‑specific
Tax rate (adj.)	FY 2025	n/a	19.5%–20.5%	New
Interest expense	Q1 2025	n/a	≈$205M	New
FX impact	Q1 2025 / FY 2025	n/a	≈$0.16 EPS / ≈$0.32 EPS headwind	New
Restructuring savings	FY 2025	$100M savings in 2024; $350M run‑rate by 2026	+$150M incremental savings in 2025	New detail
Share repurchases	FY 2025	~$1B in 2024 (executed)	~$1B planned in 2025	Maintained run‑rate
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	Q4 2025	2.8x–3.0x (reiterated from Q3)	2.8x–3.0x target reaffirmed	Maintained
Dividend	Q1 2025	n/a	$0.675/share, payable Feb 14, 2025	Declared

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2, Q3)	Current Period (Q4)	Trend
ABS/technology analyzers (property, cyber, health)	Emphasis on ABS scale, analytics enabling margin expansion and client wins in Q2/Q3	Continued roll‑out; ~300 apps retired; ABS underpinning retention, wins, and margins	Improving
NFP integration/synergies	Performing in line or better; mid‑single‑digit growth; M&A engine: $26M acquired EBITDA YTD Q3	On track; producer retention strong; $36M acquired EBITDA in 2024; $45–$60M targeted in 2025; $30M OpEx synergies in 2025; $8M revenue synergies in 2025	Improving
Reinsurance & ILS/cat bonds	Reinsurance +7% organic in Q3; growing cat bond activity; broad portfolio, not just property cat	Reinsurance +6% organic; ILS/cat bonds and STG contribute; modest rate headwind; overweight property context acknowledged	Broadening; market normalizing
Market/pricing & retention	Aggregate pricing flat; retention mid‑90s; M&A services modest tailwind	Net market impact ~flat; retention strengthening, back near historical in NA Commercial Risk	Stable to improving
FX/tax/interest headwinds	Higher interest expense post‑NFP in Q2/Q3; tax volatility by geography	Explicit FY25 EPS FX headwind; Q1 revenue/EPS FX headwind; tax guided 19.5–20.5%; Q1 interest ~$205M	Clearer guardrails
Health/Wealth demand & regulation	Double‑digit international Health growth; Wealth driven by pension de‑risking/regulatory	Health +5% organic; Wealth +8% organic; continued regulatory and PRT demand	Solid/stable

Management Commentary

“We generated 6% Organic revenue growth for the fourth quarter and full year… strong margins, double‑digit EPS growth, and $2.8 billion of free cash flow… executing our 3x3 Plan creates differentiation… We are well‑positioned to build on our momentum in 2025.” — Greg Case, CEO .
“Adjusted operating margin was 33.3%, expanding 140 bps relative to a ’23 baseline that includes NFP… We ended the year $10 million ahead of our restructuring plan… $40 million of savings in Q4, $110 million for full year ’24.” — Edmund Reese, CFO .
“Our 2025 guidance is mid‑single‑digit or greater organic revenue growth, adjusted margin expansion… strong adjusted EPS growth and double‑digit free cash flow growth… expected tax rate of 19.5% to 20.5%… approximately $205 million of interest expense in Q1 ’25.” — Edmund Reese, CFO .
“NFP… performing very well… integration is right on track… producer retention is strong… acquisition is driving top line growth… more confidence in our sales and cost synergy goals in 2025 and 2026.” — Greg Case; with integration examples from Eric Andersen .

Q&A Highlights

NFP trajectory and M&A engine: Leadership reinforced NFP’s outperformance vs case, strong producer retention, and a healthy pipeline; 2025 acquired EBITDA expected at $45–$60M; “independent and connected” strategy is attracting targets and talent .
Components of growth: New business contribution was robust (12 pts in Q4; 10 pts FY); retention mid‑90s and strengthening; net market impact ~0–2 pts in 2025 plan .
Reinsurance and ILS: ILS is a smaller part but a growth driver; broader reinsurance offerings beyond property cat; clients optimizing programs as pricing normalizes .
Margin playbook: 2025 modeled components (NFP timing/OpEx synergies, fiduciary income, restructuring, operating leverage) net to +80–90 bps; ABS efficiencies and restructuring sustain multi‑year expansion .
EPS/tax/FX clarity: “Strong adjusted EPS growth” in 2025 despite FX (~$0.32 headwind FY); tax rate range 19.5–20.5%; Q1 interest ~$205M; FX Q1 revenue headwind ~$110M .
Capital returns and leverage: $1B buyback planned in 2025; deleveraging on track to 2.8x–3.0x by Q4’25; potential for greater buybacks beyond 2025 once target leverage is achieved .

Estimates Context

We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for EPS and revenue to compare actuals vs Street; data was unavailable at query time due to provider rate limits. As a result, we cannot present beat/miss vs consensus for Q4’24 in this report. If helpful, we can refresh the S&P Global estimates and update the “vs. estimates” comparisons upon access restoration.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Aon enters 2025 with a detailed operating algorithm: mid‑single‑digit+ organic growth, net +80–90 bps adjusted margin expansion, strong adjusted EPS growth, double‑digit FCF growth, and disciplined capital returns ($1B buyback) .
ABS remains the structural margin and growth engine (analytics + platform standardization) while restructuring savings create investment capacity and support ongoing operating leverage .
NFP contributes breadth (mid‑market expansion), pipeline (tuck‑ins), and synergies (OpEx and revenue) that should build through 2025–2026, with leverage falling to 2.8x–3.0x by Q4’25 .
FX will be a near‑term headwind to reported EPS and Q1 revenue; the company quantified impacts (Q1 ≈$0.16 EPS; FY ≈$0.32) and guided tax and interest, aiding model precision .
Segment re‑alignment (Risk Capital/Human Capital) and increased disclosure (including recast historicals in 10‑K) improve transparency for tracking margin expansion and growth vectors by platform .
Health and Wealth remain resilient demand pillars (cost inflation, PRT/regulatory), while reinsurance continues to broaden beyond property cat, with ILS as an incremental growth lever .
Watch catalysts: sustained ABS‑driven margin gains, realization of NFP synergies, trajectory of fiduciary investment income as rates evolve, and FX changes vs guided headwinds .

Appendix: Additional Data Points and Disclosures

Q4 FX headwind: ~$14M on adjusted net income and $0.07 per diluted adjusted EPS .
Share count: weighted avg diluted 218.3M; Q4 buyback 0.6M shares for ~$200M; ~$2.3B remaining authorization at 12/31/24 .
FY’24 revenue $15.70B (+17% YoY), adjusted EPS $15.60 (+10% YoY), FCF $2.82B (−11% YoY), adjusted operating margin 31.5% (−10 bps YoY) .
Dividend declared: $0.675 per share payable Feb 14, 2025 .

Citations:
All figures and commentary are sourced from Aon’s Q4’24 8‑K/press release and earnings call: ; Q4’24 press release (duplicate content) –; Q4’24 call transcript –; Q3’24 8‑K/press release –; Q3’24 call transcript –; Q2’24 8‑K/press release –; dividend PR .

Aon plc (AON)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary