FRE Margin Expansion

Q1 2025

0 to 150 basis points "

N/A

no current guidance

Net Realized Performance Income (European Style Funds)

Q1 2025

$225 million to $275 million "

N/A

no current guidance

2026 FRE Synergies from GCP Acquisition

Q1 2025

$245 million "

N/A

no current guidance

Fundraising for GCP

Q1 2025

Approximately $7 billion "

N/A

no current guidance

European Direct Lending Deployment

Q1 2025

Up 5% vs Q1 2021 and 20% YoY "

N/A

no current guidance

Effective Tax Rate

Q1 2025

8% to 12% "

N/A

no current guidance

FRE Margins

FY 2025

N/A

Expected to be consistent with the prior year " "

no prior guidance

Net Realized Performance Income

FY 2025

N/A

Over $500 million total (with about one‑third in FY 2025) "

no prior guidance

Deployment Timeline

FY 2025

N/A

Expected deployment closer to one year "

no prior guidance

Integration Costs

FY 2025

N/A

$6 million to $7 million per quarter "

no prior guidance

Robust Capital Deployment Pipeline

Consistently highlighted in Q1 2025 with steady pipeline size and diversified strategies ( " " " " " " ), in Q4 2024 with record deployment and broad-based execution ( " " " ), and in Q3 2024 with accelerated deal flow and global deployment ( " " " ).

Emphasized in Q2 2025 with strong fundraising results, a robust pipeline rebounding from an early‐quarter slowdown, and expanding opportunities into Q3 ( " " " ).

Consistently positive with temporary slowdown risks addressed by a strong rebound and further acceleration. " " "

Resilient Private Credit Performance

Featured in Q1 2025 with solid returns and some fee compression concerns ( " " ), in Q4 2024 with record activity and resilient performance ( " " " ), and in Q3 2024 with strong credit metrics and managed fee dynamics ( " " " ).

In Q2 2025, performance remains robust with emphasis on low loss rates and double-digit returns while acknowledging emerging fee compression risks with a firm stance against fee reductions ( " " ).

Steady and robust performance with persistent fee compression themes, managed through competitive positioning. " "

Wealth Management Distribution and AUM Expansion

In Q1 2025, distribution growth and new product launches with significant private wealth inflows were noted ( " " " ); Q4 2024 showcased tripled inflows and record equity raising ( " " ); Q3 2024 emphasized expanding partnerships and strong fundraising across platforms ( " " ).

Q2 2025 continues to highlight strong investments in distribution, increased international partnerships, record monthly equity raises, and low redemptions, reinforcing international growth ( " " " ).

Consistent and accelerating growth with expanding international focus and product innovation. " " "

GCP Integration Challenges Influencing Margin Pressure

Q1 2025 mentioned GCP’s modest drag on margins offset by expected synergies ( " " ); Q4 2024 noted anticipated new G&A expenses with margins aligning with existing business ( " ); Q3 2024 did not focus on margin challenges from GCP ( " " " ).

Q2 2025 details a temporary FRE margin compression (about 90bps drag) due to GCP integration costs, with clear cost efficiencies identified and expectations for gradual synergy realization ( " " " " ).

Increased emphasis on integration costs in Q2 with cautious optimism as synergies progress to offset temporary margin pressure. " " "

Dynamic FRE Margin Outlook (Expansion Potential vs. Compression Risks)

Q1 2025 set a target of 0–150bps expansion with offset factors ( " ); Q4 2024 elaborated on deployment-driven gains and upfront cost challenges ( " " " ); Q3 2024 expected modest margin expansion despite distribution fee pressures ( " " " " ).

Q2 2025 reiterates that despite temporary compression from GCP and market mix shifts, deployment strength and fundraising should maintain full-year FRE margins consistent with prior periods ( " " " ).

Steady outlook with consistent targets; short-term compression is acknowledged but offset by strategic growth factors. " " "

European Market Opportunities & Evolving Political/Geopolitical Risks

Q1 2025 described a softening of earlier political concerns with modest acceleration in deployment in Europe ( " ); Q4 2024 demonstrated improved market conditions with a recovery in asset values ( " ); Q3 2024 did not explicitly address political risks ( " ).

Q2 2025 emphasizes a shift in Europe with reduced explicit political concerns, favorable rate trajectories, increased fiscal spending, and robust fund demand making the region considerably more attractive ( " ).

A clear easing of earlier political/geopolitical worries coupled with enhanced capital flows, leading to a more positive European outlook. " "

Real Estate Transaction Activity as a Growth Catalyst

Q1 2025 noted the impact of tariffs and lower cost of capital spurring potential growth ( " ); Q4 2024 focused on asset value recovery and upcoming deployment opportunities ( " " " ); Q3 2024 reported strong deployment, strategic acquisitions, and notable fundraising in real estate ( " " ).

Q2 2025 highlights improving fundamentals with strong leasing and rent growth, plus the integration of GCP boosting data center development and a record global investment pipeline in real estate ( " ).

Continued robust growth with added catalyst from data center development and integration, reinforcing the strategic role of real estate. "

Strong Fundraising and Institutional Demand as a Consistent Driver

Q1 2025 reported record fundraising levels and strong institutional commitment ( " " " ); Q4 2024 marked quarterly and annual records with deep institutional support ( " " " ); Q3 2024 showcased strong capital raises across multiple strategies and channels ( " " " ).

Q2 2025 reiterates strong results with a record quarterly total (> $26B), substantial AUM growth, and resilient institutional demand even amid volatility ( " " ).

Persistent and robust fundraising momentum across channels, confirming institutional confidence and steady demand. " "

Emerging Technological Advancements Impacting Data Center Investment Thesis

Q1 2025 had minimal commentary aside from the launch of a Japan data center fund and excitement for growth ( " " " ); Q4 2024 provided in-depth discussion on AI, deep learning, and strategic location advantages ( " ); Q3 2024 briefly noted the growth of a global data center development pipeline ( " ).

Q2 2025 focuses on leveraging the GCP acquisition to enhance data center capabilities, emphasizing a robust pipeline, strategic partnerships with hyperscalers, and integrated financing opportunities for data center projects ( " " ).

Evolving emphasis from initial excitement to integrated execution, with technological trends continuing to drive strategic investments in data centers. " "

Macroeconomic and Cyclical Wealth Flow Risks Affecting Fee Generation

Q1 2025 provided detailed contrasts between institutional and retail behavior with cyclical concerns ( " ); Q4 2024 indirectly mentioned factors like gross-to-net deployment and fee waiver implications ( " " " ); Q3 2024 discussed rate impacts and offsetting mechanisms for fee generation ( " ).

Q2 2025 does not explicitly focus on this topic but acknowledges market volatility, temporary slowdowns, and FRE margin impacts related to deployment trends and GCP integration, indirectly addressing cyclical risks ( " " " ).

A persistent concern with nuanced discussion in earlier calls; Q2 underscores resilience despite macro challenges, with less explicit focus compared to Q1/Q3. " " "

Introduction of Secondaries in Asset Deployment Strategies

Q1 2025 underscored a shift to balanced LP-led and GP-led transactions along with expanding alternative asset exposure ( " ); Q4 2024 noted significant year-over-year growth and contribution to record all-assets deployment ( " ); Q3 2024 featured launches of new secondaries products and scaling of existing strategies with strong fundraising milestones ( " " ).

Q2 2025 highlights robust growth in the secondaries segment with billions raised across credit and private equity secondaries, reflecting nearly doubled FRE and significant AUM increases ( " ).

Strong and growing emphasis on secondaries as a key component of asset deployment, with expanding product offerings and robust fundraising across vintages. " "