Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

I'd like to remind everyone that today's call and webcast are being recorded. Please note that they are the property of Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc., and that any unauthorized broadcast in any form is strictly prohibited. Information about the audio replay of this call is available in our earnings press release. I'd also like to call your attention to the customary Safe Harbor disclosure in our press release regarding forward-looking statements. Today's conference call and webcast may include forward-looking statements and projections, and we ask that you refer to our most recent filings with the SEC for important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements and projections. In addition, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP measures on this call, which management believes are relevant to assessing the company's financial performance.

These measures are reconciled to GAAP figures in our earnings presentation, which is available in the Stockholders section of our website. We do not undertake any obligation to update our forward-looking statements or projections unless required by law. To obtain copies of our latest SEC filings, please visit our website at www.apollocref.com or call us at 212-515-3200. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to the company's Chief Executive Officer, Stuart Rothstein.

Stuart Rothstein (President & CEO)

Good morning, and thank you for joining us on the Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. third quarter 2023 earnings call. I am joined today by Chief Investment Officer, Scott Weiner, and Anastasia Mironova, ARI's Chief Financial Officer. ARI had another quarter of distributable earnings in excess of the common stock dividend, benefiting from elevated base rates in the company's $8 billion floating rate loan portfolio. For the first nine months of 2023, ARI reported distributable earnings prior to net realized loss on investments and realized gain on extinguishment of debt of $1.33, resulting in a dividend per share coverage ratio of approximately 1.3 times. The higher rate environment continues to impact all aspects of the real estate market. For most of the year, the dialogue has focused on the Fed's use of short-term rate hikes to reduce the rate of inflation.

However, more notable today is the recent sharp increase in five-year and ten-year Treasury rates. Over the past several weeks, the ten-year Treasury has neared 5%, and since ARI's Q1 earnings call, the yield on five-year and ten-year Treasuries has risen 139 and 126 basis points, respectively. While the market is still adjusting to this quick move upwards in longer rates, the historical relationship between cap rates and long-term interest rates would indicate that property values are biased towards adjusting downward in light of the elevated interest rate environment. In addition to rates, uncertainty with respect to the short and medium-term trajectory of the economy is also weighing on valuations. Recent earnings reports from bellwether companies have been mixed. The employment market remains robust, and the Q3 GDP print was actually quite strong.

However, there have been multiple other measures of economic activity that indicate the economy is, in fact, slowing. As such, the narrative around commercial real estate remains focused on underlying property valuations, borrowers' ability to refinance, and the potential impact on property-level operating performance, if, in fact, the economy is slowing and moving towards a potential recession. While the debate within the industry on these topics continues, the general sentiment around the industry remains bearish. Until such time that rates are perceived as somewhat stable and valuations adjust accordingly, we expect that transaction volumes will still stay well below prior levels. In light of this backdrop, ARI's strategy and focus have remained consistent throughout 2023, with an emphasis on active balance sheet and asset management. Year to date, ARI has received $1 billion from loan repayments, including $286 million in the third quarter.

Of the $1 billion, approximately $520 million was from the full repayment of 8 loans in the portfolio, $140 million came from asset sales, and the remainder mostly reflects partial paydowns from borrowers in exchange for extensions in loan term. We continue to have a productive dialogue with our borrowers, many of whom are some of the largest and most well-capitalized real estate sponsors in the world. Their willingness and ability to support their properties has led to constructive conversations for loan modifications and extensions. Importantly, we have dealt with the near-term maturities in our office loan portfolio with no significant office maturity until 2025.

As a reminder, office loans make up only 19% of ARI's portfolio, with more than half the loans secured by properties in Europe, where we are seeing better operating fundamentals across the asset class. Beyond office exposure, the credit quality of ARI's portfolio remains stable, and during the quarter, ARI did not record any incremental asset-specific CECL reserves. With respect to the Steinway Project, during the quarter, ARI received $45 million from condo sales. At present, there are additional units under contract that we expect will close in the coming months. More importantly, there is an active dialogue, including contract negotiation on another handful of units and consistent foot traffic on a weekly basis. While there is still much to be done, we are encouraged by the recent level of interest and activity.

Shifting to the right side of the company's balance sheet, in October, ARI utilized on-hand liquidity to repay the remaining $176 million of principal of the convertible notes that matured at par. ARI ended the quarter with approximately $480 million of total liquidity, which we believe provides ample cushion to manage a range of economic outcomes in the broader macro landscape, as well as have dry powder to capitalize on interesting or unique opportunities that ARI has the benefit of seeing as part of the broader Apollo platform. With that, I will turn the call over to Anastasia to review our financial results.

Anastasia Mironova (CFO)

Thank you, Stuart, and good morning, everyone. ARI produced another consistent quarter of financial results in Q3, with distributable earnings of $52.7 million, or $0.37 per share. We declared a common stock dividend of $0.35 per share, which translates to an annualized dividend yield of approximately 15%, using yesterday's closing price. GAAP net income available to common stockholders was $43 million, or $0.30 per diluted share of common stock. ARI's portfolio ended the quarter with an amortized cost basis of $8 billion and a weighted average unlevered yield of 8.9%. During the quarter, we funded $97 million of add-on fundings from previously closed loans and received $286 million in loan repayments, including $170 million of full repayments across 4 transactions. There was no incremental specific CECL allowance taken during the quarter.

General CECL allowance declined by $5.8 million and stands at 40 basis points of the loan portfolio's amortized cost basis as of September 30. The decrease in the general CECL allowance is primarily attributable to loan repayment activity outpacing fundings and overall portfolio seasoning. Our total CECL allowance as of September 30 is at 274 basis points of the loan portfolio's amortized cost basis, a 4 basis points increase compared to June 30. ARI's book value per share, excluding general CECL reserves and depreciation, was $14.74, relatively flat to last quarter end. With respect to ARI's borrowings, we're in compliance with all covenants and continue to maintain strong liquidity. As Stuart mentioned, ARI repaid the $176 million of convertible notes that came due in October with cash on hand.

With this repayment, our next corporate debt maturity is not until 2026. At the end of the quarter, we had $805 million of unencumbered real estate assets and $480 million of total liquidity. Total liquidity comprised of cash on hand, cash proceeds held by the servicer, and undrawn credit capacity on existing facilities. Our debt-to-equity ratio at quarter end was 2.8 times. And with that, we would like to open the line for questions. Operator, please go ahead.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. One moment for questions. Our first question comes from Sarah Barcomb with BTIG. You may proceed.

Sarah Barcomb (Vice President, Commercial Mortgage REITs Analyst)

Hey, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. I was hoping you could talk about the opportunity set that's out there, you know, to put money to work, given liquidity is looking good. There weren't meaningful risk migrations during the quarter, you know, maybe opportunities in your own capital structure or, or in the new loan origination markets?

Stuart Rothstein (President & CEO)

Yeah, look, I would say, Sarah, to be fair, over the last four weeks, ±, I would say we've in earnest started looking at opportunities that might work for ARI and are actually sort of actively thinking about things for ARI. I would say at a high level, as we think about opportunities for ARI today, I think there are things, broadly speaking, in the U.S. that would be sort of in the SOFR + 4 to mid-4s range in property types. You know, there's industrial, there's hotel, some construction maybe, though not likely, and certainly no office exposure. I would say similar type of opportunities potentially in Europe. You know, as a firm. You know, broadly speaking, year-to-date, we've probably done close to $6.5 billion-$7 billion worth of commitments.

So we're in the market on a daily basis and certainly have a sense of where things are available to us. And I would say the change over the last four weeks or so have been less about what's taking place in terms of opportunities and us, you know, getting a little bit more comfortable in terms of where we are, both in terms of the existing portfolio and the liquidity profile on a go-forward basis.

Sarah Barcomb (Vice President, Commercial Mortgage REITs Analyst)

Okay, thank you. And then, we'll, you know, we'll see what happens at the Fed meeting this week. But, you know, currently, the forward curve is calling for a bit of a pivot in the first half of next year. I'm just curious how your outlook for those 1-3 rated assets, you know, the stronger credits in your portfolio. How does your outlook for those change, if we are in the higher for longer camp and we see SOFR stay at these levels for longer next year?

Stuart Rothstein (President & CEO)

Yeah, I mean, I think, I think as we think about the world, it's almost in some respects, less about the shorter end of the curve and more about some stability at the longer end of the curve. If you think about this year, during the first half of this year, you know, there was a pretty robust fixed rate financing market around 6% when the five-year was lower than it is today, and people felt like things had sort of were range-bound in some respects. That shifted a bit, given the move upward in the, you know, call it the medium to long end of the curve.

I think from our perspective, as I think about transaction activity, capital coming back into the market, people getting more confident around what cap rates or valuations may be, it's more about some level of confidence that the 5- to 10-year is somewhat range-bound, and then people can start underwriting valuations around those levels and think about what financings are at those levels. So, you know, not to dismiss what the, you know, impact of a Fed move may or may not be on the sort of the short-term volatility in the market. I think what the market is actually looking for from a real estate perspective, is some sense that rates are sort of on the 5- to 10-year level, range-bound, and then people can start looking to historical relationships between cap rates and 5 and 10 year treasuries as they think about value.

Sarah Barcomb (Vice President, Commercial Mortgage REITs Analyst)

Thanks for the comments.

Stuart Rothstein (President & CEO)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Steven Laws with Raymond James. You may proceed.

Stephen Laws (Managing Director, Mortgage REITs Analyst)

Hi, good morning. Appreciate the breakout on the office metrics, and Stuart, your comments about the, you know, over half your exposures in Europe. Can you spend some time talking about the difference in the two markets, kind of at a higher level, but also maybe the difference within your portfolio? Is it lower attachment points in Europe? Is it, you know, something different, you know, inside the loan, outside of just the larger macro environment around, you know, better work and office trends in Europe?

Stuart Rothstein (President & CEO)

Yeah, look, I think the high-level comment or the obviously the biggest factor from our perspective is obviously just the use case for office space in Europe versus the U.S., right? There's not the same debate in Europe in terms of return to office that we've experienced here in certain markets in the U.S. I think the other thing I would say about Europe is that, unlike the U.S., where there is clearly a transition going on between what we would traditionally call the legacy gateway city markets to other markets that may be more in favor long term due to cost of living, tax policy, et cetera. I think, you know, the markets in Europe are still the markets in Europe that we're sort of are the bellwether markets. We've tended to stick to the major markets in Western Europe.

And then I think the other thing that is relevant in Europe that really impacts the viability of an asset, and furthers the need for more modern assets, is the much more serious impact of ESG around leasing concerns, financing concerns, equity concerns in Europe than exists here in the U.S.

Stephen Laws (Managing Director, Mortgage REITs Analyst)

Appreciate those comments. And as a follow-up, I wanted to switch over to the REO assets. Can you talk about the, you know, outlook for those from, you know, both the timing of potential resolutions, but also, you know, seasonality and how we should expect to see any seasonal impacts in the coming quarters?

Stuart Rothstein (President & CEO)

Yeah. So, you know, start with the DC hotel. As you've heard me say on prior earnings calls, the performance of the hotel for this year has well exceeded expectations, and the hotel is performing at levels in excess of where it was performing pre-pandemic. We continue to remain optimistic about the performance of the hotel looking out to next year as we start to go through the budgeting cycle and forecasting cycle for next year. That being said, you know, there's certainly some seasonality component around the hotel. Obviously, right now we're at, you know, one of the slower periods of the hotel. There'll obviously be a pickup around holiday, holiday time, you know.

Then you'll get a slowdown in the early part of next year, and then it will ramp through the spring and summer tourist season, but very encouraged by the performance of the D.C. hotel. I would say the Atlanta hotel performance has improved, but it is not improved at the same rate as we're seeing in the D.C. hotel. I think, as you all know from my past comments, that is a hotel that historically was a little bit more based on business as well as convention traffic flow. That being said, you know, we have continued to remain in dialogue with a couple of potential parties around the sale of the hotel.

Certainly, no guarantees that a sale of the hotel occurs, but I would say the dialogue we're having around the hotel certainly gives us confidence with respect to where the hotel is marked in our portfolio at this point. And then, obviously, the only other REO asset is the development in Brooklyn, which continues apace, but that will be a, you know, multi-year process to get that hotel built and then leased up. But it is, you know, moving along nicely at this point.

Stephen Laws (Managing Director, Mortgage REITs Analyst)

Great. Appreciate the comments this morning, Stuart.

Stuart Rothstein (President & CEO)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Rick Shane with JP Morgan. You may proceed.

Rick Shane (Analyst)

Thanks for taking my questions this morning, everybody. A couple things. Obviously, you know, good progress on the liquidity side, paid down the converts, repayments, solid this quarter. You know, Sarah's first question was regarding the opportunity to deploy capital, into new assets. When I look at the discount to book value and the, yields that you're describing in terms of new opportunities, SOFR plus 4%, I'm curious, doesn't it make more sense to buy back stock, given the economic return on that, both from a dividend perspective and also, from a book value creation perspective?

Stuart Rothstein (President & CEO)

Yeah, look, it's. I think you and I have talked about this several quarters back, Rick. It's always on our radar screen, and it's always something we think about. I think we do have, you know, countervailing concerns around, at some point, with respect to shrinking the company and what that affords us in terms of the right capital structure on a go-forward basis, is always part of the analysis. But yes, we, you know. I should have responded to Sarah's comment, you know. In addition to looking at new opportunities for ARI, we certainly also, you know, follow closely what's going on with the common stock and where it's trading, et cetera.

We're not likely to do anything in the other parts of the capital structure, to be honest with you, because we think we've got very attractive long-term, liabilities in place. But it's on the radar screen. There's a constant debate that we have, both internally and with our, board, around, you know, momentary buybacks versus long-term viability and investment in the business. And as a company that has, you know, bought a significant amount of stock back, in prior years, and we're probably the most active buyer of our stock during the pandemic, it certainly could be the right moment in time trade. But, you know, past experience would indicate, it doesn't really do much for the business long term, and whatever effects it may or may not have on the stock, are somewhat fleeting.

But we certainly think about it vis-à-vis putting new dollars out as a way to protect book value, and also as a right economic decision. So it's definitely on the radar screen.

Scott Weiner (CIO)

It's just, Scott, I would also add to clarify, you know, when we're talking about, you know, Stuart referenced the SOFR or the plus 400, that's on an unlevered basis. The loan-level financing is readily available today. So as we're looking at deals, we're solving for, I would say, a mid-teen levered IRR. So not just, you know, doing unlevered loans at plus four hundred.

Stuart Rothstein (President & CEO)

Good point, Scott.

Rick Shane (Analyst)

Understood. Thank you. I guess, if or when you start buying back stock, I'll have to think of a second question. So I don't know if that'll enter into your calculus at all or not. Second thing I did want to ask this quarter was: Were there any repurchases from the CLO that we should be aware of?

Stuart Rothstein (President & CEO)

We don't have a CLO.

Rick Shane (Analyst)

For the secured financing, I apologize.

Stuart Rothstein (President & CEO)

Not on our part, no.

Rick Shane (Analyst)

Okay. Thank you.

Stuart Rothstein (President & CEO)

Sure.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one, one on your telephone. Our next question comes from Jade Rahmani with KBW. You may proceed.

Jade Rahmani (Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you very much. Wanted to ask about your broader credit view across all the pools of capital that you oversee and manage. Would you characterize the third quarter as stable? Or, did you see pockets of pressure? And more importantly, what would be your outlook in the fourth quarter and for next year?

Stuart Rothstein (President & CEO)

Are you talking, Jay, just to clarify, are you talking about appetite to continue to put dollars out across the portfolio, or more about credit performance of what we've got outstanding already?

Jade Rahmani (Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst)

Credit performance of what's outstanding already, and if you could talk to ARI's portfolio, as well as more broadly, you know, across all the pools of capital that you oversee?

Scott Weiner (CIO)

Yeah. Hey, Jay, it's Scott. Look, I would say, you know, it obviously depends on property type and geography, but I would say we would continue to see the fundamentals, you know, being strong. Again, I'll exclude office, but whether you're looking at multifamily, retail, self-storage, industrial, you continue to see, you know, I would say even improving NOI. You know, has it slowed down? You know, absolutely. You know, in particular, certain, you know, multifamily markets, you know, like Sunbelt, which I think is well-publicized in the REIT portfolio. But I would say the fundamentals, you know, continue to be strong.

I would also say, you know, given our, you know, the office portfolio that we have across our different vehicles tends to be more Class A, ESG. You know, we have seen some positive on. We've also seen leasing getting done, you know, where spec suites are built out and tenants want that. So I would say, you know, overall, you know, generally positive on the fundamentals. You know, clearly, the rise in the long-term interest rate in the ten-year, you know, is not necessarily helping people's, you know, long-term view of value. So, you know, I would say, you know, investors and borrowers continue to kind of make decisions on where to allocate their capital.

But, you know, we do continue to see sponsors putting capital into their deals, paying down debt. Literally just got off a phone call on a deal where, not an ARI deal, where the sponsor is looking for an extension and willing to commit capital, you know, on a property. So I would say overall, not much has changed over the past, you know, over the past quarter. It just continues to be a lot of blocking and tackling. I would say the one change on interest rates is that there was definitely a lot of people looking to do five-year fixed rate borrowing, just given the delta between fixed rate borrowing and floating.

You know, as that five-year fixed rate has gone up, it's less of a delta, so I think you're starting to see people go back more to floating than fixed, given the hope by borrowers that rates come down in the near term, as opposed to locking in for that five-year fixed rate. But continues to be a robust pipeline on financings, including acquisitions. I mean, there continues to be so and way, way down, but the market there is still acquisitions across property types.

Jade Rahmani (Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you very much. Just to focus on Europe for a second, I think some of the banks and funds that take valuation marks in Europe, because of the accounting standards there, IFRS accounting, there's been more of a mark to market and more of a willingness to take write-downs or valuation adjustments. Do you think that is merely an accounting phenomenon reflecting the impact of rates, or are you starting to see pockets of weakness in Europe as well?

Scott Weiner (CIO)

I mean, look, values are down, right? Whether in the U.S. or Europe, I mean, I think that's indisputable. I think, you know, you obviously wrote on U.S. banks, too. I think U.S. banks, insurance companies are taking marks. There's obviously, you know, a difference, right? If we made a 50% levered loan and values down 20% or 30%, you know, we're still not impaired. But clearly, you know, values are down, so I'm not sure, you know, the accounting is driving that. I'm not sure.

But you know, I would say to Stuart's earlier point, we do see more liquidity in office in particular, we do see more liquidity in the office market in Europe in terms of buying and selling. There's been a bunch of trades in London of late. I think there's some stuff going on in Milan. So I would say, you know, again, way down from historical, but there is more activity in the European office market, which again is kind of confirming values being down.

Jade Rahmani (Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst)

Turning to ARI, something I've been tracking closely is cash flow from operations, and ARI had very strong results, both in the quarter as well as year to date. Relative to the dividend, there's significant coverage. Do you think that has implications for 2024 and the sustainability of the dividend, or would you hold off on making that conclusion?

Stuart Rothstein (President & CEO)

I mean, I think at this point, as we've indicated, we're obviously very comfortable with the dividend for this year. I would say, given our, you know, initial forecasting for next year, you know, the goal is always to keep the dividend at a level that is consistent from quarter to quarter and covered by earnings. We will continue to forecast for next year, but sitting here today, we're certainly expecting a general level of consistency for the dividend.

Jade Rahmani (Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you for taking the questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Stuart Rothstein for any closing remarks.

Stuart Rothstein (President & CEO)

Thank you, operator, and thanks to those of you that participated this morning.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.